Group 1 - New consumption concept stocks are generally active, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Mixue Group (+7.29% to HKD 423.8), Laopu Gold (+5.02% to HKD 691), Guoquan (+5.09% to HKD 3.51), and Pop Mart (+3.89% to HKD 200.4) [1] - Recent policies related to consumption have been frequently released, with the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the construction of a strong domestic market as a key task for economic work in the coming year [1] - An article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights the strategic significance of expanding domestic demand, underscoring its foundational support for overall development [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that the investment sentiment in new consumption will transition from enthusiasm to caution by 2025, with continued policy support in 2026 expected to boost consumer confidence [2] - The new consumption industry is anticipated to evolve towards three trends: health-oriented consumption, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption, alongside two dimensions: intelligence and overseas consumption [2] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that can establish solid business models and sustainable profit structures in the new consumption sector [2]

摩根士丹利日前发布的研报认为，吴越加入泡泡玛特董事会意味着公司过去两年的成功为发展新业务赢得了更多资源，也意味着公司旗下IP在时尚和娱乐领 域获得了高度认可，这增强了其对于泡泡玛特有能力部署具有影响力的营销和产品资源的信心。 泡泡玛特(9992.HK)盘初快速拉升，目前涨超4%股价重回200港元，总市值2696.6亿港元。消息上，泡泡玛特Crybaby特展上海站将于2025年12月20日至2026 年1月25日在上海西岸梦中心梦工场举行。 国金证券指出，此次特展不仅有适合打卡分享的大型装置艺术，还设有需线上抢购后到店取限量商品和限量周边，有望吸引多样化的人群参展并分享。不仅 拓展了泡泡玛特除商品销售以外的变现手段（展览门票收入），更有望通过参展人员在社交媒体平台的自发打卡分享实现信息传播裂变，保持品牌的"在场 感"的同时增加信息"触点"，通过成熟且多样化的运营手段延长IP生命周期、提高IP高度。 ...

Group 1: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi Group has launched the MiMo-V2-Flash model, optimizing inference costs and speed, and accelerating the implementation of AI in the physical world across various scenarios including mobile, IoT, and automotive [1][2] - The MiMo model serves as an AI ecosystem entry point, with Xiaomi being the only company to establish a comprehensive ecosystem integrating mobile, automotive, and home [2] - The performance and cost-effectiveness of the MiMo-V2-Flash model are highlighted, with innovations in structure and post-training paradigms enhancing model inference and agent capabilities [2] Group 2: Bubble Mart - The Crybaby exhibition by Bubble Mart will take place in Shanghai from December 20, 2025, to January 25, 2026, with ticket prices set at 109 yuan for regular and 258 yuan for VIP [3] - The exhibition aims to extend the IP lifecycle through ticket sales and social media engagement, enhancing brand presence and increasing touchpoints [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The pet food and supplies sector is seeing growth, with Petty's New Zealand factory products expected to launch in Q1 2026, potentially improving performance after previous capacity constraints [4] - The silver economy is being supported by a new action plan from various health authorities aimed at enhancing elderly care services [4] - The AI and 3D printing sector is experiencing significant growth, with exports increasing by 89% in quantity and 136% in value year-on-year, indicating a robust industry outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption concept stocks have collectively risen, with significant gains observed in companies like Mixue Group, Lao Pu Gold, and Blukoo, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Mixue Group (02097) saw a price increase of 4.86%, reaching 414.20 [2][6]. - Blukoo (00325) experienced a rise of 4.26%, with a latest price of 72.20 [2][6]. - Lao Pu Gold (06181) increased by 4.10%, with its stock priced at 685.00 [2][6]. - Other notable performers include Pop Mart (09992) up 3.53% at 199.70, and Wei Long Delicious (09985) up 3.13% at 11.55 [2][6]. Group 2: Company Developments - Mixue Ice City officially opened a store in Hollywood, Los Angeles, on December 20, featuring affordable products like $1.19 ice cream and a localized menu to attract local consumers [2][6]. - The company's international expansion has reached 13 countries, indicating a growing global presence [2][6].

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and IP (Intellectual Property) Management Key Points and Arguments Business Performance - **2023 H2 Turning Point**: Pop Mart experienced an upward turning point in business performance in the second half of 2023, with successful market expansion into Southeast Asia in 2024 and North America in the first half of 2025 [2][5] - **Core IP Growth**: The core IP, Labubu, has seen significant growth, contributing to stock price increases [2][6] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Despite an increase in supply from scalpers, stores in China remain generally out of stock, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [2][7] Market Concerns - **North America Market Worries**: Concerns exist regarding the North American market due to pessimistic guidance from companies like Sea of Treasure, Mattel, and Disney for 2026, leading to stock price adjustments. However, North America only accounts for about 20% of revenue, and data has stabilized in the second half of the year [2][8] - **China Market Confidence**: Strong confidence in the Chinese market, with expectations of adding approximately 10 new stores in 2026 and e-commerce growth projected at 22%-30% [2][9] Expansion Plans - **Store Expansion**: Plans to open around 20 new stores in the Asia-Pacific region, 30 in North America, and 20-25 in Europe, with overall performance expected to maintain around 18 billion [2][9] - **Future Development Logic**: Focus on deepening offline operations and continuous overseas expansion, with a rapid store opening pace in North America and significant potential in Europe, Japan, and the Middle East [2][10] Product and Innovation Strategy - **Supply Logic**: The company employs a "70% full" supply logic to prevent inventory issues and extend product life cycles, with a controlled frequency of new product releases [5][15] - **Platform Capability**: Pop Mart's platform capability is a core competitive advantage, allowing for the continuous creation of long-lasting IP and the development of multiple tiers of IP [4][16] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: The company is in a multi-category and multi-IP expansion phase, with a stable foundation despite potential declines in single-store performance. Long-term valuation is expected to reach 20-25 times compared to traditional toy companies [2][17][18] Additional Insights - **IP Heat in Global Markets**: Analysis shows a balanced IP structure in Southeast Asia, while the popularity of Labubu has stabilized in the US, UK, and France. Japan relies heavily on Labubu's popularity [2][14] - **Theme Park Developments**: The company is progressing with theme park projects, which are expected to enhance emotional connections with consumers [4][13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's current performance, market dynamics, expansion strategies, and future outlook in the toy and IP industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, with multiple policies aimed at boosting consumption being introduced. The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a strong domestic market and specific measures to stimulate consumption [4] - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new phase in China's high-level opening-up, with significant increases in flight bookings to Hainan, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [4] - The report notes a robust growth in the beauty and skincare sector, with top brands maintaining their positions and new domestic brands showing significant growth, reflecting changing consumer preferences among younger generations [5][17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase of 6.66% in the retail index from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [8] - The beauty and personal care sector increased by 2.87% during the same period [8] Policy Developments - The central government has introduced various measures to enhance service consumption, including promotional activities and optimizing service availability to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - A joint notification from multiple government departments aims to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption in key areas [4] Market Trends - In the beauty and skincare market, the top five brands include Proya, L'Oreal, Han Shu, Lancôme, and Estée Lauder, with domestic brands like Proya showing strong performance [5] - The report highlights a significant increase in sales for Hainan's duty-free shops, with a 90% year-on-year growth on the first day of the free trade port's operation [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty and skincare, traditional gold jewelry brands favored by younger consumers, and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage [17]

Group 1 - The article highlights the rise of non-human entities as popular cultural icons in 2025, reflecting a desire for rebellion and authenticity among the youth [1] - LABUBU, a character that transitioned from a toy to a social currency, gained significant attention, with a notable auction price of 1.08 million yuan for a rare piece, boosting its parent company's stock to a historical high [2][5] - The mascots "Xiyangyang" and "Lerongrong" from the 15th National Games became popular not just for their cute design but for their dynamic performances, which resonated with the audience and sold out related merchandise [6][8] Group 2 - The film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monsters" resonated with audiences, grossing over 1.717 billion yuan by portraying the struggles of ordinary people in a competitive society, serving as a form of escapism for viewers [10][12] - The character "Snow King" from the brand Mixue Ice City became a viral sensation in Jiangnan, symbolizing a simple joy and low-cost entertainment, which appealed to consumers [14] - The "Sweeping Leg Dance" went viral in 2025, reflecting a collective desire for low-barrier entertainment that fosters a sense of belonging in a fragmented media landscape [15][17] Group 3 - The international gold price surged by approximately 57% by the end of November 2025, marking one of the best years for gold in decades, as it became a trendy investment choice among young people seeking security [18][20] - The popularity of gold reflects a broader societal need for safety and stability amid uncertain global conditions, positioning it as a preferred asset for younger generations [20] Group 4 - The rise of figures like "Wei Dongyi," a mathematics professor, illustrates a cultural shift towards valuing authenticity and focus, as he became a symbol of purity and dedication amidst societal pressures [21][25] - "Dan Yichun," dubbed the "00s Wang Fei," gained fame for her unconventional music style, appealing to a generation that values creativity and authenticity over traditional norms [26][28] - "Wu Yanni," a track and field athlete, represents a challenge to societal expectations, showcasing individuality and self-assertion in a competitive environment [29][32] - "Zhou Yutong" became a relatable figure for many workers, embodying the frustrations of modern employment through a viral expression of exasperation [33][35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in Pop Mart's stock price has led to public discussions about potential stock buybacks by the company's founder and CEO, Wang Ning [1][2]. Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price reached a historical high of 339.80 HKD per share in August, driven by the popularity of its Labubu toy series, which sold out multiple times [1][2]. - Following the emergence of numerous counterfeit products, Pop Mart's stock price has dropped to 192.90 HKD per share, representing a decline of over 43.23% from its peak [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The plush toy industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by emotional value and social attributes, with the market expected to reach 241 billion yuan by 2028 from 143 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The plush toy market in China is projected to grow from 143 billion yuan in 2024 to 241 billion yuan by 2028 [3]. - The global plush toy market is expected to exceed 10 billion USD in 2024, with an annual growth rate of approximately 15% [8]. - The number of registered plush toy-related companies in China has remained above 1,000 annually from 2015 to 2024, with a notable increase to 1,483 companies in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 16% [8]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The popularity of plush toys is evident on social media platforms, with "plush toys" related topics garnering 22.1 billion views on Xiaohongshu and 180.1 billion views on Douyin [6]. - Star IP-derived plush toys are highly favored, with products like the "卜卜" plush toy from the band Mayday selling over 100,000 units [14]. - The emotional connection and social symbolism of plush toys are becoming increasingly important, as they serve as a means for fans to express their identity and connect with others [14]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Bubble Mart reported a dramatic increase in revenue from plush products, rising from 446 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 6.139 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1,276.2% [11]. - The top-selling plush toys include various IP collaborations, with notable sales figures indicating strong consumer demand [7]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The integration of AI technology into plush toys is creating new interactive experiences, with the AI toy market in China expected to reach 24.6 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 29 billion yuan in 2025 [19]. - Major companies are launching AI plush toys that offer personalized interactions and emotional companionship, aligning with the trend of emotional consumption among younger demographics [22].

最后再分享一个方法论。网上值得学习的牛人很多，小红书，视频号，抖音也时不时刷到一些大神。你首先要分类，这是卖方还是买方。卖方尽量说对了， 准了才能被记住。买方总想着怎么才能不犯错，一旦错的话，净值掉下来，就回不去了。卖方不怕错，怕没影响力，而影响力来自"惊喜"。要有些惊世骇俗 的预言。错的话，反正他自己也没买没套牢，不碍事。过两天大家也忘了。如果预测特别夸张还准了，大家会牢记。买方，做对的不会被记住，做错的话， 月底的净值就体现出来。就像画家毕加索说过："当艺术评论家聚在一起的时候，他们会讨论范式、架构和涵义。而艺术家聚在一起的时候，他们会聊在哪 儿能买到便宜的松节油。"总结是卖方用来做参谋，重点看分析过程。买方用来当将军，重点参考结论。刘邦可以用萧何统筹粮饷，用张良运筹帷幄，但排 兵布阵，他独信韩信。 聊胜于无。笔者不像一些大牛能拿到国配，在公开组晃悠，打错了或错过了都没啥感觉了。所以当我说Pass是真懒得看了。 轻松健康乙头与顶头平权了，资金超纲的同学有点浪费。新的这几只如何？第一感是全怼一支，英汐智能。题材好，基石好，顶头需要1.1亿，大部分人往 顶头走的路上就耗尽了。一手金额1.2万，也算是地道。那其 ...