Core Viewpoint - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies in China are facing significant profit declines due to the ongoing drop in international oil prices, prompting a strategic shift towards comprehensive energy services including oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Petroleum, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [2]. - The combined net profit decrease exceeded 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, averaging a loss of approximately 3.8 billion yuan per day [2]. - The average selling price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while China National Offshore Oil's average selling price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, impacting their oil and gas revenue [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - Despite the profit declines, the reduction in net profit for China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil was less severe than the drop in oil prices, attributed to effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [3]. - China National Offshore Oil's net production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [3]. Natural Gas Segment - The natural gas segment showed positive growth, with China National Offshore Oil's natural gas production increasing by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing overall production growth [3]. - The average price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, leading to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [3]. Downstream Business Impact - The downstream oil product sales and refining chemical businesses of China Petroleum and China Sinopec are facing challenges due to declining market demand and falling prices of key petroleum and petrochemical products [3][4]. Chemical Business Challenges - The chemical business is experiencing reduced profit margins due to the continuous release of new production capacity, with China Petroleum's chemical operations reporting a profit of 1.787 billion yuan, halving year-on-year, while China Sinopec's chemical sector faced a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% [4]. Strategic Shift Towards New Energy - In response to the pressures from new energy on traditional markets, the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are accelerating their non-oil business development [5]. - China Sinopec plans to focus on stabilizing oil, expanding gas, promoting hydrogen, increasing electricity, and strengthening services, aiming to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider [5]. - China Petroleum's president emphasized the construction of integrated energy stations and the integration of oil and gas exploration with new energy development [5].

Section I must be completed by a listed issuer where has been a charge in its issued shares or teasury shares which is disoloseable pursuant to rule 13.25A of the Rules Gov .isting of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong King Limited the "Exchange") (the "Main Board Rules") or rule 17.27A of the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on Exchange (the "GEM Rules"). | Section I | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. Class of shares | Ordinary shares | H Type of shares | | Listed ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國石油化工股份有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年10月31日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 1). | 其他 (請註明) | | % | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 見B部分 | | | | | | | | 變動日期 | 2025年10月31日 | | | | | | | 於下列日期結束時的結存 (註5及6) | 2025年10月31日 | 97,232,263,098 | 0 | | 97,232,263,098 | | | | B. 贖回/購回股份 (擬註銷但截至期終結存日期尚未註銷) (註5及6) | | | | | | 1). | ...

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector saw a slight increase of 0.12% on October 31, with Heshun Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Sector Performance - Heshun Petroleum (603353) closed at 21.58, up 5.58% with a trading volume of 97,600 shares and a transaction value of 211 million yuan [1] - Hengtong Co. (603223) closed at 9.91, up 3.77% with a trading volume of 101,000 shares and a transaction value of 98.88 million yuan [1] - International Long (000819) closed at 18.07, up 3.26% with a trading volume of 96,800 shares and a transaction value of 173 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Runbei Aerospace (001316) up 2.57%, Bohai Chemical (600800) up 1.86%, and Wanbangda (300055) up 1.68% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The refining and trading sector experienced a net inflow of 176 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 85.98 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flow included Guanghui Energy (600256) which saw a net outflow of 2.23% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is entering a downward cycle due to high costs and weak supply-demand dynamics, despite maintaining high capital expenditure and supply growth since the peak in 2021. However, there are "long-termist" companies capable of navigating through the cycle, providing substantial returns to investors through growth and dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced high capital expenditure and significant supply growth since the peak in 2021, but demand recovery remains relatively weak, leading to a high-cost and weak supply-demand environment [1]. - Long-termist companies in the chemical sector are characterized by strong shareholder backgrounds, excellent management capabilities, reasonable industry chain layouts, continuous R&D investment, and a strong sense of social responsibility, enabling them to achieve stable growth and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Sector - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditure and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [3]. - The domestic oil service companies are benefiting from high upstream capital expenditure, with improved operational quality and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]. Group 3: Refining and Chemical Fiber Industry - The refining and chemical fiber industry is anticipated to recover, with the refining expansion nearing completion and supply-demand dynamics expected to improve, leading to high-quality development in the sector [4]. - The polyester sector is seeing limited new capacity, with structural optimization accelerating, which is expected to enhance the market share and competitiveness of leading companies [4]. Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to a gradual easing of coal supply and demand, alongside a decline in coal prices. The transition towards modern coal chemical processes is seen as essential for traditional coal enterprises [5]. - The average prices for various coal types have decreased, with main coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite prices showing declines of -10.5%, -2.0%, and -16.0% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the upstream oil and gas sector and oil service companies, including China National Petroleum (601857.SH), Sinopec (600028.SH), CNOOC (600938.SH), and others [6]. - For the refining and chemical fiber sector, companies like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) are recommended due to their potential benefits from industry optimization and upgrades [7]. - In the coal chemical sector, companies such as Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) are highlighted for their expected improvement in profitability [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring cyclical leading companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) as demand recovers and supply-demand dynamics improve [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit for Q3, amounting to 8.3 billion RMB, which is 26% lower than the expectations of the research firm [1] Financial Performance - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to lower-than-expected profits from refining and sales operations [1] - The firm estimates a further 22% decline in Q4 earnings due to anticipated decreases in oil prices impacting exploration, refining, and sales profits [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised downwards by 12% to 14% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been reduced from 4.78 HKD to 4.21 HKD, while the target price for A-shares has been lowered from 6.46 RMB to 5.54 RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit for Q3, amounting to 8.3 billion RMB, which is 26% lower than expectations due to underperformance in refining and sales operations [1] Financial Performance - Q3 net profit decreased to 8.3 billion RMB, a 15% decline from the previous quarter [1] - The reported profit was 26% below the expectations set by the research firm [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The firm estimates a further 22% decline in Q4 earnings, primarily due to anticipated drops in oil prices affecting exploration, refining, and sales profits [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down by 12% to 14% [1] Investment Rating and Target Price - The firm maintains a "Hold" rating for Sinopec [1] - The target price for H-shares has been reduced from 4.78 HKD to 4.21 HKD [1] - The target price for A-shares has been lowered from 6.46 RMB to 5.54 RMB [1]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,283, down 0.2% for the day but up 31.0% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index increased by 36.2% YTD, despite a 0.2% decline on the last day [2] - The CSI 300 index showed a YTD increase of 19.7%, with a 0.8% drop on the last day [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices fell by 0.3% to $65 per barrel, down 9.9% YTD [3] - Gold prices rose by 2.4% to $4,025 per ounce, reflecting a significant YTD increase of 53.3% [3] - Copper prices increased by 1.3% to $11,184 per ton, with a YTD rise of 27.5% [3] Macro and Earnings Releases - The Core PCE Index in the US remained stable at 2.9% YoY as of October 31 [4] - US Personal Income increased by 0.4% MoM, consistent with expectations [4] - US Auto Sales were reported at an annualized rate of 16.4 million units, exceeding the consensus of 15.5 million [4] Corporate Earnings Insights - Sinopec's net profit dropped 15% QoQ to RMB 8.3 billion, 26% below forecasts, with a projected 22% decline in Q4 earnings [10] - China Oilfield Services (COSL) reported a 16% QoQ earnings growth to RMB 1.25 billion, but expects a 17% decline in Q4 [13] - CNOOC Limited's net profit fell 12% YoY to RMB 32.4 billion, but was 6% above forecasts, with a projected 21% decline in Q4 earnings [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the oil and petrochemical industry in China is currently experiencing a prolonged downturn due to "involution" competition, but there is potential for a turnaround through policy measures aimed at high-quality transformation and capacity exit [1][2][3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry faced significant challenges, including overcapacity in low-end products and insufficient high-end offerings, leading to a situation where production increases did not translate into profit growth [17][22] - The report forecasts that oil prices will have a strong bottom support, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $60-65 per barrel by 2026, driven by steady demand growth and OPEC+ production adjustments [1][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the refining sector is undergoing significant changes, with leading companies expected to benefit from the exit of outdated capacities and improved profitability due to stricter tax regulations and effective price guidance [2][3] - In the PTA industry, the report notes that the market is highly concentrated, and self-regulation may lead to spontaneous production cuts, which could improve the overall supply-demand balance [3][4] - The trend towards lightweight materials and the substitution of plastics for steel is expected to drive growth in the modified plastics sector, with companies focusing on high-value specialty engineering plastics [4][3]

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the urgent need for the petrochemical industry to embrace "new growth" through innovation, green transformation, and digital empowerment in response to current economic challenges [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Development - The petrochemical industry aims to achieve high-quality development by focusing on intelligent, green, and integrated approaches, as emphasized by industry leaders [2] - The consensus among participants is that new growth should be driven by innovation, characterized by green and low-carbon transitions, and supported by digital technologies [2][3] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Significant technological breakthroughs were showcased, such as the development of the MegaMax catalyst for CO2-to-methanol conversion, demonstrating the industry's commitment to innovation [3] - A notable collaboration between China National Petroleum Corporation and BASF on carbon footprint accounting methods was recognized as a substantial achievement in carbon management [4] Group 3: Sustainable Practices - Companies like Covestro reported a 75% reduction in carbon emissions per product through innovative processes and high renewable energy usage [5] - Ningbo's zero-carbon park initiatives achieved a 99.7% comprehensive utilization rate of solid waste, showcasing effective circular economy practices [5] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges in plastic circular economy related to raw material-market alignment, policy coherence, and economic viability, necessitating collaborative efforts [7] - Discussions on financial tools to support the petrochemical industry's low-carbon transition highlighted the importance of unified standards and incentive mechanisms [7] Group 5: Talent Development - The need for talent cultivation was emphasized as crucial for achieving new growth, with calls for enhanced exchanges between China and Saudi Arabia [7] - The urgency for companies to establish clear technical pathways for carbon reduction was noted, indicating a gap in current strategies [7]