文｜达摩财经 首份2025年券商年度业绩快报出炉。 1月14日，中信证券（600030.SH）发布业绩快报显示，公司2025年实现营业收入748.3亿元，较2024年 调整后的581.19亿元增长28.75%；实现归母净利润300.51亿元，同比增长38.46%。 超过300亿元的年度净利润，这在国内券商历史上还是头一次出现。 中信证券这张出色的成绩单离不开国内资本市场整体上行的推动。自2024年"924"行情后，上证指数从 2700点一路升至4000点，2025年全年，上证指数上涨18.41%，成交额超过170万亿元，创下历史新高。 在此前的震荡周期中，中信证券的业绩表现也跟着受到一定的影响。2022年和2023年，公司营业收入分 别下滑14.92%和7.74%，净利润同步分别下滑7.72%和7.49%。 中信证券亦在本次业绩快报中表示，市场交投活跃度显著提升，投资者信心增强，A股主要指数均实现 上涨。公司积极把握市场机遇，稳步做大客户市场规模，经纪、投资银行、自营业务等收入均实现较快 增长；同时，公司坚定推进国际化布局，深化跨境服务能力，叠加香港市场的良好表现，公司境外收入 实现较快增长。 事实上，中信证 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2025 performance is expected to set a record, with a significant increase in capital expenditure for 2026, indicating ongoing benefits from AI computing power and advanced processes. The domestic wafer fabs are entering an expansion phase to address a million-unit capacity gap, creating a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the equipment market, with a potential doubling of domestic equipment localization rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Performance and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is projected to achieve a revenue of $122 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, with a gross margin nearing 60% [2][10]. - The company's capital expenditure for 2025 is set at $40.9 billion, with an aggressive forecast for 2026, estimating capital expenditure to rise to $52-56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $45-48 billion [2][10]. - 70-80% of the 2026 capital expenditure will be directed towards advanced processes, while 10-20% will be allocated for advanced packaging, testing, and mask manufacturing [2][10]. Group 2: Global Semiconductor Market Outlook - The global semiconductor sales are expected to grow from $68 billion in 2025 to $174.1 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.9% [3][11]. - Demand for semiconductors in servers, data centers, and storage is projected to increase from $15.6 billion in 2025 to $82.6 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 18.6% [3][11]. - Global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is anticipated to rise from 11.2 million wafers per month in 2025 to 19 million wafers per month by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.4% [3][11]. Group 3: Domestic Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing a dual drive of "high growth in AI computing power" and "advanced process localization," with a capacity gap exceeding one million wafers [4][12]. - Currently, domestic production of advanced logic processes (7nm and below) accounts for less than 5% of global capacity, while China's semiconductor demand represents about 35% of the global market [4][12]. - The localization rate of semiconductor equipment is currently around 30%, with expectations to double in the future, driven by increased domestic production and technological advancements [5][13]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The ongoing AI wave and the push for localization are expected to lead to sustained, large-scale investments in China to fill the advanced capacity gap of over one million wafers [7][16]. - Focus is recommended on leading companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs in core equipment areas such as etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and CMP, as well as those with flexible localization rates [7][16]. - Companies that can leverage this historical industry opportunity are likely to emerge as internationally competitive domestic manufacturers in the global semiconductor equipment market [7][16].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|明明 王楠茜 美国12月CPI同比增速降至2.7%，与市场预期一致，核心CPI同比增速为2.6%，略低于市场预期2.7%， 核心CPI环比增速为0.2%，低于市场预期0.3%。整体而言，虽然美国食品与能源项通胀短期仍存在扰 动，但在当前美国就业偏弱运行、关税影响或逐步下降的背景下，预计未来美国通胀进一步上行的压力 可控。 ▍美国12月CPI同比增速降至2.7%，与预期一致，核心CPI同比增速为2.6%，略低于预期。 12月美国未经季节调整的CPI同比增速与11月前值持平为2.7%，符合市场预期。未经季节调整的核心 CPI同比增速为2.6%，与11月前值2.6%一致，低于预期2.7%。CPI环比增长0.3%，与9月前值和市场预期 一致，核心CPI环比增速为0.2%，与9月前值一致（10月、11月CPI环比数据因政府停摆空缺），低于市 场预期0.3%。 ▍12月美国食品项通胀环比增速为0.7%，关税、农产品供给短缺等因素推动美国食品价格上涨。 12月家庭食品环比增速从9月的0.3%上升至0.7%，非家用食品环比增速从 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to achieve record performance in 2025, with a significant increase in capital expenditure for 2026, indicating ongoing benefits from AI computing power and advanced processes [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The domestic wafer fabs are experiencing a wave of expansion due to a million-wafer-level advanced capacity shortage, which is expected to create a $100 billion opportunity in the equipment market [1] - The domestic localization rate is anticipated to double, driven by the dual engines of advanced processes and domestic substitution [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is optimism regarding investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment, particularly for leading companies with platform capabilities and high-elasticity niche leaders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Capital is planning to reduce its stake in CITIC Securities by selling up to 1% of its total shares while simultaneously increasing its investment in Beijing Enterprises Holdings by up to 1 billion yuan [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stake Reduction in CITIC Securities - Yuexiu Capital has agreed to sell up to 1% of CITIC Securities' total shares, with the authorization valid until December 31, 2026 [2]. - Currently, Yuexiu Capital is the second-largest shareholder of CITIC Securities, holding 1.266 billion shares, which is 8.54% of the total shares [2][4]. - The 1% stake corresponds to approximately 148.2 million shares, with current market values of 4.161 billion yuan for A-shares and 4.182 billion HKD for H-shares [4]. Group 2: Increase in Stake in Beijing Enterprises Holdings - Yuexiu Capital plans to use up to 1 billion yuan of its own funds to increase its stake in Beijing Enterprises Holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [5]. - As of January 16, Yuexiu Capital holds 55.913 million shares of Beijing Enterprises, representing 4.44% of its total shares [5]. Group 3: Strategic Objectives and Leadership Changes - The company stated that the purpose of the stake reduction in CITIC Securities is to optimize asset allocation and enhance long-term asset value [6]. - Following the resignation of the former chairman Wang Shuhui, Li Feng has been elected as the new chairman of Yuexiu Capital [6][7]. - As of June 30, 2025, Yuexiu Capital's total assets are reported to be 212.243 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.558 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Capital is making significant moves by planning to sell up to 1% of its stake in CITIC Securities while simultaneously increasing its investment in Beijing Enterprises Holdings by up to 1 billion yuan [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stake Sale in CITIC Securities - Yuexiu Capital's board approved the sale of up to 1% of CITIC Securities' total shares, with authorization valid until December 31, 2026 [3]. - Currently, Yuexiu Capital is the second-largest shareholder of CITIC Securities, holding 1.266 billion shares, which is 8.54% of the total shares [3][5]. - The 1% stake corresponds to approximately 148.2 million shares, with current market values of 4.161 billion yuan for A-shares and 4.182 billion HKD for H-shares [5]. Group 2: Increased Investment in Beijing Enterprises Holdings - Yuexiu Capital plans to use up to 1 billion yuan of its own funds to increase its stake in Beijing Enterprises Holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [5]. - As of January 16, Yuexiu Capital holds 55.913 million shares of Beijing Enterprises, representing 4.44% of its total shares [5]. Group 3: Strategic Objectives and Leadership Changes - The company stated that the purpose of the stake sale and increase is to align with its development strategy and optimize asset allocation [6][7]. - Recently, the company appointed a new chairman, Li Feng, following the resignation of the previous chairman, Wang Shuhui, due to work changes [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, Yuexiu Capital's total assets were 212.243 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.558 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend supported by policy, economic stabilization, and improved liquidity, with a focus on investment logic and layout direction as the Spring Festival approaches [1][2] Policy Support - Regulatory bodies are guiding the A-share market towards a "gradual rise" pattern, with mechanisms for long-term capital entering the market being continuously improved, enhancing market stability [2] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, such as fertility subsidies, are being implemented, which are expected to stabilize and improve the return on equity (ROE) for related listed companies [2] Economic Signals - The overall revenue growth rate for A-shares improved from -0.02% in the first half of 2025 to 1.2% in the third quarter, while net profit growth increased from 2.5% to 5.3% during the same period, indicating a trend of improving profitability [2] - Forecasts for 2026 suggest a stable macroeconomic environment with net profit growth expected to be 4.8% for the year, peaking in the second quarter [2] Long-term Capital Inflow - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is becoming a major source of market liquidity, with an estimated potential inflow of approximately 1.73 trillion yuan based on 2025 insurance premium income [3] - This influx of stable capital is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance internal stability [3] Market Structure and Opportunities - Structural opportunities are evident, with 39 out of 360 industry or thematic ETFs reaching new highs in December 2025, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and military aerospace [3] - The market is characterized by a significant divergence in performance, with small-cap stocks and thematic sectors outperforming larger indices [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is showing signs of recovery, with a sentiment index reading of 98.1 on January 9, 2026, indicating a high level of optimism [4] - The market is currently in a phase where emotional recovery and capital reallocation are key themes, especially as the Spring Festival approaches [4][5] Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on three dimensions: consensus direction, counter-consensus direction, and long-term investments, while also considering the opportunities presented by the appreciation of the renminbi [6][8] - In the consensus direction, sectors like non-ferrous metals and semiconductors are highlighted as key areas for institutional investment [7] - For counter-consensus investments, sectors related to domestic demand, such as travel services and quality real estate developers, are recommended due to their potential for valuation recovery [7] Long-term Considerations - There is a growing demand for investments that reduce volatility, with a focus on sectors that have room for ROE improvement, such as chemicals and renewable energy [8] - The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in industries like paper and aviation, which have already seen positive effects [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by securities firms at the beginning of 2026, with a total issuance exceeding 119.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 73% [1][2][4] - A total of 27 securities firms have issued 44 bonds as of January 16, 2026, with leading firms like Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy Securities showing notable issuance volumes of 17.5 billion yuan, 14.8 billion yuan, and 14 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The bond issuance is driven by a combination of business expansion, rising funding needs, and a low-interest-rate environment, allowing firms to actively position for future growth and structural adjustments [1][4][5] Group 2 - The current bond issuance structure indicates a clear strategic direction, with 12 short-term financing bonds, 27 corporate bonds, and 3 subordinated bonds issued, primarily aimed at supplementing working capital and repaying maturing debts [2][3] - Some firms are also utilizing international financing channels to increase capital for overseas subsidiaries, as seen with GF Securities planning to raise over 6 billion HKD through H-share placements and convertible bonds [3] - The favorable market conditions, including a strong performance in the capital market and low interest rates, have created an attractive environment for bond issuance, allowing firms to optimize their debt structure through refinancing [4][5]

Core Insights - The brokerage apps have become an important window for observing the comprehensive strength and service innovation trends of various brokerages, with active users reaching 175 million in December 2025, marking a 1.75% month-on-month increase and a 2.26% year-on-year increase, setting a new monthly record for 2025 [1] Group 1: User Engagement and Competition - Two brokerage apps, Huatai Securities' "Zhangle Wealth" and Guotai Junan's "Guotai Junan Junhong," lead the monthly active user rankings with 12.12 million and 10.40 million users respectively, showing month-on-month growth of 2.59% and 2.12% [2] - Other major brokerage apps also demonstrated high user engagement, with Ping An Securities' app reaching 8.88 million active users (up 2.06%), and several others exceeding 7 million [2] - The brokerage app with the highest month-on-month growth was "Zhangshan Securities," which saw a 2.99% increase, reaching 7.30 million active users [2] Group 2: Year-on-Year Growth - The brokerage app with the most significant year-on-year growth was "Xingye Securities Youlibao," which achieved a 20.66% increase, reaching 1.87 million active users in December [3] - Other apps like "Changjiang e-Number" and "Zhangle Wealth" also experienced steady growth, with year-on-year increases exceeding 5% [3] Group 3: Wealth Management Transformation - In December 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.06%, prompting brokerages to enhance their apps by refining advisory services and adding smart trading tools and insurance sections to meet diverse investment needs [4] - Optimizing advisory services has become a key focus for brokerage app upgrades, with companies like Guosen Securities launching new advisory service sections and products tailored to different customer segments [4] - The introduction of insurance sections in brokerage apps has emerged as a highlight, with Ping An Securities and other firms offering various insurance products and educational content to users [4] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Directions - Analysts indicate that in the context of declining commission rates, the transformation towards wealth management is essential for brokerages to overcome development bottlenecks, evolving from mere securities brokerage to comprehensive wealth management institutions [5] - The inclusion of insurance products can enhance the stability and risk resistance of customer asset portfolios, allowing brokerages to provide more precise and comprehensive services throughout the customer lifecycle [6]

Group 1 - Yuexiu Capital plans to reduce its stake in CITIC Securities by up to 1% of the total share capital, which is valued at over 4.1 billion RMB or 4.1 billion HKD based on current stock prices [2][5] - As of January 16, Yuexiu Capital holds a total of 1.266 billion shares in CITIC Securities, representing 8.54% of the total share capital, making it the second-largest shareholder [3][5] - The company will also use up to 1 billion RMB of its own funds to increase its stake in Beijing Enterprises Holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [5] Group 2 - The recent changes in leadership at Yuexiu Capital include the resignation of Chairman Wang Shuhui and the election of Li Feng as the new chairman [6] - As of June 30, 2025, Yuexiu Capital's total assets are projected to be 212.24 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1.56 billion RMB for the first half of 2025 [6]