截至2025年8月29日 13:11，中证全指证券公司指数上涨0.81%，成分股华西证券上涨4.60%，东方财富上涨4.18%，中信建投上涨3.57%，国盛金控上涨 2.54%，国联民生上涨1.72%。证券ETF嘉实(562870)上涨0.54%。 流动性方面，证券ETF嘉实盘中换手1.29%，成交581.71万元。拉长时间看，截至8月28日，证券ETF嘉实近1年日均成交2180.00万元。资金流入方面，拉长 时间看，证券ETF嘉实近20个交易日内，合计"吸金"8782.71万元。 中银证券表示，政策在监管思路上体现出"正向激励 反向约束"的双轮驱动。一方面，通过鼓励券商加大权益投资、财富管理和投顾等业务布局，引导行业 在引入中长期资金、提升服务实体经济能力方面发挥更大作用；另一方面，对于重大违法违规公司直接下调评级，强化了"打大打恶"的监管信号，有助于净 化行业生态，倒逼机构更加重视合规与风险防控。新规通过更严厉的惩戒与更灵活的激励并举，进一步凸显分类评价的"指挥棒"作用，既强化中小投资者权 益保障，也将推动行业形成"扶优限劣"的良性格局。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过证券ETF嘉实联接基金(016842) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 31.5 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 and the first half of 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in proprietary trading and brokerage businesses, solidifying its leading position in the market [1][2]. - The capital market is showing signs of recovery, with brokerage fees playing a crucial role in supporting revenue growth [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and a recovering capital market, which will enhance its performance [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved adjusted revenues of 166.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit of 71.7 billion CNY, up 27.9% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, revenues reached 329.2 billion CNY, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 29.8% to 137.2 billion CNY [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 9.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business generated revenues of 30.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025 and 64.0 billion CNY in the first half, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2% and 31.2%, respectively [2]. - The average daily trading volume for stocks significantly increased, with Q2 and H1 figures showing year-on-year growth of 56.8% and 63.9% [2]. Investment Banking - The investment banking segment reported revenues of 11.2 billion CNY in Q2 2025 and 21.0 billion CNY in H1, with year-on-year growth of 29.6% and 20.9% [2]. - The company’s IPO and refinancing scales for H1 2025 were 84.3 billion CNY and 1799.8 billion CNY, marking substantial increases of 66.4% and 574.2% year-on-year [2]. Asset Management - Asset management revenues were 28.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025 and 54.4 billion CNY in H1, with year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 10.8% [3]. - The non-monetary public fund management scale of the company’s subsidiary, Huaxia Fund, reached 824.3 billion CNY, a 39.2% increase year-on-year [3]. Proprietary Trading - Proprietary trading revenues surged to 101.9 billion CNY in Q2 2025 and 190.5 billion CNY in H1, reflecting year-on-year growth of 62.5% and 62.4% [4]. - The financial asset scale for proprietary trading stood at 882.6 billion CNY, with an investment return rate of 2.16%, up 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Credit Business - The credit business faced challenges, with revenues of 4.2 billion CNY in Q2 2025 and 2.2 billion CNY in H1, showing declines of 46.4% and 80.1% year-on-year [5].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reported strong financial performance for H1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a solid market position and ongoing expansion trend [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, CITIC Securities achieved revenue of 33.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.719 billion yuan, up 29.80% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue reached 15.278 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.69% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.98%. The net profit for Q2 was 7.174 billion yuan, up 27.85% year-on-year and 9.61% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Asset Expansion and Leverage - As of the end of Q2 2025, total assets amounted to 1.81 trillion yuan, representing a 6% increase from the beginning of the year and a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter. The leverage ratio was 4.50x, slightly down from the beginning of the year [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - Investment income in H1 2025 surged by 62% year-on-year, serving as the main driver of performance growth. Brokerage and investment banking revenues grew by 31% and 21% respectively, while asset management revenue increased by 11%. However, net interest income saw a significant decline of 80% [2][4]. - The financial investment scale at the end of Q2 2025 was 882.6 billion yuan, with fixed income investments at 457.2 billion yuan (up 9% year-to-date) and equity investments at 275.4 billion yuan (down 5% year-to-date) [3]. Brokerage and Investment Banking - Brokerage business net income for H1 2025 was 6.4 billion yuan, a 31% increase, driven by improved market conditions with daily trading volumes in A-shares and H-shares rising significantly [4]. - Investment banking net income for H1 2025 was 2.1 billion yuan, up 21%, with a leading market share in A-share underwriting projects [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the improved market conditions since July, the company has adjusted its revenue and investment income forecasts upward for the year. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 29.3 billion, 33.6 billion, and 36.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.98, 2.27, and 2.46 yuan [5]. - The target price has been raised to 42.06 yuan and 39.17 HKD, reflecting a stable market position and ongoing expansion [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in performance for the first half of 2025, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 33.039 billion and 13.719 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of +20.4% and +29.8% [1][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.95 percentage points to 4.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved profitability [1][6]. - The company’s self-operated income remains a major source of profit, with investment income increasing by 30.5% year-on-year, and investment returns up by 135% [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 33.039 billion yuan and net profit of 13.719 billion yuan, with a significant increase in Q2 net profit to 7.174 billion yuan, up 27.9% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The average ROE for the first half of 2025 was 4.9%, with a slight decrease in operating leverage to 4.42 times [1][3]. Business Segments - The brokerage, investment banking, and asset management segments reported net revenues of 6.402 billion, 2.098 billion, and 5.444 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.2%, 20.9%, and 10.8% [2][3]. - The company maintained a leading position in the A-share market with a market share of 19% in equity underwriting [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 27.552 billion, 29.708 billion, and 32.499 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +26.9%, +7.8%, and +9.4% [3][4]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.61, 1.46, and 1.33, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities is enhancing its risk management strategies in response to market changes and policy adjustments, focusing on dynamic management of key business areas to mitigate risks in securities investment [1] Group 1: Risk Management Strategies - The company is implementing refined, differentiated, and dynamic management practices to effectively prevent risks in its securities investment business [1] - Future measures include closely following policy adjustments and market changes, strengthening industry research and assessment, and timely adjustments to risk management strategies [1] - Optimization of margin management mechanisms is also a priority to enhance proactive risk assessment capabilities [1] Group 2: Risk Monitoring and Prevention - CITIC Securities will continue to strengthen risk inspections for key businesses, industries, and clients by increasing the breadth and frequency of assessments [1] - The company plans to conduct detailed evaluations of key holdings to enhance asset quality monitoring and risk warning capabilities [1] - The goal is to timely identify and recognize potential risk hazards, thereby improving the company's ability to prevent and respond to risks in its securities investment business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes a customer-driven asset allocation strategy and a prudent investment style, focusing on financing, fixed income, and stocks that hedge customer needs, resulting in favorable overall asset allocation effects [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a customer demand-driven asset allocation philosophy [1] - The asset allocation style is characterized as prudent, primarily involving financing and fixed income assets [1] - The overall asset allocation performance is reported to be satisfactory [1] Group 2: Management Approach - The company will continue to adhere to a prudent asset-liability management strategy [1] - There is a commitment to actively respond to national strategies and implement the financial "five major articles" [1] - The company aims to seize market opportunities and enhance business growth and high-quality development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing a positive trend with significant growth in both revenue and net profit among major brokerage firms, indicating a recovery in performance and a favorable market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index rose by 0.18%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Huaxi Securities (up 6.13%) and Guosheng Jin控 (up 2.07%) [1]. - The Broker ETF (512000) saw a trading volume of 4.52 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.46% [1]. - Over the past week, the Broker ETF's average daily trading volume was 23.42 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Fund Growth and Performance - The Broker ETF experienced a significant scale increase of 1.173 billion yuan over the past week, placing it second among comparable funds [1]. - The latest share count for the Broker ETF reached 48.716 billion, marking a one-year high and leading among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 58.38 million yuan, with a total of 1.576 billion yuan net inflow over the last five trading days, averaging 315 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Revenue and Profit Growth - As of August 28, 2025, the Broker ETF's net value increased by 67.45% over the past year [2]. - Major brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities and China Galaxy Securities reported substantial revenue and net profit growth in their 2025 semi-annual reports, with CITIC Securities' brokerage income reaching approximately 9.319 billion yuan (up 21.11%) and China Galaxy's revenue at 13.747 billion yuan (up 37.71%) [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Minsheng Securities indicated that the capital market remains strong with high trading activity, and the continuous expansion of margin financing balances suggests a sustained recovery trend for brokerage performance [3]. - Recent revisions to the classification evaluation indicators for securities companies are expected to promote ongoing improvements in the industry, benefiting leading brokerages and smaller firms with distinctive equity business [3].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 中信证券（600030.SH） 优于大市 投资收益高增，经纪资管同步扩张 公司发布 2025 年中报。上半年实现营收 330.39 亿元，同比+20.44%；归母 净利润 137.19 亿元，同比+29.80%；加权平均 ROE 4.91%，同比+0.95pct。 分条线看，H1 营收同比增速：经纪+31.2%、投行+20.9%、资管+10.8%、利息 -80.1%、投资+62.4%，H1 营收占比：经纪 19.4%、投行 6.4%、资管 16.5%、 利息 0.7%、投资 58.9%。投资收益高增，以及市场活跃度提升下经纪业务扩 张是推动业绩增长的主要原因。此外，投行业务复苏亦对业绩增长亦有助力。 自营投资：金融资产投资同比增长，投资收益率提升。截至 2025H1 末，公 司金融投资资产规模 8,826 亿元，同比+14.1%。其中 FVTPL 资产 7,405 亿元， 同比+16.2%；FVOCI 权益工具投资 852.3 亿元，同比+27.2%；FVOCI 债权工 具投资 569.2 亿元，同比-18.3%。H1 年化投资收益率 4.22%，同比+0.95pct ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities believes that the macroeconomic data in the United States is still in a declining phase, with challenges such as persistent inflation and policy constraints impacting growth [1] Summary by Relevant Sections US Economic Outlook - Since August, overseas macroeconomic conditions have remained resilient but face challenges of decline, persistent inflation, and constraints from incremental policies [1] - The macroeconomic data in the US is in a declining phase, with signs of early overextension in activities [1] - Inflation is beginning to impact consumption and residents' living standards, suggesting a significant slowdown in growth for the second half of the year [1] Eurozone and Other Regions - The Eurozone shows some improvement in economic conditions but remains at a low point due to disruptions from US tariffs [1] - Australia is less affected by tariffs compared to the Eurozone, with domestic consumption supporting its economy [1] - Japan continues to face high inflation issues, while South Korea's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with short-term effects of tax cuts potentially falling short of expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the securities sector experiencing notable gains, driven by strong financial results from leading brokerage firms and increased market activity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened with mixed results, with the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index rising by 0.87% [1]. - The brokerage ETF (159842) opened high, increasing by 0.72% with a trading volume exceeding 34 million yuan, indicating active trading at the beginning of the session [2]. Group 2: Financial Results - Four leading brokerages, including CITIC Securities and China Galaxy Securities, reported their 2025 semi-annual results, all showing growth in revenue and net profit, with the highest net profit growth reaching 57.77% [2]. - These brokerages also announced significant cash dividends, with the highest dividend payout ratio being 32.53% of net profit [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Zhongyuan Securities suggests that if the equity market continues to expand, the brokerage index may maintain a steady recovery and upward trend, potentially approaching a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of two times, which is the upper limit of the past decade [3]. - In the event of a strong market correction, the brokerage sector's valuation may drop below the average P/B of 1.55 times since 2016, but continued investment in the brokerage sector is recommended, focusing on leading firms with strong wealth management and deep equity investment capabilities [3].