Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of CITIC Securities, with a notable increase in stock price and significant trading volume on January 6, 2025 [1] - On January 6, CITIC Securities' stock rose by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 10.055 billion yuan, and a net financing purchase of 28.07 million yuan [1] - The total margin financing and securities lending balance for CITIC Securities reached 17.663 billion yuan as of January 6, 2025, indicating a high level of activity in both financing and lending [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities, established on October 25, 1995, operates in various sectors including securities brokerage, underwriting, asset management, and proprietary trading, with a revenue composition of 43.88% from investment business, 28.21% from brokerage, 18.21% from asset management, 6.22% from underwriting, and 3.49% from other businesses [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.159 billion yuan, up 37.86% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities has distributed a total of 88.704 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 22.009 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of CITIC Securities include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 500.1 million shares, a decrease of 83.4469 million shares from the previous period [3] - New institutional shareholders include the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, holding 252 million shares, while other major shareholders have also seen reductions in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has initiated a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group-S (09961) with a target price of 660 HKD, citing manageable short-term impacts from public opinion and international political fluctuations on outbound tourism [5]. Financial Projections - The firm forecasts that by 2026, Trip.com Group's domestic revenue will grow by 9%, outbound revenue by 12%, and pure overseas revenue by 34%, leading to an overall revenue growth rate of 13% and an adjusted net profit of 22.58 billion RMB [5]. - The current valuation stands at approximately 16.5 times earnings, which is below the historical average of 18 times, suggesting a buying opportunity during price dips [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Citic Securities believes that the company's market share as a leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) is unlikely to decrease in the long term, with minimal impact on overall performance [5]. - The report anticipates that domestic hotel prices will stabilize and recover gradually, with a relatively stable competitive landscape, allowing Trip.com to maintain a leading growth rate in its domestic hotel business [5]. - Trip.com is expected to drive continued high growth in its overseas business, enabling the company to enhance its market share and profit release [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bona Film Group's market value plummeted by nearly 8 billion yuan within 15 trading days due to disappointing box office performance of "Avatar 3," highlighting the fragility of the high-investment, high-volatility model in the film industry [1][8]. Group 1: Stock Price Volatility - In early December 2025, Bona Film's stock surged by 87.76% in 9 days, reaching a market value of over 18.3 billion yuan due to expectations surrounding "Avatar 3." However, after the film's release, its box office fell to less than 1.2 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous installment's 1.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The market's loss of confidence led to consecutive trading halts, resulting in a 43% decrease in market value by January 6, 2026. Despite Bona's attempts to reassure investors about its limited exposure to "Avatar 3," the stark contrast between expectations and reality revealed the speculative risks tied to blockbuster dependency [2][9]. Group 2: Capital Withdrawal Amidst Share Reduction - Amidst the stock price collapse, major shareholder CITIC Securities and its affiliates planned to reduce their stake by approximately 2%, potentially cashing out around 208 million yuan at current stock prices. This reduction is part of a broader trend, with other shareholders like Alibaba Pictures also decreasing their stakes [3][10]. - The collective exit of shareholders reflects the deteriorating fundamentals of Bona Film, which reported cumulative losses exceeding 2.6 billion yuan from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025, with a loss of 1.11 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 alone [3][10]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - Bona Film's difficulties stem from an imbalanced business model, with over 80% of its revenue in the first half of 2025 reliant on cinema operations, which had a low gross margin of 14.73%. The film investment segment's gross margin plummeted to -534.63% due to the poor performance of "Operation Dragon" [4][11]. - Cash flow pressures are severe, with cash reserves of 1.356 billion yuan against interest-bearing liabilities of 4.921 billion yuan, resulting in a funding gap exceeding 3.5 billion yuan. To alleviate this pressure, Bona has even reduced capital by 70 million yuan in a subsidiary to repay debts [4][11]. Group 4: Industry Warnings - The underperformance of "Avatar 3" signals a broader decline of Hollywood IP in the Chinese market, with its box office share dropping to 15.1% in 2024 from 38.7% in 2017. Audience fatigue with high ticket prices and lengthy runtimes has diminished the marginal returns of visual spectacle films [5][12]. - Bona Film is attempting to pivot through patriotic blockbusters and AI short dramas, but faces risks of homogenization and unproven commercial viability. Additionally, governance issues persist, with the controlling shareholder's 48.7% stake frozen and regulatory penalties for non-operational fund misuse [5][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, Bona Film must navigate stock price pressures from share reductions. Long-term survival hinges on moving away from reliance on blockbuster hits and developing a more balanced content portfolio and cost control system [6][13]. - The competitive landscape in the film industry is shifting from IP monopolization to content innovation and operational efficiency. As capital enthusiasm wanes, it remains to be seen if Bona can regain market trust through upcoming projects like "Fast Life 3," but the era of relying solely on "Avatar 3" for performance recovery is over [6][13].

该行预计，2026年携程集团境内收入增9%、出境增12%、纯海外增34%，整体收入增速13%，经调整净 利润225.8亿人民币。当前估值约16.5倍，低于历史估值中枢的18倍，建议逢低布局。展望2026年，该行 预计境内酒店价格逐步企稳回升、竞争格局相对稳定的背景下公司境内酒店业务增速有望持续领先行 业，同时Trip.com有望驱动海外业务延续高增长，携程有望持续实现份额提升与利润释放。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S(09961)"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。 报告表示，近期携程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行 认为，短期舆论影响可控，长期而言，集团作为OTA龙头份额大概率不会降低，且对整体业绩影响较 小。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery of China's macro economy in 2026, with an expected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, characterized by structural differentiation [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates resilient exports and a gradual recovery in investments, while consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [1] - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to feature marginal liquidity easing alongside moderate economic recovery [1] Asset Class Recommendations - Recommended asset classes in order of preference: commodities > stocks > bonds [1] Equity Market Projections - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, termed a "Davis Double" [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain growth momentum under a backdrop of fiscal and monetary easing during the midterm election year [1] Bond Market Expectations - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a pattern of decline followed by an increase [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] Commodity Market Insights - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel [1] - Gold is expected to remain strong due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to enter a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is projected to see store numbers double by 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2025, with industry sales expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025. The competition is expected to intensify in 2024, but ease in 2025, with a significant focus on store expansion and price wars among leading companies [1]. Group 1: Store Expansion - The snack retail industry has significant room for expansion, with leading companies continuing to open new stores. The estimated number of stores is expected to double to 42,000 in 2024 and further expand to 56,000 by the end of 2025, although the growth rate will slow down. Based on saturation levels in Hunan province and other demographic factors, the industry could potentially expand to 70,000 to 80,000 stores, indicating over 30% expansion potential [1]. - The industry is experiencing a concentration trend, with the top two companies currently holding 71% of the market share, which is expected to rise to over 80%, indicating that there is still over 50% room for new store openings [1]. Group 2: Competition - In 2024, competition in the snack retail industry is expected to intensify, with leading companies employing various subsidies to accelerate store openings and capture market share. Following the intense price wars of 2024, a dual-leader competitive landscape has emerged, leading to a significant improvement in competition by 2025, with a notable reduction in store opening subsidies [2]. - The era of price competition is considered over, with future competition likely to focus on brand strength, product assortment, digital operations, and private label products [2]. Group 3: Store Efficiency - Despite a decline in single-store revenue due to increased store density, there are signs of improvement. In the first half of 2025, store sales are expected to drop by over 10%, extending the payback period for new stores from 1-2 years to 2-3 years. Companies are responding by diversifying product offerings, increasing store sizes, experimenting with discount supermarkets, and enhancing private label products to improve average transaction values [3]. - The expansion of non-food categories and optimization of product structures are ongoing, with leading companies showing signs of improvement in same-store sales in the second half of 2025, with a noticeable narrowing of the sales decline compared to the first half [3]. Group 4: Insights from BIM - BIM, a leading discount retailer in Turkey, has demonstrated robust store expansion through a limited SKU strategy, focusing on private label products, and efficient supply chain management. The company has maintained a high-value retail model, proving resilient in various economic conditions [4]. - The study of BIM suggests that adapting to consumer demands for variety and quality is crucial, necessitating SKU optimization and store renovations to support same-store sales. BIM has successfully expanded its SKU count from 600 to 900, while also introducing new store formats to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - As purchasing volumes increase, discount retailers may find it reasonable to establish their own production and processing supply chains for better cost and quality control. BIM has entered upstream manufacturing, enhancing its private label product offerings [5][6].

Macro and Policy - In 2026, China's macroeconomic growth is expected to show a mild recovery with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, supported by resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, although consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [4][14] - The focus of policies will be on building a modern industrial system, which is anticipated to yield significant results in technological innovation and industrial upgrades [4][14] Major Asset Classes - The asset environment in 2026 is expected to exhibit marginal liquidity easing and mild economic recovery, with recommendations favoring commodities over stocks and bonds [3][13] - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is projected to be between 5% and 10%, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a rebound in performance and valuation recovery [3][13] - Commodity prices are anticipated to stabilize, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, and gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce [3][13] Technology - The narrative around AI is expected to deepen, continuing to reshape the value of the technology sector, with a shift from "model iteration" to "scenario implementation" [5][15] - Domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment are expected to thrive under the trend of self-sufficiency, while AI-related sectors are projected to experience significant growth [5][15] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize due to low expectations and valuations, with a focus on wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization driving business turning points [6][16] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in new products and categories driven by emotional and health-related demands [6][16] Healthcare - The healthcare sector is likely to benefit from improved payment systems and accelerated international expansion, with domestic innovative drugs entering a phase of payment improvement and market realization [7][17] Energy - The energy sector is expected to see continued price increases for copper, aluminum, gold, and battery metals, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [7][17] - Coal companies are projected to improve performance in line with coal prices, with recommendations for selecting stocks based on low-cost positioning and capacity expansion [7][17] Infrastructure - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a stabilization foundation in 2026, and companies may enter a critical year for balance sheet repair [8][18] - The public utility and environmental sectors are recommended for investment, particularly in water and gas industries, which are expected to recover as gas prices fall and demand rises [8][18] Financial Sector - The financial industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with improved operating conditions expected as interest rates stabilize and insurance sector concerns ease [8][18] - Economic recovery is anticipated to drive demand for financial services, with a focus on high-dividend financial stocks as a stable investment choice [8][18] Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector's growth is expected to be driven by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in domestic demand, with AI continuing to be a major growth driver [9][19] - Companies are advised to focus on risk-resistant core assets while capitalizing on global expansion and technological advancements [9][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which may impact Japanese zirconia manufacturers, while Chinese zirconia powder and ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit and expand their market share overseas [1][4]. Group 1: Export Control Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on all dual-use items exported to Japanese military users and any other end-users that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities, effective from January 6, 2026 [2]. - Organizations and individuals violating these regulations will face legal consequences [2]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Manufacturers - Yttrium oxide, a key raw material for yttrium-stabilized zirconia, is included in the export control list, which may disrupt Japanese manufacturers like DKKK, Tosoh, and Showa Denko, as they are involved in military products [3][4]. - The global zirconia market is projected to reach 4.23 billion by 2025, with Japanese firms holding significant market positions [4]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - The disruption in Japanese production due to export controls is expected to benefit Chinese zirconia powder manufacturers, allowing them to accelerate their international expansion [5]. - Japanese zirconia manufacturers' clients will also be affected, creating further opportunities for their Chinese counterparts to gain market share [5].

人民财讯1月7日电，中信证券指出，经测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原 因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，中信证券认为更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。如果商业 银行持续结汇，但央行不购汇，资金面可能会面临摩擦，需要央行通过其他货币政策工具予以对冲。 转自：证券时报 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

每经AI快讯，1月7日，中信证券研报表示，我国量贩零食行业发展迅速，估算2024/2025年门店同比翻 倍/增长超30%至4.2万/5.6万家，2025年行业销售规模有望达2200+亿元。2024年行业竞争加剧，头部量 贩零食企业通过加大门店和价格战补贴推动加速拓店。2025年行业竞争缓和，不过由于门店快速加密， 2025H1头部量贩零食企业同店销售下滑多，2025H2同店跌幅已环比改善。研报称，看好国内硬折扣零 售业态可以穿越经济周期、保持韧性增长，头部量贩零食企业未来还有超50%的开店空间，品类扩展、 自有品牌产品运营、店型优化、精细化运营是未来重要发展任务。 ...