证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高速增长，23 年、24 年、25H1 公司国际市场产品分别实现签约超 7 亿美 元、超 12 亿美元、11.20 亿美元，25H1 同比增长 65.9%；截至 25H1，公 司输变电国际成套项目在手合同金额超 50 亿美元。25 年 8 月斩获沙特约 164 亿元框架标。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格 有望进一步推升，公司变压 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TBEA Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 33.31 RMB, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 22X [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that TBEA's multiple business segments are entering a phase of upward momentum, with the power transmission and transformation business expected to benefit from global high-pressure equipment shortages, leading to accelerated international expansion [1][17]. - The gold business is experiencing simultaneous increases in both volume and price, while coal and polysilicon sectors are also showing signs of recovery, indicating strong upward profit elasticity for the company in 2026-2027 [1][17]. - The report emphasizes that TBEA is a leading player in the energy equipment sector, with a diversified portfolio that includes power transmission, energy, new energy, and new materials, positioning the company for robust growth [23]. Summary by Sections Power Transmission and Transformation - TBEA is a leading private transformer manufacturer in China, with integrated capabilities in high-voltage cables, accessories, and construction services. The company is witnessing rapid growth in overseas orders, with international market product contracts exceeding 7 billion USD in 2023 and 12 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65.9% in the first half of 2025 [2][18]. - The domestic market is also expected to see a significant increase in grid investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with TBEA's market share in main grid tenders continuing to rise, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][18]. Resource Products - The gold mining segment is currently in a rapid capacity release phase, with projected production increasing from 2.2 tons in 2024 to 3.6 tons in 2027, potentially generating revenues of 19.8 billion RMB to 46.4 billion RMB during this period, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.9% to 29.2% [3][19]. - TBEA's coal business benefits from low-cost open-pit mining resources, with a production cost of only 177 RMB per ton in the first half of 2025. The company is also developing a coal-to-gas project that is expected to enhance profitability [3][20]. - The polysilicon segment is anticipated to achieve significant cost reductions, with cash costs expected to decrease by approximately 18% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to return to cash flow breakeven [4][21]. Market Perspective - The report notes a divergence from market perceptions, indicating that TBEA's diverse business segments are now in an upward cycle, contrary to the prevailing view that the company is being dragged down by its renewable energy and coal businesses [5][22]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in various sectors, including power transmission, coal-to-gas, gold production, and polysilicon, to drive future growth and profitability [5][22].

特变电工业务多元，涵盖新能源（硅料、光伏逆变器）、能源（煤炭、 发电）、新材料（铝相关产品）及黄金开采，2015 至 2024 年收入从 不到 400 亿元增至近千亿元，归属净利润从 19 亿元增至 41 亿元。 公司在输变电领域是国内一线龙头，产品覆盖 1,000 千伏特高压核心产 品，受益于国内外市场景气度和国内电网投资增长，2021 至 2024 年 输配电业务保持 10%-20%的增速。 国内"十五五"期间预计特高压总投资约 4 万亿，年复合增速约 6%， 与三北新能源基地外送密切相关。海外制造业复苏和数据中心建设驱动 用电量增长，共同利好特高压建设。 2023-2024 年受硅料和煤炭价格下滑影响，公司归属净利润分别同比 下降 30%和 60%。但预计 2025 年价格触底，输配电和黄金板块将贡 献显著收益，公司经营有望持续增长。 公司黄金年产量约 2.5-3 吨，受益于金价上涨，该板块景气度高，业绩 有上修空间。拥有海外金矿资源，黄金开采成为快速成长的重要业务， 预计持续贡献显著收益。 Q&A 特变电工的业务结构和发展情况如何？ 特变电工成立于 1993 年，起家于输变电业务，尤其是变压器领域。公 ...

1月28日，特变电工大宗交易成交21万股，成交额589.26万元，占当日总成交额的0.07%，成交价28.06 元，较市场收盘价28.06元持平。 | DC 324 BEC YET ELL VEN | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券商除 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | 026-01-28 | 特壹电工 | 600089 | 28.06 589.26 21 | 胡类能量 | 空身量發動與非常 | | KO | ...

股价表现方面，特大单资金净流入超2亿元个股今日平均上涨7.20%，表现强于沪指。具体看，上述个 股今日上涨的有49只，股价以涨停收盘的有东芯股份、宏景科技等。 所属行业来看，上述特大单净流入资金居前个股中，电子、国防军工、通信行业最为集中，上榜个股分 别有19只、6只、6只。（数据宝） 两市全天特大单净流出191.88亿元，其中50股特大单净流入超2亿元，中际旭创特大单净流入21.25亿 元，特大单净流入资金居首。 沪指今日收盘上涨0.18%。资金面上看，沪深两市全天特大单净流出191.88亿元，共计1650股特大单净 流入，3231股特大单净流出。 从申万一级行业来看，今日有5个行业特大单资金净流入，电子特大单净流入规模居首，净流入资金 110.47亿元，该行业指数今日上涨2.27%，其次是通信，今日上涨2.15%，净流入资金为57.26亿元，净 流入资金居前的还有国防军工、银行等行业。 特大单资金净流出的行业共有26个，净流出资金最多的是有色金属，特大单净流出资金102.09亿元，其 次是电力设备，特大单净流出资金73.15亿元，净流出资金居前的还有医药生物、基础化工等行业。 具体到个股来看，50股特大单 ...

今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 2.27 | 89.01 | 石油石化 | -0.61 | -7.85 | | 通信 | 2.15 | 43.08 | 房地产 | -0.93 | -8.49 | | 银行 | -0.08 | 19.02 | 商贸零售 | -0.90 | -9.02 | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 12.64 | 钢铁 | -1.34 | -10.18 | | 农林牧渔 | -1.95 | 0.21 | 公用事业 | -0.79 | -12.23 | | 美容护理 | -1.22 | -1.33 | 建筑装饰 | -0.81 | -15.45 | | 综合 | 0.23 | -1.71 | 传媒 | 0.48 | -16.27 | | 轻工制造 | -0.40 | -4.16 | 非银金融 | -0.18 | -19.97 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.71 | -4.54 | 汽车 | 0.03 | -32 ...

| 601001 | 晋控煤业 | -3.20 | 1.15 | -821.43 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603113 | 金能科技 | -3.06 | 2.14 | -808.77 | | 600117 | 西宁特钢 | -2.33 | 0.91 | -808.08 | | 600180 | 瑞茂通 | -1.61 | 1.61 | -633.76 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | -2.65 | 0.55 | -609.66 | | 000552 | 甘肃能化 | -2.46 | 1.84 | -593.07 | | 601101 | 昊华能源 | -2.44 | 0.96 | -567.01 | | 001286 | 陕西能源 | -1.51 | 1.28 | -556.15 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | -1.28 | 1.71 | -492.85 | | 002535 | 林州重机 | -0.97 | 2.86 | -488.80 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | -3.38 | 1.13 | -486.85 | | 002691 ...

沪指1月27日上涨0.18%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有8个，涨幅居前的行业为电子、通信，涨幅分 别为2.27%、2.15%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、农林牧渔，跌幅分别为2.27%、1.95%。电力设备行业今 日下跌0.54%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出463.99亿元，今日有5个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.27%，全天净流入资金89.01亿元，其次是通信行业，日涨幅为 2.15%，净流入资金为43.08亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有26个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金145.23亿元， 其次是电力设备行业，净流出资金为113.67亿元，净流出资金较多的还有医药生物、基础化工、计算机 等行业。 电力设备行业今日下跌0.54%，全天主力资金净流出113.67亿元，该行业所属的个股共365只，今日上涨 的有126只，涨停的有3只；下跌的有234只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有81 只，其中，净流入资金超亿元的有11只，净流入资金居首的是中超控股，今日净流入资金6.66亿元，紧 随其后的是中来股份、捷佳伟创，净流入资金分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts withdrawn from companies across different sectors, particularly in the electric equipment and battery industries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - TBEA Co., Ltd. experienced a capital outflow of 1.452 billion yuan, with a decline in stock price of 4.09% [2]. - Zhejiang Wenlian reported a capital outflow of 992 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.28% [2]. - Hunan Silver saw a capital outflow of 900 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 2.82% [2]. - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a capital outflow of 873 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 2.91% [2]. - Dongfang Fortune experienced a capital outflow of 817 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.63% [2]. Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Leading Intelligent reported a capital outflow of 733 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 2.7% [2]. - Tianji Co., Ltd. faced a capital outflow of 666 million yuan, with a significant stock price drop of 9.09% [2]. - Xinyi Communication had a capital outflow of 613 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 0.73% [2]. - Tianci Materials saw a capital outflow of 570 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 5.28% [2]. - Wangsu Science & Technology experienced a capital outflow of 558 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 3.56% [2]. Group 3: Other Companies with Capital Outflows - Longi Green Energy reported a capital outflow of 547 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 0.93% [3]. - Dufeng Co., Ltd. faced a capital outflow of 533 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 7.35% [3]. - China Satellite had a capital outflow of 515 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.62% [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology experienced a capital outflow of 458 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 0.89% [3]. - Salt Lake Potash reported a capital outflow of 437 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 2.67% [3].

Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 27,254.40 billion yuan on January 26, increasing by 19.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin transactions on the same day was 3,114.07 billion yuan, an increase of 79.37 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.48% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries, 17 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with a net inflow of 3.235 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included electric power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [3] Group 3 - A total of 53 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Ping An leading at a net inflow of 444 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows included Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Western Mining, Maiwei Co., Oriental Fortune, Luoyang Molybdenum, Heng Rui Medicine, TBEA, and Industrial Bank [3][4]