金融界4月9日消息，上证指数低开高走，沪深300汽车与零部件指数 (300汽车，L11506)报9285.43点。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当沪深300指数调整样本时，沪深300行业指数样本 随之进行相应调整。在样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对沪深300行业指数 样本进行相应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 数据统计显示，沪深300汽车与零部件指数近一个月下跌10.23%，近三个月上涨0.40%，年至今下跌 5.11%。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比51.54%、深圳证券交易所占比 48.46%。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数持仓样本的行业来看，乘用车占比72.16%、汽车内饰与外饰占比16.55%、 轮胎占比4.01%、汽车系统部件占比3.93%、汽车电子占比3.35 ...

上汽集团 600104.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月08日） | 14.62 元 | | 目标价格 | 21.40 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 21.3/11.49 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 1,157,530/1,157,530 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 169,231 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -7 -10.85 -18.28 -1.81 相对表现% -0.91 -3.41 -14.63 -5.04 沪深 300% -6.09 -7.44 -3.65 3.23 | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | 袁俊轩 | yuanjunxuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052307 ...

证券研究报告 上汽集团 (600104 CH) 25Q1 业绩预期增长，改革效果初体现 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 08 日│中国内地 | 乘用车 | 公司发布公告披露 25Q1 经营情况，预计 25Q1 实现归母净利润 30~32 亿 元，同比+10~18%。集团自 24 年完成管理层换届后，持续加大改革力度， 24H2 产销量逐步走出去库存阶段，实现筑底回升，25Q1 实现批发销量 94.5 万，同比+13.3%，销量继续保持企稳回升势头，改革效果初体现。我们看 好上汽集团持续的改革落地，公司有望迎接转型重生，维持"买入"评级。 25Q1 集团销量稳中有升，自主表现亮眼 25Q1 集团批售 94.5 万辆，同比+13.27%，终端交付超过 108 万，库存进 一步降低，其中 3 月集团整车批售 38.6 万，同环比分别+1.1%/+30.8%。分 品牌看，25Q1 上汽乘用车批售 16.4 万，同比+0.8%，其国内市场销量同比 +58.7%；上汽通用五菱批售 35.3 万，同比+57.6%；上汽大通批售 5 ...

证券代码：600104 证券简称：上汽集团 公告编号：临 2025－009 （一）经营期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日 （二）经营情况 经财务部门初步测算，公司预计 2025 年第一季度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为 30 亿元到 32 亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加 2.9 亿元到 4.9 亿元，同比增加 10%到 18%。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 经财务部门初步测算，公司预计2025年第一季度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为30亿元到32亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加2.9 亿元到4.9亿元，同比增加10%到18%。 一、 本期经营业绩情况 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 董事会 二、 上年同期经营情况 （一）归属于母公司所有者的净利润：27.1 亿元。 （二）每股收益：0.236 元。 三、 本期经营业绩增加的主要原因 今年以来，公司深入推进全面深化改革，加快内部业务的梳理整 合，努力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [14] Core Insights - The impact of the recent tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China is relatively limited for the automotive sector, primarily affecting parts exports. Strong parts manufacturers have established global production capabilities, particularly in Mexico, which benefits from zero tariffs under the USMCA agreement [2][10] - The overall automotive sales for the week of March 24-30 reached 482,500 units, a 12.3% increase compared to the previous week. New energy vehicle sales were 241,900 units, reflecting an 8.0% increase, with a penetration rate of 50%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous week [9][10] - The A-share automotive sector experienced a decline of 3.60%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.37% [9] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have a limited short-term impact on the automotive sector, with parts exports being the primary concern. Companies can potentially shift production to Mexico or other low-tariff regions to mitigate costs [10][23] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance in the A-share market has been weak, with various sub-sectors showing declines, particularly in commercial vehicle parts and tires [9][11] Sales Data - Total automotive sales for March 2025 reached 1.685 million units, a 23.4% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicles accounting for 890,000 units, up 27.7% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the complete vehicle segment and parts manufacturers with strong overseas layouts, particularly those involved in smart driving technologies and robotics [11][12] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include BYD, XPeng Motors, and Geely for smart driving vehicles, and Top Group and Fulin Precision for robotics [11][12] Parts Manufacturing - Some parts manufacturers may face pressure due to declining Tesla sales, but recovery is expected with new vehicle launches in Q2. Companies with operations in Mexico are less affected by the tariffs [12][40]

"上汽集团的战略从来没有错过。但我们必须承认，战略落地方面存在问题。我们要清楚过去好在哪里，问题出在哪里，只有这样才能采取一些正确的措施 和方法。"日前，贾健旭在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时谈到了其对上汽集团过去的复盘与未来的思考。在贾健旭的分享中，上汽集团已经厘清了问题 所在，找到了战略落地的方法，开始"大象转身"。 每经记者 丛刚 黄辛旭 每经实习编辑 余婷婷 去年以来，上汽集团总裁贾健旭带领团队掀起内部改革潮，旨在重新定位企业并强化护城河。为解决战略落地问题，上汽与华为达成深度合作，学习其IPD 体系以提升产品定义能力，并计划共同开发新能源智能汽车。 同时，上汽整合大乘用车板块，成立执管会优化决策流程，大规模调整管理层架构以提高资源整合效率。贾健旭表示，未来竞争焦点在于智能化，上汽将通 过自主掌控主被动安全系统、深耕全产业链垂直整合能力，构建核心竞争优势。"上汽集团应该怎样重新定位自己？""上汽集团如何找到一个新的位 置？""上汽集团下一阶段的护城河在哪里？"这些是上汽集团总裁贾健旭最近常常思考的问题，也是他所有行动和布局的锚点。 自去年履新上汽集团总裁之后，贾健旭几乎没有对外接受过采访，而是选择"刀 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits for domestic parts companies building factories in Mexico due to the new tariff policies announced by Trump, which will not impose additional tariffs on certain goods [9][12] - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robotics and automotive supply chain investment opportunities, with expectations for profitability and valuation increases [3][14] - The anticipated growth in market share for competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology by 2025 is emphasized [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies such as SAIC Motor, BYD, and Changan Automobile, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][15] - Specific companies highlighted include: - SAIC Motor (buy) - Changan Automobile (buy) - BYD (not rated) - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (buy) - GAC Group (buy) [15] Market Performance - The report notes a decline in the automotive sector, with a 3.5% drop in the CITIC automotive sector index, underperforming the CSI 300 index [17] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the automotive sector, including New Aluminum Era and Jiuyi Co., while also noting significant declines in others like Junda Co. [17][18] Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics indicate a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in March, with total sales reaching 2.41 million units [26] - Retail sales also saw a 12% increase year-on-year, totaling 1.89 million units in March [26] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of new models such as the AITO M8 and M9, which are expected to boost sales for the brand [2][14] - It also highlights the performance of various companies, with notable growth in revenue and profit for firms like Seres and Bojun Technology [39][40]

从指数持仓来看，中证南方小康产业指数十大权重分别为：中国联通（5.93%）、上汽集团 （4.76%）、中国建筑（4.36%）、宝钢股份（3.48%）、伊利股份（2.71%）、海螺水泥（2.57%）、万 华化学（2.3%）、交通银行（2.28%）、国电电力（2.15%）、中国移动（2.12%）。 从中证南方小康产业指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证南方小康产业指数持仓样本的行业来看，原材料占比20.84%、金融占比19.83%、工业占比 18.83%、公用事业占比9.79%、可选消费占比8.39%、通信服务占比8.05%、能源占比5.23%、医药卫生 占比3.63%、主要消费占比3.02%、房地产占比1.29%、信息技术占比1.11%。 金融界4月3日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证南方小康产业指数 (小康指数，000901)下跌0.17%，报 5739.36点，成交额632.55亿元。 数据统计显示，中证南方小康产业指数近一个月上涨0.37%，近三个月下跌1.49%，年至今下跌4.63%。 据了解，中证南方小康产业指数从上证180指数样本中选取先进制造业、现代服务业和基础产业最具代 ...

金融界4月3日消息，上证指数低开高走，上证汽车指数 (上证汽车，950070)报6191.11点。 数据统计显示，上证汽车指数近一个月下跌0.53%，近三个月上涨2.85%，年至今下跌0.75%。 从上证汽车指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 从上证汽车指数持仓样本的行业来看，汽车零部件与轮胎占比57.81%、乘用车占比33.32%、交通运输 设备占比8.11%、汽车经销商与汽车服务占比0.76%。 从指数持仓来看，上证汽车指数十大权重分别为：赛力斯（12.76%）、福耀玻璃（12.4%）、上汽集团 （9.78%）、拓普集团（5.32%）、赛轮轮胎（5.14%）、宇通客车（4.84%）、长城汽车（4.3%）、北 汽蓝谷（3.96%）、华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 2025 PE average valuation of 20 times [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is making progress in its reforms and partnerships, particularly with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance. The domestic sales of the company's self-owned brands saw a significant year-on-year improvement, with a 58.7% increase in the first quarter [10]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project EPS of 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a predicted revenue of 611.67 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8% [4][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720.99 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 726.20 billion CNY in 2023. However, a significant drop to 611.67 billion CNY is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.25 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.88 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 16.12 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a forecasted drop to 1.77 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12.38 billion CNY in 2025 and 13.39 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% by 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% in 2026 [4][11].