Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price of 18.63 RMB, reflecting a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is entering a recovery phase with a narrowing decline in performance metrics, benefiting from accelerated store openings and improving operational efficiency [4][9]. - Q3 2025 revenue was 2.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.60%, while net profit was 0.36 billion RMB, down 2.21%. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 5.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 1.81%, with net profit increasing by 4.36% to 0.75 billion RMB [4][9]. - Key performance indicators showed RevPAR at -2.8%, occupancy rate (OCC) at -0.8%, and average daily rate (ADR) at -1.7%, indicating a recovery trend compared to previous quarters [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025E are 7.63 billion RMB, with a net profit of 0.85 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.7% from the previous year [3][4]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.79%, with sales expense ratio at 8.85% and general & administrative expense ratio at 9.92% [4][9]. - The company opened 387 new stores in Q3 2025, accelerating from 364 in Q2 and 300 in Q1, indicating a strong recovery in core brand expansion [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The economic hotel sector is experiencing a collective retreat, with major players like Jinjiang, Shoulv, and Huazhu shifting focus towards mid-to-high-end hotels, indicating a decline in the economic hotel segment's viability [7][9][40]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Economic hotels, represented by brands like Buding, are struggling, with key performance indicators such as RevPAR declining year-on-year [6][9]. - By the end of 2024, the proportion of economic hotel rooms is expected to drop to 54%, with major hotel chains adding significantly fewer economic hotels compared to mid-to-high-end options [7][38]. - The average room rates for major hotel chains have been rising, contrasting with the stagnant performance of economic hotels [8][38]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The hotel industry operates on a model similar to airlines, where fixed costs are high, and revenue is highly dependent on occupancy rates [11]. - Economic hotels face inherent vulnerabilities due to limited pricing power and low elasticity of demand, making them less competitive against mid-to-high-end hotels [13][14]. - The trend towards consolidation in the hotel industry has led to increased market concentration, with the top three hotel groups controlling 75% of the market by 2016 [27][32]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a growing consumer preference for mid-to-high-end hotels, which offer more amenities and services, leading to higher occupancy rates compared to economic hotels [42][46]. - The rise of online travel agencies (OTAs) has created a complex relationship with hotels, but both parties benefit from the shift towards mid-to-high-end offerings [48]. - Economic hotels are increasingly losing market share as consumer spending shifts towards higher-quality accommodations, especially in a recovering economy [49][50]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The economic hotel segment is expected to continue facing challenges, with many operators struggling to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences [20][40]. - Predictions suggest that mid-range hotels will dominate the market in the coming years, reshaping the competitive landscape of the hotel industry [52].

Core Insights - The hotel and catering sector experienced a 1.0% increase on November 3, with *ST Yunwang leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Sector Performance - The following table summarizes the performance of key stocks in the hotel and catering sector: | Code | Name | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume (10,000) | Turnover (Million) | |--------|--------------|---------------|------------|------------------|---------------------| | 002306 | *ST Yunwang | 1.93 | 3.21% | 45.20 | 87.83 | | 600754 | Jinjiang Hotel| 23.06 | 2.44% | 18.16 | 414.00 | | 000721 | Xi'an Catering| 8.75 | 1.86% | 13.84 | 120.00 | | 000428 | Huaten Hotel | 3.31 | 1.53% | 20.52 | 67.77 | | 002186 | Quanjude | 11.60 | 0.78% | 4.96 | 57.26 | | 301073 | Junxi Hotel | 21.61 | 0.56% | 2.90 | 62.48 | | 601007 | Jinling Hotel | 7.45 | -0.13% | 7.33 | 54.66 | | 600258 | Shoulv Hotel | 14.46 | -0.48% | 9.53 | 138.00 | | 605108 | Tongqinglou | 18.78 | -0.69% | 1.88 | 35.35 | [1] Capital Flow - The hotel and catering sector saw a net inflow of 5.90 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 55.97 million yuan [1] - The following table details the capital flow for key stocks: | Code | Name | Main Net Inflow (Million) | Main Net Ratio (%) | Speculative Net Inflow (Million) | Speculative Net Ratio (%) | Retail Net Inflow (Million) | Retail Net Ratio (%) | |--------|--------------|---------------------------|---------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------| | 600754 | Jinjiang Hotel| 15.99 | 4.85 | 1.53 | 0.46 | -17.51 | -5.31 | | 600258 | Shoulv Hotel | 6.32 | 5.53 | 4.25 | 3.72 | -10.57 | -9.25 | | 002306 | *ST Yunwang | 4.97 | 6.44 | -0.49 | -0.63 | -4.48 | -5.81 | | 000721 | Xi'an Catering | 1.28 | 1.75 | 0.28 | 0.38 | -1.56 | -2.13 | | 002186 | Quanjude | -1.83 | -3.74 | -0.20 | -0.42 | 2.03 | 4.16 | | 301073 | Junxi Hotel | -2.41 | -4.62 | -1.75 | -3.35 | 4.16 | 7.97 | | 605108 | Tongqinglou | -4.92 | -16.21 | -1.22 | -4.01 | 6.13 | 20.22 | | 000428 | Huaten Hotel | -5.30 | -9.07 | -1.37 | -2.35 | 6.67 | 11.42 | | 601007 | Jinling Hotel | -8.20 | -18.79 | -1.33 | -3.05 | 9.53 | 21.84 | [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the consumer services industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims to significantly enhance consumer spending through various measures, including increasing public service expenditure and improving consumer rights protection [4]. - It suggests that the current transformation in China's service consumption sector presents a prime investment opportunity, particularly in service consumption platforms, hotel groups with improving margins, and the tourism sector [4]. Industry Overview - The consumer services sector consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 457.1 billion yuan [1]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a decline of 7.7%, while the 12-month performance indicates a growth of 9.2% [2]. Market Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 0.45%, outperforming the overall A-share market which rose by 0.39% [7]. - Notable stocks in the sector include Dalian Shengya, Chuangye Heima, and Fangzhi Technology, which showed significant gains [4]. Key Announcements - Major announcements include Meituan's issuance of $2 billion in senior bonds with a subscription rate exceeding 5.7 times, and Guangzhou Restaurant's third-quarter revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.66% [31][32]. Upcoming Events - Several companies in the sector are scheduled to hold shareholder meetings in November, including Guangzhou Restaurant and Yunnan Tourism, which may provide further insights into their operational strategies and financial performance [35][36]. Industry News - Recent developments include the collaboration between Mixue Ice City and Hainan Airlines to launch a co-branded flight, and the introduction of pet-friendly travel products by Zhongxin Tourism, indicating innovation in service offerings [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The economic hotel sector in China is facing significant challenges, with many brands, including budget hotels like Pod Inn, being forced to exit the market due to financial difficulties and declining performance metrics such as RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Hotel Sector Challenges - Pod Inn was delisted due to three consecutive years of negative net assets, highlighting the financial strain on budget hotels [5]. - The average room rate for budget hotels has decreased, with major players like Jinjiang, Shoulv, and Huazhu adding fewer budget hotels compared to mid-range and high-end options [5][6]. - The occupancy rates for mid-range hotels have surpassed those of budget hotels, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards higher-quality accommodations [5][6][26]. Group 2: Business Model Vulnerabilities - The business model of budget hotels is inherently fragile due to low pricing power and high reliance on occupancy rates for revenue [7][8]. - Budget hotels typically offer limited services, which restrict their ability to increase prices compared to mid-range hotels that provide additional amenities [7][8]. - The economic downturn has exacerbated the challenges faced by budget hotels, leading to a slower recovery compared to mid-range brands like Atour, which reported significant revenue growth [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The hotel industry has seen a consolidation trend, with major chains increasing their market share and focusing on mid-range and high-end hotel segments [10][20]. - The chain hotel model has proven more resilient, with membership systems contributing significantly to revenue stability [17][20]. - The overall hotel supply remains high, particularly in the budget segment, leading to intensified competition and reduced profitability for budget hotels [29][32]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift towards mid-range hotels is expected to continue, driven by consumer preferences and the increasing market power of established hotel chains [31][34]. - The economic hotel segment may struggle to recover fully, as evidenced by declining demand and stagnant revenue growth despite increased marketing expenditures [32][34]. - Industry experts predict that mid-range hotels will dominate the market in the coming years, reshaping the competitive landscape of the hotel industry in China [34].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but net profit showed a positive growth, indicating resilience in its business model and effective cost management [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 755 million yuan, an increase of 4.4% [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 2.121 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, and net profit of 358 million yuan, down 2.2% [4]. - The hotel business saw a profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year, totaling 846 million yuan, despite a 2.0% decline in revenue [5]. Group 2: Business Segments - The hotel management business experienced a revenue growth of 12.9%, which helped mitigate the negative impact of an 8.1% decline in hotel operations revenue [5]. - The scenic area business generated revenue of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a profit of 185 million yuan, down 0.3% [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the company's RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy rates for all hotels (excluding light management hotels) were 191 yuan, 259 yuan, and 73.6%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, 2.0%, and 0.3 percentage points [6]. - The economic hotel segment demonstrated resilience, with RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy rates increasing by 1.4%, 0.7%, and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while mid-to-high-end hotels faced declines [6]. Group 4: Expansion and Management - In Q3 2025, the company opened 387 new hotels, including 4 direct-operated and 383 franchised locations, contributing to a total of 1,051 new openings in the first three quarters, on track to meet the annual target of 1,500 [7]. - The proportion of standard management hotels among new openings reached 56.6%, with a 71.0% share in the pipeline, reflecting a 17.5 percentage point increase year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Cost Control and Profitability - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 40.7%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 23.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points [9]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 44.8%, with a net profit margin of 16.9%, remaining stable year-on-year [10]. Group 6: Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain its target of opening 1,500 new hotels for the year, focusing on standard management and mid-to-high-end hotels to optimize its store structure [11]. - Product innovation continues with positive market feedback on the new "Home 4.0" product, and membership initiatives targeting university students are enhancing user engagement [11].

Core Insights - The travel industry is experiencing a significant promotional event for the Double Eleven shopping festival, with platforms like Fliggy offering unprecedented hotel package deals that have attracted a large number of consumers [3][4][5] - Major hotel brands, including Marriott, Wanda, and Hilton, have reported record sales during this promotional period, with some packages selling tens of thousands of units [5][6] - The competition among travel platforms has intensified, with Fliggy, Ctrip, Meituan, and others aggressively marketing their offerings, leading to price wars and increased consumer interest [7][8] Group 1: Promotional Strategies - Fliggy launched its promotional campaign on October 20, showcasing a wide variety of travel products and significant discounts, resulting in record sales figures [4][5] - Many hotels are offering low prices and additional benefits, such as no price hikes during holidays, to encourage immediate bookings and increase redemption rates [6][8] - The number of participating hotels and travel products has doubled compared to last year, indicating a robust response from the industry [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for hotel bookings has become fierce, with platforms like Meituan and Ctrip also entering the fray, offering similar or lower-priced packages [7][8] - High-end hotels, traditionally priced at over 10,000 yuan per night, are now offering discounted packages to attract consumers during this promotional period [8] - The overall hotel market is facing pressure due to increased competition and a rise in the number of new hotel openings, with over 2,173 new hotels launched in the first half of the year [9] Group 3: Market Performance - Major hotel groups have reported declines in key performance indicators in the Greater China region, with RevPAR and average daily rates showing negative growth for several brands [8][9] - The need for hotels to boost sales and cash flow has led to a greater emphasis on promotional events like Double Eleven, which is seen as a critical opportunity for performance recovery [9][10] - Fliggy, having been integrated into Alibaba's e-commerce group, is under pressure to deliver strong results during this promotional period to validate its market position [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Shoulu Hotel has shown a slight increase of 2.03% in recent trading, reflecting a stable market performance despite a slight decline in revenue year-on-year [1][2]. Company Performance - As of October 31, Shoulu Hotel's stock price reached 14.59 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 16.291 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 1.96%, with a 2.03% rise over the last five trading days, a 1.95% decline over the last 20 days, and a 4.74% increase over the last 60 days [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Shoulu Hotel reported a revenue of 5.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.81%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 755 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.36% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shoulu Hotel was 44,300, an increase of 2.55% from the previous period, with an average of 25,177 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.48% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.834 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 648 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 62.6412 million shares, an increase of 11.2777 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable institutional shareholders include the Fortune China Tourism Theme ETF and the China Europe Pension Mixed A fund, both of which have increased their holdings [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shoulv Hotel is a leading comprehensive tourism service enterprise in China, with strong market competitiveness and a diverse portfolio of well-known hotel brands [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Shoulv Hotel reported revenue of 5.782 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 3.642 billion yuan [2] - The main business segments include hotel operations (2.234 billion yuan, 61.02%), hotel management (1.131 billion yuan, 30.89%), and scenic area operations (296 million yuan, 8.08%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 781 million yuan, also ranking second in the industry, exceeding the industry average of 290 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Shoulv Hotel's debt-to-asset ratio was 51.11%, lower than the previous year's 53.94% and the industry average of 57.79%, indicating strong solvency [3] - The gross profit margin for the period was 40.70%, an increase from 39.59% year-on-year and above the industry average of 29.21% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 2.55% to 44,300, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 2.48% to 25,200 [5] - Notable shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with significant increases in holdings for some [5] Group 4: Management Compensation - The total compensation for General Manager Sun Jian in 2024 was 7.7477 million yuan, a decrease of 1.0354 million yuan from 2023 [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts from Huatai Securities and Dongwu Securities have adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, citing pressures on RevPAR and the impact of store closures [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a slight decline in RevPAR due to increased competition and a rise in the number of closed stores, which has impacted revenue and net profit growth. However, the ongoing optimization of hotel structure and a focus on mid-to-high-end offerings are expected to enhance profitability in the long term [2][4]. - The company has a substantial number of reserve stores, which is anticipated to support short-term performance growth. The continuous improvement in structure and brand is expected to further enhance profitability [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.36% [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.121 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 358 million yuan, down 2.21% year-on-year [4]. - The company opened 387 new stores in Q3 2025, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, while closing 154 stores, an increase of 42 stores year-on-year [4]. Operational Metrics - The company's RevPAR for all hotels in Q3 2025 was 165 yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 240 yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [4]. - The occupancy rate (Occ) was 68.9%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Structural Optimization - The company continues to optimize its structure, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end hotel rooms increasing to 42.5%, a year-on-year growth of 1.4 percentage points [4]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 44.1% in Q3 2025, driven by the increase in the management business and the optimization of the hotel structure [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.81 yuan and 0.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17.65 and 16.15 times [2][6].