证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 08 月 20 日 万华化学（600309.SH） 公司主营业务稳健，看好新材料板块中长期发展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 165,565 | 175,361 | 197,407 | 224,104 | 252,858 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 13.8 | 5.9 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 12.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 16,234 | 16,816 | 18,453 | 22,743 | 25,865 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -34.1 | 3.6 | 9.7 | 23.3 | 13.7 | | ROE（%） | 21.0 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 19.1 | 18.6 | | EPS 最新摊薄（ ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 产能释放带动产销规模提升，多项目稳步推进 事件：万华化学发布 2024 年中报，实现营业收入 970.67 亿元，同比增长 10.8%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 81.74 亿元，同比下降 4.6%，扣除非 经常性损益后的净利润 81.0 亿元，同比减少 2.54%。按 31.40 亿股的总股 本计，实现每股收益 2.60 元，每股经营现金流为 3.28 元。第二季度实现 营业收入 509.06 亿元，同比增长 11.42%、环比增长 10.28%；实现归属于 上市公司股东的净利润 40.17 亿元，同比减少 11.03%、环比减少 3.39%； 折合单季度 EPS 1.28 元。 公司拟实施 2024 年半年度利润分配，以总股本 31.40 亿股为基数，向全 体股东每 10 股派发 5.20 元现金红利（含税）。 产销量规模增加，毛利率持稳，非经常性因素影响公司业绩。2024 年上半 年，公司主营业务中聚氨酯系列、石化系列、精细化学品及新材料系列分 别实现营收 354.55、395.75、129.79 亿元，较去年同期分别变动+26.85、 +34.43、+17.15 亿元，yo ...

2024 年度第二期中期票据（科创票据）发行结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2023 年 3 月 18 日召开的 第八届董事会 2023 年第一次会议审议通过了《关于申请非金融企业债务融资工具 （DFI）到期继续注册的议案》，并经公司于 2023 年 5 月 12 日召开的 2022 年度股 东大会表决通过，同意公司向中国银行间市场交易商协会申请到期继续注册非金融 企业债务融资工具（DFI），并在中国境内发行超短期融资券、短期融资券、中期 票据、永续票据、资产支持票据、绿色债务融资工具等产品。 公司于 2023 年 6 月 30 日收到中国银行间市场交易商协会核发的《接受注册通 知书》（中市协注[2023]DFI36 号），中国银行间市场交易商协会接受公司债务融 资工具注册，注册自通知书落款之日起 2 年内有效，在注册有效期内可分期发行超 短期融资券、短期融资券、中期票据、永续票据、资产支持票据、绿色债务融资工 具等产品。 公司根据自身资金计划安排 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is strengthening its advantages in polyurethane and is expected to continue growing in new materials [3] - The company has a high degree of integration in the global polyurethane industry chain and is expanding at a low cost, with MDI capacity expected to increase from 3.1 million tons in 2023 to 5.3 million tons by 2027, raising its global market share from 31% to 42% [3][31] - The company has shown resilience during industry downturns, with its polyurethane segment revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year in 2023, while competitors faced declines [3] Summary by Sections Polyurethane - Multiple overseas MDI facilities have faced force majeure events, leading to low operating rates and high-cost capacities potentially exiting the market [3] - The company’s MDI exports have been strong, with domestic exports increasing by 2% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 [3] - The company’s polyurethane segment has demonstrated superior risk resistance during downturns, with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points in 2023 [3] Petrochemicals - The petrochemical segment is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with the price difference index at a cyclical low as of August 18, 2024 [4] - The company plans to diversify raw materials for its ethylene project, which is expected to reduce costs [4] New Materials - The company invests 3 to 4 billion yuan annually in R&D, driving growth in new materials [4] - New projects, including a 20,000-ton POE plant launched in June 2024, are expected to enhance profitability [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 190.6 billion yuan, 230.5 billion yuan, and 261.8 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 19.0 billion yuan, 25.5 billion yuan, and 31.4 billion yuan [4][10] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, justifying the "Buy" rating [4] Market Position - The company is positioned to increase its MDI market share, with domestic MDI capacity expected to rise from 437,000 tons in 2023 to 577,000 tons by 2026 [6][31] - The company’s TDI capacity is projected to grow from 95,000 tons in 2023 to 147,000 tons by 2026, increasing its global market share from 29% to 38% [31] Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong outlook, with projected P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][10]

证券研究报告 化工 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 16 日 周期底部配置价值提升，盈利稳健看好长期发展 ——万华化学（600309.SH）2024 年中报点评 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 市场数据 2024 年 08 月 15 日 当前价格（元） 70.36 52 周 价 格 区 间 66.78-99.10 （元） 总市值（百万元） 220,912.57 流通市值（百万 220,912.57 元） 总股本（万股） 313,974.66 流通股（万股） 313,974.66 近一月换手（%） 10.04 分析师：孙伯文 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzqgs.com 联系人：彭越 执业证书编号：S0230124010004 邮箱：pengy@hlzqgs.com 事件： 公司于 2024 年 8 月 12 日发布 2024 年度中期报告，2024 年 H1 公司实现营业收入 970.67 亿元，同比+10.77%，归母净利润为 81.74 亿元，同比下降 4.60%；2024 年 Q2 公司营业收入 509.06 亿 元，较 2024 年 Q1 的 461.61 亿元环 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 万华化学（600309）公司半年报点评 2024 年 08 月 19 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 08[Table_StockInfo 月 16日收盘价（元）] | 70.71 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 66.78-99.10 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 3140/3140 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 222011/222011 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《市场外疲、内卷业绩仍然稳步增长，第二增 | | | 长曲线电池材料业务加速发展》 | 2024.03.21 | | 《新材料专题研究（2）- | 万华化学：高端新材 | | 料及精细化学品不断突破，电池材料打造第二 | | | 增长曲线》2024.0 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 70.71 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 99.10/66.78 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.30 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 222,011 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,879.43/8,349.87 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------| | 基础数据: | 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 29.14 | | 资产负债率% | 66.14 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,140/3,140 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-1609-161 ...

万华化学 600309.SH 公司研究 | 深度报告 万华化学系列之十一：福建合作项目打开 新篇章 核心观点 近期，万华化学公告披露计划将与阿布扎比国家石油（ADNOC）为主的联合体，以 50%:50%的持股比例共同在福州投资建设 160 万吨/年的特种聚烯烃一体化项目。我们认 为对于两家企业来说，都打开了发展的新篇章。具体如下： ⚫ ADNOC：平衡策略下的东进。ADNOC 的发展思路与阿联酋国家发展规划高度契 合。2019 年后，阿联酋主动调整了外交策略，开始转向偏中立的外交方式。目前其 在欧洲与美国已有较多化工产业投资，但在中国还几乎没有投资。特别是与中东大 国沙特头号公司沙特阿美比较，ADNOC 在国内的产业影响力远远不足。从阿联酋的 外交策略、ADNOC 现有的产业布局、对沙特阿美的参考与竞争等各角度分析，我们 认为未来 ADNOC 在国内开展大规模产业投资是大势所趋。 ⚫ 万华化学：从主导到共赢。本次合作对于万华来说也是发展方式的突破，ADNOC 在 国内重大投资的代表性意义、两家企业的长期互信、万华成熟高效的化工产业能 力、绿电资源布局等条件为本次合作奠定了良好基础。以较有代表性的博禄化学与 卫 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **107.09 CNY** [2] Core Views - The company, Wanhua Chemical, plans to jointly invest with ADNOC in a **1.6 million tons/year special polyolefin integrated project** in Fuzhou, marking a new chapter for both companies [1] - The project leverages ADNOC's domestic investment significance, long-term trust, and Wanhua's efficient chemical industry capabilities, along with green energy resources [1] - The project's profitability is expected to be comparable to Borouge, with **gross margins of 48%, 44%, and 37% in 2021-2023** respectively, driven by product differentiation and ethane resource advantages [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be **5.82, 6.89, and 8.00 CNY** respectively [2] - A **15% valuation premium** is applied due to the company's superior long-term ROE and historical growth, resulting in a **18x PE multiple** for 2024 [2] ADNOC's Strategic Expansion - ADNOC's development aligns with the UAE's national strategy, focusing on **sustainable assets** to hedge against future declines in oil and gas revenues [13] - ADNOC has been actively expanding its chemical assets, including **5 million tons of polyolefin capacity** in Ruwais and a **1 million tons ethane cracker** in the US [13][14] - ADNOC's recent capital operations, such as acquiring stakes in OMV and Fertiglobe, indicate a shift towards **large-scale industrial investments in China** [13][15] Wanhua Chemical's Strategic Shift - The collaboration with ADNOC represents a shift from **dominance to partnership** for Wanhua, marking a new phase in its international development [21] - The project will utilize **Borstar technology** from Borealis, with Wanhua providing industrial support and green energy solutions [22] - The project is expected to benefit from **low carbon emissions** due to the use of green electricity, with a **310MW offshore wind power project** already approved [22] Economic Assessment - The project's economic viability is supported by **Borstar technology** and **ethane resource advantages**, similar to Borouge's operations [25] - Borouge's **product premium** contributed **19% and 15% to gross margins in 2022 and 2023** respectively, which is expected to be replicated in the Fuzhou project [26] - Despite higher ethane transportation costs in China, Wanhua's operational efficiency and joint ethane fleet with ADNOC are expected to offset these disadvantages [27][29] Comparative Analysis - Borouge's **investment intensity** for its ethane cracker projects is significantly higher than that of domestic companies like Satellite Chemical, with **single-ton ethylene investment intensity** exceeding **2.45 million CNY** [20] - Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang project demonstrates that **domestic efficiency** can offset resource disadvantages, with **net margins** comparable to Borouge after adjusting for product premiums [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10][20] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 97.067 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.60% year-on-year to 8.174 billion yuan [4][5] - The company is progressing with new projects, including a joint venture to build a 1.6 million ton specialty polyolefin project, indicating a move towards internationalization [3][10] - The company is expected to experience high growth in the future as new capacities come online, with projected revenues of 190.616 billion yuan, 230.538 billion yuan, and 261.770 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42%, but a net profit of 4.017 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 11.03% year-on-year [1][4] - The operating cash flow for Q2 2024 was 7.208 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 15.31%, a slight decrease compared to the previous year [1] Segment Performance - The petrochemical segment generated a revenue of 39.575 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 4.52%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.22 percentage points [2] - The polyurethane segment saw a revenue of 12.979 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.99%, although it decreased by 5.06 percentage points year-on-year [6][12] - The company’s MDI production capacity is set to double, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [10][18] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 5.20 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2024 [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.06 yuan, 8.12 yuan, and 10.01 yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [11][20] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable at around 19% for 2024, increasing to 22% by 2026 [11][20]