Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 19.36, down from the previous target of 20.00, while the current price is 16.09 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with a high dividend payout emphasizing shareholder returns and driving value reassessment. The establishment of a world-class refining platform is expected to create opportunities in green and low-carbon new materials [2]. - Due to rising crude oil costs squeezing chemical product spreads, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been lowered to 1.21 and 1.46 respectively, with a new 2026 EPS forecast of 1.91 [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 234.87 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.61%, and a net profit of 6.91 billion, up 197.83% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 61.7 billion, with a net profit of 1.20 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131.90% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.87 billion in 2023, representing 56% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, which significantly exceeds the capital raised from the market since its restructuring in 2016 [2]. - Leveraging its "large chemical" platform, the company is focusing on emerging industries, with new material capacities such as high-performance resins and functional films expected to be released [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 234.87 billion in 2023, with projections of 264.96 billion for 2024 and 291.46 billion for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 12% and 10% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 6.91 billion, with forecasts of 8.51 billion for 2024 and 10.26 billion for 2025, indicating growth rates of 23% and 21% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit margin for 2023 was 5.9%, with projections of 4.3% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 11.5%, with expectations of 12.4% in 2024 and 13.0% in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has significantly improved its profitability in 2023, with a 197.83% year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by growth in the refining segment and stable sales in polyester products [3][4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 266.9 billion, 278.7 billion, and 289.3 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 83.01 billion, 103.72 billion, and 119.90 billion [9] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: 2023 revenue reached 234.79 billion, a 5.61% increase from 2022 [3] - **Net Profit**: 2023 net profit was 6.905 billion, up 197.83% year-on-year [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow decreased by 9.32% to 23.536 billion in 2023 [3] - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin for 2023 was 11.25%, an increase of 3.04 percentage points from the previous year [3] - **Debt Ratios**: The company's debt-to-equity ratio was 78.1% in 2022, expected to be 79.3% in 2024 [11] Industry Overview - The company operates in the oil and petrochemical industry, which is currently experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, positively impacting the polyester product price spreads [2][8] - The refining segment has shown strong performance, with significant increases in gasoline and diesel crack spreads in 2023 [4] Future Growth Potential - The company is advancing several new material projects, including lithium battery separators and biodegradable plastics, which are expected to enhance its growth prospects [9] - The company maintains a high cash dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.55 per share for 2023, reflecting a 56.07% payout ratio [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 234.87 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.62%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.91 billion yuan, a significant increase of 197.83% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with the aromatics industry chain showing good profit recovery and polyester fibers demonstrating a positive trend. The sales volume of PTA increased by 33.99% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 5.13% [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in high-end chemical new materials, with several key projects expected to come online in the first half of 2024 [6][7]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 262.37 billion yuan, 276.48 billion yuan, and 285.32 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.90 billion yuan, 11.47 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan for the same years [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.41 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.90 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][8]. - The report suggests a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.0-2.2 for 2024, corresponding to a stock price range of 19.42-21.36 yuan [7].

石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月15日 600346.SH 恒力石化 买入 归母净利润大幅增长，分红比例明显提升 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 15.20 2023 年公司实现营业总收入 2348.66 亿元，同比增长 5.62%；归母净利润 69.05 亿元，同比增长 197.83%。其中，2023 年四季度实现营业总收入 617.04 亿元， 板 块评级:强于大市 同比增长18.70%，归母净利润12.04亿元，同比增长131.95%，归母净利润大幅 增长，新材料产能有望投放，维持买入评级。 股价表现 支撑评级的要点 2%  归母净利润大幅增长，资产负债率小幅下降。2023年公司依托“大化工”平 台，全产业链一体化布局，营收和归母净利润同比均实现正增长。2023年公 (5%) 司销售毛利率11.25%，同比+3.04 pct，其中，炼化产品、PTA、新材料产品 (12%) 分别实现营收1199.61、726.07、341.15亿元，同比分别-3.00%、+28.20%、 (19%) +17.09%，毛利率分别为+18.53%、-1.36%、10.40%，同比分别+3.22p ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Hengli Petrochemical (600346 SH) [4] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical's 2023 annual report shows significant improvement in performance with full-year revenue of RMB 234 791 billion, a 5 61% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 6 905 billion, a 197 83% YoY surge [1][4] - The company's Q4 2023 revenue reached RMB 61 678 billion, up 18 69% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1 204 billion, a 131 95% YoY increase [1][4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to parent company of RMB 10 19 billion, RMB 12 23 billion, and RMB 14 11 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10 2X, 8 5X, and 7 4X based on the closing price on April 10, 2024 [5] Business Highlights - Aromatics and refined oil products maintain high prosperity, benefiting from strong domestic travel demand and overseas seasonal peak demand [4] - The company is a unique "oil, coal, chemical" integrated petrochemical enterprise with world-class production clusters, significantly reducing operational and logistics costs [4] - Capital expenditure reduction and increased dividend payout ratio strengthen shareholder returns, with 2023 cash dividends accounting for 56 07% of net profit attributable to parent company [5] Project Updates - 1 6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project expected to achieve full production in Q2 2024 [5] - Functional film projects in Suzhou Fenhu base have been put into production, with Nantong base projects expected to start production in H2 2024 [5] - Lithium battery separator projects in Yingkou and Nantong bases are progressing, with full production expected in H1 2024 [5] Financial Performance - 2023 operating cash flow reached RMB 23 536 billion, a 9 32% YoY decrease [1][4] - Gross margin improved to 11% in 2023, with expected further improvement to 14% by 2026 [8] - Net profit margin increased from 2 9% in 2023 to an expected 5 0% in 2026 [8] - Asset-liability ratio decreased from 77 0% in 2023 to an expected 65 7% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [2] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical's 2023 annual report shows significant improvement in profitability, with a total revenue of 234.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.905 billion yuan, up 197.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns with a cash dividend payout ratio of 56.07%, amounting to 3.872 billion yuan in dividends [8] - The new materials projects are entering a concentrated production phase, indicating strong growth potential [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Hengli Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 6.905 billion yuan, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit of 60 billion yuan, reflecting a 473.7% year-on-year growth [3] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 61.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, but a decline in net profit to 1.2 billion yuan, down 48.1% year-on-year [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from refining products decreased by 3.0% to 119.96 billion yuan, while PTA products saw a revenue increase of 28.2% to 72.6 billion yuan [4] - New materials generated 34.1 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 17.1% increase [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained a cost advantage through integrated operations in oil, coal, and chemicals, which has contributed to improved profitability despite market challenges [4] - The report highlights the company's focus on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing dividends as it approaches the end of its current investment cycle [8] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 256.895 billion yuan, 265.678 billion yuan, and 274.678 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 9.897 billion yuan, 12.023 billion yuan, and 13.809 billion yuan [10][42] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in profitability driven by multiple project developments [42]

石油石化/炼化及贸易 公 司 研 恒力石化（600346.SH） 2023 年归母净利润同比高增，看好需求复苏与新材 究 2024年04月11日 料项目放量 投资评级：买入（维持） ——公司信息更新报告 日期 2024/4/11 金益腾（分析师） 龚道琳（分析师） 蒋跨跃（分析师） 当前股价(元) 14.88 jinyiteng@kysec.cn gongdaolin@kysec.cn jiangkuayue@kysec.cn 公 一年最高最低(元) 17.49/11.11 证 书编号：S0790520020002 证书编号：S0790522010001 证书编号：S0790523120001 司  2023年归母净利润同比高增，维持“买入”评级 信 总市值(亿元) 1,047.42 公司发布2023年年报，全年实现营业收入2348.66亿元，同比增长5.62%，实现 息 流通市值(亿元) 1,047.42 更 归母净利润 69.05 亿元，同比增长 197.83%，实现扣非归母净利润 59.97 亿元， 总股本(亿股) 70.39 新 同比增长473.74%。同时，公司拟每股派发现金红利0.55元（含税） ...

其他石化 恒力石化（600346.SH） 买入-B(维持) 业绩略超预期，静待新材料项目如期达产 2024年4月11日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  公司发布 2023 年年度报告，实现营业收入 2347.91 亿元，同比增长 5.61%；实现归母净利润69.05 亿元，同比增加197.83%。其中，2023Q4 实 现营业收入616.78亿元，同比增加18.7%；实现归母净利润12.04亿元，同 比增长131.95%。 事件点评  PTA新材料板块销量大幅增长，炼化板块毛利率提升至18.53%。公司 通过加强资源统筹，优化产销协同，结合原材料价格波动和市场需求变化， 市场数据：2024年4月11日 优先增产高效益产品，实现高质量的效益内生式增长。23年公司炼化产品 收盘价（元）： 14.88 /PTA/新材料产品销量分别为2164.27万吨、1422.2万吨、409.04万吨，同比 年内最高/最低（元）： 17.49/11.11 +1.33%/+33.99%/+25.4%。综合毛利率为11.25%，同比+3.04pct，炼化、PTA、 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 70.39/70.3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 234.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.9 billion yuan, up 198% year-on-year [2] - The downstream product structure is recovering, with overall profitability in refining and chemical fibers improving. The refining segment achieved a net profit of 4.66 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 2.82 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Strong operating cash flow was noted, with 23.5 billion yuan in 2023, and a dividend payout ratio exceeding expectations, reaching 56% [2] - The company is transitioning from high capital expenditure to high dividends as ongoing projects are completed [2] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at 8.7 billion yuan for 2024, 10.6 billion yuan for 2025, and 12.4 billion yuan for 2026 [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 234.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.62% for 2024 and 23.43% for 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 6.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.7 billion yuan in 2024, 10.6 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 197.83%, 25.83%, and 22.36% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.98 yuan in 2023 to 1.76 yuan in 2026 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 14.75 in 2023 to 8.24 in 2026, indicating improved valuation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company's operating performance has significantly improved due to the recovery in industry demand and alleviation of cost pressures, with a notable increase in net profit by 197.83% year-on-year in 2023 [2][3] - Hengli Petrochemical benefits from a synergistic industrial chain, optimizing its profit structure through a comprehensive platform integrating coal, oil, and chemicals [3] - The company is set to release additional production capacity in high-performance and high-value-added chemical new materials, which is expected to drive future earnings growth [4] - Hengli Petrochemical has reinforced shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 5.50 per 10 shares, amounting to RMB 3.872 billion, which is 56% of its net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - The company is projected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in net profit of 22.1%, 33.9%, and 11.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.20, 1.60, and 1.79 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Hengli Petrochemical achieved total revenue of RMB 234.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.62%, and a net profit of RMB 6.91 billion, up 197.83% [2][5] - The company's gross margin improved to 11.3% in 2023, compared to 8.2% in 2022 [5] Industry Outlook - The refining sector's profitability has significantly improved, with a reported profit of RMB 65.6 billion in 2023, a 192.3% increase year-on-year, driven by the recovery of commercial activities post-pandemic [2][3] - The chemical industry shows a mixed performance, with strong profitability in aromatics but weakness in olefins due to the real estate market downturn [3] Production Capacity and Projects - The company has successfully launched several projects, including a lithium battery separator capacity of 440 million square meters and a 300,000 tons/year adipic acid project, with more high-performance resin projects expected to come online in 2024 [4] - The projected increase in PX production capacity is expected to support profitability, as the compound growth rate for PX capacity is forecasted to be only around 4% from 2023 to 2026 [3][4]