Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability resilience, with a focus on performance elasticity and high dividends in the future [1][6] - The company has ended its peak capital expenditure phase, shifting its operational focus towards meticulous cost control, reducing debt, and enhancing dividends [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching 1.939 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 61.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78.4% [5] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.142 billion yuan, 11.395 billion yuan, and 12.324 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.62, and 1.75 yuan [5][8] Sales and Margins - In 2024, the sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 19.97 million tons, 13.67 million tons, and 5.64 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.7%, -3.8%, and +37.9% [6] - The revenue from refining products, PTA, and new materials in 2024 was 108.14 billion yuan, 68.12 billion yuan, and 41.76 billion yuan respectively, with gross margins of 13.13%, 3.39%, and 14.11% [6] Cost and Pricing - The average prices for key raw materials in 2024 were 692.98 yuan/ton for coal, 8,058.55 yuan/ton for butanediol, 4,208.28 yuan/ton for crude oil, and 6,981.94 yuan/ton for PX, showing various percentage changes compared to 2023 [6] Dividend Policy - The company distributed a cash dividend of 3.168 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual exit of marginal refining capacities due to increased fuel oil import tariffs, which will favor high-quality development in the refining industry [7]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 恒力石化（600346.SH） 原料价格下行助力降本增效，全产业链协同发展-恒力石化 2024 年 报点评 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 234,791 | 236,273 | 247,142 | 258,182 | 268,688 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,905 | 7,044 | 8,460 | 10,753 | 12,008 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 197.8 | 2.0 | 20.1 | 27.1 | 11.7 | | ROE（%） | 11.5 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 14.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.71 | | P/E（倍） | 15.5 | 15.2 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by a favorable market environment and cost reduction strategies, despite a decline in non-recurring net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 236.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.63% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year - The non-recurring net profit was 5.21 billion yuan, down 13.14% year-on-year - For Q4 2024, operating revenue was 58.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year and 10.30% quarter-on-quarter - Q4 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, up 61.03% year-on-year and 78.39% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Efficiency - The overall sales gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from the previous year - Financial expenses decreased by 2.44% year-on-year, while sales and management expenses increased by 11.23% and 10.38%, respectively - R&D expenses rose by 24.20% year-on-year - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.99%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Cash Flow and Working Capital - The net cash flow from operating activities was 22.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year due to reduced sales collections - The net cash flow from investing activities was -20.90 billion yuan, while financing activities generated 7.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.11% - The cash and cash equivalents balance at the end of the period was 24.55 billion yuan, an increase of 63.37% year-on-year - Accounts receivable turnover decreased from 515.54 times in 2023 to 422.88 times, while inventory turnover increased from 6.03 times to 7.67 times [2]. Industry Trends and Demand - The petrochemical industry experienced expanded demand in 2024, with both production and sales increasing - The decline in crude oil and coal prices contributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements for the company - The domestic textile supply chain showed steady recovery, with rapid growth in demand for civilian silk, benefiting the company's aromatic-PTA-polyester value chain [1][2]. New Material Production and Innovation - In 2024, several projects were launched, including a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project, enhancing the company's capabilities in high-value downstream sectors - The annual production of 400,000 tons of high-performance special industrial silk was fully operational, supporting the automotive, chemical, and electronics industries - The Suzhou Fenhu base's 12 functional film production lines were fully operational, with an annual capacity of 470,000 tons, improving competitiveness in the high-end functional film sector [3]. Integrated Development Strategy - The company is a leader in implementing a full industrial chain strategy in polyester new materials, aiming to create a world-class integrated platform from crude oil to various high-value chemical products - The company has established significant processing capacities, including 20 million tons of crude oil and 5 million tons of coal, with advanced PTA production capabilities [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 247.14 billion yuan, 258.18 billion yuan, and 268.69 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 8.46 billion yuan, 10.75 billion yuan, and 12.01 billion yuan - The company is expected to benefit from the continued decline in raw material prices, new material capacity releases, and its integrated development strategy [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market's three major indices closed mixed, with the CSI 300 Chemical Index reported at 2019.69 points [1] - The CSI 300 Chemical Index has decreased by 12.44% over the past month, 9.26% over the past three months, and 8.77% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [1] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Chemical Index are: Wanhua Chemical (23.46%), Salt Lake Industry (14.15%), Baofeng Energy (7.49%), Juhua Co. (7.38%), Hengli Petrochemical (7.29%), Hualu Hengsheng (7.0%), Longbai Group (6.23%), Cangge Mining (6.23%), Satellite Chemical (5.96%), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (5.51%) [1] - The market share of the CSI 300 Chemical Index is 57.10% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 42.90% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry composition, other chemical raw materials account for 38.08%, polyurethane for 23.46%, potassium fertilizer for 20.38%, fluorochemical for 7.38%, titanium dioxide for 6.23%, and organic silicon for 4.47% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made when the CSI 300 Index samples are modified [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hengli Petrochemical has announced a guarantee plan for 2025, with a total expected guarantee amount not exceeding 2,317.22 billion RMB, 31.83 million USD, and 0.34 million EUR, which has been approved by the board and will be submitted for shareholder approval [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the company's guarantee balance is 1,987.68 billion RMB, 21.83 million USD, and 0.34 million EUR, with no overdue external guarantees [2] - The company has a total external guarantee amount exceeding 100% of the latest audited net assets, all of which are guarantees for subsidiaries within the consolidated financial statements [2] Group 2 - Hengli Petrochemical was established on March 9, 1999, with a registered capital of 703,909.9786 million RMB, and is primarily engaged in refining, aromatics, olefins, basic chemicals, fine chemicals, and related product sales [2] - The company has 38,300 employees and 89 affiliated companies, including various subsidiaries involved in fuel oil and petrochemical trading [3] - The company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 was 1,979.97 billion RMB, 2,223.73 billion RMB, and 2,348.66 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.94%, 12.31%, and 5.62% respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On Thursday morning, Hengli Petrochemical announced maintenance plans for two sets of equipment, and crude oil rebounded, causing the PTA price to surge. However, in the afternoon, the downstream terminal's operating rate continued to decline, and confidence was lacking, leading to a subsequent decline in PTA. The comprehensive operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 61%, a 2% decrease from last week, and the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in the sample area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 73%, a 5% decrease from last week. The terminal continued to reduce the operating rate to control the raw material consumption speed and the rising speed of grey fabric inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Cost Side - In the short term, the impacts of Trump's tariff policy and OPEC+ production cuts have not subsided. In the medium term, the fundamentals of crude oil remain weak. Trump may lower oil prices to curb inflation, and the market may further trade on recession expectations, resulting in a weakening of oil prices in the medium term [2]. - Regarding gasoline and aromatics, the octane spread has rebounded slightly recently, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of gasoline are still weak. The US has started stocking up on aromatics, but the overall impact is limited. Since March, South Korea's aromatics exports to the US have decreased significantly month - on - month, and the overall support from the cost side is limited [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $170/ton (a $2/ton increase from the previous period) the day before last. Recently, PX maintenance has been gradually implemented. The current PXN valuation is not high, and there is still support at the bottom, but the rebound is limited under the weak gasoline market. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and the macro - environment [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was 24 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 213 yuan/ton (a 69 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk was 354 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The PTA supply - demand continued to destock, and the basis rebounded. However, with the outflow of warehouse receipts, the liquidity in the spot market was acceptable, and the PTA price mainly fluctuated following the cost side [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 93.3% (a 0.1% increase from the previous period). Recently, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have been continuously decreasing. Due to the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor order intake, the willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and the filament inventory has accumulated to a high level. After the relaxation of tariffs in other countries, orders from Southeast Asia have resumed shipping, but direct orders to the US are still greatly affected, and the increase in Southeast Asian export - grabbing orders is limited. Recently, bottle - chip factories have restarted in a concentrated manner, the filament load has remained firm, and the short - fiber load has decreased. The polyester operating rate will remain high in the short term and may decline in May [3]. - For PF, the short - fiber spot basis was 330 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PF spot production profit was 334 yuan/ton (a 33 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the PF main contract was 897 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Short - fiber factories have gradually implemented production cuts, but the demand side remains weak. The tariff issue has been postponed, and the market sentiment has gradually stabilized, but the willingness to chase high prices continuously is insufficient. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a significant increase in demand - side export - grabbing orders [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 587 yuan/ton (a 151.10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Since the policy has little impact on the bottle - chip's own demand, the bottle - chip is slightly stronger than the raw material. At the historical low price, downstream customers have increased their replenishment. With Trump's implementation of a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the market sentiment has improved. However, the current bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the upside space of the polyester bottle - chip factory's processing range is limited. The market price is expected to still fluctuate following the raw material cost [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautious about short - selling and hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR at high prices [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Cross - period: None [4].

Core Insights - The report primarily addresses two questions: 1) The commercial model of e-commerce express delivery and the underlying logic of express pricing indicate that price wars will continue, promoting industry consolidation; 2) How YTO Express can leverage advantages in the new round of price wars to find strategic positioning [2][10] - YTO Express is expected to achieve net profits of 4.21 billion, 3.70 billion, and 4.06 billion for 2024E-2026E, corresponding to PE ratios of 11x, 12x, and 11x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [10] - The report highlights that the company has achieved a total revenue of 12.678 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 1.045 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42% [9][10] Company Summaries YTO Express (600233) - The report emphasizes the ongoing price war in the express delivery industry, driven by the commercial model and pricing logic, which is expected to lead to further industry consolidation [2][10] - YTO Express is positioned to benefit from this environment, with a clear strategy that includes optimizing logistics costs and enhancing digital transformation [10] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.21 billion, 3.70 billion, and 4.06 billion for 2024E-2026E, with a "Buy" rating maintained [10] Shield Environment (002011) - The company reported a total revenue of 12.678 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 1.045 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42% [9][10] - The report indicates that the company has exceeded expectations in its performance, particularly in the fourth quarter, where net profit doubled year-on-year [9][10] Jinhe Industrial (002597) - Jinhe Industrial is a major global producer of sucralose and acesulfame, with projected net profits of 1.213 billion, 1.476 billion, and 1.703 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12][18] - The company has improved its profit margins through cost optimization and product price increases, with a significant rise in dividend payout rates [12][18] Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - The report notes a decline in refining profitability but a significant recovery in the chemical sector, with net profits from the chemical business increasing by 81.67% year-on-year [19][20] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend level as capital expenditures taper off, with a projected PE ratio of 14x for 2025 [21][22] New Yangfeng (000902) - The company has seen an increase in both volume and profit margins in its phosphate fertilizer business, with a focus on high-value chemical development [21][24] - The report highlights the company's strong resource reserves and ongoing projects aimed at enhancing its competitive position in the market [21][24]

4月16日晚间，恒力石化（600346）（600346.SH）发布的2024年年度报告显示，实现营业收入2362.73亿元，实现归母净 利润70.44亿元。同时，恒力石化的货币资金达到了308.37亿元，创下了近5年来的新高，总资产规模也攀升至2730.83亿 元。 基于2024年的经营表现，恒力石化计划向全体股东每10股派发现金红利4.5元，合计拟派发现金红利31.68亿元（含税）， 这一金额占2024年归母净利润的44.97%。值得一提的是，在2022年至2024年期间，恒力石化的累计现金分红金额已达到 90.39亿元；且从派息日的股价来看，其股息率高达3%，这些举措展现了恒力石化对股东的慷慨回馈精神。 总资产5年复合增速达到9.35%，经营现金流充沛 恒力石化是一家以炼油、石化、聚酯新材料和纺织为核心业务的全产业链国际型企业。公司凭借其全球产能领先的PTA 工厂、全球规模最大的功能性纤维生产基地及织造企业集群，构建了覆盖苏州、大连、宿迁、南通、营口等地的产业版 图。截至2024年末，恒力石化员工总数达38300人，总资产规模突破2730.83亿元，2020至2024的五年间复合增长率达 9.35%，展现 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 恒力石化(600346.SH) | | | 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [石化龙头业绩稳步增长， Table_Title] 化工新材料增量空间可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 17 日 [Table_S 事件： ummary] 2025 年 4 月 16 日晚，恒力石化发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公 司实现营业总收入 2362.73亿元，同比增长 0.63%；实现归母净利润 70.44 亿元， ...

上 市 公 司 石油石化 2025 年 04 月 17 日 恒力石化 (600346) ——炼油景气有所下滑，关注成本弹性与分红持续性 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 15.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.23/12.13 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.55 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 109,106 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,276.00/9,774.73 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.01 | | 资产负债率% | 76.78 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 7,039/7,039 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-16 05-16 06-16 07-16 08-16 09-16 10-16 11-16 12- ...