Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's coal production, with a projected output of 420 million tons by June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative coal production reached 2.4 billion tons, marking a cumulative growth of 5.4% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an analysis of the supply and demand dynamics in the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031, indicating potential market operation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the coal sector include China Shenhua (601088), Zhongmei Energy (601898), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and others, indicating a diverse market landscape [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports and tailored services [2] - Data sources for the report include the National Bureau of Statistics and Zhiyan Consulting, ensuring credibility and accuracy in the presented figures [3]

资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出1270.50万元，占比成交额7.88%。其中，超大单净流出773.84万 元、占成交额4.8%，大单净流出496.66万元、占成交额3.08%，中单净流出流入1105.08万元、占成交额 6.86%，小单净流入165.42万元、占成交额1.03%。 华阳股份最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入58.17亿元、同比减少5.53%，归属净利 润5.97亿元，同比减少31.18%，扣非净利润6.31亿元，同比减少19.12%，流动比率0.805、速动比率 0.759、资产负债率52.50%。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月15日收盘，华阳股份（600348）报收于7.4元，上涨0.54%，换手率0.6%，成 交量21.79万手，成交金额1.61亿元。 来源：金融界 天眼查商业履历信息显示，山西华阳集团新能股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于阳泉市，是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本360750万人民币，实缴资本50915.67万人民币。公司法 定代表人为王玉明。 通过天眼查大数据分析，山西华阳集团新能股份有限公司共对外投资了44家企业，参与招投标 ...

天眼查商业履历信息显示，山西华阳集团新能股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于阳泉市，是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本360750万人民币，实缴资本50915.67万人民币。公司法 定代表人为王玉明。 通过天眼查大数据分析，山西华阳集团新能股份有限公司共对外投资了44家企业，参与招投标项目5000 次，知识产权方面有商标信息67条，专利信息136条，此外企业还拥有行政许可60个。 来源：金融界 金融界消息 截至2025年8月14日收盘，华阳股份（600348）报收于7.36元，下跌1.74%，换手率0.83%， 成交量29.89万手，成交金额2.22亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出4233.57万元，占比成交额19.08%。其中，超大单净流出1560.88万 元、占成交额7.03%，大单净流出2672.69万元、占成交额12.04%，中单净流出流入355.76万元、占成交 额1.6%，小单净流入3877.82万元、占成交额17.47%。 华阳股份最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入58.17亿元、同比减少5.53%，归属净利 润5.97亿元，同比减少31.18%，扣 ...

截至2025年8月13日15时，华阳股份股价报7.49元，较前一交易日下跌0.07元，跌幅0.93%。当日开盘价 为7.56元，最高触及7.56元，最低下探至7.42元，成交量为34.38万手，成交额2.57亿元。 华阳股份主营业务为煤炭开采、洗选加工及销售，同时涉及煤化工领域。公司所属板块包括煤炭行业、 山西板块、稀缺资源等。 数据显示，华阳股份最新股东户数为9万户，较上期减少7.22%，已连续4期下降。 8月13日，华阳股份主力资金净流出4760.07万元，占流通市值的0.18%。近5日主力资金累计净流出2.27 亿元，占流通市值的0.84%。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Group 1 - The stock price of Huayang Co., Ltd. on August 11 was 7.45 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The opening price on the same day was 7.49 yuan, with a highest point of 7.52 yuan and a lowest point of 7.41 yuan, with a trading volume of 352,300 hands and a transaction amount of 263 million yuan [1] - The company operates in the coal industry, focusing on coal mining, washing, processing, and sales [1] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the number of shareholders in Huayang Co., Ltd. has decreased for four consecutive periods, with the latest decline reaching 7.22%, resulting in a total of 90,000 shareholders [1] - On August 11, the net outflow of main funds from Huayang Co., Ltd. was 44.73 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 253 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% on August 11, with 24 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and communication sectors, which increased by 2.04% and 1.95% respectively [1] - The banking and oil & petrochemical sectors saw the largest declines, down by 1.01% and 0.41% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 10.02 billion yuan, with 16 sectors receiving net inflows [1] - The power equipment sector had the highest net inflow of 4.14 billion yuan, corresponding with its 2.04% increase [1] - The electronics sector also performed well, with a 1.76% increase and a net inflow of 3.33 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry experienced a decline of 0.35%, with a net outflow of 43.74 million yuan [2] - Among the 37 stocks in the coal sector, 17 stocks rose while 14 fell [2] - The top net inflow stock was Anyuan Coal Industry, with an inflow of 43.69 million yuan, followed by Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal with inflows of 27.22 million yuan and 24.82 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Analysis in Coal Sector - The following stocks had significant net outflows: Lu'an Mining (-50.37 million yuan), Huayang Co. (-36.61 million yuan), and Jinkong Coal Industry (-17.58 million yuan) [3] - The table provided details on various coal stocks, including their daily price changes, turnover rates, and main capital flows [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand match, leading to a continuous increase in coal prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of thermal coal at ports rose by 19 CNY/ton to 682 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 79,900 tons week-on-week, a growth of 5.19%. However, the average daily outflow decreased by 258,000 tons, a decline of 13.92%, indicating a stable supply with rising demand due to high temperatures [1][2][28] - The report suggests that the coal industry has entered a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, with continued growth in residential and industrial electricity consumption. It is anticipated that with stable supply and rising demand, coal prices may further increase [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to 3635.13 points during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025. The coal sector index increased by 3.02% to 2699.31 points, with a trading volume of 39.022 billion CNY, down 30.02% from the previous week [10][12] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of August 8, 2025, the price of thermal coal in major production areas showed a steady increase. For instance, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rose by 13 CNY/ton to 585 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou increased by 20 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [17][22] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.6194 million tons, up 5.19% week-on-week, while the outflow was 1.5951 million tons, down 13.92%. The total inventory at the ports decreased by 0.28% to 24.659 million tons [28][32] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the influx of insurance funds and suggests focusing on resource stocks. It recommends specific coal companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment targets due to their low valuations and elasticity [2][37]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term price inversion of annual coal contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence as the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price rose to 667 RMB/ton on August 4, 2025, exceeding the annual contract price for the same grade coal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates during this period [3]. - The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - The bottom for coal prices has been established, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts [3]. - The rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, but the increase in coking coal has outpaced expectations, indicating a stronger market than anticipated [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - Coal stocks are responding positively to favorable market conditions, with significant upward potential remaining [3]. - The market is increasingly focused on policy implementation and supply-demand dynamics, with several short-term supply constraints expected to benefit coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coal, Pingmei Shares, and Huaibei Mining, which are considered elastic stocks [4]. - Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and China Shenhua are still viewed as having high allocation value [4].