| | | 年 2025 | | 月 | | 08 | 日 | 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | | | | | | [Table_Title] 查超产影响下供给恢复偏慢， | | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 | S0350522110007 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 | S0350124100016 | | | | | 煤炭基本面旺季强势依旧 | | | | | | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 | S0350125070001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | | | ——煤炭开采行业周报 | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry has seen an unexpected improvement in fundamentals as of July 2025, with significant changes in production and demand dynamics [2][7] - The report highlights a notable decline in coal production and imports in July, alongside a significant increase in thermal power demand due to high temperatures [11][30] - The overall supply of coal has contracted, while demand from key sectors such as electricity generation has shown signs of recovery [12][50] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The coal mining sector's performance over the last month shows a 6.8% increase over one month, a 3.5% increase over three months, but a 5.2% decrease over twelve months [4] Supply Dynamics - In July 2025, the production of raw coal decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.29 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month reduction of 1.746 million tons per day [19][21] - The report notes that coal imports in July 2025 were 35.609 million tons, down 23% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [9][29] Demand Dynamics - The demand for thermal power increased significantly in July, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, marking a 3.2 percentage point increase from June [11][30] - The report estimates that the four major industries (electricity, steel, chemicals, and construction materials) contributed to a 3.8% year-on-year increase in coal consumption in July [50] Inventory Management - By the end of July, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 168,000 tons to 4.096 million tons, indicating effective inventory management [51][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with greater elasticity in thermal coal like Yanzhou Coal and Jinneng Holding [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's coal production, with a projected output of 420 million tons by June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative coal production reached 2.4 billion tons, marking a cumulative growth of 5.4% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an analysis of the supply and demand dynamics in the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031, indicating potential market operation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the coal sector include China Shenhua (601088), Zhongmei Energy (601898), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and others, indicating a diverse market landscape [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports and tailored services [2] - Data sources for the report include the National Bureau of Statistics and Zhiyan Consulting, ensuring credibility and accuracy in the presented figures [3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.43 | 3.68% | 33.81万 | | 3.49亿 | | 600985 | 淮北矿业 | 13.27 | 2.39% | 16.99万 | | 2.24亿 | | 669109 | 潞安环能 | 13.89 | 2.06% | 30.05万 | | 4.16亿 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | 7.28 | 1.68% | 64.96万 | | 4.71亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 14.10 | 1.59% | 13.19万 | | 1.85 Z | | 600508 | 上海能源 | 12.30 | 1.57% | 3.72万 | | 4538.55万 | | 601101 | 景华能源 | 7.72 | 1.45% | 9.54万 | | 7329.37万 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 20.40 | 1.44% | 11.56万 | | 2.35亿 ...

山煤国际最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入45.02亿元、同比减少29.17%，归属净 利润2.55亿元，同比减少56.29%，扣非净利润2.69亿元，同比减少55.38%，流动比率0.967、速动比率 0.852、资产负债率50.86%。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月15日收盘，山煤国际（600546）报收于10.43元，上涨3.68%，换手率 1.71%，成交量33.81万手，成交金额3.49亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入3145.70万元，占比成交额9.01%。其中，超大单净流入1687.69万 元、占成交额4.83%，大单净流入1458.01万元、占成交额4.18%，中单净流出流出2177.65万元、占成交 额6.24%，小单净流出968.05万元、占成交额2.77%。 通过天眼查大数据分析，山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司共对外投资了43家企业，参与招投标项目4882 次，专利信息28条，此外企业还拥有行政许可2个。 来源：金融界 天眼查商业履历信息显示，山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于太原市，是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本198 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a slight increase of 0.05% as of August 15, 2025, with notable performances from stocks such as COFCO Sugar (600737) and Huafa Co. (600325) [1] - The high dividend strategy includes both capital gains and dividend income, focusing on mature companies with strong profitability and cash flow, which tend to distribute profits as dividends [1] - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) closely tracks the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which consists of 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937), accounting for a total of 16.77% of the index [2] - The individual performance of the top stocks shows varying changes, with COSCO Shipping Holdings experiencing a slight decline of 0.32% and Shanxi Coal and Electricity (000983) increasing by 1.12% [4]

融券方面，当日融券卖出0.27万股，净买入2.17万股。 来源：金融界 8月14日，沪深两融数据显示，山煤国际获融资买入额0.27亿元，居两市第843位，当日融资偿还额0.38 亿元，净卖出1084.07万元。 最近三个交易日，12日-14日，山煤国际分别获融资买入0.28亿元、0.19亿元、0.27亿元。 ...

金融界消息 截至2025年8月14日收盘，山煤国际（600546）报收于10.06元，下跌2.33%，换手率 1.22%，成交量24.21万手，成交金额2.46亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出4279.96万元，占比成交额17.41%。其中，超大单净流出3791.19万 元、占成交额15.42%，大单净流出488.76万元、占成交额1.99%，中单净流出流入1472.86万元、占成交 额5.99%，小单净流入2807.10万元、占成交额11.42%。 通过天眼查大数据分析，山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司共对外投资了43家企业，参与招投标项目4875 次，专利信息28条，此外企业还拥有行政许可2个。 来源：金融界 山煤国际最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入45.02亿元、同比减少29.17%，归属净 利润2.55亿元，同比减少56.29%，扣非净利润2.69亿元，同比减少55.38%，流动比率0.967、速动比率 0.852、资产负债率50.86%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于太原市，是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本 ...

证券之星消息，截至2025年8月12日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于10.36元，上涨0.88%，换手率 1.31%，成交量25.93万手，成交额2.69亿元。 8月12日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入1392.17万元，占总成交额5.18%，游资资金净流入 190.05万元，占总成交额0.71%，散户资金净流出1582.22万元，占总成交额5.89%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净点比 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-12 | 10.36 | 0.88% | 1392.17万 | 5.18% | 190.05万 | 0.71% | -1582.22万 | -5.89% | | 2025-08-11 | 10.27 | 0.29% | -1336.05万 | -6.28% | 803.06万 | 3.78% | 532.99万 | 2.51% | | 2025-08-08 | 10.24 ...