Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 81.19, compared to the last closing price of 76.53 [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer is expected to face sales pressure in 2024, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1][5]. - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 32.138 billion, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.345 billion, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights that the beer sales volume in 2024 is under pressure, with a total production of 35.213 million tons in China, down 0.6% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales volume of 7.538 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 4189.3 yuan per ton, up 0.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main brand sales volume was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a decline of 7.2% [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased to 2548 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 40.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [6][8]. - The net profit margin reached 13.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 2% for 2027, with net profit growth of 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53, 3.84, and 4.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [6][8].

2）24 年吨成本为 2548 元/千升（同比-1.98%），24Q4 吨成本为 3114 元/千升（同 比+3.47%），24 年吨成本改善主因低价原料使用。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 非白酒 青岛啤酒(600600) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 24 年业绩符合预期，看好 25 年销量反弹 ——青岛啤酒 2024 业绩点评 投资要点 24 年山东、华北、华南、华东、东南收入同比增速分别为-3.38%、-2.24%、- 6.75%、-9.91%、-24.14%，净利润同比增速分别为 14.0%、15.5%、+2.7%、- 63.3%、-271%，净利率分别同比变动+2.0、+3.4、+1.3、-4.5、-14pct，其中山东 &华北核心市场收入增速相对较优、且毛利率和净利率均有提升。 ❑ 吨成本改善+费用管控促使利润率改善，分红率提升 1）24 年毛利率、净利率同比变动+1.57、+1.16pct 至 40.23%、+13.98%；24Q4 毛利率、净利率同比变动-1.24、+1.91pct 至 26.24%、-20.09%。 3）24 年销售费用率、管理费用率（含研发）分别同比变动+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][9]. Core Views - The beer industry faced challenges in the first three quarters of 2024 due to weak dining consumption and weather factors, but the company is expected to recover in 2025 under new management [1][9]. - The company announced a dividend payout ratio increase of 5 percentage points to 69%, indicating enhanced dividend attributes and potential for further increases in the future [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.35 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year [2][11]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 3.18 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 640 million yuan, slightly worsening [2][11]. Sales and Pricing - In 2024, the company's total sales volume was 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.9% year-on-year, with the Qingdao brand accounting for 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% [3][9]. - The average price per ton of beer increased by 0.4% to 4,189 yuan, with Q4 showing a sales volume increase of 5.2% and a price increase of 2.2% to 4,221 yuan per ton [3][4]. Cost and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1%, while Q4 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 26.2% due to a slight increase in cost per ton [4][9]. - The company's cost per ton in Q4 was 3,114 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, attributed to structural upgrades and seasonal production fluctuations [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 33.12 billion yuan, 33.80 billion yuan, and 34.17 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 4.785 billion yuan, 5.232 billion yuan, and 5.715 billion yuan respectively [11][9].

事件：24 年实现营业收入321.4 亿元，同比-5.3%；归母净利润43.4 亿元，同比+1.8%；扣非归母净利润 39.5 亿元，同比+6.2%。其中，24Q4 实现营业收入31.8 亿元，同比+7.4%；归母净利润-6.4 亿元，同比 亏损扩大；扣非归母净利润-7.4 亿元，同比亏损缩小。 盈利预测、估值与评级：我们维持公司2025-2026 年归母净利润分别为48.46/51.71 亿元，引入2027 年归 母净利润预测为54.42 亿元，折合2025-2027年EPS 分别为3.55/3.79/3.99 元，当前股价对应2025-2027 年 PE 分别为22x/20x/19x，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：市场竞争恶化；渠道掌控力减弱；原材料成本上涨。 成本下降毛利率改善，全年净利率同比提升。1）24 年/24Q4 公司毛利率分别为40.23%/26.24%，同比 +1.57/-1.24pcts。24 年毛利率同比提升主要系部分原材料成本下降。2）24 年/24Q4 公司销售费用率分 别为14.32%/37.18%，同比+0.45/-4.24pcts。24 年公司缩减部分区域业务宣传费，整体销售费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [3][5] Core Views - In 2024, Qingdao Beer is expected to achieve operating revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume but an increase in product pricing, indicating a continuous upgrade in product structure [1] - The new management team, led by Chairman Jiang Zongxiang, is anticipated to drive the company towards better performance in 2025, supported by a low base and recovery in the catering channel [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to be 40.23%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to reach 13.98%, up by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company's beer sales volume decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the average price per ton increased by 0.6% [1] - Online product sales grew by 21% year-on-year, marking 12 consecutive years of growth [1] Management Changes - The resignation of former Chairman Huang Kexing and the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman is expected to mark a new chapter in the company's development [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 4.846 billion yuan and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55 yuan and 3.79 yuan [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22x for 2025, 20x for 2026, and 19x for 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (Maintain) with a target price of 89 CNY and a current stock price of 76.53 CNY [3] Core Views - The company is expected to recover in 2025 due to improved operating conditions following a leadership transition and a resurgence in dining traffic, which will enhance revenue and profitability [1][6] - The company faced external demand pressures in 2024, leading to adjustments in delivery schedules to manage channel inventory, while maintaining stable growth through cost and expense control [6] Financial Data Summary - Total Revenue (CNY million): - 2023: 33,937 - 2024: 32,138 (YoY -5%) - 2025E: 33,278 (YoY +4%) - 2026E: 34,327 (YoY +3%) - 2027E: 35,256 (YoY +3%) [2][13] - Operating Profit (CNY million): - 2023: 5,737 - 2024: 5,843 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 6,504 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 7,040 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 7,551 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (CNY million): - 2023: 4,268 - 2024: 4,345 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 4,830 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 5,224 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 5,598 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Earnings Per Share (CNY): - 2023: 3.13 - 2024: 3.19 - 2025E: 3.54 - 2026E: 3.83 - 2027E: 4.10 [2][14] Key Financial Ratios - PE Ratio: - 2023: 24.5 - 2024: 24.0 - 2025E: 21.6 - 2026E: 20.0 - 2027E: 18.6 [2][14] - PB Ratio: - 2023: 3.8 - 2024: 3.6 - 2025E: 3.4 - 2026E: 3.2 - 2027E: 3.0 [2][14] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 16.1% - 2024: 15.4% - 2025E: 16.1% - 2026E: 16.4% - 2027E: 16.6% [2][14]

买入（维持） 2024Q4 营收环比改善，成本红利带动盈利提升 青岛啤酒（600600）2024 年年报点评 2025 年 3 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2024年年报。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 主要数据 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 28 日 收盘价(元) 76.53 总市值（亿元） 1044 总股本(亿股) 13.64 流通股本(亿股) 13.64 ROE（TTM） 14.95% 12 月最高价(元) 86.18 12 月最低价(元) 53.20 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读末页声明。 2 ◼ 公司2024Q4营收环比改善。2024年，公司实现营业总收入321.38亿元， 同比下降5.30%；实现归母净利润4 ...

作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨巫燕玲 啤酒股的业绩基本落定。 3月3 0日傍晚，青岛啤酒披露2 0 2 4年业绩：实现营收3 2 1 . 3 8亿元，同比下滑5 . 3%，归母净利 润4 3 . 4 5亿元，同比增长1 . 8%，销量7 5 3 . 8万千升，同比下滑5 . 8 6%。 五大啤酒上市公司中，有四家去年销量出现下滑。 2 1世纪经济报道记者整理发现，中国市场主要啤酒公司2 0 2 4年销量变化分别为：百威亚太中 国区下滑11 . 8%、青岛啤酒下滑5 . 8 6%、华润啤酒下滑2 . 5%、重庆啤酒下滑0 . 7 5%、燕京啤酒 增长1 . 6%、珠江啤酒增长2 . 6 2%。 要知道，2 0 2 4年中国规上企业啤酒产量下滑0 . 6%。啤酒是日常快消品，大众消费情绪可见一 斑。 （2 0 2 4年啤酒企业销量变化，2 1记者整理） 过去一年，中国啤酒市场主要玩家之间的份额差距缩小了。 这主要表现在华润、青啤、百威三大 龙头营收、销量同步倒退，而燕京、珠江两大黑马继续保持增长，超出行业水平。 不 仅 是 追 赶 份 额 ， 燕 京 啤 酒 、 珠 江 啤 酒 的 盈 利 也 有 大 幅 提 升 。 珠 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 青岛啤酒（600600） 2024 年报点评：轻装上阵，量价企稳 2025 年 03 月 31 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33937 | 32138 | 33968 | 35492 | 36862 | | 同比（%） | 5.49 | (5.30) | 5.69 | 4.49 | 3.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4268 | 4345 | 4857 | 5255 | 5675 | | 同比（%） | 15.02 | 1.81 | 11.78 | 8.19 | 7.99 | | EP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][23]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of stabilization and is expected to accelerate growth. The new leadership and macroeconomic policies are anticipated to improve consumption opportunities [2][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 32.14 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per share, totaling 3.001 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio increased by approximately 5 percentage points to 69% [2][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 32.14 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year - Net profit: 4.345 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit: 3.95 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year - Q4 revenue: 3.18 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [2][4][9] - **Future Projections**: - Expected revenue for 2025: 33.639 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.7% - Expected net profit for 2025: 4.875 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.2% [4][12] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 21 times - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025 is projected at 3.4 times [4][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has completed inventory destocking, positioning itself for a strong start in 2025 with a low base effect. The new chairman is expected to enhance sales focus and improve product mix flexibility [2][8]. - The company anticipates a double-digit growth in profits for 2025, driven by cost advantages and improved sales performance [2][8].