Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year. The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, and the core product "Pinnacle Shide" is still in a destocking phase due to weak business demand. The main sources of growth are products like "Shen Zhi Dao" and "T68" which are positioned in the mass market. The recovery of business demand for mid-to-high-end liquor will take time. The company is adjusting its pace to destock, and while short-term performance may continue to be under pressure, the elasticity of business demand recovery is significant under the macroeconomic policy shift [2][6][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.189 billion yuan, and the net profit was 78 million yuan [6][2]. - The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, with Q3 2024 revenue including contract liabilities amounting to 1.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.69% [6]. Product and Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 897 million yuan and 153 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 35.66% and 14.96%. For the first three quarters, mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor achieved revenues of 3.498 billion yuan and 537 million yuan, down 15.70% and 22.53% year-on-year [6]. - Regionally, Q3 2024 revenue from within the province and outside the province was 347 million yuan and 703 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 21.59% and 37.87% [6]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 63.66%, a decrease of 10.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.31 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 5.829 billion yuan, 6.007 billion yuan, and 6.333 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.152 billion yuan, and 1.332 billion yuan [6][7]. The PE ratios for these years are projected to be 25, 20, and 17 times, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.76 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings for 2024 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million CNY, down 48.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.19 billion CNY, down 30.9%, and net profit was 80 million CNY, down 79.2% [1]. - The decline in industry prosperity has put pressure on the company's sales. For the first three quarters of 2024, mid-to-high-end liquor generated 3.50 billion CNY in revenue (down 16% year-on-year), while low-end liquor brought in 540 million CNY (down 23% year-on-year). In Q3, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 900 million CNY (down 36% year-on-year) [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 67.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix. The sales and management expense ratios increased to 21.4% and 9.8%, respectively, reflecting a rise in expenses due to a lower revenue base [1]. - The company's key products, Shezhidao and T68, are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies, as they are positioned below 300 CNY, which may support performance amid declining consumer spending [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 2.99 CNY, 3.31 CNY, and 3.80 CNY, respectively, revised down from previous estimates of 3.60 CNY, 3.81 CNY, and 4.36 CNY [2][8]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 5.934 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 67.9% in 2025 and slightly improve to 68.3% in 2026 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, down 30.92%, with a net profit of 78.04 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to Q2 [1]. - The company is facing significant short-term pressure due to weak demand in the white liquor market, with a focus on a "control volume and support price" strategy and enhanced marketing efforts to reduce inventory [1]. - Despite the overall growth being under pressure, certain high-end products have shown strong performance, with sales of the high-end strategic product "藏品舍得 10 年" increasing by 384% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [1]. - The company is actively maintaining investor interests by announcing a share repurchase plan of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future development [1]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 3.50 billion yuan (down 15.70%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 537 million yuan (down 22.53%) [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.67%, down 10.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 919 million yuan, 879 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][11]. Regional Performance - Revenue from outside the province was 2.78 billion yuan, down 19.88%, while revenue from within the province was 1.26 billion yuan, down 8.61% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 舍得酒业（600702.SH） 中性 第三季度继续释放渠道风险，拟回购股份用于员工激励 2024 年第三季度公司收入同比-30.9%，净利润同比-79.2%。2024 年前三季度 公司实现营业总收入 44.60 亿元，同比-15.0%；归母净利润 6.69 亿元，同 比-48.3%。其中第三季度实现营业总收入 11.89 亿元，同比-30.9%；归母净 利润 0.78 亿元，同比-79.2%。 第三季度需求继续走弱，收入降幅环比扩大。分产品看，2024Q3 中高档酒收 入 8.97 亿元/同比-35.66%，低档酒收入 1.53 亿元/同比-14.96%，增速排序 和 2024H1 保持一致，T68（低基数下同比增长）>舍之道（持平或小幅下滑）> 品味（较高双位数下滑）；同时公司坚持聚焦战略，调整定制产品，对低档 酒产生影响。分区域看，2024Q3 省内收入 3.47 亿元/同比-21.59%，省外收 入 7.03 亿元/同比-37.86%。今年以来公司聚焦优势区域基地市场打造，深 耕遂宁大本营市场，省内收入降幅较小；后续公司将遂宁样板市场经验复制 至德州等其他 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 28 日，公司披露 24 年三季报，期间实现营收 44.6 亿元，同比-15.0%；实现归母净利 6.7 亿元，同比-48.4%。单 Q3 实现营收 11.9 亿元，同比-30.9%；实现归母净利 0.8 亿元，同比 -79.2%。 经营分析 从营收结构来看：1）分产品看，24Q3 中高档/普通酒分别实现营 收 9.0/1.5 亿元，同比分别-35.6%/-14.9%，结构弱化与行业分价 格带趋势一致，8 月沱牌 T68 升级上市公司也在聚焦运作，结构弱 化叠加成本端等因素持续扰动毛利率，期内毛利率同比-11pct 至 63.7%。2）分区域看，24Q3 省内/省外/电商分别实现营收 3.5/7.0/0.7 亿元，同比-21.6%/-37.8%/+39.1%；期内经销商新增 1 家，退出 47 家，净减少 46 家，Q3 末留存 2763 家。 从报表结构来看：1）24Q3 归母净利同比-15.3pct 至 6.6%，主要 系毛利率同比-11.0pct，且销售费用率+3.4pct、税金及附加占比 +4.2pct，管理费用率等变化有限；公司逐步优 ...

证 报 公 司 研 2024 年 10 月 29 日 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 舍得酒业（600702） 2024 年三季报点评：降速调控，缓而图之 2024 年 10 月 29 日 增持（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6056 | 7081 | 5818 | 6238 | 6997 | | 同比（ % ） | 21.86 | 16.93 | (17.83) | 7.21 | 12.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,685.44 | 1,771.30 | 918.15 | 1,033.39 | 1,186.08 | | 同比（ % ） | 35.31 | 5.09 | (48.17) | 12.55 | 14.78 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 5 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 舍得酒业（600702）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（上调） 报表加速出清，回购增强信心 目标价：78 元 当前价：68.16 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 44.6 亿元，同降 15.0%；归母净 利润 6.7 亿元，同降 48.4%；其中单 Q3 实现营收 11.9 亿元，同降 30.9%，归 母净利 0.8 亿元，同降 79.2%。单 Q3 销售回款 11.5 亿元，同降 21.1%，经营 活动现金流净额-1.2 亿元，去年同期为-0.6 亿元，Q3 末合同负债 1.7 亿元，环 比 Q2 末增加 0.1 亿元。 评论： ❖ 环比加速出清下滑，经销商开始净流出。公司 Q3 营收/利润分别同降 30.9%/79.2%，收入端加速出清，利润端延续大幅下滑，三季度继续放低回款 任务去库存。分产品看，前三季度中高档/普通酒收入同降 15.7%/22.5%（单 Q3 分别同降 35.7%/15.0%），结合渠道反馈，大单品品味舍得预计下滑 20%+持续 出清，大众价格带的舍之道、T68 受益上半年招商维持增长但增速放缓，低价 沱牌定制开发品深度出清后基本到 ...

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月29日 食品饮料 舍得酒业(600702.SH) 释放压力，轻装上阵 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:68.16元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.tuopaishede.cn | | 大股东 / 持股 | 四川沱牌舍得集团有限公司 /30.22% | | 实际控制人 | 郭广昌 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 333 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 332 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 227 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 226 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 21.28 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 36.3 | | 行情走势图 | | | | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】舍得酒业（600702.SH）*半年报点评* 淡季主动调整，业绩有所承压*推荐20240822 【 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——舍得酒业 2024 年三季报点评 调整延续，静待改善 舍得酒业(600702) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | | | | | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 收入、利润表现不及预期，主要系白酒 ...