Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 8.611 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.940 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, aligning with previous expectations [2][6] - The growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales accelerated compared to Q2, primarily driven by increased sales of Qinghua 20 and the upgrade of Laobai Fen, with other liquor categories also showing significant growth [2][6] - The company is expected to continue its national expansion strategy, maintaining a strong product matrix and category advantages, which supports the "Buy" rating [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 74.29%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product mix [6] - The company’s management expense ratio increased, impacting profitability, with a net profit margin of 34.14%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 36.946 billion yuan, 40.723 billion yuan, and 43.988 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.72%, 10.22%, and 8.02% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 12.446 billion yuan, 13.734 billion yuan, and 14.904 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19.24%, 10.34%, and 8.52% [7] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19, 18, and 16 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Shanxi Fenjiu has shown steady growth in its third-quarter performance for 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 31.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.35 billion, up 20.3% year-on-year [3][5] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with a notable increase in sales cash receipts by 30.8% year-on-year in the third quarter [3] - The report anticipates revenue growth rates of 16.5%, 11.6%, and 11.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 19.7%, 13.7%, and 12.3% for the same years [4][6] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit of RMB 2.94 billion, up 10.4% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s contract liabilities decreased to RMB 5.48 billion, reflecting a reduction of RMB 250 million from the previous quarter [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q3 2024 was RMB 6.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, showing an acceleration compared to Q2 2024 [3] - Revenue from other liquor categories grew significantly by 25.6% year-on-year, accounting for 28.0% of total revenue [3] Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market reached RMB 3.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while revenue from outside the province was RMB 5.09 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year [3] Financial Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 10.24, 11.65, and 13.08 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.4X, 17.9X, and 16.0X [4][6] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 17.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.21 billion by 2026 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, which is a 10.4% increase year-on-year [4] - The revenue growth in the third quarter was stable, although the growth rate in provinces outside the home province showed signs of slowing down [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q2 2024 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow showed strong performance, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 3.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.2% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% and a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.3% [4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and net profit was 2.940 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year growth [4] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in Q2 2024 [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories grew by 6.7% and 25.6% year-on-year, reaching 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively [4] - Revenue from the home province increased by 12.1% year-on-year to 3.506 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province grew by 10.9% year-on-year to 5.087 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown compared to the first half of the year [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow was robust, with sales cash receipts of 8.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.505 billion yuan, up 67.2% year-on-year, indicating strong operational efficiency [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 10.23, 11.66, and 13.11 yuan per share respectively [6] - Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 20-25 times is suggested for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 204.51 to 255.64 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Shanxi Fenjiu has a high quality of cash collection and anticipates growth in markets outside its home province [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain steady growth despite a general slowdown in the liquor industry [1][2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 26,214 million yuan - 2023A: 31,928 million yuan (yoy growth of 22%) - 2024E: 36,907 million yuan (yoy growth of 16%) - 2025E: 41,777 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) - 2026E: 47,079 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 8,096 million yuan - 2023A: 10,438 million yuan (yoy growth of 29%) - 2024E: 12,184 million yuan (yoy growth of 17%) - 2025E: 14,011 million yuan (yoy growth of 15%) - 2026E: 15,989 million yuan (yoy growth of 14%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 6.64 yuan - 2023A: 8.56 yuan - 2024E: 9.99 yuan - 2025E: 11.48 yuan - 2026E: 13.11 yuan [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 37% - 2023A: 37% - 2024E: 35% - 2025E: 32% - 2026E: 29% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 31.5 - 2023A: 24.4 - 2024E: 20.9 - 2025E: 18.2 - 2026E: 15.9 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu is leveraging its strong brand and unique flavor profile to expand its market presence nationally, particularly in provinces outside its home base [1] - The company is expected to continue its efforts in channel adjustment and brand positioning to achieve balanced growth in both volume and price [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 31.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year, indicating robust performance despite external macroeconomic pressures [1][2][5] - The company ranks among the top three in revenue among listed liquor companies, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market environment. The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 11.35% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 10.36% [2][5] - The company has successfully expanded its dealer network, increasing the number of dealers to 4,368, which is a 172 dealer increase from the previous quarter, indicating effective channel expansion [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a 17.25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 8.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 2.94 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase [1][2][5] - The company's cash flow quality remains strong, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.51 billion yuan, a significant increase of 67.22% year-on-year, attributed to higher sales receipts [5][6] Market Position - The company has solidified its position in the market, ranking among the top three liquor companies in terms of revenue. It has maintained a leading growth rate among major liquor enterprises, even in a challenging consumption environment [2][5] - The company has seen a slight slowdown in revenue growth from external markets, with Q3 revenue from outside Shanxi province increasing by 10.95% year-on-year, down from 21.78% in Q2 [2][5] Product and Regional Performance - The company’s product mix has shifted, with mid-to-high-end liquor categories generating revenue of 6.19 billion yuan, up 6.73% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a 25.62% increase to 2.41 billion yuan [2][5] - Revenue from Shanxi province reached 3.51 billion yuan, a 12.12% increase year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 5.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.95% increase [2][5] Profitability and Valuation - The company's net profit margin decreased slightly to 34.11%, and gross margin to 74.29%, attributed to product mix adjustments. However, the overall profitability remains strong [2][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 10.18 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year growth, which slightly exceeded market expectations [2]. - The company has shown resilience in maintaining its market strategy and adjusting its product mix, with a notable performance in high-end and mid-range liquor sales [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue in Q3 grew by 11.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown compared to Q2, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment [2]. - Sales revenue from high-end liquor and other categories reached 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.73% and 25.62% [2]. - The company’s sales in both domestic and external markets showed positive growth, with domestic sales increasing by 12.12% and external sales by 10.95% in Q3 [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 74.29%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.75 percentage points, attributed to changes in product mix [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 stood at 34.14%, reflecting a stable profitability despite some pressures [3]. - Cash flow from operating activities showed significant improvement, with a net cash flow of 3.505 billion yuan, up 67.22% year-on-year, indicating strong collection from downstream channels [3]. Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 12.55 billion, 14.28 billion, and 16.15 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 4.1%, 8.0%, and 11.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 17, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation in the context of its growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [1] - The Qinghua series showed steady growth, driven by both domestic and international markets, despite external consumption pressures [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in the medium to long term due to its strong brand positioning and product matrix [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit of 2.94 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.3%, primarily due to faster growth in mid-range products [2] - Cash flow remained robust, with sales cash receipts of 8.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [2] Market Dynamics - The company leveraged its strong brand and channel advantages to achieve double-digit revenue growth in Q3, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 6.19 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 was 3.51 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year, while international revenue was 5.09 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [1] Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see EPS of 10.21 yuan, 11.79 yuan, and 13.62 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 20x, 17x, and 15x [3][4] - The product matrix is diversified, with core products like Qinghua 20/25 showing higher growth rates than the overall market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809 SH) [3][5] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved steady growth in Q3 2024, with revenue and net profit increasing by 17 25% and 20 34% YoY respectively for the first three quarters [2] - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its base market and continued to optimize its product structure, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue growing by 6 73% YoY in Q3 [2] - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality development, with a solid long-term growth logic supported by its nationalization strategy and product structure optimization [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 8 611 billion yuan, up 11 35% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 940 billion yuan, a 10 36% YoY increase [2] - The company's gross margin slightly declined by 0 75 percentage points to 74 29% in Q3 2024, mainly due to product structure adjustments [2] - Contract liabilities stood at 5 481 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2024, a decrease of 251 million yuan from the previous quarter [2] Regional and Product Analysis - Domestic revenue in Shanxi province grew by 12 12% YoY in Q3 2024, while out-of-province revenue increased by 10 95% [2] - Mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 61 88 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a 6 73% YoY growth, while other liquor products grew by 25 62% [2] - The company continued to deepen its market presence in the Yangtze River Delta and South China regions, steadily advancing its nationalization process [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to reach 37 139 billion yuan in 2024, with a YoY growth of 16 3%, and projected to grow to 49 090 billion yuan by 2026 [3][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12 427 billion yuan in 2024, with a YoY growth of 19 1%, and expected to reach 16 892 billion yuan by 2026 [3][4] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 20x in 2024 to 15x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [4] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on four major products across different price segments, strengthening organizational management, and promoting professional operations [3] - Regional strategy emphasizes optimizing market layout, deepening coverage in key markets, and enhancing marketing model reforms [3] - Digital transformation is being utilized to improve efficiency and market control, with the Fenxiang Liyu model showing initial effectiveness [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with high-quality financial statements, strategically moderating growth to establish a solid market foundation for the upcoming year [2][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 313.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 113.50 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 76.03% and a net profit margin of 36.20% for the first three quarters of 2024, with slight year-on-year improvements [3]. - Cash flow performance was strong, with cash receipts from sales reaching 301.55 billion yuan, a 24.34% increase, and net cash from operations at 114.35 billion yuan, up 56.56% [3][4]. - The company’s revenue from domestic sales was 119.00 billion yuan, growing 11.58% year-on-year, while revenue from external sales was 193.53 billion yuan, increasing by 21.44% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 365.54 billion yuan, 403.33 billion yuan, and 464.03 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.49%, 10.34%, and 15.05% [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 122.83 billion yuan, 135.93 billion yuan, and 158.45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.67%, 10.67%, and 16.56% respectively [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" with a target price of 221 RMB [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance in Q3, with strong support from mid-range products. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 31.36 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.35 billion RMB, up 20.3% [2][4]. - The report indicates that the revenue growth rate for mid-range and high-end products has rebounded compared to Q2, with Q3 revenue reaching 6.19 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 12.67 billion RMB, 14.55 billion RMB, and 16.67 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.4%, 14.9%, and 14.6% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically focusing on liquor production [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 8.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. The gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 74.3% due to changes in product structure [2][4]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 11.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 67% [2][4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to maintain strong support from mid-range products and glass wine, with expectations for revenue growth in Q4 due to a low comparative base [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming years are forecasted to be 10.38 RMB, 11.93 RMB, and 13.67 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 17, and 15 [2][4].