证 券 研 究 报 告 | 行 业 定 期 报 告 2 0 2 4 年 1 2 月 9 日 签 约 客 户 可 长 按 扫 码 阅 读 报 告 近期酒企召开经销商大会等，对明年增长定调，茅台、汾酒、今世缘等管理 层纷纷表态。各家酒企对明年目标更加理性务实，进入供给侧主动收缩去包袱的阶 段，市场将更关注实际动销，股价或先于报表出现拐点。 食品板块提前完成去库存，四季度有望继续环比改善，调味品龙头低基数下 增长加速，液态奶降幅收窄，零食公司备战春节旺季。中期来看，乳制品、饮料、 榨菜等细分龙头率先走出调整，未来 1-2 年有望盈利上修。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：汾酒 25 年巩固期稳定为主，中炬无偿受让厨邦少数股权 山西汾酒： 汾酒 2024 年度经销商大会总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段的高质量发展成效。此外，青 26 新品上市，公司还提出了四轮驱动。 25 年巩固期稳定为主，预计增长目标有望回归合理。 中炬高新： 阳西美味鲜无偿受让朗天慧德持有的厨邦公司 20% 股权，本次股权转让完成后，厨邦公司成为中炬 的全资孙公司，厨邦公司 20% 股权对应的平均少数股东损益对公司净利润的平均贡献率为 6.31% 。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and strategic marketing initiatives, including a focus on premium products and expanding market share both domestically and internationally [4][5] - The company aims to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 370.6 billion, 415.1 billion, and 469.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 12.0%, and 13.0% [5][10] - The report highlights the successful performance of various product lines, with the Qinghua series and others achieving full-year revenue targets by October 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock price of Shanxi Fenjiu is currently at 198.77 yuan, with a market performance comparison showing a decline of 23% against the CSI 300 index [2] Financial Data and Forecast - The projected operating income for 2024 is 37,060 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 12,339 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.2% [10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 75.5% for the next few years, with a slight increase to 76.0% by 2026 [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "123" revival program, with specific phases aimed at consolidating achievements and enhancing production efficiency from 2025 to 2030 [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu plans to implement a controlled volume strategy in its home market while expanding its dealer network in other regions to enhance overall market presence [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 12 月 03 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告： 我们参加了汾酒2024年度经销商大会，主题为"越山海砥砺复兴，聚力行继 往开来"。会议总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段（2022-2024年）的高质量发 展成效。此外，青26新品上市丰富产品线，公司还提出了四轮驱动四系列目标百 亿。25年巩固期稳定为主，预计增长目标有望回归合理，省内包袱出清。战略务 实，受益强分化。 报告正文 "越山海砥砺复兴"，汾酒复兴第一阶段成效显著，经销商队伍持续优化。 我们参加了汾酒 2024 年度经销商大会，主题为"越山海砥砺复兴，聚力 行继往开来"。会议总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段（ 2022-2024 年）的高质量发展成效。产品方面，青花系列产品增速显著， 23 年销售 额突破 150 亿；经销商方面，汾酒经销商队伍持续优化，亿元级别大商由 41 家增至 51 家。第一阶段全面推行"汾享礼遇"利润分配模式，加快汾 酒数字化营销，不断提升渠道竞争力，汾酒营销管理现代化促进了汾酒、杏花材、竹叶青三大品牌的协同发展，汾酒国际化市场影响力显著提 升。 青 26 新品上市丰富产品线，四 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12] Core Views - The company is consolidating its achievements and is on a path of revitalization, with a focus on national channel consolidation and marketing innovation. The company has introduced a new product priced at 600 yuan, the "Qinghua Fenjiu 26·Revival Edition," with a suggested retail price of 718 yuan [2][3] - The company aims to achieve a revenue of 36.32 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.75%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 12.20 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.91% [1][12] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2022 was 26.21 billion yuan, with projections of 31.93 billion yuan for 2023, 36.32 billion yuan for 2024, 40.71 billion yuan for 2025, and 46.75 billion yuan for 2026. The year-on-year growth rates are 31.26%, 21.80%, 13.75%, 12.10%, and 14.83% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.10 billion yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 10.44 billion yuan in 2023, 12.20 billion yuan in 2024, 13.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.79 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.36%, 28.93%, 16.91%, 12.06%, and 15.49% respectively [1] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on a four-pronged product strategy with its brands: Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun. The Fenjiu brand includes strategic products like Glass Fenjiu and Laobai Fenjiu, which are aimed at achieving a scale of 10 billion yuan each. The company is also targeting the health wine market with Zhuyeqing and plans to expand Xinghuacun nationally by 2025-2026 [4][5] Market Expansion - The company is advancing its national expansion strategy, with a revenue distribution of 40% from the home province and 60% from outside. The average revenue in provincial markets exceeds 600 million yuan. The company plans to enhance its market presence in provinces like Henan and Shandong, leveraging its brand advantages to stimulate demand [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is entering the second phase of its revitalization program, focusing on comprehensive development and management upgrades, with the first phase successfully completed [1] - The company aims to establish itself as a globally influential liquor brand, with strategic initiatives centered around fairness, scientific management, and enhancing brand value [1][3] - The company plans to enhance its product matrix and has launched the Qinghua 26 revitalization version, priced at 718 RMB per bottle, to meet consumer demand [1] Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of December 3, 2024, the current stock price is 200.16 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 244.2 billion RMB and a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares [1] - The company has completed its 2023 annual revenue targets for its key product lines, including Qinghua, Laobai Fen, and Glass Fen [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 36.77 billion RMB for 2024, with a growth rate of 15.2% [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 12.26 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 17.4% [5] - The expected EPS for 2024 is 10.05 RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 18, and 16 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on three main areas: national expansion, targeting younger consumers, and internationalization [1] - The nationalization strategy aims to achieve a revenue ratio of 4:6 between Shanxi and other provinces by 2025 [1] - The company plans to evolve its marketing strategy to attract younger consumers, with over 50% of Glass Fen's consumption coming from those born in the 1980s and 1990s [1] Product Development - The company is set to break through the 10 billion RMB target for several product lines, including the Glass Fen series and the Laobai Fen series [1] - The product structure is being adjusted to maintain stable growth across all price segments [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.25%, and a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% [1]. - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy to enhance revenue streams amid market pressures, emphasizing the "Qinghua" series and strengthening mid-range products [2]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and in provinces outside its home base, with sales from provincial and non-provincial markets accounting for 38% and 62% of total revenue, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 37.6 billion yuan, 43.5 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.4 billion yuan, 14.3 billion yuan, and 16.5 billion yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 76.03%, a slight increase of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 36.23%, up 0.89 percentage points [1]. - The sales growth of high-end liquor accounted for 72.36% of total sales, with a growth rate of 14.26%, while other liquor categories saw a growth of 26.87% [1]. Product Strategy - The company is implementing a product strategy that focuses on high-end "Qinghua" products, strengthening mid-range offerings, and maintaining the popularity of "Glass Fen" products [2]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its market presence outside of its home province, with a sales revenue growth of 11.58% in the domestic market and 21.44% in the provincial market [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 17.7%, 15.8%, and 15% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 18.5%, 15.3%, and 15.9% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and good growth momentum, with a high certainty of achieving quality results for the year [2] - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 show significant year-on-year growth, with revenue at 31.36 billion yuan, up 17.25%, and net profit at 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% [2] - The company continues to expand its national presence, with strong performance in mid-to-high-end products and a notable increase in the number of distributors [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, revenue reached 8.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit was 2.94 billion yuan, up 10.36% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 74.29%, slightly down by 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a slight shift in product mix [2] - Cash flow from operating activities showed strong performance, with a net cash flow of 3.50 billion yuan, up 67.22% year-on-year [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company focuses on a product strategy of enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and stabilizing "Bofan" products, which has effectively improved its risk resistance [2] - The number of distributors increased to 4,368 by the end of Q3 2024, with significant growth in the number of distributors outside the province [2] - The company has successfully engaged consumers through marketing activities, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival, enhancing product sales [2] Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is adjusted to 12.35 billion yuan, 14.29 billion yuan, and 16.45 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 16%, and 15% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, 19, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2024-029 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 15 日(星期五) 至 11 月 21 日(星期 四)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或 通过公司邮箱 sxfj@fenjiu.com.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对 投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更 全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计 划于 2024 年 11 月 22 日上午 10:00-11:00 举行 2024 年第三季度业绩 说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 本次业绩说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年第三 季度的经营成果及财务指标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.94 billion yuan, growing by 10.36% year-on-year [1]. - The product matrix shows strong interconnectivity and sales momentum, which are considered core competitive advantages, with healthy channel inventory laying a foundation for future growth [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 17% in 2024, followed by 13% in 2025 and 2026, with net profit growth of 20%, 15%, and 14% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue and net profit figures were 8.611 billion yuan and 2.94 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.35% and 10.36% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 74.29%, slightly down by 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 34.11%, down by 0.29 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 3.505 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 67.22% [3]. Product and Market Structure - In Q3 2024, the high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 6.188 billion yuan, growing by 6.74% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 25.62% to 2.405 billion yuan [2]. - The provincial market remains a crucial support point, with provincial revenue reaching 3.506 billion yuan, up 12.12% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 5.087 billion yuan, up 10.95% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.235 billion yuan in 2024, 42.244 billion yuan in 2025, and 47.567 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 12.508 billion yuan, 14.356 billion yuan, and 16.329 billion yuan [7][8]. - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 21X, 18X, and 16X respectively [4].