Core Viewpoint - The company is cautiously optimistic about the dairy industry's supply-demand balance, expecting a phase of stabilization in Q3, while maintaining a focus on channel management and price control to navigate market challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand imbalance in the dairy industry originated in the second half of 2021, driven by increased consumer demand and enhanced production capabilities, leading to a rapid rise in cow numbers and milk yield [2]. - The company anticipates that the willingness of upstream farms to exit the market will increase, contributing to a more balanced supply-demand situation by Q3 [2][4]. - Management believes that the recent decline in raw milk prices will lead to a more rational approach among industry partners regarding demand forecasts, reducing the volatility seen in the past [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - In Q1, the company reported a strong start with improved sales and healthy inventory levels, despite a cautious outlook on short-term demand recovery [4][5]. - The company aims to achieve a net profit margin of 9% by 2025, indicating a focus on improving profitability [4]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with significant contributions from infant formula and adult nutrition products [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is actively developing new high-end products, including specialized milk powders aimed at youth growth and sleep aid, in collaboration with strategic partners [7]. - The B2B segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer acceptance of dairy products in various food sectors [7][8]. - The company has established a solid foundation in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has seen double-digit growth in ice cream sales [8].

Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.19% growth [1] - The company continues to lead the Asian dairy industry in scale and quality, with significant growth in its milk powder business [1] Business Segments - The liquid milk segment remains the core competitive advantage, generating revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the largest market share in the industry [2] - The company’s cold drink business achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan in 2024, reinforcing its position as the national leader in the cold drink sector for 30 consecutive years [2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment reached a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase, with the adult milk powder market share rising to 24% [3][6] Health and Innovation - The company is expanding into the health food sector, with other product revenues growing by 13.75% in 2024, particularly in the ready-to-drink tea market [4] - The adult milk powder market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% over the past three years, with the 50+ age group contributing 62% of sales [5] - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, with a 2.33% increase in R&D expenses in 2024, leading to breakthroughs in functional dairy products [9] Strategic Collaborations and Future Outlook - In 2025, the company partnered with Tongrentang to develop a series of functional products, marking a strategic move towards becoming a comprehensive health food enterprise [7] - The company is addressing structural issues in the cheese industry by enhancing its deep processing capabilities and expanding its product offerings [8] - The company’s focus on digital transformation and AI applications aims to improve operational efficiency and market responsiveness [10][11] Shareholder Value - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, totaling 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4% [12] - The company has a history of significant shareholder returns, with cumulative dividends reaching 50.8 billion yuan since its market debut [12] - The current valuation is at a ten-year low, with a consistent dividend rate above 70% over the past five years, indicating strong investment potential [12] Industry Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned in the dairy industry, with substantial growth opportunities in both liquid milk and milk powder markets [13] - The improvement in the upstream supply-demand balance is expected to enhance profitability, even with stable terminal demand [13] - The company is poised to lead the high-quality development of the Chinese dairy industry, leveraging its robust performance and innovative capabilities [14]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic dairy industry is shifting its focus towards lower-tier markets and functional product transformation after experiencing a slowdown in growth during 2024, with signs of recovery emerging in early 2025 [1][6]. Industry Performance - The top three dairy companies, Yili, Mengniu, and Bright Dairy, reported annual revenues of 115.8 billion, 88.67 billion, and 24.28 billion respectively for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8%-10% [4]. - The performance fluctuations were primarily concentrated in the second and third quarters of 2024, with revenue declines narrowing in the fourth quarter and showing significant improvement in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. Strategic Adjustments - Yili's management implemented a series of measures, including promotional activities and inventory reduction, which contributed to market recovery by the third quarter of 2024 and a healthy market state by the 2025 Spring Festival [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, Yili achieved total operating revenue of 33.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 4.63 billion, up 24.2% [5]. Market Trends - The dairy consumption growth rate has been declining for two consecutive years, influenced by both upstream and downstream market fluctuations [6]. - The current market dynamics are creating new opportunities, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumer demand for dairy products is increasing due to rising education and income levels [7]. Functional Transformation - Major dairy companies are adjusting their strategies to pursue functional product transformation for new growth [8]. - Mengniu is adopting a dual-track strategy focusing on deep processing and exploring new markets in specialized nutrition and functional nutrition [9]. - Bright Dairy announced its commitment to functional transformation by launching new products targeting specific nutritional needs [10]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The shift in consumer demographics is leading to a mismatch between new rational and personalized demands and traditional supply models [7]. - The per capita consumption of functional dairy products in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating significant growth potential [10].

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1157.80 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy enterprise in Asia, with a net profit of 115.39 billion yuan after excluding goodwill impairment, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [2][3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 330.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 46.29 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 24.19% [2] - The company aims to maintain a positive trend in operating profit margins, targeting a profit margin of 9% for 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The overall gross profit margin for 2024 was 34.03%, an increase of 131 basis points [3] - The management expense ratio decreased by 23 basis points to 3.86% in 2024, while the sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 16.9%, down 152 basis points [3] - Operating cash flow for 2024 reached 217.40 billion yuan, up 18.86% year-on-year, attributed to increased prepayments from distributors due to inventory buildup for the Spring Festival [3] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute dividends of 77.26 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, marking a historical high [4] - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 508 billion yuan in dividends since its listing in 1996, leading the dairy industry in China [5] - The company commits to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% and aims to increase shareholder returns [5] Business Segments - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved revenue of 296.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [10] - The liquid milk segment generated approximately 750 billion yuan in revenue, contributing about 65% to the total revenue [7] - The company’s market share in liquid milk continues to expand, with significant growth in high-end low-temperature milk products [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products, collaborating with traditional Chinese medicine brand Tongrentang to develop new products [13] - A new national dairy technology innovation center is under construction, aimed at addressing structural issues in the cheese industry [13] - The company plans to outline a five-year strategic plan in the second half of the year, emphasizing the reshaping of the dairy industry value chain [15]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临2025-035 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于参与设立创业投资基金的进展公告 经出资方共同协商，创业投资基金采取公司制基金形式。公司将根 据基金的后续进展情况，按照有关规定履行相关信息披露义务，敬请广 大投资者注意投资风险。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 为提升内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）的核心 竞争优势与产业拓展能力，寻求健康食品领域早期创新创业企业投资机 会，有效把握新的市场机遇，公司全资有限合伙企业珠海健瓴股权投资 基金管理合伙企业（有限合伙）、深圳市健瓴创新种子私募股权投资基 金合伙企业（有限合伙）、健瓴（珠海）母基金合伙企业（有限合伙） 与安徽省种子基金二期合伙企业（有限合伙）共同出资设立创业投资基 金。创业投资基金总认缴出资额为20,000万元，公司全资有限合伙企业 合计出资13,000万元。具体内容详见《内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公 司关于参与设立创业投资基金的 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2025-036 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展公告 1 回购方案首次披露日 2024/4/30 回购方案实施期限 2024/5/20~2025/5/19 预计回购金额 10亿元~20亿元 回购用途 √减少注册资本 □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 □用于转换公司可转债 □为维护公司价值及股东权益 累计已回购股数 36,205,761股 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 0.5687% 累计已回购金额 877,573,940.14元 实际回购价格区间 21.57元/股~29.97元/股 重要内容提示： 二、回购股份的进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管 指引第 7 号--回购股份》等相关规定，公司应当在每个月的前 3 个交易 日内公告截至上月末的回购进展情况，现将回购股份进展情况公告如下： 2025 年 4 月，公司通过集中竞价交易方式已累计回购公司股份 3,700,400 股，占公司总股本的比例 0.0581%，购买的最高价为 29.97 元 /股、最低价为 28.00 元/股，支付的金额为 109,992, ...

Group 1: Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) - Business Quality: In 2024, Yili's revenue is projected to be 115.8 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.011 billion, down 40% year-on-year [2][3] - Cost Pressure: Sales expenses reached 21.98 billion, accounting for 19% of revenue, significantly higher than R&D expenses of 870 million, leading to a net profit margin of only 7.33% [3][4] - Competitive Advantage: ROIC decreased from 9.5% in 2023 to 7%, indicating that Yili's competitive edge lies in channel management rather than product innovation [4] - Valuation Concerns: Current PE ratio is 22.5 based on 2024 net profit, with a warning that the dairy industry growth has slowed to single digits and high sales expense ratios may hinder profit growth [5] Group 2: Midea Group (美的集团) - Business Quality: In 2024, Midea's revenue is expected to be 409.1 billion, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 38.5 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year [9][10] - Cost Structure: Sales expenses of 38.75 billion account for 9.5% of revenue, which is 2.4 times higher than R&D expenses of 16.23 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of marketing-driven growth [10][11] - Growth Acceleration: In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 128.4 billion, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 38% [12] - Valuation Analysis: Current PE ratio is approximately 14.5 based on 2024 net profit, with concerns about declining ROIC and potential risks from overseas revenue exposure [14] Group 3: Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) - Business Quality: Moutai's revenue grew by 10.54% and profit by 11.56% in Q1, showcasing its strong market position with a high gross margin of 91.93% and net margin of 52.27% [18][19] - Competitive Advantage: Moutai maintains a healthy inventory level of 0.5 months, significantly lower than competitors, indicating strong pricing power and market demand [19] - Valuation Insights: Current valuation based on a projected net profit of 93.485 billion in 2025 suggests a PE ratio of around 20, which is considered reasonable given its ability to outperform inflation [20] - Extreme Scenario Analysis: Moutai's pricing power allows it to maintain positive revenue growth even in adverse market conditions, supported by strong cash flow [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) with a current stock price of 28.79 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 115.39 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 32.94 billion yuan, an increase of 1.46% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 17.71% year-on-year to 4.87 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report highlights that the liquid milk segment remains the market leader despite a revenue decline of 12.32% to 75.00 billion yuan. The milk powder segment saw a revenue increase of 7.53% to 29.68 billion yuan, driven by innovation in infant nutrition products [6][7]. - The financial outlook suggests a gradual recovery in revenue as consumer demand improves, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 10.74 billion yuan, 11.64 billion yuan, and 12.71 billion yuan respectively [7][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: - 2024 revenue: 115.39 billion yuan, 2025E: 119.20 billion yuan, 2026E: 124.21 billion yuan, 2027E: 129.80 billion yuan [5]. - 2024 net profit: 8.45 billion yuan, 2025E: 10.74 billion yuan, 2026E: 11.64 billion yuan, 2027E: 12.71 billion yuan [5]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 33.88%, with a net margin of 7.3% [6][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 21.7 for 2024, decreasing to 14.4 by 2027 [5][9]. Market Position - Yili maintains a strong market position in the liquid milk sector, holding the largest market share despite recent revenue declines. The company is also a leader in the adult milk powder market with a 24% market share [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region shows a decline across all areas, with North China leading at 32.19 billion yuan, down 5.15% year-on-year. South China and Central China also experienced declines of 9.81% and 13.46% respectively [6]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is projected at 21.59 billion yuan, with a net increase in cash of -18.41 billion yuan due to significant investment outflows [9]. - The total assets for 2024 are estimated at 153.72 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [8].

Group 1 - The core investment strategy of Honghu Fund in Q1 2025 involved significant increases in holdings of Yili Co. and Shaanxi Coal, while maintaining its position in China Telecom [1][5][8] - Honghu Fund's holdings include 1.53 billion shares of Yili Co. valued at 4.289 billion yuan, and 1.16 billion shares of Shaanxi Coal valued at 2.304 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025 [5][8] - The fund's investment in China Telecom remained unchanged, with a holding of 760 million shares valued at 5.979 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market value due to stock price appreciation [5][8] Group 2 - The fund's sector allocation shows a distribution of 47.56% in communication services, 34.12% in data services, and 18.33% in coal mining [4][3] - The total number of stocks held by Honghu Fund is three, with two stocks increased and one stock unchanged in Q1 2025 [3][5] - The insurance capital market is experiencing a significant increase in long-term stock investments, with the scale rising from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend of insurance funds entering the equity market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 115.39 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 1.46% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share, totaling 7.73 billion CNY, with a payout ratio of 91.4% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Total revenue: 115.78 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year - Net profit: 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year - EPS: 1.33 CNY [9]. - **2025 Estimates**: - Projected revenue: 119.11 billion CNY, up 2.9% year-on-year - Projected net profit: 10.74 billion CNY, up 27.1% year-on-year - Projected EPS: 1.69 CNY [9]. Product Performance - In Q4 2024, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products was 17.48 billion CNY, 8.35 billion CNY, and 0.377 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, +8.7%, and +23.7% [7]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products was 19.64 billion CNY, 8.81 billion CNY, and 4.11 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, +18.6%, and -5.3% [7]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 37.7%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 15.0%, down 3.33 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in investment income [7]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 119 billion CNY and a total profit of 12.6 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 24% respectively [7]. - The expected net profit margin for 2025 is 9.0%, aligning with previous plans [7].