证券研究报告 伊利股份 (600887 CH) 25Q1 业绩大超预期,毛销差明显提振 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 食品 | 24 年收入 / 归 母 净 利 / 扣非净利 1157.8/84.5/60.1 亿，同比 -8.2%/-18.9%/-40.0%；24Q4 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 267.4/-24.2/-25.0 亿， 同比-7.1%/转亏/转亏；25Q1 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 330.2/48.7/46.3 亿， 同比+1.4%/-17.7%/+24.2%，业绩大超预期（我们前瞻预计 25Q1 收入同比 -6%，扣非净利同比-3%）。24Q3 末公司液奶业务渠道调整结束、24Q4 以 来轻装上阵，25Q1 公司液奶收入保持平稳；公司婴配粉业务具备竞争力， 25Q1 经营向好，婴配粉业务增势较好；冷饮业务 25Q1 收入仍有小幅下滑， 但渠道库存调整已基本结束，25 年旺季有望开启正增。利润端，25Q1 毛销 差同比+3.3pct，盈利能力明显提振。25 年公司计划实现营 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 | 6.4 7.3 | C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 伊利股份(600887.SH) BUY 买进 大额减值影响 2024 年盈利，25Q1 扣 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.33 [7][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in gross sales margin and profitability [1][4]. - The liquid milk business has stabilized, while the infant formula segment continues to show strong growth, and the cold drink business is expected to recover as inventory adjustments are completed [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 115.78 billion, a decline of 8.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.45 billion, down 18.9% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenues reached RMB 33.02 billion, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 4.87 billion, down 17.7% [1][2]. - The gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 37.8% in Q1 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit margin to 14.0% [3]. Business Segments - Revenue from liquid milk in 2024 was RMB 750.0 billion, down 12.3% year-on-year, while infant formula and dairy products generated RMB 296.8 billion, up 7.5% [2]. - In Q1 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.1%, cold drinks by 5.3%, but infant formula revenue increased by 18.6% [2]. Profitability and Forecasts - The company plans to achieve revenue of RMB 119.0 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 2.8%, and a total profit of RMB 12.6 billion, up 24.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The report projects EPS for 2025 at RMB 1.73, with an upward revision of 2% from previous estimates [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of RMB 36.33 corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2025, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][7].

顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 6.4 | 7.3 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-10-31 | 26.44 | 买进 | | 2024-08-30 | 22.87 | 买进 | | 2024-04-30 | 28.29 | ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 6.4 | 7.3 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-10-31 | 26.44 | 买进 | | 2024-08-30 | 22.87 | 买进 | | 202 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 | 6.4 7.3 | 近期评等 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

群益证券(香港)有限公司顾向君近期对伊利股份（600887）进行研究并发布了研究报告《大额兼职影响2024 年盈利，25Q1扣非后盈利良好》，上调伊利股份目标价至34.0元，给予增持评级。 伊利股份 结论与建议： 业绩概要： 公告2024年实现营收1157.8亿，同比下降8.2%，实现归母净利润84.5亿，同比下降19%，扣非后净利润60.1 亿，同比下降40%；24Q4实现营收267.4亿，同比下降7%，实现净亏损24.2亿。 公告2025年一季度实现营收330.2亿，同比增1.4%，实现归母净利润48.7亿，同比下降17.7%，扣非后净利润 46.3亿，同比增24.2%。 分红方案：每10股派发现金股利12.2元，股息率约4.24% 点评： 2024年乳品需求弱复苏，全年营收呈负增长。四季度看，液体乳实现收入174.8亿，同比下降13%，奶粉及奶 制品收入83.5亿，同比增8.7%，冷饮收入3.8亿，同比增23.7%，其他产品收入1.3亿，同比下降20%。 成本费用方面，Q4毛利率同比下降0.7pct至31%，应主要受产品结构变动影响(全年受益成本低位，毛利率同 比提升1.3pcts)；期间费用率同比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant adjustments made by fund manager Guo Fei of China Jianyin Investment in his fund portfolios during the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift towards value-style investments and increased holdings in banking and consumer-related stocks [2][3][6]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - Guo Fei's funds have seen a notable shift in their investment strategy, moving away from previously held growth stocks like Dongfang Yuhong and Guizhou Moutai, and instead focusing on banks and industrial stocks [3][6]. - The fund "Jianyin Growth 30" has outperformed its benchmark over the past year, indicating a successful strategy shift that has led to positive returns for investors [3][4]. Asset Allocation Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, Guo Fei's managed funds totaled 70.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4]. - The equity asset allocation in "Jianyin Growth 30" increased to 80.59%, up over 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a significant increase in stock holdings [5]. Stock Selection and Concentration - Guo Fei's recent adjustments include adding four new stocks to his portfolio, specifically two bank stocks and two industrial stocks, while reducing positions in previously held stocks like Agricultural Bank of China [6][8]. - The concentration of holdings in "Jianyin Growth 30" reached a three-year high of 70.66%, indicating a more focused investment strategy [7]. Investment Philosophy and Market Outlook - Guo Fei emphasizes a belief in the cyclical nature of the market, stating that while the timing of economic recovery is uncertain, he remains confident in the eventual return of cycles and shareholder returns [16][17]. - For Q2 2025, Guo Fei plans to maintain a focus on stable assets with sustainable returns while temporarily avoiding overseas companies due to concerns about the inventory cycle [16][17].

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, up 24.19%, indicating a stable performance amidst industry challenges [1] Revenue Breakdown - The liquid milk business generated revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, holding the top position in the industry, with market share increases in both ambient white milk and ambient yogurt [2] - The cold drink segment achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan, maintaining its leadership in the national cold drink industry for 30 consecutive years [2] Growth Drivers - The milk powder and dairy products segment reached a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with the adult milk powder market share continuing to rise [3] - The cheese business showed significant growth, particularly in the high-value 2B sector, with revenue increasing by over 20% year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company operates 15 R&D centers globally and leads the only national-level technology innovation center in China's dairy industry [4] - A strategic partnership with Tongrentang aims to launch a series of functional products, exploring the frontier of traditional Chinese medicine [4] - The upcoming cheese manufacturing benchmark base will address import dependencies and enhance product structure, driving the industry towards higher value [4] - The integration of digital technologies such as AI and IoT into operations has significantly improved efficiency and reduced product launch cycles [4]

Core Insights - Yili Group reported a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 12.2% increase, with strong performance in both operational scale and quality [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.19% to 4.629 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for Yili improved by 131 basis points to 34.03% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - The net cash flow from operations reached 21.740 billion yuan, up 18.86% year-on-year, while management expense ratio decreased by 23 basis points to 3.86% [3] - In Q1 2025, the sales expense ratio was 16.9%, down 152 basis points, reflecting significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk business generated revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the largest market share in the ambient white milk segment and increasing market share in ambient yogurt and low-temperature yogurt by 1.4 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively [3] - The high-end low-temperature white milk segment saw a 30% year-on-year revenue growth, while the ice cream business achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan [3] - The milk powder and dairy products segment, identified as a second growth driver, reported revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, a 7.53% increase year-on-year [3] International Expansion - Yili's overseas ice cream business revenue grew by 13% in 2024, and infant formula business surged by 68%, with the Joyday ice cream brand exporting to 16 countries following the launch of the production base in Indonesia [3] Strategic Outlook - For 2025, Yili aims to achieve revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4%, respectively [4] - The company is strategically focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products, addressing specific consumer needs such as sugar control and immune enhancement [4] - With the anticipated growth in the milk powder business and advancements in functional product offerings and dairy processing technologies, Yili is positioned to strengthen its competitive edge in the global dairy industry [4]