Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks collectively declined, with Zhongzhou Securities down 4.81% to HKD 2.57, China Merchants Securities down 4.47% to HKD 15.82, Everbright Securities down 3.91% to HKD 10.33, and CITIC Securities down 3.75% to HKD 12.85 [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a decline in investor sentiment and a temporary cooling of risk appetite [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the non-bank sector has underperformed the index in the past month, but this is mainly due to trading factors, with the non-bank fundamentals continuing to improve [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley reported that the average daily trading volume (ADT) in the A-share market remains high, increasing confidence in the annual ADT forecast, raising the 2025 ADT prediction by 53% to RMB 1.53 trillion [1] - The forecast for ADT growth for 2026 and 2027 is expected to maintain an annual increase of 5% to 6% [1] - As a result, the average earnings forecast for covered Chinese brokerages for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been raised by 25%, 23%, and 20% respectively [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly: What's the Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Cut on A-Shares? - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market is in a volatile adjustment phase, but the medium - term trend remains upward. The Fourth Plenary Session in October may clarify the strategic position of technological innovation and new - quality productivity, strengthening the market's fundamental repair expectations. The easing of Sino - US relations can repair market risk appetite, and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost the stock market in the medium term [6]. - The current market volatility is a short - term adjustment, and investors can take advantage of the adjustment to make structural allocations in the directions of technological innovation, domestic demand and the "anti - involution" theme, and sectors benefiting from the easing of Sino - US relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Observation Impact of Sino - US Easing and Fed's Interest Rate Cut on A - Shares' Medium - Term Trend - Last week, the A - share market was volatile. The Fed's interest rate cut and the weak performance of the brokerage sector were the main influencing factors. The brokerage index fell 3.55% last week and has retraced 9.63% from its August 25 high [6]. - Despite short - term volatility, the medium - term trend of the A - share market remains positive. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October may bring policy support, and the easing of Sino - US relations can improve market sentiment. The Fed's interest rate cut may have a positive impact on the stock market in the medium term [6]. View on the Recent Uptrend of A - Share Technology Sector - Last week, the capital situation remained loose. There was a "high - to - low" rotation of funds. The two - margin balance continued to grow, and the net reduction of shareholder holdings decreased, alleviating market supply pressure [7]. Investment Advice - Investors can make structural allocations during the market adjustment: focus on the technology innovation main line such as consumer electronics, robots, and games; pay attention to domestic demand and "anti - involution" themes including high - growth industries in the Growth Enterprise Market and sectors benefiting from infrastructure and manufacturing repair; consider sectors benefiting from the easing of Sino - US relations like Hang Seng Tech Index constituents, leading innovative drug companies, and the brokerage sector [8]. Market Review Market Performance - Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 2.84%. Among major industries, the optional consumption and information technology indices performed well, while the financial and daily consumption indices performed poorly. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose, with coal, power equipment, and electronics having larger increases, and banking, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance having larger declines [9][17][19]. Trading Heat - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 25178.46 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 23264.15 billion yuan, at a very high historical level (96.70% of the three - year historical quantile) [22]. Valuation Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the PE_TTM of the Wind All - A Index was 22.10, down 0.15 from last week, at the 89.70% quantile of the past five - year history. Thirteen out of 30 Shenwan primary industries saw valuation (PE_TTM) repairs [27]. Weekly Global Economic Calendar - Domestic economic data: On September 22, the People's Bank of China will release the 1 - year Loan Prime Rate (LPR). - Overseas economic data: On September 23, the US Markit Composite PMI will be released; on September 24, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak and the US M2 money supply data will be released; on September 26, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr will speak and the Atlanta Fed will release its GDPNow economic growth forecast [29].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation due to proactive production cuts ahead of the National Day holiday and ongoing checks for overproduction in major coal-producing regions, leading to a structural shortage of quality coal resources and a potential increase in coal prices [1][2][4]. Supply Side - Continuous checks for overproduction in major coal-producing areas are anticipated, with proactive production cuts expected before the National Day holiday, reinforcing both short-term and long-term supply contraction expectations [1][2]. - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has identified 93 coal mines with overproduction issues, with a 31% overproduction rate, particularly in Ordos City, where 82 mines are affected. Mines exceeding production limits by over 10% will be ordered to suspend operations for rectification [1]. - A dynamic regulatory mechanism is to be established to prevent overproduction and ensure safe coal mining operations [1]. Demand Side - There is an expectation of gradual improvement in coal demand from non-electric industries during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with steel consumption anticipated to increase [3]. - Steel production remains stable, with daily pig iron output at 1.9 million tons, reflecting a 3.8% week-on-week increase and a 6.3% year-on-year increase [3]. Inventory Side - Port inventories are experiencing significant depletion, with Qinhuangdao port coal inventory dropping to 5.9 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.96% [4]. - The upcoming maintenance of the Daqin railway line, starting October 7 for 20 days, is expected to reduce coal transport capacity, further tightening port inventories and increasing the scarcity of marketable coal resources [4]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Jingtang Port has increased by 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 709 CNY/ton, despite a year-on-year decrease of 18.69% [5]. - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen by 130 CNY/ton week-on-week, indicating a strong upward trend in coal prices [6]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings at low levels, suggesting a healthy trading environment. The anticipated demand surge for non-electric coal and winter peak demand could catalyze further price increases [8]. - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, and China Shenhua Energy, among others, which are expected to benefit from the market conditions [8].

Core Insights - The stock of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co., Ltd. increased by 5.02% on September 22, reaching a price of 161.10 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 6.12 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 6.47%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 97.973 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Beijing Compass Technology Development Co., Ltd. was established on April 28, 2001, and went public on November 18, 2019. The company primarily provides financial data analysis and securities investment consulting services through a securities tool software terminal and an internet platform. The revenue composition is as follows: financial information services account for 97.98%, advertising business for 1.99%, and leasing for 0.02% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from fund holdings, one fund under Zhongtai Securities Asset Management has a significant position in Compass. The Zhongtai CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (008112) held 5,945 shares in the second quarter, representing 0.81% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh-largest holding. The estimated floating profit for today is approximately 45,800 CNY [2] Fund Performance - The Zhongtai CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (008112) was established on December 11, 2019, with a latest scale of 18.9286 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 22.77%, ranking 2,226 out of 4,222 in its category; the one-year return is 51.39%, ranking 1,908 out of 3,813; and since inception, the return is 55.19% [2] Fund Management - The fund manager of Zhongtai CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (008112) is Zou Wei, who has been in the position for 5 years and 288 days. The total asset size of the fund is 1.368 billion CNY, with the best return during his tenure being 64.28% and the worst return being -7.4% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jian Sheng Group's stock price dropped by 5.04% to 9.80 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 113 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.31%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.358 billion CNY [1] - Jian Sheng Group, established on December 6, 1993, and listed on January 27, 2015, is located in Xiaoshan Economic Development Zone, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. The company specializes in the production of knitted sports apparel [1] - The revenue composition of Jian Sheng Group includes knitted sports cotton socks (60.61%), seamless sports apparel (22.97%), knitted casual cotton socks (11.02%), seamless casual apparel (2.71%), homewear and others (1.50%), and other supplementary items (1.19%) [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Jian Sheng Group, a fund under Zhongtai Securities Asset Management holds 9.6299 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, representing 2.73% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 5.0076 million CNY [2] - Zhongtai Xingyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A (006567), established on December 5, 2018, has a latest scale of 4.645 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 6.81%, ranking 6351 out of 8244 in its category; the one-year return is 26.56%, ranking 5433 out of 8066; and since inception, the return is 183.22% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Zhongtai Xingyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A (006567) is Jiang Cheng, who has a cumulative tenure of 11 years and 49 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 12.606 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 183.22% and the worst being -4.4% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China International Cargo Airlines (国货航) is actively engaging with investors to discuss its fleet, route network, utilization rates, the impact of China-US trade relations, market capitalization management, and dividend plans [1][2]. Group 2 - As of June 2025, the company operates a fleet of 25 cargo aircraft, including 13 B777, 5 A330, and 3 B747, focusing on long-haul markets in Europe and the US, with 25 operational routes [1][2]. - The average daily utilization of cargo aircraft from January to June 2025 is approximately 13.29 hours, showing a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The current China-US trade relations are in a "pause" phase, with ongoing negotiations, and the company is monitoring policy changes while expanding its route network under a "dual circulation" strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on its core business and implementing a "passenger and cargo" strategy to enhance communication with investors and explore market capitalization management tools [2]. - A shareholder return plan has been established, considering both corporate development and investor returns, with specific profit distribution details to be announced [2].

Group 1 - The bond market risks have not been resolved, and there is still room for adjustment within the year, with an upper limit potentially exceeding 1.8% [1] - Market expectations regarding monetary policy provide some support at key levels, but these expectations can eventually lead to either a positive or negative outcome [1] - The trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" remains unchanged despite overseas interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The equity market is currently in a phase of risk appetite increase, and overseas interest rate cuts may provide emotional support [1] - Institutional reallocation between equity and bond assets continues, making it easier for bond rates to rise but harder for them to fall [1] - Recent rebounds in domestic commodities driven by policy expectation speculation may face a phase of correction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the world has experienced a prolonged period of relative peace since the end of World War II, leading to significant population and economic growth, but also highlights the substantial costs associated with this growth, including rising inequality and increasing public debt [1] Economic Growth and Population - Since 1945, the global population has increased from 2.5 billion to 8.1 billion, indicating a substantial demographic expansion [1] - Economic growth has outpaced population growth, but this has come at a significant cost [1] Costs of Economic Growth - The article outlines several negative consequences of economic growth, including: - Widening wealth disparity - Environmental pollution - Intensified economic conflicts between nations - Domestic debt crises [1] Debt Dependency - Major global economies are increasingly reliant on debt for growth, with the rate of debt increase surpassing economic growth rates [1] - The macro leverage ratio is continuously rising, indicating a growing dependency on borrowing [1] Recommendations for Debt Management - The article suggests several measures to address the rising public debt: - Increase transparency regarding debt levels - Make hidden debts visible - Utilize larger-scale local special bonds to replace hidden debts - Encourage local governments to obtain long-term low-interest loans from policy banks and state-owned banks to replace hidden debts [1] - It also recommends that central banks implement significant interest rate cuts and modify laws to allow central banks to purchase government bonds, thereby increasing the proportion of government bonds in central bank assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Qingdao Venture Capital and Private Equity Conference aims to enhance the financing channels for technology-based startups and promote high-quality economic development in Qingdao through various activities and discussions on financial innovation and trends [3][12]. Event Overview - The conference will be held on September 26 at the Qingdao International Conference Center, featuring both online and offline participation with approximately 1,000 attendees [4][5]. - The event will include opening speeches, project unveiling and signing, keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, thematic forums, and capital investment and technology project roadshows [4][10]. Historical Context - The Qingdao Venture Capital and Private Equity Conference has been successfully held six times since 2019, significantly enhancing its influence and support from national regulatory bodies and industry leaders [3][12]. - As of July 2025, the number of private fund managers and the scale of managed funds in Qingdao have increased to 1.5, 5.7, and 3.3 times their levels at the end of 2018, respectively [3]. Conference Highlights - The conference will transition from focusing solely on venture capital to encompassing the broader financial industry, emphasizing financial openness and technological empowerment [5]. - A strong lineup of influential guests, including former government officials and leaders from renowned financial institutions, will participate in discussions [6]. Key Discussion Topics - The conference will address current industry hot topics such as macroeconomics, industrial upgrades, mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and ESG financial reforms [7][8]. - Specific forums will focus on financial openness, green finance innovation, and the integration of technology and finance [8][9]. Expected Outcomes - The conference is expected to facilitate the establishment of quality projects in Qingdao and attract more investment institutions to set up branches or funds in the city [12]. - It aims to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and accelerate the conversion of technological innovations into practical applications [13][14]. - The event will enhance Qingdao's reputation in the venture capital and private equity sector, attracting talent, technology, and capital [14].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its structural upward trend in the short term, supported by the progress of the US-China leaders' dialogue and the ongoing recovery of sentiment in the A-share market [1] - The demand for AI is showing continuous improvement, making the technology sector in Hong Kong the most promising area for investment [1] - Investors are advised to adopt a barbell strategy in their asset allocation, maintaining high-dividend assets as a base while also focusing on technology and consumer sectors that show significant profit improvement and growth potential [1]