Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhendong Pharmaceutical has seen a stock price increase of 5.31%, reaching 6.74 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.688 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - Zhendong Pharmaceutical, established on November 15, 1995, and listed on January 7, 2011, is located in Changzhi City, Shanxi Province. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of generic and innovative drugs related to oncology, hair, digestion, urology, and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a full industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine [1] - The revenue composition of Zhendong Pharmaceutical includes 54.82% from traditional Chinese medicine, 43.10% from chemical drugs, 1.98% from other sources, and 0.10% from sales materials, with no revenue from research and development [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhendong Pharmaceutical is a significant investment for the Caifeng Securities Asset Management's healthcare mixed fund A (018484), which held 800,000 shares, accounting for 6.04% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Caifeng Securities Asset Management healthcare mixed fund A (018484) was established on August 3, 2023, with a latest scale of 64.306 million CNY. The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 20.51%, ranking 3452 out of 8136 in its category [2] - The fund manager of Caifeng Securities Asset Management healthcare mixed fund A is Wang Xinyuan, who has been in the position for 16 days, with the fund's total asset size at 359 million CNY [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goer Technology Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor interest in the company's performance and growth potential [1]. Company Overview - Goer Technology, established on June 25, 2001, and listed on May 22, 2008, is located in Weifang, Shandong Province. The company specializes in precision components, smart acoustic systems, and smart hardware [1]. - The revenue composition of Goer Technology is as follows: smart hardware accounts for 54.17%, smart acoustic systems for 22.17%, precision components for 20.25%, and other supplementary services for 3.41% [1]. Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management has a significant position in Goer Technology. The Caitong Balanced Selection Mixed A Fund (015718) held 423,300 shares, representing 3.13% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the tenth largest holding [2]. - The Caitong Balanced Selection Mixed A Fund has a total scale of 418 million, with a year-to-date return of 25.73%, ranking 2632 out of 8136 in its category [2]. Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager of Caitong Balanced Selection Mixed A Fund is Wang Haobing, who has been in the position for 4 years and 304 days. The total asset size of the fund is 2.226 billion, with the best return during his tenure being 48.65% and the worst return being 9.3% [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and market position of Dazhu CNC, which saw a stock price increase of 5.09% to 111.73 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 47.542 billion CNY [1] - Dazhu CNC specializes in the research, production, and sales of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) specialized equipment, with its main revenue sources being drilling equipment (71.02%), testing equipment (8.78%), and other categories [1] - The company was established on April 22, 2002, and went public on February 28, 2022, indicating a relatively recent entry into the public market [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management has Dazhu CNC as its tenth largest holding, with 87,200 shares, accounting for 4.84% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund, Caitong Zhenxiang Growth Mixed A (016605), has achieved a year-to-date return of 27.11% and a one-year return of 24.09%, ranking 2466 out of 8136 and 3020 out of 8058 respectively in its category [2] - The fund manager, Chen Li, has been in position for nearly four years, with the fund's total asset size currently at 1.76 million CNY [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of investment and financing coordination development in the securities industry, predicting a sustained industry boom in 2026 [8][16][20] - The report maintains a "market synchronization" investment rating for the securities sector, highlighting the expected strong performance of the equity market in 2026 [8][16][20] Group 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Recommendations - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction for capital market reform, emphasizing the need for a more inclusive and adaptable market system [14][15] - The plan aims to enhance the coordination of investment and financing functions within the capital market, promoting high-quality development [15][20] Group 2: 2025 Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed securities firms showed significant recovery, with revenues increasing by 42.55% year-on-year and net profits rising by 62.38% [8][16][20] - The main drivers of this performance were retail brokerage, margin financing, and directional equity business, while fixed income and asset management businesses experienced declines [8][16][20] Group 3: 2026 Business Outlook - The brokerage business is expected to maintain high levels of activity, with average daily stock trading volumes remaining at historical highs [8][16][20] - Investment banking is projected to see a continued recovery in equity financing, while debt financing will also grow, contributing positively to overall revenue [8][16][20] - The asset management sector is anticipated to experience narrow fluctuations in revenue, with limited impact on overall performance [8][16][20] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading listed securities firms that are likely to play a pivotal role in the sector's recovery [8][16][20] - It also highlights the importance of mid-sized firms with differentiated competitive advantages and those with strong performance resilience [8][16][20] - Key recommended companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, GF Securities, Dongwu Securities, Caitong Securities, and Guojin Securities [8][16][20] Group 5: Market Trends - The securities sector is expected to experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with average valuations around 1.54 times P/B, consistent with the average over the past decade [8][16][20] - The report notes that the securities index has shown a range-bound performance, underperforming the CSI 300 index [8][16][20]

Group 1 - Capital Online's stock increased by 5% to 21.21 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 600 million CNY and a turnover rate of 7.40%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 10.666 billion CNY [1] - The company, founded on July 13, 2005, and listed on July 1, 2020, specializes in high-performance IDC services and cloud services, with revenue composition as follows: cloud hosting and related services 49.89%, IDC services 45.83%, and other income 4.28% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Capital Online, a fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management, the Caitong Digital Economy Mixed Fund A (017483), entered the list in the third quarter, holding 6.7889 million shares, which is 1.73% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 6.8568 million CNY [2] - The Caitong Digital Economy Mixed Fund A was established on December 26, 2022, with a latest scale of 1.069 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 55.61%, ranking 342 out of 8209 in its category, and a one-year return of 45.82%, ranking 549 out of 8129 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Caitong Digital Economy Mixed Fund A is Bao Jianwen, who has been in the position for 4 years and 3 days, managing total assets of 7.888 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 78.24% and the worst being 8.01% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the securities sector, with the National Securities Leading Index (399437) rising by 0.86% and several constituent stocks, including Industrial Securities (601377) and Huatai Securities (601688), showing significant gains of 2.60% and 2.57% respectively [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) has also seen an increase of 0.87%, with the latest price reported at 1.27 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] - Over the past week, the Securities ETF Leader has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 52.51 million yuan, totaling 107 million yuan in net inflows, averaging 15.22 million yuan daily [1] Group 2 - In terms of fiscal performance, the national stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan in the first ten months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty contributing 162.9 billion yuan, marking an impressive 88.1% increase [1] - The announcement of the merger between CICC and Dongxing Securities, as well as Xinda Securities, is expected to significantly enhance comprehensive strength and improve asset efficiency through synergies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] - The ongoing supply-side reforms are viewed as a crucial long-term change in the industry, with expectations for valuation recovery in the sector driven by market activity and potential inflows from retail investors [1]

利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].