丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 保险长钱入市，聚焦红利与科创 ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 48 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周银行板块连续第三周回调，主要市场风险偏好继续回升，前期寻求防御的活跃资金流出， 同时债市进一步调整，扰动投资收益。个股层面，前期领涨的国有行 A 股、光大银行 H 股领 跌，南京银行周中成为四季度以来首家创历史新高的中小银行。当前位置我们依然强调短期风 格变化不影响银行股重估方向，调整后继续看好交通银行/招商银行等大型银行，以及南京银行 /江苏银行/杭州银行等大市值的头部城商行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 1 [Table_Title 保险长钱入市，聚焦红利与科创 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 48 周 [Table_Summary2] 保险风险因子再松绑，鼓励长期配置红利低波与科创方向。 国家金融监督管理总局调整保险公司相关业务风险因子：1）持仓时间超过三年的沪深 300 ...

据该负责人介绍，试点企业可以凭收付款指令直接开展跨境资金划转，除证券投资以外的资本项目，不 受投注差外债、全口径跨境融资、境外放款等额度和审批限制。 "这次自由贸易账户功能升级的最大制度突破在于实现了从'分账核算'向'本外币一体化管理'的跨 越。"上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚表示，新政策通过建立统一的账户管理框架，允许企 业在单一账户体系内完成本外币资金的自由兑换和调拨，大幅简化了操作流程。 "特别是在跨境资金池管理、跨境双向人民币资金池等创新业务上，企业不再需要在多个账户间反复腾 挪，资金使用效率显著提升。"曾刚说。 中曼石油（603619）天然气集团股份有限公司（以下简称"中曼石油"）作为上海市高新技术企业，凭借 423项自主专利构建起上下游一体化业务体系，依托硬核科技创新实力与市场竞争力，产品远销全球五 大洲十余个国家。试行办法实施当天，中曼石油在农业银行上海分行的协助下，完成了首笔业务办理。 12月5日，中国人民银行上海总部发布的《上海自由贸易试验区自由贸易账户功能升级实施办法（试 行）》（以下简称"试行办法"）正式施行，进一步提升跨境贸易投资自由化便利化水平。 《金融时报》记者了解到，试行 ...

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are showing strong performance, particularly focusing on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks, with the value ETF (510030) experiencing a price increase of 0.37% as of the report time [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The value ETF (510030) saw an intraday price increase of nearly 1%, closing up 0.37% [1]. - Key stocks in the ETF include securities and insurance companies, with notable gains from firms like Industrial Securities (up 8.33%) and Huatai Securities (up 4.63%) [1]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of the last trading day (December 5), the value ETF's underlying index, the 180 Value Index, had a price-to-book ratio of 0.84, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, indicating strong medium to long-term investment value [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The securities industry is expected to experience high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, playing a core role in serving the real economy and optimizing household wealth allocation [1]. - Policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission are anticipated to create structural investment opportunities and long-term value reconstruction in the securities sector [1]. - The high dividend sector, particularly banks and oil companies, has shown strong performance, with expectations for market risk preferences to recover in December [4].

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are showing strong performance, with a focus on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks in the value ETF (510030), which saw an intraday price increase of nearly 1% and a current rise of 0.37% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The value ETF (510030) is closely tracking the Shanghai 180 Value Index, which has a price-to-book ratio of 0.84, indicating a relative low valuation at the 34.9 percentile over the past decade, highlighting its mid to long-term investment appeal [3] - Key stocks in the ETF include major financial sector leaders, with notable gains such as 8.33% for Xingye Securities and 4.63% for Niu Dou Securities, among others [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The securities industry is expected to experience high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, playing a core role in serving the real economy and optimizing wealth allocation [1] - Policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission are expected to create structural investment opportunities and long-term value reconstruction in the securities sector, particularly benefiting leading brokerages [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The high dividend sector remains strong, with oil and petrochemical stocks performing particularly well in November, and expectations for a recovery in market risk appetite in December [3] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is at 12 times, close to historical averages, suggesting that the Chinese stock market may still have room for expansion [3]

2026中国（广州）国际智慧金融产业展览会 时 间：2026年6月27日-29日 地 点：广州琶洲保利世贸博览馆 【前 言】 智慧金融是在互联网时代，传统金融服务演化的更高级阶段。它的实现是基于大规模的真实数据分析， 因此智慧金融的决策更能贴近用户的需求。智慧金融代表未来金融业的发展方向，相较于传统金融，智 慧金融效率更高，服务成本更低。 在金融市场的不断发展中，技术是重要的驱动力。继互联网+之后，人工智能+金融又是一个重要发展 趋势，"智能金融"不单单是"人工智能+金融"的简单叠加，还是人工智能技术与业务场景融合后的表现 形式，是经人工智能赋能后的金融新业态和新模式。 随着互联网技术的大规模普及，金融行业对数据技术的应用需求呈现井喷态势。金融发展作为现代经济 的核心也伴随着技术的迭代跃上了一个新的台阶。如今，是否充分利用数据资产已经成为金融企业核心 竞争力的体现。金融企业对数据的实时监控、智能交互以及可视化应用呈现出迫切的需求。当大数据的 潜力通过可视化等技术手段显现时，前所未见的趋势与规律就很容易被发现，为决策者提供"战略信 息"，助力金融企业发现巨大商机。金融行业的白热化竞争更要求企业能够以自身需求为导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Green City China, Jianfa International Group, New China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [12][42][44]. Core Views - The report highlights the increasing pressure on corporate earnings in the short term, with a focus on the potential for export recovery in the coming year [9][10]. - The real estate sector is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for policy support to alleviate burdens on homebuyers [11]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing an optimized market structure, with high growth potential in the securities industry [15]. - The banking sector is expected to see accelerated valuation reassessment driven by strong allocation forces [17]. - The new energy sector is at a bottoming phase, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [20]. - The machinery sector is approaching mass production of humanoid robots, focusing on core supply chain targets [25]. - The military industry is expected to improve, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and military-to-civilian transitions [27]. - The light industry is emphasizing opportunities in overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption [30]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The real estate sector is under increasing downward pressure, particularly in core cities, with expectations for policy measures to lower home purchase thresholds [11]. - Key companies like Green City China and Jianfa International Group are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and sales performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Non-Bank Financial - The securities industry is expected to maintain high growth, with significant improvements in insurance companies' performance [15][16]. - New China Life Insurance is noted for its leading elasticity and potential for growth in the equity market [16]. Banking - The report emphasizes the ongoing valuation repair in the banking sector, particularly for large state-owned banks and city commercial banks [17][19]. - Bank of Communications is highlighted for its low PB valuation compared to peers, indicating potential for significant upside [19]. New Energy - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on solar, storage, and lithium battery technologies [20][21]. - Companies like Sunshine Power and Siling Co. are recommended for their growth potential in the energy storage market [22][23]. Machinery - The humanoid robot sector is approaching mass production, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic expected to benefit from this trend [25][26]. Military - The military sector is projected to see upward trends in military trade and civilian applications of military technology [27][28]. Light Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption opportunities, with companies like Simor International and Aorijin highlighted for their growth potential [30][32][34]. Environmental - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Ice Wheel Environment noted for their growth prospects [35][40][41].

从各家银行经营情况来看，信用卡业务亦明显缩水。据Wind数据及各家财报，2025年上半年，国有行 及股份行信用卡贷款余额合计约7.5万亿元，较2024年末减少近6000亿元。与此同时，信用卡消费总额 同比下降约8%。其中，招商银行以20210亿元的交易额继续居首，但同比仍下降8.54%；交通银行的降 幅则达到11%。 信用卡数量三季度再减少800万张，三年来已累计减少约1亿张。 日前，中国人民银行发布的《2025年第三季度支付体系运行总体情况》显示，截至三季度末，全国信用 卡及借贷合一卡累计发卡量为7.07亿张，与二季度末的7.15亿张相比，减少了800万张。相较2022年同期 的历史高点8.07亿张，三年来累计减少约1亿张，并已连续12个季度呈下降趋势。 信用卡专家董峥表示，这一数据不仅显示信用卡整体规模连续收缩，也意味着长期依赖发卡量扩张的粗 放经营模式正在退出历史舞台。 与此同时，截至今年上半年，信用卡不良贷款率已升至2.40%，银行体系不良压力明显增加，多家机构 通过银登中心加速批量转让逾期资产。仅11月，就有超百亿元个人消费贷不良资产包完成交易，显示银 行在风险处置上正加快节奏。 信用卡规模连续下滑 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index experienced a sharp drop after opening but rebounded significantly, closing up by 0.58% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index led the gains, rising by 1.33%, with notable increases from Baidu Group (up 5.01%), Kuaishou (up 2.52%), and Xiaomi Group (up 1.91%) [3] - The banking sector showed signs of recovery, with a 0.28% increase, highlighted by China Merchants Bank (up 2.09%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (up 1.77%) [3] Group 2 - Despite the overall market rebound, some banks like Everbright Bank fell by 1.91%, while others like Agricultural Bank of China and Minsheng Bank also saw slight declines [3] - The pharmaceutical sector faced mixed results, with companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene experiencing declines, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical saw an increase of 3.66% [3]

12月5日，随着《上海自由贸易试验区自由贸易账户功能升级实施办法（试行）》正式施行，交通银行上海市分行当日即为两家试点企业成功办理 FTE账户功能升级，成为上海地区首批落地该业务的试点银行，标志着交行在自贸区金融创新领域再迈关键一步。 业务的顺利落地离不开中国人民银行上海总部的悉心指导与支持。政策筹备阶段，交行上海市分行多次参加人行上海总部组织的政策调研与专 题座谈，协助收集相关企业反映业务诉求及政策建议，使最终落地的政策更贴合市场主体需求。办法实施前夕，人行上海总部组织的政策解 读，为银行精准吃透政策、合规推进业务提供了关键指引，有效赋能金融创新服务实体经济发展。 试点行的入围与业务的成功落地，是交通银行上海市分行深耕自贸区金融服务、满足实体企业新发展需求、深化上海自贸区跨境资金流动管理 制度型开放的重要成果，为客户跨境资金统筹管理及调拨使用注入了高效动能，充分彰显了交通银行在跨境金融领域的专业服务能力、创新实 践水平与行业引领地位。 自2 0 2 5年6月《上海自由贸易试验区自由贸易账户功能升级试点实施办法（征求意见稿）》下发后，交通银行上海市分行快速响应政策导向， 精准对接核心要点，锚定自贸区内多家符合 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The current bottom line for the net interest margin (NIM) of major banks is approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating limited room for further significant declines [1][6][84] - Maintaining a reasonable level of NIM is essential for economic growth and financial stability, as it relates to capital balance, breakeven points, and risk pricing mechanisms [6][20][21] Group 2: NIM Bottom Line Calculation - The projected nominal GDP growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 6.0% and 6.9%, which necessitates an M2 growth rate of about 7.0% to 8.0% [1][23][28] - The bottom line for NIM is calculated based on a required return on equity (ROE) of 7% to 8%, leading to a NIM bottom line of approximately 1.2% to 1.3% [36][84] Group 3: 2026 NIM Projections - If the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) and deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps in 2026 [2][85] - Without considering further interest rate cuts, the model predicts a decrease in loan rates by about 24 bps and deposit rates by 14 to 17 bps, resulting in a net interest margin contraction of about 2 to 5 bps [2][39][59] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to be characterized by a "reasonable and ample" approach, with a likely LPR decrease of 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [3][86] - The central bank's strategy will focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting economic growth while maintaining the health of the banking system [60][61] Group 5: Economic Recovery and Regulatory Impact - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, and regulatory changes could temporarily impact the banking sector's fundamentals [4][80] - The banking sector is under strong regulatory oversight, and any adverse policies could affect short-term valuations [80]