Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is currently experiencing a sales downturn, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, due to a combination of factors including a shift in vehicle purchase tax policy and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - In January, nationwide retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.794 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% and a month-on-month drop of 31.9% [3]. - The performance of major automotive brands showed a pattern of "year-on-year differentiation and month-on-month decline," with domestic brands benefiting from their EV offerings while facing pressure from the tax policy change [3][4]. Domestic Brand Performance - Geely Auto topped domestic sales in January with 270,200 units sold, achieving a year-on-year growth of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [5]. - SAIC Group reported sales of 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, while its domestic brand sales reached 214,000 units, up 39.6% year-on-year [6]. - GAC Group's sales were 116,600 units, marking an 18.47% year-on-year increase, with its domestic brands showing explosive growth [6]. Joint Venture Brands - Major joint venture brands like GAC Toyota and SAIC General saw a recovery in January, with GAC Toyota selling 63,600 units, a nearly 10% year-on-year increase [9][11]. - SAIC General's sales reached 51,000 units, up 8.2% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in its EV and export segments [11][12]. Export Growth - The overseas market has emerged as a significant growth driver for domestic automakers, with many companies reporting export growth rates exceeding 40% [13][14]. - Chery Group exported 119,600 units in January, a 48.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining its position as the top exporter in China [14]. - Geely's overseas sales reached 60,500 units, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 121% [16]. Industry Trends - The overall trend indicates that by 2026, China's automotive export volume is expected to reach 7.4 million units, with EV exports projected to exceed 30% of total exports [17].

Core Insights - The 2025 Hurun China 500 list shows significant growth in company valuations, with TSMC leading as the highest valued private enterprise in China at 10.5 trillion RMB, followed by Tencent and ByteDance [1][9]. Company Performance - TSMC's value increased by 3.5 trillion RMB, driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence, advanced process technology, and a solid market position [3][11]. - Tencent's valuation rose by 1.9 trillion RMB, attributed to strong performance in gaming, advertising, and fintech [3][11]. - ByteDance's value grew by 1.8 trillion RMB, benefiting from advancements in AI [3][11]. - Alibaba's value increased by 1.2 trillion RMB, due to strategic investments in AI and cloud computing, alongside a recovery in traditional e-commerce [4][12]. - CATL's valuation rose by 690 billion RMB, supported by sustained demand in the electric vehicle market [4][12]. - Xiaomi entered the top ten with a valuation increase of 357 billion RMB, driven by growth in its automotive business and premium smartphone sales [4][12]. - Other notable companies include Cambricon, which saw a valuation increase of 370 billion RMB, and NetEase, which grew by 238 billion RMB due to strong gaming performance [4][12]. Industry Trends - The total value of the Hurun China 500 companies increased by 21 trillion RMB (38%) to reach 77 trillion RMB [2][10]. - The semiconductor industry experienced the most significant growth, surpassing the life sciences sector to become the second-largest industry in the list, while industrial products remained the largest [2][10]. - The real estate sector faced the largest decline, followed by retail [2][10]. - The average age of the top 500 companies is 29 years, indicating a relatively young corporate landscape [11]. Geographic Insights - Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are the top three cities with the most companies on the list, housing 59, 57, and 49 companies respectively [2][10]. - Suzhou emerged as the preferred manufacturing base with 68 companies, while Shanghai was the leading research and development hub with 101 companies [2][10]. New Entrants and Market Dynamics - A total of 95 companies (19%) made it to the list for the first time, with seven companies valued over 100 billion RMB [2][10]. - The threshold for entry into the 2025 Hurun China 500 increased by 7.5 billion RMB to 34 billion RMB, reflecting a 28% rise [2][10].

雅迪重庆基地生产车间 重庆市永川区城市一角 长城汽车永川工厂 永川科技片场 数据印证了永川产业崛起的坚实步伐：地区生产总值连续多年稳步攀升，2025年实现规上工业总产值 1050.7亿元，规上工业企业数量达394家，是国家定位的现代制造业基地、西部职教基地，也是重庆支 持建设的城市副中心。 "我们将按照市委、市政府部署，持续提升城市综合承载力、经济辐射力和示范引领力，把区位优势、 产教优势转化为产业胜势，推动传统产业筑基、新兴产业聚能、未来产业布局，为成渝地区双城经济圈 建设贡献更强永川力量。"永川区相关负责人表示。 ◎记者 李少鹏 链聚实业：筑强集群根基，激活产业发展新动能 永川茶山竹海 城以"永"为名，寄寓永续发展之愿；业以"川"为脉，承载川流不息之兴。 重庆市永川区——这座承载千年文脉的古城，东接重庆主城，西连四川泸州，得天独厚的区位优势，使 其自古便是川渝黔交通要冲、商贸重镇，更成为如今成渝地区双城经济圈建设中不可或缺的产业枢纽。 近年来，永川牢牢把握制造业高质量发展核心，以"3322"现代制造业集群体系建设为抓手，聚焦智能网 联新能源汽车摩托车及零部件、新材料、大数据及人工智能三大重点产业，夯实消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant profitability challenges, with many companies reporting losses for 2025, particularly in the passenger vehicle sector, while some commercial vehicle manufacturers show improved profitability [1][10]. Passenger Vehicle Companies - Among the seven passenger vehicle companies, only SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors are expected to be profitable in 2025, with SAIC Motor projecting a net profit of approximately 9 billion to 11 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 438% to 558% compared to 2024 [3][4]. - Great Wall Motors anticipates a net profit of about 9.912 billion yuan for 2025, representing a decline of 21.71% from 2024 [4]. - Other companies like Haima, Zotye, and GAC Group are expected to incur losses, with GAC Group projecting a net loss of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan, a drastic drop of 1071% to 1193% compared to the previous year [5][6]. Commercial Vehicle Companies - The commercial vehicle sector shows a more favorable outlook, with five out of eight companies expected to be profitable in 2025 [1][7]. - Beiqi Foton is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 1.33 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1551% compared to 2024 [8][9]. - Other companies like Xiamen Jinlong and Zhongtong Bus also expect profit growth, driven by increased sales in overseas markets [9]. Industry Trends and Challenges - The overall automotive industry is experiencing pressure on profitability, with a sales profit margin of only 4.1%, significantly lower than the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [12]. - The industry is facing rising costs, particularly in raw materials, which are squeezing profit margins [12]. - A shift towards a "value war" rather than a price war is emerging, as companies seek to maintain brand value and reasonable profits [13]. - The automotive service market is expected to become a crucial profit pool, potentially matching the manufacturing sector by 2030, highlighting the need for companies to diversify their revenue streams [13][14].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车（601633.SH） [Table_Title] 长城汽车点评：单车营收持续增长，年终奖、政 府补贴等因素短期扰动盈利 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年实现归母净利润 99.1 亿元，同比下滑 21.7%。公司加速全球化布局，坚定新能源 转型，持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看，公司四大拓展战略打开销量 长期增长空间，智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长城汽车（601633.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车点评：单车营收持续增长，年终奖、政 2] 府补贴等因素短期扰动盈利 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 长城汽车 2025 年实现归母净利润 99.1 ...

Group 1 - The passenger car sector increased by 1.81% compared to the previous trading day, with Beiqi Blue Valley leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Major stocks in the passenger car sector showed varying performance, with Beiqi Blue Valley closing at 8.27, up 3.89%, and BYD at 89.14, up 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the passenger car sector was 988 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 541 million yuan [1] - The fund flow data indicates that BYD had a main fund net inflow of 457.1 million yuan, but a retail net outflow of 219 million yuan [2] - Beiqi Blue Valley experienced a main fund net inflow of 200 million yuan, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 11.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a 25% growth in sales for Chinese new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers by 2025, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in December 2025 is expected to lead to a recovery period in January 2026, with some consumers likely to make purchases in December to benefit from the policy [2]. - January 2023 saw a decline of 8% in new energy vehicle sales due to the withdrawal of subsidies, while January 2024 experienced a positive growth despite the anticipated policy changes [2]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and contributions from exports have positively influenced January's sales performance [2]. Group 2: Sales Data - According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, manufacturers with sales exceeding 10,000 units in December accounted for 93% of the total new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales for that month [3]. - Preliminary data for January indicates that these manufacturers achieved sales of 830,000 units, leading to an estimated total of 900,000 new energy passenger vehicles sold nationwide in January, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [4][3]. Group 3: Leading Manufacturers - Key manufacturers such as GAC Aion, XPeng Motors, and Great Wall Motors reported significant sales figures in January, with GAC Aion leading at 21,635 units sold [8]. - Other notable performances include XPeng Motors with 20,011 units, Great Wall Motors with 18,019 units, and FAW Hongqi with 8,265 units [8]. - The total estimated sales for manufacturers exceeding 10,000 units in January amounted to 832,461, representing 93% of the total market share for that month [8].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark contrast, with most automakers experiencing negative growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, highlighting the importance of having a diversified product lineup that includes both fuel and electric vehicles [5][6][7]. Sales Performance Summary - In January, the retail sales of passenger cars are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4%, with NEV sales around 800,000 units, marking a penetration rate drop to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [6][7]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and GAC Toyota reported stable sales due to their dual strategy of offering both fuel and NEVs, with SAIC's total sales reaching 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [10][11]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicles contributing significantly to its performance, while BYD faced a 30.11% decline in NEV sales, indicating the challenges faced by companies heavily reliant on NEVs [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The differentiation in sales performance among automakers is attributed to their strategic choices, particularly the presence of a fuel vehicle base, which enhances resilience against market fluctuations [9][19]. - The demand for fuel vehicles surged during the pre-Spring Festival period, as consumers preferred mature technology and the convenience of fuel vehicles for long-distance travel, further supported by the limited impact of policy changes on fuel vehicles [19][20]. Export Growth - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with companies like Chery and SAIC reporting significant increases in overseas sales, indicating a dual strategy of maintaining domestic stability while expanding globally [17][18]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions signal a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, emphasizing the need for automakers to maintain a balanced portfolio of fuel and NEVs to navigate future uncertainties [22]. - Companies that can effectively manage their fuel vehicle base while rapidly advancing in the NEV sector are likely to emerge as market leaders, while those focusing solely on NEVs may face greater risks during market fluctuations [21][22].

2025年的中国汽车市场，在政策延续与市场竞争的双重作用下，交出了一份兼具规模与质量的成绩单。产销连续17年稳居全球第一的背后，是新能源汽车的 强势领跑、自主品牌的持续崛起以及出口市场的稳步扩张。从这一串串销量数据中，不仅能看见市场格局的变换，更能清晰把握中国汽车产业由"规模领 先"迈向"质量取胜"的转型路径。 整体市场：产销再创新高 展现强大发展韧性 2025年，中国汽车产业顶住全球贸易保护、产业链重构及行业竞争加剧等多重压力，实现了超预期增长。中国汽车工业协会数据显示，2025年汽车产销分别 完成3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，产销规模均创下历史新高。这一成绩的取得，离不开政策与市场的同频共振。 2025年初，"两新"政策加力扩围，拓展了消费品类别、设备更新支持范围，有效激活了车辆置换消费需求，尤其是三四线城市及下沉市场，老旧车辆更新换 代成为拉动销量的重要动力。与此同时，新能源汽车购置税的平稳过渡与充电基础设施的持续完善，进一步降低了新能源汽车潜在消费者的购车门槛和用车 顾虑。从市场需求来看，当前的消费结构正在发生明显变化，智能化配置、绿色出行成为消费者购车的重要考量因 ...