丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车（601633.SH） [Table_Title] 长城汽车一季报点评：受俄罗斯车市疲软及短期 营销加大营销，短期业绩承压 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 Q1 实现营业收入 400.2 亿元，归母净利润 17.5 亿元，对应单车收入 15.6 万元，单 车盈利 0.7 万元。公司坚定新能源转型，在产品、渠道、供应链三个维度充分调整，积极变革 创新，持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看，公司四大拓展战略打开销量 长期增长空间，智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 长城汽车（601633.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车一季报2] 点评：受俄罗斯车市疲软及短 期营销加大营销，短期业绩承压 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 长城汽车 20 ...

长城汽车4月汽车销量100061辆，同比增长5.55%；4月新能源车销量28813辆。 ...

穆峰认为，从使用场景上来看，主力车场景和代步车场景采取PHEV或者混动车型更适合，也就是泛内 燃机的产品。代步车因为行驶距离短，所处环境相对简单，更适合发展BEV。"因此，就家庭主力车型市 场，长城汽车会坚定不移地走泛内燃机路线。"穆峰表示，4.0TV8这种大排量动力所带来的愉悦感是电 机很难比拟的。此外，"大排量等于豪华车"的观念也深入人心。因此，长城汽车现在的一系列动作，主 要是为了发力全球市场。 "目前中国车企普遍对品牌全球化布局非常重视。"穆峰透露道，全球化进程中，长城汽车更加强调合作 共赢，坚守底线，尊重规则，反对"不赚钱卖车、降低服务标准"等违背秩序、损害中国汽车整体形象的 行为。 2025上海国际车展期间，长城汽车（601633）展示了全球首创的新能源四驱混动系统Hi4，并首发自主研 发的4.0TV8发动机。 "长城汽车不做非油即电的割裂选择，而是基于全球用户的需求和场景，让内燃机和电驱系统搭档，使每 一款车型更适配本地需求。"长城汽车总裁穆峰指出，油电协同是能够满足全球整体市场需求的最优动力 路线。 近日，穆峰在接受证券时报.e公司记者采访时，详解了长城汽车发布内燃机产品背后的逻辑。 穆峰表示 ...

"我们的产品能够为用户带来极致的体验感和情绪价值，没有必要再去做增程这种技术。"在4月23日开 幕的2025上海车展上，长城汽车（601633）股份有限公司首席增长官(CGO)李瑞峰在接受包括经济观察 报在内的媒体采访时表示。这一观点，是对近日长城汽车"打死不做增程"言论的再度强调。 长城汽车是当下行业内少数坚持不涉足增程式混动的车企，并认为其Hi4技术路线是更好的混动解决方 案。李瑞峰表示，在混动领域，长城汽车基于对高效发动机、变速器、电驱动等核心技术的深度整合， 打造了Hi4技术体系。该体系涵盖Hi4、Hi4性能版、Hi4-Z、Hi4-T和Hi4-G架构等多元化混动技术产品， 构建起从乘用车到商用车的完整混动生态，实现了各技术路径针对不同场景需求的差异化布局。 当前，汽车市场竞争日益激烈，长城的新能源汽车面临着多方压力。一方面，BBA(奔驰、宝马、奥 迪)、大众、丰田等合资车企纷纷推出激进的新能源战略，到2026年，这些车企基于新架构的新能源车 型将陆续投放市场，市场格局将进入全新阶段；另一方面，2027年新能源汽车免购置税补贴退出后，燃 油车和新能源车将站在同一起跑线上竞争。在此背景下，长城汽车如何保持 ...

2023年12月12日，公司召开第八届董事会第八次会议及第八届监事会第七次会议并 于2024年1月26日召开2024年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过《关于<长城汽车股份有限 公司2023年第二期员工持股计划（草案）>及其摘要的议案》《关于<长城汽车股份有限 公司2023年第二期员工持股计划管理办法>的议案》《关于提请股东大会授权董事会办理 公司2023年第二期员工持股计划有关事项的议案》等议案。详见公司于2023年12月12日 及2024年1月26日在指定信息披露媒体发布的相关公告。 | 证券代码：601633 | 证券简称：长城汽车 | 公告编号：2025-059 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113049 | 转债简称：长汽转债 | | 长城汽车股份有限公司 关于 2023 年第二期员工持股计划第一个锁定期符合解锁条件的股 份非交易过户完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《长城汽车股份有限公司2023年第二期员工持股计划》（以下简称"《2023年第二 期员工持股计划》" ...

专利摘要显示，本申请涉及智慧车辆领域，提供了一种尾气排放控制方法、装置、设备和车辆。其中方 法包括：获取目标车辆的尾气变化特征和预设未来时段内的天气预报；将尾气变化特征和天气预报输入 预先训练的尾气排放预测模型进行分析，确定预设未来时段内的排放预测结果；其中，所述排放预测结 果为所述目标车辆在所述未来时段内的尾气排放范围；在预设未来时段的行车过程中，根据排放预测结 果中预设未来时段内的尾气排放范围，调取与所述预设未来时段内的尾气排放范围对应的尾气排放的目 标参数，并基于所述尾气排放的目标参数控制目标车辆的尾气排放。本申请技术方案，能够有效提高模 型生成的预测结果的多面性和对天气的适应性，提高了尾气排放管理的灵活性。 天眼查资料显示，长城汽车股份有限公司，成立于2001年，位于保定市，是一家以从事汽车制造业为主 的企业。企业注册资本848655.9123万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，长城汽车股份有限公司共对外 投资了74家企业，参与招投标项目2341次，财产线索方面有商标信息5000条，专利信息5000条，此外企 业还拥有行政许可612个。 金融界2025年4月30日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，长城汽车股份 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，财务方面，25Q1 公司实现营收400.2 亿元，同比-6.6%；归母净利润 17.5 亿元，同比-45.6%；扣非归母净利润14.7 亿元，同比-27.4%；销量方面，25Q1 实现销量25.7 万 辆，其中海外9.1 万辆。 25Q1 产品换代销量业绩阶段性承压，3 月起重磅车型密集上市拐点将至；销量层面，25Q1 公司销量 25.7 万辆，其中海外销售9.1 万台，新能源车销售6.3 万台，同比+5.7%。 财务层面，25Q1 实现营收400.2 亿元，同比-6.6%；归母净利润17.5 亿元，同比-45.6%。 盈利能力方面，25Q1 公司毛利率17.8％，同比-2.2pct；25Q1 公司期间费用率10.3%，同比-0.8pct，整体 保持稳定；净利率为4.4％，同比-3.2pct。其中，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 5.7%/2.3%/4.8%/-2.6%，同比+1.8/0.0/+0.2/-2.8pct，销售费用提升主要用于直营渠道拓展和新车上市预 热投入。由于哈弗、魏牌、坦克品牌处于产品换代期，25Q1 销量短期承压导致业绩阶段性受影响；往 后看，3 月起 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 40 billion RMB, down 7% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.8 billion RMB, down 46% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, which was below expectations due to product inventory adjustments and increased direct sales costs [1][2]. - The launch of the second-generation Xiaolong MAX in April is expected to boost revenue and profit as the company transitions to new energy vehicles, alongside the new pricing and features of the Weipai Gaoshan model [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - The company sold 260,000 new vehicles in Q1, a decrease of 7% year-on-year. The gross margin was 18%, a decrease of 2% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1% year-on-year. The average selling price (ASP) and gross profit per vehicle were 160,000 RMB and 30,000 RMB, respectively [2]. - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 5.7%, 2.3%, 4.8%, and -2.6%, respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to new vehicle marketing and direct sales investments [2]. Product Launches - The second-generation Xiaolong MAX was launched at a starting price of 116,800 RMB, featuring advanced four-wheel drive technology and a low fuel consumption rate of 0.97L/100km, which is expected to achieve monthly sales of over 8,000 units [3]. - The Weipai Gaoshan model has been revamped with a price drop and enhanced features, with expected monthly sales of over 6,000 units as it targets the mainstream MPV market [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 15.3 billion, 18.6 billion, and 20.1 billion RMB, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 22x for A-shares and 11x for H-shares, with target prices set at 39.69 RMB and 20.95 HKD, respectively [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.6% in Q1 2025, with a net profit drop of 45.6% due to product replacement cycles and significant investments in new models and direct sales systems [3][4] - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the strong new product cycle and ongoing expansion in overseas markets, particularly with the Tank and Wey brands [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 400.19 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 17.51 billion yuan, down 45.6% [3] - Sales volume in Q1 decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, with notable declines in Haval, Tank, and Ora brands, while Wey brand sales increased by 38.7% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 139.72 billion yuan (-4.71%), 169.78 billion yuan (-2.70%), and 189.95 billion yuan (-8.08%) respectively [3] Product and Market Development - The company is set to launch several new models, including the second-generation Haval Big Dog and the new Tank 500, which are expected to drive sales growth [4] - Great Wall Motors is actively expanding its overseas presence, with new factories in Thailand and Brazil, and plans to adapt its product offerings for diverse markets [4] - The company is enhancing its smart driving technology, with the Wey brand's Blue Mountain NOA system being rolled out nationally [4] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 14.0, 11.6, and 10.3 respectively [3][6] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.9%, 13.0%, and 8.9% respectively [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve record high revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a new product cycle, affordable intelligent driving features, and continuous expansion in exports [3][7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.6% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is entering a new product cycle with multiple new models set to launch, which is anticipated to boost sales momentum starting from March 2025 [8][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 173.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26% year-on-year; for 2024A, it is projected at 202.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is 7.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 15%; for 2024A, it is expected to rise to 12.69 billion yuan, an increase of 81% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 0.82 yuan, projected to increase to 1.48 yuan in 2024A [4] Sales and Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company sold 257,000 vehicles, including 91,000 units sold overseas and 63,000 units of new energy vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [6][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, alongside maintaining stable sales in Russia [8][6] Product and Innovation Strategy - The company plans to launch several new models across its five major brands, including Haval, Wey, Tank, Ora, and pickup trucks, with significant models expected in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [8][6] - The introduction of affordable intelligent driving features in models priced below 200,000 yuan is expected to enhance competitiveness [8][6] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.4%, down 3.2 percentage points [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 14.5X, 12.6X, and 11.3X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][8]