行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 02 月 03 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉再次 强调 AI 转型——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽 车周报》 2026/02/02 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 再看东南亚；长城汽车业绩快报 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W143） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险，地缘政治风险，行业复苏不及预期 汽车 zhufz@swsresearch.com ⚫ 再看东南亚：东南亚新能源汽车市场相较之前发生了显著变化。从核心数据来看，新加 坡、马来西亚、泰国三国的中国新能源车品牌销量及渗透率增速超出预期，其中一个重 要原因是 2025 年马来、泰国市场中国新能源品牌降价的推动。2026 年以来，东南亚市 ...

1. 长城汽车全年业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月03日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入2474.84~2898.00亿元；预测净利润124.49~175.20亿元。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续A股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构间 | | | | 预测净利润 | 同比 预测和 | | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 | | 2474.84~2898.00 | | 124.49~175.20 | | | - | | 平均数 | | 2722.38 | - | 154.08 | | - | - | | 中位数 | | 2762.39 | -- | 156.00 | - | - | -- | | 光大证券 | 2026-02-02 | 2596.41 | F | 124.49 | -- | -- | -- | | 国联民生证券 | 2026-02-02 | 2898.00 | i | 175.20 | -- | -- | -- | | 平安证券 | 2026-02- ...

据经济观察报-经济观察网 2026年1月，长城汽车销售新车9.03万辆，同比增长11.59%，环比下滑 27.18%。其中，海外销量同比增长43.77%。哈弗品牌销售5.05万辆，同比增长4.03%；魏牌销售7873 辆，同比增长57.24%；坦克品牌销售1.45万辆，同比增长12.92%。上汽集团虽未公布总体销量，但其部 分业务单元已发布数据。上汽乘用车体系中的荣威、MG销量零售超7.8万辆，同比增长9.8%；上汽通用 五菱1月全球销量10.58万辆；上汽通用终端交付5.1万辆，同比增长8.2%。东风汽车旗下，岚图汽车1月 交付1.05万辆，同比增长31%；奕派科技销量2.13万辆，同比增长145%；猛士汽车销售1008辆，同比增 长300%。 ...

进入2026年1月后，新能源汽车购置税开始减半征收，车企购 置税兜底政策也随之结束。另外，1月各地具体的购车补贴细 则尚未全部出台，导致消费者存在观望情绪，影响了车市终端 销售情况。 作者：王帅国 封图：图虫创意 2月1日，各家车企相继发布了1月销量。从整体上看，汽车行业实现2026年"开门红"，大多数车 企1月销量同比取得正增长，但这一同比增长是由于2025年春节在1月，去年同期的新车销售基数 较低。 环比数据上，大多数车企1月销量下滑明显，主要原因在于2025年12月新能源汽车还享受购置税 全额减免政策，同时车企为年底冲量，在12月出台了许多其他优惠政策。进入2026年1月后，新 能源汽车购置税开始减半征收，车企购置税兜底政策也随之结束。另外，1月各地具体的购车补贴 细则尚未全部出台，导致消费者存在观望情绪，影响了车市终端销售情况。 广汽集团1月销量为11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%，环比下滑37.79%。其中自主品牌销量超4.9 万辆，同比增长87.58%；海外销量同比增长68.59%。分品牌来看，昊铂+埃安销量2.16万辆， 同比大增171.63%；传祺品牌销量2.77万辆，同比增长51.06%； ...

Core Insights - January saw a significant reshuffling in the domestic automotive market, with new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax reinstatement and demand being pulled forward due to promotions leading to changes in rankings among new players [1] - New energy vehicle companies showed a clear divergence in January sales, with Zeekr, NIO, and Xiaomi Auto experiencing over 90% year-on-year growth, while Li Auto and Xpeng faced declines [1][2] Sales Performance - Hommage Zhixing delivered 57,900 vehicles in January, with the AITO brand contributing 40,000 units, accounting for 69.1% of total deliveries [2] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 39,000 vehicles, marking a 95% year-on-year increase, despite a 22% month-on-month decline [2] - Leap Motor's January deliveries reached 32,100 units, with plans to hit a sales target of 1 million vehicles in 2026 [2] - Li Auto's deliveries were 27,700 units, entering a self-adjustment phase due to supply chain issues affecting production [3] - NIO delivered 27,200 vehicles, with a significant year-on-year increase of 163% driven by the new ES8 model [3] - Xpeng delivered approximately 20,000 vehicles, focusing on new product launches for 2026 [4] Traditional Automakers - Geely topped the sales chart in January with 270,200 units sold, a 1.29% year-on-year increase and a 14.08% month-on-month increase, driven by the Zeekr brand [5][6] - BYD's sales fell to 210,100 units, a 30.11% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak domestic demand [6] - GAC Group reported sales of 116,600 units, an 18.47% year-on-year increase, although it faced a 37.81% month-on-month decline [7][8] - Chery Group's total sales were 190,000 units, down 10.7% year-on-year, with only the Chery brand showing growth [8] - Great Wall Motors sold 90,300 vehicles, an 11.60% year-on-year increase, with a notable 30% growth in NEV sales [9]

Group 1 - The passenger car sector increased by 1.12% on February 3, with Seres leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the passenger car sector showed varied performance, with Seres and Haima Auto both rising by 2.82% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the passenger car sector was 117 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 314 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicated that Seres had a main fund net inflow of 172 million yuan, but retail investors had a net outflow of 85 million yuan [2] - BYD experienced a significant net outflow of 379 million yuan from main funds, despite a retail net inflow of 386 million yuan [2]

交银国际发布研报称，认为长城汽车（601633）(02333)中期仍受益于"高端化+新能源+出海"方向，但 4Q25已体现投入加大对利润的阶段性挤压。暂维持"买入"评级与目标价22.50港元，待年报披露后重点 跟踪费用结构、单车盈利与渠道效率变化并更新预测。 交银国际主要观点如下： 2025年业绩：销量与营收增长，利润受战略投入拖累 4Q25长城营收692.08亿元（同比+15.46%，环比+13%），单车收入17.29万元；销量超40万台（同比 +5.49%，环比+13.22%），其中新能源销量12.52万台、海外销量17.19万辆，均保持较强增长。4Q25净 利润为12.77亿元，环比下滑44.4%，主要为一次性计提全年年终奖所致；管理层披露2025年预提年终奖 约46亿元（同比+8亿元），还原后盈利基本面依旧稳健。同时，直营费用同比增加17亿+、广告投入同 比增长，叠加新店爬坡期（约6个月）导致费用效率尚未完全体现，影响季度利润表现。 2026展望：出海上量+直营提效，有望带来利润修复 长城提出2026年海外销量挑战60万台，且4Q25已在多区域加快渠道签约，为2026年增量获取奠定基 础。直营方面，长 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，认为长城汽车(02333)中期仍受益于"高端化+新能源+出 海"方向，但4Q25已体现投入加大对利润的阶段性挤压。暂维持"买入"评级与目标价22.50港元，待年报 披露后重点跟踪费用结构、单车盈利与渠道效率变化并更新预测。 交银国际主要观点如下： 2026展望：出海上量+直营提效，有望带来利润修复 长城提出2026年海外销量挑战60万台，且4Q25已在多区域加快渠道签约，为2026年增量获取奠定基 础。直营方面，长城预计2026年魏牌将进入"提效+上规模"阶段，并认为规模化后有助将部分渠道利润 回流至企业端；同时管理层亦表示直营费用未来增量不会太大、效率将持续改善。需要关注的风险包括 原材料价格波动及海外政策节奏（如俄罗斯报废税返还确认时点差）。 风险变量方面关注三点 其一，大宗与锂价波动对行业成本的压力仍在，但长城提出2026年直材年化降本目标约5%，并将透过 平台化、规模效应与多维降本对冲原材料上行。其二，俄罗斯"报废税/返还"节奏会带来季度间扰动， 管理层称4Q25收到的是3Q25及以前的综合结算、4Q25当期尚未收到。其三，直营渠道仍处效率爬坡 期，管理层预期2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，长城汽车(02333,601633.SH)公布2025年初步业绩，收入同比增长 10%，但净利润同比下降22%。年终奖金拨备或影响第四季净利润约30亿元人民币，若剔除延迟的俄罗 斯报废车税退税影响，该行估计第四季单车利润可按季上升约2,000元至10,500元。展望2026年，该行预 计长城国内销售将受内需减弱影响，而俄罗斯市场的影响可能持续。因此下调长城汽车2026年及2027年 净利润预测分别为19%及3%，并下调目标市盈率倍数，将H股目标价由21港元下调至15港元，A股目标 价则由36元下调至24元。然而，该行维持"跑赢大市"评级，因预期长城在行业波动中仍将保持韧性。 ...

Event Overview - The company reported its 2025 annual performance, achieving total revenue of 222.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.91 billion yuan, down 21.71% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.16 billion yuan, down 36.48% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 1.16 yuan, down 22.15% year-on-year. As of the end of 2025, total assets were 225.59 billion yuan, up 3.62% year-on-year, and equity attributable to shareholders was 87.93 billion yuan, up 11.32% year-on-year. The total vehicle sales reached 1.32 million units, up 7.33% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales at 403,700 units, up 25.44% year-on-year, and overseas sales at 506,000 units, up 11.68% year-on-year, accounting for over 38% of total sales [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue grew steadily, with a 10.19% year-on-year increase, benefiting from sales growth and product structure upgrades. The average revenue per vehicle reached 168,300 yuan, an increase of approximately 4,400 yuan year-on-year, setting a new historical high. However, net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 21.71% and 36.48% respectively, primarily due to increased strategic investments in new user channels, new model launches, and brand enhancement, which pressured short-term profits. The total liabilities decreased by 0.76% year-on-year, while equity attributable to shareholders increased by 11.32%, indicating a stable financial condition [3]. Sales and Market Performance - Vehicle sales increased by 7.33% year-on-year, with a well-structured product matrix. The Haval and Ora brands focused on the mainstream price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, while the Tank and Wey brands targeted the mid-to-high-end market, with Tank models above 300,000 yuan accounting for 38.5% of sales. The new energy business became a core growth engine, with global sales up 25.44% and domestic penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 51.5%. The overseas market also saw significant growth of 11.68%, with over 57,000 units sold in December alone. The company is enhancing its global presence with the launch of its Brazil factory and localizing ethanol hybrid models, while the Tank 700 has established a high-value image in the Middle East, with plans to expand into the South American market [4]. Technological Innovation - The company has a strong technological foundation, with its hybrid four-wheel drive intelligent off-road technology awarded a prestigious industry prize. The Super Intelligent HEV is pushing hybrid technology into a new era, achieving a maximum fuel consumption reduction of 14.4%. The world's first native AI all-power platform has been implemented, accommodating various power forms, and high-level intelligent driving will be extended to more models and overseas adaptations. The company emphasizes "testing cars through competitions" to enhance production vehicle quality, laying a solid foundation for long-term high-quality growth [5]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 226.78 billion yuan, 289.80 billion yuan, and 318.78 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 12.67 billion yuan, 17.52 billion yuan, and 19.40 billion yuan for the same period. The corresponding earnings per share are projected to be 1.48 yuan, 2.05 yuan, and 2.27 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 10, and 9 respectively [6][7].