Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: High Prosperity Industry Rotation Strategy (S1) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select industries with upward profit expectations by tracking industry profitability using a multi-factor model based on analysts' consensus expectations[16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct three major types of factors based on the original value, slope, and curvature of profit expectations - Screen candidate factors with annualized excess return >3% - Use hierarchical clustering to classify candidate factors into 8 categories and select the highest excess return factor from each category for rank equal-weighted composite - Exclude overvalued industries and select the top 3 industries with the highest factor values weekly[16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures industries with high profitability expectations[16] Model 2: Implicit Sentiment Momentum Tracking Strategy (S2) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy constructs a sentiment momentum model that runs ahead of earnings expectation data by capturing "unproven sentiment" in the market[19] - **Model Construction Process**: - Perform cross-sectional regression of industry daily returns on daily turnover rate changes to strip out "expected sentiment" - Calculate the residual as "unproven sentiment" - Construct half-month and 12-month momentum factors based on cumulative unproven sentiment factor net value - Rank and equal-weight composite the two momentum factors - Exclude overvalued industries and select the top 3 industries with the highest factor values weekly[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures market sentiment ahead of earnings expectation data[19] Model 3: Macro Style Rotation Strategy (S3) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy predicts the long-short situation of four industry styles (high beta, high valuation, 12-month momentum, high volatility) based on current macro indicators and their correlation with the returns of these styles[22] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct a fundamental indicator system from "economic growth," "inflation," "currency," "credit," and "market sentiment" - Calculate the exposure of each industry to the four styles and estimate the expected long-short returns of the style factors - Use a weak voting classifier to predict the long-short of the styles - Map the style predictions to industries and select the top 6 industries with the highest total scores monthly[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively integrates macro indicators with industry style predictions[22] Model 4: Long-term Reversal Strategy (S4) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy leverages the momentum effect within 2 years and the reversal effect beyond 3 years in industries[27] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct a "1-year momentum" factor excluding the most recent month's returns - Construct a "3-year reversal" factor using the period from 3 years ago to 2 years ago - Construct a turnover factor using the turnover rate of free float market value - Rank and equal-weight composite the three factors - Select the top 5 industries with the highest factor values monthly[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures long-term reversal and medium-term momentum effects in industries[27] Model 5: Fund Flow Industry Rotation Strategy (S5) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy constructs an industry rotation model based on "market main fund flow and strength" and "late trading fund flow and strength"[29] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct an "institutional order trend strength factor" using the net buy amount of institutional orders - Construct a "late trading fund flow and strength factor" using the average daily inflow of late trading funds - Rank and equal-weight composite the two factors - Select the top 5 industries with the highest fund inflow strength monthly[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the flow and strength of market funds[29] Model 6: Financial Report Factor Failure Reversal Strategy (S6) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy leverages the phenomenon of financial report factors performing poorly in recent years to construct an industry rotation model based on the mean reversion theory of factor effectiveness[34] - **Model Construction Process**: - Classify financial report factors into categories and screen for "long-term effective factors" with annualized excess return >5.5% - Identify "short-term failure factors" that underperform the industry equal-weight benchmark for 4 consecutive months - Composite the highest annualized excess return factors from each category - Select the top 5 industries with the highest factor values monthly[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the mean reversion of financial report factors[34] Model 7: Multi-factor Scoring Composite Strategy (S7) - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is a quarterly rebalancing strategy that composites factors from "momentum," "liquidity," "valuation," and "quality" dimensions[39] - **Model Construction Process**: - Exclude industries with a weight below 2% in the CSI 800 - Select 2 factors from each dimension and rank equal-weight composite - Select the top 5 industries with the highest factor values quarterly[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively integrates multiple factor dimensions[39] Model Backtest Results - **S1**: Annualized excess return -1.8% YTD[66] - **S2**: Annualized excess return 5.6% YTD[66] - **S3**: Annualized excess return 2.7% YTD[66] - **S4**: Annualized excess return 4.8% YTD[66] - **S5**: Annualized excess return -0.2% YTD[66] - **S6**: Annualized excess return 0.6% YTD[66] - **S7**: Annualized excess return 3.9% YTD[66] - **Composite Strategy**: Annualized excess return 2.0% YTD[66]

Group 1: Policy Signals and Market Reactions - The recent signals regarding the orderly exit of backward production capacity emerged before the July 1 meeting of the Central Financial Committee, with some product prices stabilizing in June[3] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a shift from industry self-discipline to top-level policy[3] - Despite the policy signals, related industry stock performances remained subdued until the July 1 meeting, indicating a delayed market reaction[21] Group 2: Market Characteristics and Trends - The current market is expected to exhibit "pulse-like" trends due to unclear demand-side signals, contrasting with the 2016 supply-side reform that saw simultaneous demand boosts[22] - The segmentation of industries will likely show significant differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries)[22] - Focus should be on new industries with external demand, which may offer higher profit elasticity under similar supply-side adjustments[22] Group 3: Economic Implications and Risks - The stabilization of related industries will significantly aid macroeconomic structural adjustments and improve price factors, contributing to the overall elevation of the A-share market[23] - Risks include the potential underperformance of the orderly exit of backward production capacity, unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations, and unforeseen tariff disputes[28]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of top investment advisors in the A-share market, with significant excess returns compared to the market average, showcasing their capabilities in a volatile market environment [1][3]. Performance Overview - The average return of the top 300 advisors in the stock trading group reached 27.19%, while the top 10 advisors achieved an impressive average return of 47.41% [2][3]. - In June, the three major indices in the A-share market all showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.23%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.02% [3]. ETF Group Performance - The average return for the top 200 advisors in the ETF group was 17.34%, with the top 10 achieving an average return of 30.93% [10][11]. - Compared to the benchmark indices, the top advisors significantly outperformed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.71% during the same period [11]. Advisor Strategies - Advisors from leading firms like Guangfa Securities and CITIC Securities shared their strategies, focusing on growth stocks and utilizing models like "5+30" to identify high-potential sectors [13][14]. - Risk management strategies were emphasized, including controlling drawdowns and diversifying portfolios to mitigate risks during market fluctuations [15][20]. Institutional Strength - Guangfa Securities, CITIC Securities, and China Galaxy Securities led the rankings in terms of the number of advisors participating in the evaluation, indicating their strong institutional capabilities [23][28]. - The competition among institutions reflects a shift towards a client-centric approach in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of professional capabilities [39]. Future Outlook - Advisors are focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and aerospace, while also considering macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies [17][22]. - The article suggests that as market volatility becomes the norm, the ability of professional advisors to create value will be crucial for their competitive edge [39].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that risk assets are expected to maintain relative advantages, with the profitability factor likely to recover [2][4][10] - The asset allocation model is an improved version of the Black-Litterman (BL) model, which combines market consensus with active views to optimize asset allocation and enhance the Sharpe ratio [3][5] - The model predicts that in the third quarter of 2025, the allocation ratio for domestic stocks will continue to increase while the bond allocation ratio will remain relatively high [10][11] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the profitability factor is expected to recover, and the advantage of small-cap stocks is likely to continue [2][17] - As of June 30, 2025, the market style performance for the second quarter showed strong results for small-cap and low-valuation factors, with weak profitability and weak reversal [13][16] - The report recommends focusing on indices such as the ChiNext Index, CSI A500, and CSI 2000, which exhibit high profitability and small-cap attributes [20][21]

Core Insights - Nearly 90% of brokerage gold stock portfolios achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, with Northeast Securities leading at a 45.45% return [2][6] - The July gold stock list shows a strong representation from the electronics, pharmaceutical, and machinery sectors, with significant contributions from power equipment and non-bank financials [3][9] - Brokerages are optimistic about the market's potential to break through previous highs, particularly focusing on sectors like technology and brokerage firms for investment [4][12] Performance Summary - In June, the top-performing gold stock was Giant Network (002558.SZ) with a 63.09% monthly increase, driven by strong data from its new game [5] - Other notable performers included Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) with a 55.39% increase and Inner Mongolia First Machinery (600967.SH) with a 54.80% increase [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.76% in the first half of the year, while the North Star 50 Index surged nearly 40% [6] Brokerage Rankings - Northeast Securities topped the gold stock portfolio rankings with a 45.45% return, followed by Dongxing Securities at 37% and Huaxi Securities at 29.25% [6] - Five brokerages reported negative returns for their gold stock portfolios, including Changcheng Securities and Zhongyin Securities [7] Sector Focus - The latest gold stock recommendations highlight a concentration in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with multiple brokerages recommending stocks like Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Zhongxin Securities (600030.SH) [9][10] - Other stocks receiving multiple recommendations include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), noted for its low costs and profitability in the slaughtering business [11] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to show resilience in July, with potential breakthroughs depending on structural policy and market conditions [14][15] - The consensus among brokerages is that the Shanghai Composite Index has a significant chance of surpassing last year's highs, with a focus on technology and brokerage sectors for investment opportunities [12][15]

Group 1 - Two financial institutions, Zhongyin International Securities and Huabao Fund, announced executive changes on June 28, raising industry concerns about personnel shifts [2][4] - Zhao Qingwei, the Asset Management Director of Zhongyin International Securities, resigned for personal reasons, effective immediately upon board receipt of his resignation [4][5] - The company expressed gratitude for Zhao's contributions during his tenure, despite the ongoing decline in the asset management business he oversaw [4][5] Group 2 - The departure of Zhao Qingwei follows the resignation of Chairman Ning Min just four days earlier, indicating a significant leadership transition at Zhongyin International Securities [4][5] - Under Ning Min's leadership, the company's total assets grew from 37.11 billion to 74.91 billion, and net assets doubled from 7.99 billion to 17.99 billion from 2014 to 2024 [5] - In contrast, the asset management business, which Zhao led, saw a decline in revenue from 766 million in 2022 to 530 million in 2023, and further to 507 million in 2024, with a revenue share dropping from 25.9% to 17.58% [5][6] Group 3 - Huabao Fund also announced the resignation of Deputy General Manager Lü Xiaoran on the same day, citing work relocation as the reason for his departure [7][9] - Lü Xiaoran's tenure was notably short, lasting only 5 months and 19 days, which is rare in the history of Huabao Fund's executive positions [11][12] - The fund's asset management scale has remained stagnant between 300 billion and 370 billion, with a drop in industry ranking from 23rd to 31st as of the first quarter of 2025 [13][16] Group 4 - The simultaneous executive changes at both companies reflect broader challenges in the financial industry, including tightening regulations, restructuring of business models, and intensified market competition [16] - These shifts are indicative of the industry's search for new directions and high-quality development amidst significant transformation [16]

证券代码：601696 证券简称：中银证券 公告编号：2025-021 中银国际证券股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 6 月 27 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：上海市浦东新区松林路 357 号上海尊茂酒店四楼 VIP3 会议室 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： 份总数的比例（%） 51.4477 (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 本次会议由公司董事会召集，采取现场投票表决与网络投票表决相结合的方式进 行。本次会议由公司代职董事长周冰先生主持，会议的召集、召开及表决方式符 合《公司法》等法律、法规及《公司章程》相关规定。 (五)公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 二、 议案审议情况 (一)非累积投票议案 审议结果：通过 表决情况： | | 同意 | | 反对 | | | 弃权 | | | --- | --- | ...

证券代码：601696 证券简称：中银证券 公告编号：2025-022 中银国际证券股份有限公司 关于高级管理人员离任的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中银国际证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会近日收到赵青伟先 生递交的辞呈。赵青伟先生因个人原因申请辞去公司资管总监职务，辞任后将不 在公司担任任何职务。 | 一、提前离任的基本情况 | | --- | | 姓名 | 离任职务 | 离任时间 | | 原定任期 到期日 | 离任原因 | 是否继续在上 市公司及其控 | 是否存在 未履行完 毕的公开 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 股子公司任职 | | | | | | | | | | 承诺 | | 赵青伟 | 资管总监 | 年 2025 6 | | 第二届董事 | 个人原因 | 否 | 否 | | | | 月 27 | 日 | 会届满之日 | | | | 二、离任对公司的影响 赵青伟先生将按照公司相关规定做 ...

北京市中伦（上海）律师事务所 关于中银国际证券股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会的 法律意见书 致：中银国际证券股份有限公司 北京市中伦（上海）律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）作为中银国际证券股 份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的常年法律顾问，受公司委托，指派律师出席 公司 2024 年年度股东大会（以下简称"本次股东大会"）。本所律师根据《中华 人民共和国公司法》（以下简称《公司法》）等相关法律、法规、规范性文件及《中 银国际证券股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）、《中银国际证券股份有 限公司股东大会议事规则》（以下简称《股东大会规则》）的规定，通过现场方式 对本次股东大会进行见证并出具法律意见。 本所及经办律师依据《证券法》《律师事务所从事证券法律业务管理办法》 和《律师事务所证券法律业务执业规则》等规定及本法律意见书出具日以前已经 发生或者存在的事实，严格履行了法定职责，遵循了勤勉尽责和诚实信用原则， 进行了充分的核查验证，保证本法律意见所认定的事实真实、准确、完整，所发 表的结论性意见合法、准确，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并承 担相应法律责任。 为出具本法律意见书，本所律师审查了 ...

证券代码：601696 证券简称：中银证券 公告编号：2025-021 中银国际证券股份有限公司 2024年年度股东大会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 本次会议由公司董事会召集，采取现场投票表决与网络投票表决相结合的方式进 行。本次会议由公司代职董事长周冰先生主持，会议的召集、召开及表决方式符 合《公司法》等法律、法规及《公司章程》相关规定。 (五)公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 1、公司在任董事12人，出席12人； 二、 议案审议情况 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 6 月 27 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：上海市浦东新区松林路 357 号上海尊茂酒店四楼 VIP3 会议室 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： | 1、出席会议的股东和代理人人数 | 421 | | --- | --- | | 2、出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数（股） | 1,429,217,772 | | 3 ...