Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is entering a downward cycle due to high costs and weak supply-demand dynamics, despite maintaining high capital expenditure and supply growth since the peak in 2021. However, there are "long-termist" companies capable of navigating through the cycle, providing substantial returns to investors through growth and dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced high capital expenditure and significant supply growth since the peak in 2021, but demand recovery remains relatively weak, leading to a high-cost and weak supply-demand environment [1]. - Long-termist companies in the chemical sector are characterized by strong shareholder backgrounds, excellent management capabilities, reasonable industry chain layouts, continuous R&D investment, and a strong sense of social responsibility, enabling them to achieve stable growth and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Sector - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditure and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [3]. - The domestic oil service companies are benefiting from high upstream capital expenditure, with improved operational quality and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]. Group 3: Refining and Chemical Fiber Industry - The refining and chemical fiber industry is anticipated to recover, with the refining expansion nearing completion and supply-demand dynamics expected to improve, leading to high-quality development in the sector [4]. - The polyester sector is seeing limited new capacity, with structural optimization accelerating, which is expected to enhance the market share and competitiveness of leading companies [4]. Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to a gradual easing of coal supply and demand, alongside a decline in coal prices. The transition towards modern coal chemical processes is seen as essential for traditional coal enterprises [5]. - The average prices for various coal types have decreased, with main coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite prices showing declines of -10.5%, -2.0%, and -16.0% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the upstream oil and gas sector and oil service companies, including China National Petroleum (601857.SH), Sinopec (600028.SH), CNOOC (600938.SH), and others [6]. - For the refining and chemical fiber sector, companies like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) are recommended due to their potential benefits from industry optimization and upgrades [7]. - In the coal chemical sector, companies such as Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) are highlighted for their expected improvement in profitability [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring cyclical leading companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) as demand recovers and supply-demand dynamics improve [7].

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国石油股份(00857)2025年前九个月净利润同比下降5%，至 1,263亿元人民币;第三季度录得423亿元人民币，同比下降4%，但按季上升14%，优于该行的预测。瑞 银上调中石油目标价，从9.3港元升至10.3港元。鉴于2025年第三季度业绩优于预期，小幅上调中石油 2025年预测盈利2%，评级"买入"。 长期而言，瑞银预期中石油2026至2028年油价分别为每桶64美元、70美元及75美元，逐步趋稳并反弹; 国内天然气价格可能较海外价格更稳定，因国内天然气需求仍处增长状态;中石油下游炼油及化工细分 市场可受益于反内卷政策。 展望2025年第四季度，瑞银预期，布伦特原油价格平均为63美元/桶;因国内天然气需求进入旺季，预期 天然气价格及销量均可上升。瑞银又认为，炼油及化工基本面可能面临一些压力;并建议关注年底时的 资产减值情况。 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_A 刘红光 uthor 石化行业联席首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [油价Table_T 中枢下移 itle] ，油气龙头全产业链抗风险能力突出 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件： ummary] 2025 年 10 月 30 日晚，中国石油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度公司实现营业收入 21,692.56 亿元，同比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit for Q3, amounting to 8.3 billion RMB, which is 26% lower than the expectations of the research firm [1] Financial Performance - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to lower-than-expected profits from refining and sales operations [1] - The firm estimates a further 22% decline in Q4 earnings due to anticipated decreases in oil prices impacting exploration, refining, and sales profits [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised downwards by 12% to 14% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been reduced from 4.78 HKD to 4.21 HKD, while the target price for A-shares has been lowered from 6.46 RMB to 5.54 RMB [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，中国石油化工股份(00386,600028.SH)第三季净利润按季跌 15%至83亿元人民币，较该行预期低26%，主要因炼油与销售业务利润低于预期。该行估算第四季盈利 将按季跌22%，因预期油价下跌将对勘探开采、炼油，甚至销售业务的利润产生负面影响;将2025至27 年盈利预测下调12%至14%。重申"持有"评级，H股目标价由原先4.78港元降至4.21港元，A股目标价由 原先6.46元人民币降至5.54元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's performance in Q3 2025 is expected to remain weak, with no signs of improvement in downstream operations, and potential increase in impairment losses compared to the same period last year [1] Summary by Category Financial Performance - Sinopec's Q3 2025 results are projected to be mediocre, reflecting ongoing challenges in the downstream sector [1] - Management has indicated a cautious outlook during the earnings call, suggesting that impairment losses may rise as the year-end approaches [1] Target Price Adjustments - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target prices for Sinopec's H-shares and A-shares to HKD 4.4 and CNY 6, respectively, from previous targets of HKD 4.5 and CNY 6.3, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Competitive Positioning - Among China's three major oil companies, Sinopec is ranked third in preference, with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) being the top choice, followed by CNOOC [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's performance in Q3 2025 is expected to remain weak, with no signs of improvement in downstream operations, and potential increase in impairment losses compared to the same period last year [1] Company Summary - Sinopec's H-share and A-share target prices have been lowered to HKD 4.4 and RMB 6, respectively, from HKD 4.5 and RMB 6.3, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] - Among China's three major oil companies, Sinopec is ranked third in preference, with PetroChina as the top choice and CNOOC as the second [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the oil and petrochemical industry in China is currently experiencing a prolonged downturn due to "involution" competition, but there is potential for a turnaround through policy measures aimed at high-quality transformation and capacity exit [1][2][3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry faced significant challenges, including overcapacity in low-end products and insufficient high-end offerings, leading to a situation where production increases did not translate into profit growth [17][22] - The report forecasts that oil prices will have a strong bottom support, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $60-65 per barrel by 2026, driven by steady demand growth and OPEC+ production adjustments [1][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the refining sector is undergoing significant changes, with leading companies expected to benefit from the exit of outdated capacities and improved profitability due to stricter tax regulations and effective price guidance [2][3] - In the PTA industry, the report notes that the market is highly concentrated, and self-regulation may lead to spontaneous production cuts, which could improve the overall supply-demand balance [3][4] - The trend towards lightweight materials and the substitution of plastics for steel is expected to drive growth in the modified plastics sector, with companies focusing on high-value specialty engineering plastics [4][3]

新华财经北京10月31日电（记者安娜）记者31日从中国石油集团获悉，10月30日，国家石化产业规划布 局重大项目——中国石油广西石化乙烯工程在广西钦州港一次投产成功，首批固体化工产品合格并发 运。这一总投资超300亿元的工程投产，标志着我国西南地区最大的百万吨级乙烯工程建成，为"十四 五"收官与"十五五"谋划衔接注入产业动能。 站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋划的历史交汇点，中国石油广西石化公司表示，将以此次投产为起点， 聚焦市场需求、管理提升和技术攻关，全力释放化工品产能，在保障国家能源安全、建设现代化产业体 系中履行央企担当。 （文章来源：新华财经） 投产后，工程每年可减少油品349万吨、增产化工品306万吨，官能化橡胶、高端膜料等产品填补国内供 给缺口。新增用电实现100%绿电保障，能耗指标优于国家标准标杆水平，构建起绿色循环链条，助 力"双碳"目标推进。 依托西部陆海新通道，产品可辐射西南、华南及东盟市场，推动广西从基础化工向高端化工新材料转 型，助力打造面向东盟的万亿级产业集群。通过带动包装、建材等下游产业发展，形成"龙头带动、集 群发展"生态，破解西南高端化工原料"供应洼地"困境，借助RCEP红利 ...

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