21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 上海报道 近期，已担任浙商证券固收首席的覃汉的"故意不翻空"言论出圈，引发监管关注并介入调查。 去年12月17日，2025年新财富最佳分析师评选结果出炉，覃汉带领的团队斩获固收研究第五名，创下其个人职业生涯最佳成绩。但他 本人却在朋友圈表达不满，"原以为能进前三，结果只拿到第五，我今天真的哭了。" 更具争议的是，覃汉直言，"早知道是这个结果，我三季度就该翻空，当初是为了拉票才故意没这么做。"所谓"翻空"，是指分析师将 对债市的观点由看多转向看空，做出债券价格大概率下跌、收益率或将上行的研究判断。 接近浙商证券的人士向记者透露，"监管对此事高度重视，甚至动用了经侦手段，要求浙商董办、研究所等部门配合提供材料。前段 时间，浙商证券上上下下都在为这件事忙碌，调查结果估计还要等一段时间才能出来。" "覃汉目前已经暂停路演活动，也不再发表署名研报。他在2026年市场预测相关活动中的露面，也只是代表固收团队阐述观点。"上述 人士表示。 此外，覃汉的言论也在债券熊市氛围中引发众怒，不少买方机构的情绪难以平息。记者从相关渠道获悉，监管部门近日正针对此事向 买方机构展开调查，其间收到不少机构投资者 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 上海报道 近期，已担任浙商证券固收首席的覃汉的"故意不翻空"言论出圈，引发监管关注并介入调查。 去年12月17日，2025年新财富最佳分析师评选结果出炉，覃汉带领的团队斩获固收研究第五名，创下其 个人职业生涯最佳成绩。但他本人却在朋友圈表达不满，"原以为能进前三，结果只拿到第五，我今天 真的哭了。" 更具争议的是，覃汉直言，"早知道是这个结果，我三季度就该翻空，当初是为了拉票才故意没这么 做。"所谓"翻空"，是指分析师将对债市的观点由看多转向看空，做出债券价格大概率下跌、收益率或 将上行的研究判断。 一石激起千层浪，覃汉此番表态很快在业内掀起轩然大波。 21世纪经济报道记者最新获悉，浙江证监局目前正就此事开展调查，浙江省金融监管部门亦对该事件高 度关注。浙商证券研究所也已启动内部核查程序，并已暂停覃汉对外展业1个月，责令其进行深刻内部 检查，并依据内部规章制度对其处以相应经济处罚。 接近浙商证券的人士向记者透露，"监管对此事高度重视，甚至动用了经侦手段，要求浙商董办、研究 所等部门配合提供材料。前段时间，浙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic film market in 2025 saw a significant recovery, with total box office revenue reaching 51.832 billion and total audience attendance at 1.238 billion, both showing over 20% growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Box Office Performance - The 2025 box office performance was driven by strong showings during key holiday periods, particularly the Spring Festival and summer seasons, which contributed the majority of the growth [2]. - The Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.69%, largely due to the success of "Nezha 2" [2]. - The summer box office totaled 11.966 billion, reflecting a 2.77% increase from the previous year [2]. Market Structure and Trends - The top 10 films in 2025 included 4 films that grossed over 3 billion and 8 films that surpassed 1 billion, indicating a concentration of box office revenue among a few major titles [3]. - The share of domestic films in total box office revenue was slightly higher than the previous year, but the number of mid-tier films (1-5 billion and 5-10 billion) saw a significant decline, indicating a "winner-takes-all" trend, especially in the animation sector [3]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the overall underperformance of the film industry compared to the market, there are short-term investment opportunities during strong holiday periods [4]. - The film industry index rose by 16.13% in 2025, which was lower than the media index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 27.17% and 17.66%, respectively [4]. Future Outlook - The film market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, with projected box office revenue reaching 53.1 billion, supported by a strong lineup of films during key periods [6]. - The recovery of box office revenue is anticipated to positively impact non-box office income, such as merchandise and advertising revenue, as consumer spending on cultural entertainment increases [6].

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，太空数据中心行业已从技术验证迈入以Starcloud-1、中国"三 体计算星座"为代表的商业化星座部署阶段。据测算，2027年一期算力星座建成后，可直接带动产业链 产值超数十亿元，长期看规模有望超万亿元。未来五年内，主要星座计划将陆续进行卫星发射。该行建 议关注辐射散热系统、太空光伏能源系统、抗辐射芯片/服务器封装、及星间激光通信四大细分赛道。 2、太空环境推动基础设施全链重构 依据主要星座的发射规划及历史发射数据，该行进行测算：假设SpaceX及国内单次发射平均载荷为 28、10颗卫星;预计未来年均火箭发射次数有望达约940次。ITU要求申请了频率和轨位以后，7年内必须 发射第一颗星、9年内必须发射总数达到10%、12年内发射总数需要达到50%、14年内整个星座必须完 成发射，目前国内部署规模最大的星座组网GW和G60均处于起步阶段。 5、"猎鹰"和"长征"系列火箭推动全球航天发射活动持续增长 "猎鹰"火箭的发射次数从2014年的6次增长到2024年的134次;"长征"系列火箭发射次数也从2014年的15 次上升到2024年的49次。2024年中国商业航天实现全年33 ...

中国市场：25Q4实现包裹量58.9亿件，日均6400万件，符合预期；10月以来中国快递行业包裹量增速有 所放缓，10月增速下降至双位数以下，行业向高质量发展方向转变。 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，考虑公司在东南亚市 场继续保持竞争优势，随着件量增长，新市场规模优势显现以及中国市场持续拓展与各电商平台的合 作。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 25Q4公司总体实现包裹量84.6亿件，同比增长14.5%，日均包裹量9200万件 东南亚市场：25Q4极兔实现包裹量24.4亿件，同比增73.6%，日均件量2650万件，同比+73.6%，公司在 东南亚业务量表现持续强劲，主要由于电商传统旺季及东南亚整体线上渗透率持续提升，极兔凭借稳健 的业务策略不断提升竞争有优势，当地行业份额持续向龙头集中。 新市场(包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、巴西及埃及)：25Q4极兔继续维持了自上个季度以来的强劲 增速，2025年第四季度实现包裹量破亿，达1.3亿件，同比升79.7%，日均包裹量145万件，同比 +79.7%。主要由于公司积极把握电商增长红利拓展与TikTok、Mercado ...

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Jitu Express-W (01519), citing its competitive advantage in the Southeast Asian market, growth in package volume, emerging market scale advantages, and ongoing collaborations with various e-commerce platforms in China [1] Group 1: Package Volume Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total package volume of 8.46 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with an average daily volume of 92 million pieces [2] - In Southeast Asia, Jitu achieved a package volume of 2.44 billion pieces in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 73.6%, with a daily average of 26.5 million pieces [2] - The new markets (including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt) saw a package volume of 130 million pieces in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with a daily average of 1.45 million pieces [2] - In China, the package volume reached 5.89 billion pieces in Q4 2025, with a daily average of 64 million pieces, aligning with expectations [2] Group 2: Annual Performance Overview - For the full year of 2025, the total package volume surpassed 30 billion pieces, reaching 30.13 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with an average daily volume of 82.5 million pieces [2] - In Southeast Asia, the annual package volume was 7.66 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with a daily average of 21 million pieces [2] - The new markets achieved an annual package volume of 400 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, with a daily average of 1.1 million pieces [3] - In China, the annual package volume was 22.07 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with a daily average of 60.5 million pieces [3] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - The company announced plans to acquire approximately 36.99% of Jet Global for $950 million, aiming for full ownership, and to acquire approximately 46.55% of JNTExpress KSA for $106 million, achieving full control of the Saudi entity [4] - Jet Global, covering markets like Brazil, Egypt, and Mexico, is expected to significantly reduce its pre-tax losses in 2024 compared to 2023, with total assets of $640 million and net liabilities of $590 million [4] - JNTExpress KSA is also projected to improve its pre-tax losses in 2024 compared to 2023, with total assets of $8.6 million and net assets of $3.7 million [4] - These acquisitions are part of the company's strategy to enhance control over key emerging markets and improve operational efficiency [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Monte Carlo Backtesting **Model Construction Idea**: Shift from historical path fitting to future robustness testing by generating multiple random paths to evaluate strategy performance across diverse scenarios [1][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate thousands of random price paths that follow historical statistical characteristics (e.g., return distribution, volatility, correlation) but differ from the original historical path [10] 2. Perform stress tests on strategies across these simulated paths to observe performance under various market conditions [10] 3. Calculate risk metrics such as Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and value-at-risk (VaR) based on the distribution of strategy returns [10] **Model Evaluation**: Effectively reduces overfitting to specific historical paths and provides a more comprehensive robustness assessment [10][46] - **Model Name**: Non-Parametric Monte Carlo Simulation **Model Construction Idea**: Use historical data directly without assuming any parametric distribution, preserving cross-sectional correlation [2][13] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Method 1**: Multi-Asset Time-Series Return Joint Rearrangement - Extract daily returns of all assets as a "data block" - Randomly sample and sequentially concatenate these blocks to form simulated paths [18] 2. **Method 2**: Multi-Asset Time-Series Return Block Bootstrap - Divide historical returns into fixed-length overlapping/non-overlapping blocks - Randomly sample blocks and concatenate them to form simulated paths [19] **Model Evaluation**: Preserves cross-sectional correlation but disrupts time-series structures like volatility clustering and autocorrelation [14][20] - **Model Name**: Residual Bootstrap (Factor Model-Based) **Model Construction Idea**: Separate systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk using factor models, then randomize residuals for simulation [2][23] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct risk factors (e.g., market, size, value, momentum) and calculate historical daily returns [23] 2. Perform cross-sectional regression to estimate factor exposures (β) and extract residual returns [23] 3. Randomly shuffle residuals while preserving cross-sectional correlation [23] 4. Reconstruct paths using historical factor returns and randomized residuals [23] **Model Evaluation**: Useful for analyzing alpha and risk exposure but limited by the explanatory power of the factor model [24][25] - **Model Name**: Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Simulation **Model Construction Idea**: Assume asset returns follow a normal distribution and simulate paths using drift and volatility parameters [2][28] **Model Construction Process**: $$d S_{i}(t)=\mu_{i}S_{i}(t)d t+\sigma_{i}S_{i}(t)d W_{i}(t),i=1,\ldots,n$$ - \( \mu_{i} \): Drift rate (expected return) - \( \sigma_{i} \): Volatility - \( W_{i}(t) \): Standard Brownian motion Discretized path: $$S_{i}^{(j)}(t_{k})=X_{i}(0)\,e x p[(\,k\Delta t+\sum_{l=1}^{k}\sum_{p=1}^{n}L_{i p}Z_{l,p}^{(j)}\,]$$ - \( L \): Cholesky decomposition of covariance matrix - \( Z_{l,p}^{(j)} \): Independent standard normal random variables [28] **Model Evaluation**: Accurately replicates volatility and correlation but fails to capture tail risks and price jumps [28][47] Model Backtesting Results - **Monte Carlo Backtesting**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window, GBM method) [45][46] - **Non-Parametric Monte Carlo Simulation**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.22 (15-day window, joint rearrangement method) [45][46] - **Residual Bootstrap**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window) [45][46] - **Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window) [45][46] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Momentum and Volatility Dual Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine momentum and volatility factors using Z-score normalization and equal weighting [35] **Factor Construction Process**: $$S c o r e_{i}=0.5*Z S c o r e_{i,m o m}+0.5*Z S c o r e_{i,v o l}$$ - Momentum and volatility calculated over different window lengths (N ∈ [15, 20, 40]) [35] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a balanced scoring mechanism for style rotation strategies [35][37] Factor Backtesting Results - **Momentum and Volatility Dual Factor**: - Historical price path cumulative return: 535% (25-day window) - Simulated path cumulative return: 62.25% (15-day window, GBM method) [38][42]

浙商证券研报指出，涛涛车业25年业绩中枢同比预增91%超预期，北美休闲车龙头强者恒强。通过孙公 司以1500万美元收购ChampionMotorsportsGroupHoldings,LLC.100%股权自有品牌矩阵、渠道优势有望整 合：标的公司拥有Walmart等数十家稳定客户、2000多家商超门店及线上渠道，有望与公司现有资源形 成协同。另外，公司拟首次公开发行H股股票并在香港联交所主板上市，以推动公司全球化战略布局、 提升国际品牌影响力、增强境外融资能力、打造国际化资本运作平台、提高综合竞争力。供给端，预计 北美电动低速车行业库存持续下降，公司进一步提升市场份额，北美生产效率比肩公司国内水平，目前 积极筹备第二条生产线。已建立14万平米北美本土仓储制造基地；本地化人才团队近400人，覆盖研发 到售后全链条。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the progress of Bertelli's L3 and the imminent mass production of EMB, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the humanoid robot business [1] - The company has secured multiple clients for its EMB solutions, including a major domestic automotive enterprise, which will provide a complete EMB solution for its entire range of pure electric mid-to-large luxury sedans by October 31, 2025 [1] - The EMB production line has been completed and is expected to deliver small batches by the end of 2025, with full-scale production commencing in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2 - The company plans to initiate the development of robot screws and motors in 2026, with mass production anticipated by mid-2026 [1] - The research report maintains a "buy" rating for the company's stock, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and market position of Dazhu CNC Technology Co., Ltd., which saw a stock price increase of 5.87% to 131.15 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 55.806 billion CNY [1] - Dazhu CNC specializes in the research, production, and sales of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) equipment, with its main revenue sources being drilling equipment (71.02%), testing equipment (8.78%), and other categories [1] - The company is located in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and was established on April 22, 2002, with its stock listed on February 28, 2022 [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhejiang Merchants Securities Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Dazhu CNC, specifically the Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Transformation Growth Fund (000935), which holds 18,200 shares, accounting for 3.43% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has a total scale of 51.7885 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 3.37%, ranking 3481 out of 8823 in its category, while its one-year return is 60.21%, ranking 1282 out of 8083 [2]