证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 交易性择时每日一图版本更新说明 ——债市专题报告 核心观点 本报告在原有交易性择时体系基础上进行多资产扩展。自 9 月以来，交易性择时策略 在趋势阶段对利率下行行情形成了较高覆盖度，在回调与震荡时期则主动收敛暴露， 体现出右侧确认与趋势跟随框架下的稳健性。本次迭代进一步引入权益、黄金与商品 择时信号，实现多市场间的交叉验证，有望提升利率交易方向识别的有效性、降低择 时失真与回撤水平，并在复杂宏观环境下增强策略执行与风险管理能力。未来策略优 化将增强空头过滤功能，并加强复合信号在震荡阶段的稳定性。 ❑ 9 月以来交易性择时信号回顾 交易性择时模型在利率下行周期保持了对趋势行情的高敏感度，各类信号在关键 阶段呈现出较强一致性，并在多个交易窗口连续触发复合信号，在捕捉利率主升 段方面表现突出。近期随着利率企稳回调，模型信号明显收敛甚至短暂消失。该 现象并非策略失效，而是由于策略本身逻辑并不承担主动做空判断，而是基于右 侧确认选择降低暴露度，以避免震荡期的无效交易和频繁换手，更好地体现了策 略在复杂行情中的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hangyang Co., Ltd. is identified as a leading player in China's industrial gas sector, characterized by both cyclical and growth potential, with a promising outlook for performance recovery as the industry is at the cyclical bottom [1] Industry Summary - The gas industry is currently at a cyclical low, indicating potential for upward performance recovery in the future [1] - The company is accelerating its layout in the controllable nuclear fusion field, which is expected to open a second growth curve [1] Company Summary - In the event of macroeconomic recovery, the retail gas segment shows significant potential for performance elasticity [1] - Even without considering economic recovery, the company can maintain steady performance growth through pipeline gas (volume delivery) and equipment business (Xinjiang coal chemical and overseas demand) [1] - The total signed oxygen production capacity for 2024 is projected to reach 3.5 million Nm³/h, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase (300,000 Nm³/h), which supports steady growth in pipeline gas volume [1] - The potential performance elasticity from retail gas is expected to be substantial [1] - The company is also cultivating new growth points such as electronic special gases and aims to achieve integrated production and storage applications for neon, helium, krypton, and xenon, thereby expanding its growth space [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

12月2日，浙商证券宣布，浙商证券旗下国都证券（香港）有限公司、浙商国际金融控股有限公司，启 动捐赠总计200万港元善款至香港特区政府"大埔宏福苑援助基金"。该笔经费将用于支持受灾同胞的安 置及社区重建工作。 ...

每经AI快讯，居然智家发布公告称，2025年12月2日，居然智家接受浙商证券等投资者调研，公司董事 会秘书王建亮等人参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——股民发帖求主力拉涨停，次日竟成真！襄阳轴承涨停迷局背后：平台审核 漏洞与市场操纵疑云发酵 （记者 王晓波） ...

Core Insights - The film "Zootopia 2" has exceeded expectations with a cumulative box office of over 1.94 billion yuan within five days of its release, with a projected total box office of 4.25 billion yuan [1][2] - The film's strong performance is attributed to a high screening ratio of 76.8% during a weak release period, significantly higher than its predecessor and other competing films [2] - Upcoming films for the New Year and Spring Festival are expected to contribute positively to box office performance, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [1][6] Film Industry Performance - The film industry has shown signs of recovery, with a total box office of 44.465 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [5] - The Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.514 billion yuan in 2025, marking an 18.69% increase compared to the previous year [4] - The summer box office also saw a slight increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while the National Day box office experienced a decline of 12.83% due to a lack of innovative content [4] Future Outlook - The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival periods are expected to see a strong box office performance, with several high-potential films confirmed for release [6] - The industry is projected to reach a box office scale of 48.1 to 58 billion yuan in 2026, continuing the recovery trend [7] - Companies such as Wanda Film, Bona Film Group, and China Film are highlighted as having significant performance elasticity in the upcoming key periods [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities highlights Yinlun's leadership in automotive thermal management and its expansion into new growth areas such as data centers and robotics [1] Business Structure - The company's passenger vehicle segment is performing strongly, leading the market [1] - The digital energy business is experiencing rapid growth, while the commercial vehicle and non-road segments maintain stable contributions [1] - The robotics business is positioned for future benefits due to anticipated market expansion [1] Industry Position - As a veteran in domestic thermal management, the company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in the passenger car sector [1] - The commercial vehicle and non-road segments are likely to see industry recovery and breakthroughs with overseas clients [1] Future Growth Potential - The company is leveraging its extensive experience and technological reserves in its core business to expand into emerging fields such as AI liquid cooling and embodied intelligent robotics [1] - This strategic expansion is aimed at ensuring sustainable development in the future [1] Investment Rating - The company has been given a "Buy" rating based on its strong market position and growth prospects [1]

证券代码：601878 证券简称：浙商证券 公告编号：2025-071 浙商证券股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2025 年 12 月 02 日 （星期二） 至 12 月 08 日 （星 期一）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目 或通过公司邮箱 zszq@stocke.com.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上 对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 浙商证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2025 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入 地了解公司 2025 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 12 月 09 日 （星期二） 14:00-15:00 举行 2025 年第三季度业绩 说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，回顾2025年，煤炭供给前高后低，进口煤同比下降，需求仍 有韧性。查超产支撑下，煤价V型反转。展望2026年，国内经济维持平稳，需求增长可期，供给在限产 和保供之间平衡，煤炭价格中枢抬升。供需决定库存，库存决定价格，该行认为2026年库存介于2024- 2025年之间，动力煤均价800-850元/吨;考虑到焦煤下游钢铁用煤偏弱、供给端潜在增量，预计焦煤和动 力煤比价关系在2倍左右，对应焦煤均价1500-1700元/吨。若去库超预期，煤炭价格有望进一步抬升。 维持行业"看好"评级。 政策：限产兼顾保供，供需动态平衡 浙商证券主要观点如下： 消费先抑后扬。2025年1-10月，全国商品煤消费总量约42.4亿吨，同比增长0.1%，主因化工用煤增速 高、钢铁用煤韧性强。行业用煤分化。分行业看，化工用煤3.6亿吨(yoy10.9%)，钢铁用煤5.9亿吨 (yoy0.2%)，建材用煤4亿吨(yoy-4.9%)，电力用煤23.5亿吨(yoy-1.1%)。 价格：煤价V型反转，长协整体平稳 煤价V型反转。动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤年初价格分别为767、1520、980元/吨，年内最低分别跌 ...

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 他提醒投资者，A股市场还有非常大的上涨机遇，2026 年外部事件冲击不会缺席，仓位应在"科技/红 利"之间做动态再平衡，而非单边押注。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 李超提出"四层次"框架：中美博弈——决定风险偏好；社会稳定——决定政策底线；结构转型——决定 产业方向；经济增长——决定底线速度。 李超表示，利率下行受益品种有两类——科技、红利，但二者对风险偏好的"口味"相反：科技股"看远 方现金流"，利率越低，估值越能放飞；红利股"看当下票息"，当债券息率低于分红率，资金自然填 仓。 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted optimism for the A-share market, predicting a significant influx of global capital and a bull market ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis Framework - Li Chao emphasized a four-tier analytical framework for understanding China's economy, which includes US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework suggests that maintaining economic growth is contingent upon addressing the first three layers, with a focus on leveraging export advantages to sustain growth [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus is on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, specifically technology stocks and dividend stocks [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price future cash flows favorably in a low-interest environment [4] - Dividend stocks are positioned as attractive alternatives in a low-yield bond market, providing stability and potential for value re-evaluation [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Li Chao expressed a positive outlook for the capital market in 2026, driven by liquidity and structural opportunities, urging investors to adopt an optimistic stance [5]