Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility and downward pressure in 2023, leading to net value declines for bond funds and increased redemption pressures for investors [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has shown frequent fluctuations, with the 30-year treasury futures price retreating over 8% from its peak in February [2][3]. - As of December 5, nearly 800 bond funds reported negative annual returns, with 215 funds yielding less than -1% [7][8]. Group 2: Causes of Market Decline - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to year-end profit-taking by institutions, a lack of clear positive catalysts, and selling pressure from the stock market affecting bond prices [5][6]. - The bond market has not exhibited the typical "stock-bond seesaw" behavior, particularly in the long-duration bonds, which have shown significant interest rate increases [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may face continued downward pressure due to a lack of willingness among major institutional investors to take a bullish stance [9]. - Despite the current challenges, there is potential for a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, as institutions may still have a demand for increased allocations [9][10].

Market Overview - On December 8, the Zhejiang state-owned enterprise reform sector rose by 0.93% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhejiang Xiantong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Top Gainers in Zhejiang State-Owned Enterprises - Jiangxi Xianyun (603239) closed at 21.46, up 6.40%, with a trading volume of 163,000 shares and a transaction value of 340 million [1] - Yong'an Futures (600927) closed at 15.63, up 4.97%, with a trading volume of 221,500 shares and a transaction value of 345 million [1] - Yilida (002686) closed at 7.50, up 4.46%, with a trading volume of 718,200 shares and a transaction value of 532 million [1] - Hangzhou Hydrogen (002430) closed at 29.27, up 4.20%, with a trading volume of 122,300 shares and a transaction value of 641 million [1] - Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) closed at 35.34, up 3.97%, with a trading volume of 298,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.05 billion [1] Top Losers in Zhejiang State-Owned Enterprises - Zhejiang Zhenyuan (000705) closed at 9.91, down 1.49%, with a trading volume of 86,400 shares [2] - Kang En Bei (600572) closed at 4.65, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 334,600 shares [2] - Zhongjie Resources (002021) closed at 2.67, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 323,300 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds in the Zhejiang state-owned enterprise reform sector was 40.66 million, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 58.29 million [2] - Speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 98.95 million [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) had a main fund net outflow of 50.89 million, with a retail net inflow of 14.95 million [3] - Yilida (002686) saw a main fund net inflow of 44.27 million, but a retail net outflow of 27.83 million [3] - Hangzhou Oxygen (002430) had a main fund net inflow of 39.64 million, with a retail net outflow of 19.51 million [3]

近年来，浙商期货不仅为农户送去了金融工具，更在田间地头播下希望的种子：在淳安，15场金融知识 培训覆盖1620名农户，让"风险管理"不再陌生；在武城，3000万元信贷支持让种粮大户敢于扩大规 模......那些曾经捂紧钱袋子的农户，如今开始主动学习看行情、用工具，从"被动等救助"变成"主动谋发 展"。 "十四五"以来，浙商证券（601878）坚持以服务实体经济为根本宗旨，通过创新金融服务模式和深化产 融结合，持续加大对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，精准对接实体经济发展需求，全面赋能中小企业 成长壮大，积极构建全链条、多层次、综合化的服务体系，有效提升金融服务实体经济的质效和水平。 其下属单位浙商期货充分发挥金融板块专业优势，通过"保险+期货"等特色金融工具，在服务国家战 略、支持产业发展、促进农民增收等重点领域积极作为，充分彰显了国有金融企业使命担当。 从"价格焦虑"到"安心种植"：一张保单背后的暖心故事 "保险+期货"模式通过将复杂的风险管理工具转化为农户易懂易用的价格保险，有效化解农业生产的价 格波动风险，为农户提供稳定预期的安心保障。 2022年，生猪均价腰斩。浙江淳安县的养殖户老程因猪肉价格下跌愁得整 ...

格隆汇12月8日｜浙商证券研报指出，美利信控股股东增持彰显发展信心，未来公司在液冷、半导体设 备板块的业绩释放均有望超市场预期。定增有助加速该板块产能建设，巩固领先优势。公司"散热+可 钎焊压铸"产品可用于5G-A通信基站散热部件、新能源汽车热管理流道板、新能源汽车智驾控制器冷板 等高端散热领域，同时公司是目前全球通信行业最早也是极少数成功实现规模化量产该类产品的企业之 一。公司业绩上修时点渐近。根据公司11月公告，2025年是公司深化转型、夯实基础的关键一年。目 前，公司已完成核心板块的前瞻性战略布局，未来公司有信心这些举措将在2026年转化为增长动力，推 动公司业绩重回快速发展轨道。鉴于公司加码液冷、半导体，同时控股股东计划增持，上调公司评级 为"买入"。 ...

浙商证券研报指出，杭氧股份"周期+成长"兼备，可控核聚变+量子计算+商业航天齐发力。公司基于在 气体设备的积累、切入可控核聚变低温系统（国产替代空间较大），与安徽聚变新能等头部紧密合作， 已连续中标订单，成长空间加速打开，期待未来更多可控核聚变招标订单突破。据10月7日杭氧官方微 信公众号，公司中标某发射场大型液氧球罐建设项目，是继为航天发射场提供液氢储罐后又一次研发建 设核心高精尖低温存储装备。此前在2023年，公司生产的液氧及宇航级氪氙气体为朱雀二号遥二运载火 箭发射提供动力保障。可控核聚变设备/量子计算/商业航天未来市场空间大、打开第二增长极。维持"买 入"评级。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to close at 3902.81 points, with a weekly high of 3914.46 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.26% to 13147.68 points, reaching a high of 13164.48 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.86%, closing at 3109.3 points, with a peak of 3115.81 points [1] - Global markets also experienced gains, with the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.5%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.31% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.87% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.47% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 1.04%, with the highest return from the China Tai Zhong Zheng 2000 ETF at 3.06% [2] - The top-performing industry ETF was the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF, which achieved a return of 8.1% [2][4] - The top five stock ETFs by weekly return included Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF (8.1%), Wanji Zhong Zheng Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF (7.97%), and others [4][5] ETF Liquidity and Fund Flows - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs decreased by 11.0%, while average daily trading volume increased by 14.3% [7] - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow included Huatai Bairui Zhong Zheng A500 ETF with an inflow of 1.918 billion yuan [10] - The largest outflows were from Yongying Zhong Zheng Hu Shen Hong Gold Industry Stock ETF, which saw an outflow of 452 million yuan [11] Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs decreased from 47.097 billion yuan to 47.0318 billion yuan, while the margin balance increased to 2.6049 billion shares [12] ETF Market Size - The total size of the ETF market reached 575.2553 billion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for 366.5501 billion yuan [15] - Stock ETFs represented 78.4% of the total number of ETFs and 63.7% of the total market size [17] New ETF Issuance - No new ETFs were issued last week, but four new ETFs were established, including the Huabao Zhong Zheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry Theme ETF [18] Industry Insights - Western Securities expressed strong optimism for the commercial aerospace industry, anticipating a fundamental turning point in satellite internet and commercial rocket launches in the coming year [18] - Huaxi Securities highlighted significant breakthroughs in domestic rocket capabilities, suggesting investment opportunities in low-orbit satellites [18]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 "进退维谷"的同业存单 ——流动性与同业存单跟踪 核心观点 央行买断式逆回购、MLF 等中期流动性投放工具的成本与当前同业存单发行利率形 成比价关系，且公募货币基金和银行理财现管类产品规模有望继续增长，同业存单利 率难以明显上行。但同时 DR001 较难大幅低于央行 7 天期 omo 利率，同业存单利率 下行空间亦有限。 ❑ "进退维谷"的同业存单 执业证书号：S1230525080012 hujianwen@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《事件冲击后，关注 3~5Y 二 永》 2025.10.11 2 《把握事件冲击后的调仓机 会》 2025.10.11 3 《天安财险违约分析与启示》 2025.10.10 四季度以来，参考中债估值，1 年期 AAA 评级同业存单到期收益率振幅仅 5bp, 收益率在此窄幅波动区间内达到均衡。具体地说，四季度以来，1 年期 AAA 评 级同业存单中债到期收益率波动区间在 1.63%到 1.68%之间，12 月份以来振幅更 收窄到 2bp，表明同业存单的" ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...

Core Idea - Current market conditions suggest not to aggressively bottom-fish but to consider small positions for short-term gains, with a focus on 1-2 basis point fluctuations before retreating [3][32] - There is a probability of unexpected monetary easing in Q1 next year, and if there is large-scale central bank net buying of government bonds, significant trading opportunities may arise [3][32] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The bond market currently lacks major institutional buyers, with funds showing diminished profit effects and banks potentially selling old bonds due to year-end pressures [4][7][9] - Fund products are under pressure, with a notable decline in the scale of long-term bond ETFs from approximately 55 billion to 48 billion since November [7][41] - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks as substitutes for long-term bonds, with the dividend yield of the A-share dividend index at approximately 4.3%-4.4%, significantly higher than the 30-year government bond yield of 2.25% [16][48] Group 2: Future Opportunities - Patience is advised for positioning after the year-end, as new rounds of easing may emerge post-New Year, with expectations of increased central bank bond purchases [4][50] - The market anticipates a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, with potential significant trading opportunities when the main contract price approaches 109 yuan [4][50][53] - The current lack of trend-following buying interest from major institutional investors suggests that the bond market's negative sentiment may not have fully dissipated [4][34] Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on risk control, while mid-term outlooks remain optimistic, anticipating a shift in investment strategies from capital gains to carry strategies [4][34] - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound as year-end adjustments conclude, with institutions likely to increase their allocations [4][53] - The central bank's bond buying signals are currently more significant than their actual impact, with expectations of increased buying in the near future [4][50]