Zheshang Securities(601878)
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研报掘金丨浙商证券:首予昆仑万维“买入”评级,目标价74.3元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-02-05 06:56
Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei has completed the full industry chain layout of "computing power - model - AI application," demonstrating its commercialization capability with a short drama business annualized revenue exceeding $240 million [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The short drama business has achieved an annualized revenue of over $240 million, validating its commercial potential [1] - The DramaWave short drama platform shows a steep growth curve in Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) [1] Group 2: Future Growth Prospects - The Tian Gong Super Intelligent Body is set to initiate a second growth curve in productivity scenarios such as AI search, AI music, and AI social [1] - The company is expected to transition from the investment phase to the realization phase in 2026 [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - Using the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation method, the target market value is set at 93.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 74.3 yuan [1] - The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating for the stock [1]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持鹏鼎控股“增持”评级,AI驱动第二成长曲线
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-05 06:24
Core Viewpoint - Pengding Holdings positions itself as a global leader in PCB, leveraging AI to drive a second growth curve, expanding from consumer electronics to AI computing and advanced communication boards [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - The company is deeply integrated with leading consumer electronics clients and is opening new growth avenues in AI computing and high-end communication boards, with expectations for computing-related business to exceed forecasts [1] - The wholly-owned subsidiary, Qingding Precision, has successfully acquired industrial land in Huai'an to meet PCB industry investment demands, laying a solid foundation for future expansion [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - In the optical communication sector, the company is utilizing its accumulated SLP technology from the consumer electronics field to design advanced mSAP for the 800G/1.6T optical communication domain, with ongoing development of the next-generation 3.2T optical communication solution [1] - The parent company, Zhendin, is actively developing HDI and HLC PCB products for AI servers, indicating a strong focus on AI-related PCB technology [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Given the company's deep technical accumulation in AIPCB, proactive capacity layout, and comprehensive product matrix, the AI-PCB business is expected to accelerate in volume, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:上调新乳业“买入”评级,盈利能力有望持续提升
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-05 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities highlights the strong competitiveness of New Dairy's products, indicating that the low-temperature leader's momentum will continue, thereby opening up mid-term profit space [1] Group 1: Profitability and Revenue Outlook - The company's net profit margin elasticity is primarily derived from the raw milk cost advantage, suggesting that if raw milk prices stabilize and rise, the company's net profit margin may come under pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the revenue from the company's ambient dairy products will stabilize and narrow its decline by 2026, with expectations for the ambient business revenue to turn positive [1] - The company's revenue forecast for 2026 may be adjusted upwards due to these factors [1] Group 2: Margin Improvement and Rating - The company's profitability is expected to continue improving due to product structure optimization and an increase in the proportion of D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) channels [1] - A target price-to-earnings ratio of 20XPE for 2027 has been set, with an upgrade to a "Buy" rating [1]
浙商证券李超:消费是2026最重要逆周期变量,看多A股
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 00:58
Group 1 - The chief economist of Zheshang Securities, Li Chao, emphasizes the necessity of maintaining an active fiscal policy with a certain level of deficit for 2026 [1] - Li Chao indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy will likely continue, with potential interest rate cuts still on the table [1] - The focus for 2026 should shift towards the importance of consumption as a key counter-cyclical variable, contrasting with the past where real estate was the main counter-cyclical factor [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market in 2026 should not overly focus on interest rates but rather on risk appetite, suggesting that a sustained optimistic market sentiment could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" market through valuation increases [1]
浙商证券研究所开年流失数名首席 卖方行业迎来新一轮“洗牌”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-03 12:18
Group 1 - The sell-side industry is experiencing a new wave of personnel changes since the end of 2025, with at least five chief analysts from Zheshang Securities leaving, many opting to join other brokerages in January 2026, thereby forfeiting the opportunity to participate in the 2026 New Fortune Best Analyst Awards [1][2] - The research departments of brokerages are among the most volatile in terms of talent movement, influenced by factors such as brokerage rankings, shareholder changes, and compensation incentives [1][2] - Zheshang Securities has seen significant personnel turnover, including the departure of key analysts like Liang Fengjie, who was recognized as a top performer in the banking research sector [2][3] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities is also facing a similar wave of departures, with several star analysts leaving, attributed to changes in the company's actual controller and management [5] - The brokerage's commission income has declined, ranking 21st in the industry with a revenue of 0.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down one position from the previous year [5] - The industry is witnessing a trend where established firms are losing ground to emerging players, with companies like Huayuan Securities and Guojin Securities actively recruiting new analysts [6][7] Group 3 - Traditional leading institutions are experiencing a decline in rankings and personnel, with Guotou Securities losing 10 analysts, a 12% decrease, and its commission income dropping significantly from 4.485 billion yuan in 2021 to 0.419 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [8][9] - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly challenging, with mergers among major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Haitong leading to a clearer hierarchy in the sell-side research industry [9]
2026年2月大类资产配置月报:核心叙事的变与不变-20260203
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-02-03 11:31
- The report introduces a **macro scoring model** that evaluates macroeconomic factors to guide asset allocation. The model's construction involves scoring domestic and global factors such as credit, inflation, and monetary cycles. For February, the model indicates a positive outlook for A-shares, U.S. equities, copper, and crude oil, while downgrading the timing view on 10-year bonds to neutral[29][31][32] - A **U.S. equity timing model** is presented, which monitors indicators like economic momentum and fiscal dependency. The model highlights that the U.S. economy's reduced reliance on fiscal stimulus and improved internal dynamics strengthen the bullish outlook for U.S. equities[33][34][36] - The **gold timing model** suggests a shift from trend-based to range-bound thinking due to microstructural rebalancing and signs of improving U.S. economic momentum. The latest gold timing indicator value is -0.45, showing slight improvement from the previous month[38][41][42] - The **crude oil timing model** reflects a cautious stance, with the oil sentiment index at -0.08, remaining below the neutral threshold. The model attributes this to a lack of strong fundamental drivers for a sustained upward trend in oil prices[39][42][45] - The **asset allocation strategy** uses quantitative signals to allocate risk budgets and adjusts macro risk exposures based on macro factor systems. The strategy achieved a 2.7% return in January, a 10.9% return over the past year, and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%[6][42][43] - The report provides the **optimized asset allocation proportions** for February, with notable changes including an increase in allocations to the CSI 800 (6.7%) and S&P 500 (9.9%), while reducing allocations to 10-year bonds (63.6%) and copper (3.2%)[46]
监管频频出手!逾10家券商年内收罚单,经纪业务成重灾区
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2026-02-03 08:39
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying its regulatory scrutiny on brokerage firms, maintaining a high-pressure stance against illegal activities in the capital market, with a focus on ensuring long-term healthy development [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - In January, 14 brokerage firms and their branches received regulatory penalties, primarily related to margin trading, brokerage, and investment banking violations [1]. - Jianghai Securities, Financial Street Securities, and Xinda Securities were among the firms that received the most penalties [1]. - The regulatory crackdown is seen as beneficial for the long-term health of the capital market [1]. Group 2: Specific Violations - Brokerage firms faced the highest number of penalties in the brokerage business sector, with Jianghai Securities' Harbin Hongjun Street branch receiving warnings for inadequate compliance in client follow-up and management issues [2]. - Jianghai Securities was also penalized for third-party involvement in investor solicitation and for employing unqualified personnel in securities-related roles [2]. - Other firms like Hualin Securities and Zheshang Securities were penalized for issues related to complaint handling and compliance in transaction audits, respectively [3]. Group 3: Margin Trading and Investment Banking Violations - Margin trading violations have drawn regulatory attention, with Xinda Securities' Wenzhou branch penalized for insufficient control measures and failure to monitor abnormal trading behaviors [4]. - Jinyuan Unified Securities was the only firm penalized for investment banking violations, failing to fulfill its supervisory duties regarding a client’s compliance and information disclosure [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued warnings to sponsors from China International Capital Corporation for inadequate due diligence in an IPO project [5]. Group 4: Overall Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for the securities industry has become increasingly stringent, with over 300 penalties issued last year affecting nearly 80 brokerage firms, particularly in the brokerage business sector [5].
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持东鹏饮料“买入”评级,看好公司平台化布局
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-02-03 06:30
Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned for clear growth in 2026, driven by its platform layout and strong market position in the energy drink sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage is the leading player in the domestic energy drink market, with stable growth in its energy drink segment and expansion in new product categories [1] - The company benefits from scale advantages and cost optimization, which are expected to drive performance beyond expectations [1] Group 2: Market Comparison - The report references Nongfu Spring, a comparable industry leader, which has a solid and steady growth in its mineral water business and a rapidly growing sugar-free tea segment [1] - Nongfu Spring's 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 29 times, indicating a strong market position [1] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage's leading position in functional drinks and the high growth potential of its electrolyte water segment suggest a continuously improving industry ceiling [1] - The company is projected to achieve a 2026 valuation of 30 times earnings, corresponding to a market value of 172.5 billion, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [1] - The recommendation for Dongpeng Beverage is to maintain a "buy" rating [1]
白严离任浙商证券资管旗下7只基金
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-02-02 08:03
Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zheshang Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. announced the departure of fund manager Bai Yan, who has been replaced by Cheng Jiawei for several funds [1][4][5][6]. Fund Performance Summary - **Zheshang Huijin Monthly Enjoy 30-Day Rolling Holding Short-Debt A/C**: Established on November 19, 2021, with a year-to-date return of 0.38% and a cumulative net value of 1.1483 yuan [1]. - **Zheshang Huijin Junhong Two-Year Open-End Bond A/C**: Established on October 30, 2020, with a year-to-date return of 0.08% and a cumulative net value of 1.1244 yuan [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Jinxuan Money Market Fund**: Established on August 26, 2022, with a cumulative return of 4.37% [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Juying Short-Debt A/C**: Established on June 25, 2019, with a year-to-date return of 0.15% and a cumulative net value of 1.1751 yuan [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Juyi One-Year Open-End Bond A/C**: Established on August 1, 2016, with a year-to-date return of 0.22% and a cumulative net value of 1.3731 yuan [3]. Fund Manager Changes - Bai Yan has been dismissed as the fund manager for multiple funds, including Zheshang Huijin Monthly Enjoy, Zheshang Huijin Junhong, Zheshang Huijin Juying, and Zheshang Huijin Juyi [4][5][6]. - Cheng Jiawei has been appointed as the new fund manager for the aforementioned funds [4][6].
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持中际联合“买入”评级,2025年报业绩预告符合预期
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-02 06:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Zhongji United's 2025 performance forecast meets expectations, with an anticipated year-on-year growth of 59%-75% in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is enhancing its order structure and optimizing customer coverage and product recognition in response to the rapid growth of the wind power industry, leading to a continuous increase in order scale [1] - Internally, the company is strengthening its capabilities through various measures such as optimizing product structure, technical breakthroughs, process improvements, and cost reduction, which further enhances its profitability [1] Group 2 - The company is positioned as a leader in high-altitude safety equipment for wind power operations, benefiting from the high demand in the domestic wind power market and expanding into overseas and multiple sectors, which opens up growth opportunities [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its future performance and market position [1]