丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国银河（601881.SH） [Table_Title] 中国银河 2025 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高增， 自营投资韧性凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度，中国银河业绩维持较快增长。具体来看，经纪业务随市高增，融资业务市场份 额提升；债市震荡中投资收益亮眼，扩表节奏放缓；投行收入快速增长，债券承销份额持续提 升；看好公司作为头部央企券商，受益于扶优限劣与并购重组政策导向，同时投行及资管业务 在新管理层与新战略下有望继续发力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国银河（601881.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 中国银河 2025 2] 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高 增，自营投资韧性凸显 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国银河发布 2025 一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 75.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the securities industry in the A-share market has improved significantly in the first quarter, with 38 out of 42 listed brokerages reporting year-on-year profit growth, driven by increased market activity [1][2][4]. Group 1: Profit Performance - 12 brokerages achieved a net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan in the first quarter, with Guotai Haitong leading at 12.242 billion yuan [2][3]. - The top three brokerages by net profit growth are Northeast Securities (859.84%), Guotai Haitong (391.78%), and Guolian Minsheng (271.95%) [1][4][5]. - All listed brokerages reported profitability in the first quarter, contrasting with losses from Guolian Minsheng and Tianfeng Securities in the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Revenue Sources - The increase in wealth management business revenue has been a significant contributor to the positive performance of brokerages [6]. - Brokerage commission income saw growth across the board, with notable increases from leading firms: CITIC Securities (36.18%), Guotai Haitong (76.96%), and GF Securities (50.66%) [6][7]. - Securities investment income for the 42 brokerages reached 48.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.02% [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts express optimism regarding the future performance of the securities industry, citing ongoing reforms and potential policy support [13]. - The head institutions in the industry are expected to have greater valuation enhancement opportunities due to their ability to leverage policy innovations [13].

互换便利工具在去年下半年推出，不少券商陆续获得了参与互换便利的业务资格。不过，究竟有哪些券商实际落地了互换 便利业务？参与额度又有多少？部分券商年报有披露。 有的券商在年报中表示，公司使用互换便利获得的资金持仓股票和股票ETF。还有的券商称，公司主动参与央行第二批互换便 利操作且积极配置A股市场。年报数据显示，有的券商互换便利质押式回购接近50亿元。 买入股票和股票ETF "作为首批获得互换便利业务资格的金融机构，整体参与进度属于同业前列；发挥做市商专业优势，为中小微企业提供专业化 的流动性支持，公司在北交所做市业务中创市场先例，首家通过互换便利账户开展北交所做市业务，向市场传递积极信号。" 申万宏源表示 。 财通证券称， 互换便利作为国家支持资本市场健康发展的增量政策，为资本市场和行业发展带来了重大政策机遇。公司积极 承接政策，获得互换便利业务资格，并在第一时间完成股票增持的首笔交易。据悉，财通证券使用互换便利获得的资金持仓 股票和股票ETF。 东吴证券称， 响应国家政策号召，成功取得互换便利操作资格，主动参与央行第二批互换便利操作且积极配置A股市场。 东方证券 稳妥使用互换便利资金，高效筛选合适的A股标的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recovery of LITONG Technology's performance in Q1 2025, driven by increased orders for acid fracturing hose assemblies and a rebound in domestic demand for construction machinery [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 483.84 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.21 million yuan, down 19.82% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 124.26 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35.64 million yuan, up 86.13% year-on-year [1]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen an increase in orders for acid fracturing hose assemblies, contributing to a rise in gross margin to 43.26% in 2024, despite a decline of 4.58 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The company has obtained API17K certification for its products, facilitating its expansion into the marine engineering hose market [3]. - Multiple new product developments have progressed, including 43 types of nuclear power hoses and a high-pressure food sterilization device, indicating a broadening of the company's product portfolio [4]. Future Growth Prospects - The company projects net profits of 125 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 167 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.30%, 15.70%, and 16.10% [4]. - The market potential for the company's main products, including hydraulic rubber hoses and industrial hoses, is significant, with new product lines expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4].

潘森宏观的Claus Vistesen在报告中写道，关税的不确定性将限制法国经济的任何重大反弹。法国截至3 月的三个月里经济增长了0.1%，扭转了去年年底的收缩，但几乎没有显示出强劲势头的迹象。根据潘 森宏观的估计，由于国内需求疲软，加上美国贸易关税造成了破坏性的不确定性，法国经济将在第二季 度保持这种蹒跚的增长速度，然后在今年剩余时间里陷入停滞。然而，关税政策的变化可能会改变这种 前景。 国外 1. 高盛：大幅下调美国一季度GDP增速至-0.8% 高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出口双双增长。贸易逆 差扩大的主要原因是消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢跑"。先行经济指标报告 的细节显示，与我们之前的GDP追踪假设相比，进口增长明显强劲，但出口增长温和走强，库存积累速 度加快。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百分点至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。 美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 2. 大摩：关税政策的不确定性，叠加美联储独立性受到质疑，或导致外资削减对美投资 摩根士丹利报告指出，美国政府关税政策的不确定性，尤其是多次政策反复，叠 ...

中国银河（601881）证券股份有限公司赵良毕,洪烨近期对润建股份（002929）进行研究并发布了研究报告 《2025Q1营收双位数增长，算力网络生态良好》，给予润建股份买入评级。 证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，东北证券韩金呈研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三 年预测准确度均值为19.43%，其预测2025年度归属净利润为盈利11.21亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为10.91。 最新盈利预测明细如下： 通信网络基石牢筑，算力网络生态良好。分业务看，2024年公司通信网络与数字网络营业收入占比分别约 49.7%与26.6%，算力网络营业收入同比高增约71.7%。通信网络方面，2024年公司实现运营商业务数字化产 品赋能，在广东、江苏、贵州等多个省份中标，数字网络方面，围绕通信、教育、能源、园区管理、企业管 理等领域，打造超60款智能体应用，取得"某央企知识管理大模型开发服务"等典型项目，能源网络方面，由 于部分项目未达收入确认条件对业绩形成主要拖累，服务与储备的风力、光伏、储能项目装机总容量超 20GW，完成能源行业巡检作业里程超43万公里，新能源巡检作业规模累计超1.7GW，通信光伏、铁塔高温整 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Galaxy reported a significant increase in net profit and revenue for Q1 2025, with net profit reaching 3.02 billion and revenue at 7.56 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 84.9% and 4.8% respectively [1] - The company's main revenue sources in Q1 2025 included brokerage, investment banking, asset management, net interest, and net investment income, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 53.1%, 59.5%, 19.3%, -2.4%, and 94.0% [1][2] - The company’s operating leverage slightly increased, with a year-on-year operating leverage of 4.09x, while the financial investment asset scale remained stable at 386.2 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [2] Group 2 - The investment income for Q1 2025 was reported at 3.16 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 94.0%, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.27%, up by 1.61 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The brokerage business outperformed the industry, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 53.1% and a market share in margin trading of 5.49%, slightly up from the beginning of the year [2] - Future profit projections for China Galaxy indicate expected net profits of 11.16 billion, 11.56 billion, and 12.22 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 4%, and 6% respectively [3]

4月30日，中国银河今日收盘15.64元，下跌1.45%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和 的比值）达到14.98倍，总市值1710.14亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的证券行业市盈率平均25.66倍，行业中值23.38倍，中国银河排名第 12位。 股东方面，截至2025年3月31日，中国银河股东户数176605户，较上次增加8342户，户均持股市值35.28 万元，户均持股数量2.76万股。 中国银河证券股份有限公司的主营业务是财富管理业务、投资银行业务、机构业务、国际业务、投资交 易业务和其他母子公司一体化业务。公司的主要产品是零售经纪及财富管理、金融产品销售业务、信用 业务、投资银行业务、机构业务、国际业务、投资交易业务、期货业务、资产管理业务、另类投资业 务、私募股权投资管理业务。2024年，公司获评《证券时报》"2024中国证券业服务民营企业项目君鼎 奖"，第十七届新财富"最佳债权承销投行"、"最具潜力投行"，第九届CNABS"金桂奖"最佳绿色金融产 品奖，第十届中国资产证券化论坛（CSF）"年度杰出机构"，第六届Wind最佳投行"最佳中国并购重组 财务顾问"、"最佳信贷ABS ...

Core Insights - The total revenue of 49 securities firms and listed entities for Q1 reached 132.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.39 billion yuan, up 75.55% year-on-year [1][2] - Excluding special impacts from Guotai Junan's negative goodwill, the net profit growth rate for the 49 firms was 49.26% [1] Revenue and Profit Rankings - The top ten securities firms by net profit in Q1 are: CITIC Securities (6.55 billion yuan), Huatai Securities (3.64 billion yuan), Guotai Junan (3.29 billion yuan, adjusted), China Galaxy (3.02 billion yuan), GF Securities (2.76 billion yuan), Dongfang Caifu (2.72 billion yuan), Guoxin Securities (2.33 billion yuan), China Merchants Securities (2.31 billion yuan), Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (2.23 billion yuan), and CICC (2.04 billion yuan [1][2] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business net income for 42 comparable firms totaled 32.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% [4][9] - Investment banking revenue for the same firms was 6.67 billion yuan, up 5.39% year-on-year, with 24 firms showing positive growth [13] - Asset management revenue fell to 10.10 billion yuan, down 3.34% year-on-year, with 19 firms reporting positive growth [17] Revenue Structure - Brokerage and proprietary trading accounted for 64.56% of total revenue, with proprietary trading being the largest source at 38.57% [5] - The contribution of investment banking, asset management, and interest-related income was relatively low, at 5.3%, 8.02%, and 6.26% respectively [5] Notable Growth Rates - Guotai Junan's net profit growth reached 391.78%, primarily due to the absorption of Haitong Securities' negative goodwill [6] - Significant net profit growth was observed in firms like Northeast Securities (859.84%), Guolian Minsheng (271.95%), and Guosheng Financial Holdings (205.96%) [6] - The average net income growth for the securities firms was around 50% [6] Revenue Growth by Business Type - The top ten firms in brokerage income were CITIC Securities (3.33 billion yuan), Guotai Junan (2.65 billion yuan), GF Securities (2.05 billion yuan), and others [10][11] - Proprietary trading income for 42 firms was 48.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.02% [21] - Interest income for the firms was 7.88 billion yuan, up 27.25% year-on-year [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the 42 listed securities firms achieved a total operating income of 508.847 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147.835 billion yuan, which is a 15.88% increase compared to 2023 [1][2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, the investment banking business of the listed securities firms generated a net income of 30.608 billion yuan, a decline of 27.40% from 42.158 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a widespread downturn in the industry [3][4] - Only 6 out of the 42 listed securities firms, accounting for 14.29%, reported positive growth in their investment banking revenues, while most firms experienced significant declines [3][4] - The investment banking revenue constituted a small portion of the overall income for most firms, with only a few firms like CICC, CITIC Securities, and others exceeding 10% of their total operating income from investment banking [3][4] Group 3 - Smaller regional securities firms have shown resilience in their investment banking performance despite the competitive and declining market, often focusing on niche areas or specific regions [4][5] - Notable examples include Shouchao Securities, which achieved significant growth in asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance, and First Capital Securities, which focused on IPOs in the Beijing Stock Exchange [4][5] - Firms like Caida Securities have excelled in bond issuance, ranking close to the top 20 in the industry, with a more than fourfold increase in asset securitization business [4][5] Group 4 - Listed securities firms are increasingly emphasizing their role in supporting the real economy, with firms like Nanjing Securities and First Capital Securities focusing on providing comprehensive financial services tailored to key industries [5][6] - Caida Securities has also targeted the "new quality productivity" development needs, supporting regional economic growth through various bond issuances and mergers and acquisitions [5][6]