中国银河证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 10 日 成功发行了中国银河证券股份有限公司 2025 年度第七期短期融资券（以下简 称"本期短期融资券"），本期短期融资券发行额为人民币 30 亿元，票面利 率为 1.80%，短期融资券期限为 91 天，兑付日期为 2025 年 7 月 10 日。（详见 本公司于 2025 年 4 月 11 日刊登于上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）的 《中国银河证券股份有限公司 2025 年度第七期短期融资券发行结果公告》）。 2025 年 7 月 10 日，本公司兑付了本期短期融资券本息共计人民币 3,013,463,013.70 元。 特此公告。 中国银河证券股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 12 日 证券代码：601881 证券简称：中国银河 公告编号：2025-050 中国银河证券股份有限公司 2025年度第七期短期融资券兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带 责任。 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.43%, the Nasdaq by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 by 0.27%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new closing highs [3] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising by 4.7% and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion [3] - Bitcoin-related stocks saw gains, with Coinbase increasing by over 4% [3] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [3] Pension Adjustment - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced a pension adjustment for retirees starting January 1, 2025, with an overall increase of 2% based on the average monthly pension of retirees by the end of 2024 [4] U.S.-China Economic Relations - The Ministry of Commerce stated that since May, U.S. and Chinese economic teams have maintained close communication to stabilize trade relations, following agreements reached in Geneva and London [5] Industry Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for polysilicon futures contracts starting July 14, 2025 [6] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 135,000 units in early July, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a cumulative retail of 6.583 million units for the year, up 37% [6] Corporate Announcements - Li Ping, Vice Chairman of CATL, donated 4.05 million shares to a foundation, completing the transfer process [9] - Saisir expects a net profit increase of 66.2% to 96.98% for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [10] - WuXi AppTec anticipates a 44.43% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating around 6.315 billion yuan [10] - iFlytek expects a net loss of 200 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 400 million yuan in the same period last year [11] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation forecasts a net profit increase of 98.25% to 119.49% for the first half of 2025, estimating a profit of 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan [12] - Limin Co., Ltd. announced plans for a share reduction by its controlling shareholder, not exceeding 3% of the company's total shares [13] Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing discussions on self-discipline and supply-side reforms, with expectations for capacity reduction and potential recovery in the industry, although actual improvements depend on the effectiveness of supply-side measures [13] - The upcoming changes to the CIPS rules are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, benefiting banks' cross-border business expansion [13]

Group 1 - The demand for overseas AI reasoning computing power is expected to grow significantly, with projected increases in total computing power demand for AI Agent applications reaching 8 times, 3.5 times, and 2.5 times from 2026 to 2028 respectively [1] - NVIDIA's upcoming AI chips, Vera Rubin NVL144 and Rubin Ultra NVL576, are expected to outperform previous models significantly, with performance increases of 3.3 times and 14 times respectively compared to the GB300 NVL72 [1] - The supply-demand gap for overseas reasoning computing power is anticipated to widen due to the rapid growth in demand outpacing the evolution of AI chip performance [1] Group 2 - The overall monthly active user growth for domestic AI applications is lagging behind that of overseas applications, with the top 20 overseas AI products showing a monthly growth rate of approximately 4% as of May this year [2] - Doubao has demonstrated a relatively strong performance, with its daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, while Huolanganjing holds a 46.4% market share in the domestic public cloud for large model calls [2] - The positive cycle between overseas AI computing power and applications is expected to drive significant capital expenditure guidance from major North American cloud providers by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The business model of AI Agents is shifting from "providing tools" to "delivering value," indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for SAAS companies [3] - The enterprise-level AI Agents are at a critical point of scalable application, with priority sectors for implementation identified as enterprise services (OA/ERP/CRM), finance/risk control, marketing/e-commerce, manufacturing/supply chain, legal/government, and healthcare/education [3] - The growth of productivity AI agents is being driven by efficiency improvements, with a notable increase in AI tools for programming, education, and creative sectors [3]

Group 1 - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee has further deepened the "anti-involution" work deployment, with more areas in the building materials industry joining the call for "anti-involution" [1] - The cement industry is expected to have orderly and controllable supply in the future, contributing to high-quality development of the industry [1] - Glass fiber companies are likely to maintain rational pricing, with profits expected to remain stable and show a positive trend [1] - The waterproof industry has initiated a "anti-involution" campaign, with companies' profits expected to achieve a bottom recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independent financial advisor, China Galaxy Securities, has conducted a thorough review of the restricted stock release and listing for Xinjiang Beixin Road and Bridge Group Co., Ltd, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and commitments made during previous financing activities [1][7]. Group 1: Restricted Stock Release - A total of 177,260,865 shares will be released from restrictions, representing 13.98% of the company's total share capital [5]. - The listing date for the released shares is set for July 14, 2025 [5]. Group 2: Changes in Share Capital - Following the formation of the restricted shares, the company's total share capital increased from 1,054,658,053 shares to 1,268,291,582 shares, reflecting an increase of 59,369,655 shares [2][6]. - The total share capital as of the date of the review is confirmed to be 1,268,291,582 shares [2]. Group 3: Commitments and Compliance - The company has made several commitments to avoid competition and ensure compliance with regulations, including commitments made in 2008, 2010, 2016, and 2020 regarding related party transactions and maintaining independence [3][4]. - The independent financial advisor has verified that the company has adhered to these commitments and that the information disclosed regarding the restricted stock release is accurate and complete [6][7].

Core Points - The Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to Xiong Jiaoyan for unauthorized stock sales and falsifying transaction records during her tenure at a securities firm [1][3][4] - Xiong's actions violated specific provisions of the Securities Brokerage Business Management Measures, particularly regarding unauthorized trading and record falsification [2][3] - The warning letter will be recorded in the securities and futures market integrity archive, emphasizing the need for compliance with securities laws and regulations [4] Regulatory Framework - The Securities Brokerage Business Management Measures prohibit securities firms and their employees from engaging in unauthorized trading, accepting commissions without proper authorization, and falsifying transaction records [2] - Administrative measures for violations include issuing warning letters, requiring corrections, and conducting regulatory discussions [2][4] - Xiong has the right to appeal the administrative measures within 60 days or file a lawsuit within 6 months [4]

Core Viewpoint - The modification of CIPS rules is expected to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, benefiting banks' cross-border business expansion [1][5] Summary by Sections Bank Sector Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market with a 3.77% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.54%. The performance of different types of banks includes: state-owned banks (+2.76%), joint-stock banks (+4.41%), city commercial banks (+4.01%), and rural commercial banks (+2.47%). Notably, 41 listed banks saw their stock prices rise, with Zhejiang Commercial Bank (+7.92%), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (+7.6%), and Shanghai Bank (+7.53%) leading the gains. As of July 4, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.70, and the dividend yield was 5.65% [2] CIPS Rule Revision - On July 6, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) solicited opinions on the draft of the revised CIPS business rules. The main focus of the revision is to improve the management mechanism for participants and set only principle-based requirements for their business behaviors. This revision is expected to further promote the internationalization of the RMB and support the development of banks' cross-border business. The optimization of business rules is seen as necessary and forward-looking, enhancing the attractiveness of CIPS and increasing the international influence of the RMB [3] Investment Opportunities in the Banking Sector - The banking index reached a closing price of 4603.91 on July 4, marking a nearly 10-year high, with a weekly increase of 3.77%. Three key investment opportunities are identified: 1. The low interest rate environment continues to attract medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital increasingly investing in bank stocks. For instance, Ping An Life increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank of China H-shares to 13% as of June 30. The stable dividend yield of banks is expected to outperform bonds and wealth management returns [4] 2. The low allocation of public funds and the expansion of broad-based indices are expected to bring incremental capital inflows, benefiting quality regional banks significantly [4] 3. The acceleration of convertible bond conversions among small and medium-sized banks is anticipated to provide short-term opportunities, as seen with Qilu Bank announcing early redemption of its convertible bonds [4] Investment Recommendation - The modification of CIPS rules is expected to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and benefit banks' cross-border business. The acceleration of convertible bond conversions among small and medium-sized banks is likely to strengthen their capital base. The growth of medium to long-term funds and the potential recovery of public fund allocations are expected to reshape bank valuations positively. The company maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector's allocation value and continues to recommend investment in this area [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, reflecting early signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and emerging deflationary forces [1] - Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 index target for the next 12 months by 11%, citing earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Fed and strong fundamentals of large-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 index's expected returns for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months have been adjusted to +3%, +6%, and +11% respectively, with new target levels set at 6,400, 6,600, and 6,900 points [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that U.S. trade negotiations are moving towards a tactical escalation, with potential increases in tariffs affecting Asian economies [2] - Mizuho Securities notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [3] - Nomura Securities suggests that clearer trade tariffs could help the market eventually rise, as new agreements may reduce uncertainty [5] Group 3 - Bank of America reports that improved Canada-U.S. relations and reduced tariff tensions are likely to benefit the Canadian banking sector [4] - OCBC Bank highlights that despite recent cooling measures in Singapore's real estate market, there remains potential for price and transaction volume increases [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with a terminal rate potentially dropping to 3.10% [8] Group 4 - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its cash rate in July, leaving the market to interpret future rate changes [9] - CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a new era driven by active trading and structural changes in asset and funding dynamics [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a turning point for IDC due to growing domestic and international demand for intelligent computing centers [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities identifies new investment opportunities in the upstream life sciences sector, driven by recovery in revenue growth and domestic substitution trends [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, while also recommending attention to other quality firms like Guotai Junan, China Galaxy, Dongfang Securities, and Zheshang Securities [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The performance recovery of listed securities firms is expected to continue into Q2 2025, driven by a rebound in capital markets and increased trading activity, with an estimated 10% year-on-year growth in operating revenue [1][12]. - The self-operated and brokerage business lines are projected to maintain high growth rates, with self-operated income expected to increase by 30% and brokerage income by 26% year-on-year [1][2][12]. - The investment banking sector is anticipated to recover, with IPO and refinancing activities showing significant growth, leading to a projected 20% increase in investment banking revenue [4][32][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Outlook - Q2 2025 is expected to see a continuation of high growth momentum for listed securities firms, with operating revenue projected to grow by 10% year-on-year, driven by self-operated, brokerage, asset management, credit, and investment banking businesses [1][12]. - The market sentiment is recovering, and trading activity is increasing, with the average daily trading volume in the stock market reaching 1.49 trillion yuan [2][18]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks, particularly leading securities firms that are likely to benefit from the recovery of the capital market [37][38]. - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions, along with the steady progress of refinancing, are expected to enhance the performance of the securities industry [38][48]. 3. Key Companies - CITIC Securities is projected to maintain high growth rates in Q2 2025, benefiting from strong performance in its investment banking and international business segments [50][51]. - Huatai Securities is also expected to show robust performance, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [39][50]. 4. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial projections for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and net profit growth across the sector [6][39]. - For instance, CITIC Securities is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 178 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 29.1% [50]. 5. Market Trends - The report highlights the positive trends in the Hong Kong stock market, which are expected to benefit mainland securities firms in their investment banking and brokerage businesses [40][41]. - The ongoing recovery in the capital markets, along with supportive government policies, is likely to enhance the overall performance of the securities industry [37][38].

证券代码：601881 证券简称：中国银河 公告编号：2025-049 中国银河证券股份有限公司 2025年度第十四期短期融资券发行结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带 责任。 中国银河证券股份有限公司 2025 年度第十四期短期融资券已于 2025 年 7 月 8 日发行完毕，相关发行情况如下： | 债券名称 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 | 2025 | 年度第十四期短期融资券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券简称 | 25 银河证券 CP014 | 债券流通代码 | 072510117 | | 发行日 | 2025 年 7 月 7 日 | 起息日 | 2025 年 7 月 8 日 | | 到期兑付日 | 2026 年 7 月 8 日 | 期限 | 365 天 | | 计划发行总额 | 35 亿元人民币 | 实际发行总额 | 35 亿元人民币 | | 票面年利率 | 1.62% | 发行价格 | 100 元/百元面值 | 本 期 发 行 短 期 融 资 券 的 相 关 文 ...