Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, forecasting a double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for the brokerage sector in Q2 2025, with an estimated net profit of 43.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a low base effect and a recovering market, with significant contributions from proprietary trading and brokerage services. The report anticipates a total investment income of 49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report highlights a rebound in the stock and bond markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% in Q2 2025. The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 16.7 basis points to 1.6469% during the same period [3][4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on leading institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, brokers with significant earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage and Margin Financing - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q2 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. The average daily margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion yuan, up 19% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6]. - The report projects brokerage business revenue of 25.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21% [4][6]. Investment Banking - The report notes a significant increase in A-share equity financing, with IPOs reaching 21.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 171% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. The total refinancing volume was 562.2 billion yuan, compared to 235 million yuan in Q2 2024 [3][6]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 71% year-on-year and 86% quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. Asset Management - The report indicates that the asset management business remains resilient, with the market size of equity mixed funds reaching 7.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. The ETF market also saw significant growth, expanding to 4.3 trillion yuan, up 13% from Q1 2025 [3][6]. - Asset management revenue is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. International Business - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong trading and IPO activity, with an average daily trading volume of 241.3 billion HKD, an 83% increase compared to 2024. Year-to-date IPO fundraising in Hong Kong reached 107.1 billion HKD [3][6].

中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of top investment advisors in the A-share market, with significant excess returns compared to the market average, showcasing their capabilities in a volatile market environment [1][3]. Performance Overview - The average return of the top 300 advisors in the stock trading group reached 27.19%, while the top 10 advisors achieved an impressive average return of 47.41% [2][3]. - In June, the three major indices in the A-share market all showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.23%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.02% [3]. ETF Group Performance - The average return for the top 200 advisors in the ETF group was 17.34%, with the top 10 achieving an average return of 30.93% [10][11]. - Compared to the benchmark indices, the top advisors significantly outperformed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.71% during the same period [11]. Advisor Strategies - Advisors from leading firms like Guangfa Securities and CITIC Securities shared their strategies, focusing on growth stocks and utilizing models like "5+30" to identify high-potential sectors [13][14]. - Risk management strategies were emphasized, including controlling drawdowns and diversifying portfolios to mitigate risks during market fluctuations [15][20]. Institutional Strength - Guangfa Securities, CITIC Securities, and China Galaxy Securities led the rankings in terms of the number of advisors participating in the evaluation, indicating their strong institutional capabilities [23][28]. - The competition among institutions reflects a shift towards a client-centric approach in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of professional capabilities [39]. Future Outlook - Advisors are focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and aerospace, while also considering macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies [17][22]. - The article suggests that as market volatility becomes the norm, the ability of professional advisors to create value will be crucial for their competitive edge [39].

Core Insights - The China Securities Association conducted a special data survey on the performance of securities firms in promoting financial "five major articles" for 2025, revealing the ranking of firms in terms of personal pension product distribution [1] Summary by Category Securities Firms Ranking - The ranking of securities firms based on the scale of personal pension product distribution (in ten thousand yuan) is as follows: - China International Capital Corporation: 248,276 - Galaxy Securities: 180,620 - GF Securities: 171,836 - China Merchants Securities: 139,135 - Guosen Securities: 137,794 - Industrial Securities: 114,222 - Guotai Junan Securities: 71,553 - CITIC Securities: 53,185 - Huatai Securities: 40,565 - Ping An Securities: 34,479 - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: 25,942 - Dongfang Securities: 21,668 - Zhongtai Securities: 21,320 - CITIC Jianan Securities: 13,698 - Changjiang Securities: 9,807 - Dongfang Fortune Securities: 4,552 - Guotou Securities: 2,649 - Everbright Securities: 2,315 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities anticipates an improvement in the military industry sector's performance in the second quarter of 2025, driven by increased orders and favorable financial results from mid to upstream companies [1] Short-term Outlook - The second quarter earnings season is expected to show improvement due to the release of first-quarter orders and high inventory levels, which may enhance the performance of certain mid to upstream enterprises, gradually benefiting downstream companies [1] - Orders for military components are projected to reverse the downward trend by June, with order growth expected to turn positive in the second half of the year as secondary demand is released [1] Mid-term Outlook - The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, which is expected to bring more industry catalysts in the third quarter, alongside positive earnings expectations from some companies in the second quarter, creating structural investment opportunities [1] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing India-Pakistan conflict is enhancing the visibility of China's military industry, leading to a significant moment for military trade, with domestic demand and military trade resonating to open up demand for military equipment [1] - The centenary of the military establishment in 2027 is approaching, suggesting a sustained period of high prosperity for the industry over the next three years [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market shows a mixed trend with a slight increase in the main contract price, while trading volume and positions indicate a net short position among the top 20 participants [1]. Trading Data - As of July 3, the main contract for glass (2509) closed with a price increase of 1.56%, with a trading volume of 3,468,400 contracts, a decrease of 642,000 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions show a total long position of 1,007,900 contracts, down by 29,300 contracts, and a total short position of 1,295,000 contracts, up by 101,000 contracts [1]. Position Changes - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan (total position 123,994), CITIC Futures (77,440), and Huatai Futures (67,699) [1]. - The top three short positions are also led by Guotai Junan (256,566), followed by Galaxy Futures (110,307) and CITIC Futures (97,134) [1]. Notable Changes in Positions - The largest increase in long positions was seen in Shenyin Wanguo (26,127 contracts, an increase of 7,179), followed by GF Futures (30,838 contracts, an increase of 5,437) and CITIC Jiantou (39,244 contracts, an increase of 4,652) [1]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by Dongzheng Futures (58,894 contracts, a decrease of 21,625), followed by Haitong Futures (30,643 contracts, a decrease of 11,952) and Everbright Futures (27,650 contracts, a decrease of 7,549) [1]. Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment appears to be leaning towards bearishness, as indicated by the increase in short positions among the top participants [1].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have announced support for the issuance of technology innovation bonds, expanding the range of issuers to include financial institutions, technology companies, private equity investment institutions, and venture capital institutions [1][2] Group 1: Issuance Plans - Major financial institutions such as the China Development Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Industrial Bank have announced plans to issue technology innovation bonds, with total issuance expected to reach 200 billion yuan from the China Development Bank and 100 billion yuan from the Industrial Bank [1] - As of May 8, 36 companies have announced plans to issue technology innovation bonds with a total scale of 21 billion yuan, while 14 companies have registered for issuance with a total scale of 18 billion yuan [1][2] - Securities firms have also responded actively, with announcements for a total of up to 17.7 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, including plans from major firms like CITIC Securities and China Merchants Securities [2] Group 2: Funding Utilization - The funds raised from the issuance of technology innovation bonds will primarily support the development of technology innovation businesses, including investments in national technology innovation demonstration enterprises and manufacturing champions [1][3] - Specific allocations include 70% of funds from Guotai Junan being directed towards supporting technology innovation sectors such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [3] Group 3: Market Impact and Trends - The inclusion of financial institutions as issuers of technology innovation bonds is expected to enhance market vitality and expand the market for technology innovation bonds, facilitating better funding support for technology innovation [2][4] - Data indicates that the issuance scale of technology innovation bonds is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% [3] - The average issuance interest rate for 5-year AAA-rated technology innovation bonds is expected to remain lower than that of ordinary corporate bonds, indicating a favorable financing environment for issuers [3][5]

科创债新规以来，券商除了自身发行科创债以外，还在积极发挥中介机构作用，帮助各类企业发行科创 债。 "作为宁波轨交科创债牵头主承销商，我们深度挖掘客户亮点，吸引银行机构、保险公司、基金公司等 多家投资机构踊跃参与。"中信建投证券称。 证券时报记者了解到，一方面，券商在承销科创债过程中第一时间响应政策，论证客户的科创属性，并 通过广泛推介询价，充分挖掘市场需求及资源，引入基石投资者；另一方面，券商还积极开展科创债的 做市报价服务，提升科创债市场流动性。 同时，监管对于券商的展业评价也将进一步完善。近日，中国人民银行、中国证监会就支持发行科技创 新债券有关事宜公告称，"建立科技创新债券专项承销评价体系和做市机制，组织做市商为科技创新债 券提供专门做市报价服务，建立承销、做市联动机制。提高科技创新债券承销、做市在承销商、做市商 评价体系中的权重。" 5月8日，中信建投作为牵头主承销商及簿记管理人，助力中国石化集团资本有限公司（下称"石化资 本"）成功发行新一期科技创新公司债券。 "我们与石化资本持续密切关注政策走向，第一时间响应政策号召，最终成功发行了相关支持政策发布 后的首单央企科技创新公司债券。"中信建投证券表示 ...

中国银河（601881）证券表示，在此前美联储理事沃勒表态预计关税不会显著推高美国通胀，美联储可 能最早可以在7月降息后，本周美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上表示通胀和就业形势可能意味着美联 储可能会提前降息。美联储重量级官员最近对降息边际上更为"鸽派"的发言，有助于市场对于美联储降 息预期的升温，或将支撑金价的上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The fund name is Bosera SSE AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, which has been approved for fundraising by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [14][15] - The fund is a bond-type open-ended index fund, with an initial share value of 1.00 RMB [15][22] - The maximum fundraising scale for the fund is set at 3 billion RMB, excluding interest and subscription fees [30][31] Group 2 - The fund will be publicly offered on July 7, 2025, with three subscription methods: online cash subscription, offline cash subscription, and offline bond subscription [6][18] - Investors must have a Shanghai Stock Exchange A-share account or a fund account to subscribe to the fund [32][34] - The fund management company is Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the custodian is CITIC Bank [1][3] Group 3 - The fund will accept offline bond subscriptions only for bonds that are components of the SSE AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index [4][28] - The minimum subscription amount for offline cash subscription through the fund management company is 50,000 shares, while for other agents, it is 1,000 shares [3][26] - The fund will allow multiple subscriptions, and there is no upper limit on the cumulative subscription amount [3][26] Group 4 - The fund's subscription fees will be calculated based on the subscription amount and the applicable fee rate [23][24] - Investors can cancel their online cash subscription requests within the same trading day [39] - The fund will undergo a verification process to confirm the total subscription amount and ensure it meets the regulatory requirements [67][68]