行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

Core Viewpoint - The global copper supply is under pressure due to the shutdown of large mines and anticipated U.S. tariffs, leading to a projected shortage in the coming years. Demand for copper is expected to rise significantly driven by AI, green energy, and defense sectors, with forecasts indicating that existing and planned mining capacities will only meet about 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple large mines have ceased operations this year, impacting global supply and prompting market revisions of copper production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1]. - The market anticipates that the U.S. may impose at least a 25% tariff on refined copper by mid-2026, leading to a shift of copper inventories towards the U.S. and exacerbating shortages in other regions [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that current and planned mining capacities will only satisfy approximately 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Copper is expected to be in high demand over the next decade due to its applications in AI, green energy transitions, and defense restructuring [1]. - The rapid development of AI, particularly in the U.S. with initiatives like the Genesis Mission, is significantly increasing copper demand for data center construction [1]. - China's commitment to specific greenhouse gas reduction targets is anticipated to support copper demand through upgrades in electrical infrastructure and power grids [1]. Group 3: Company Performance - Zijin Mining has set a five-year plan aiming for a copper production increase of over 49% by 2028, reaching 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, alongside a gold production increase of over 47% to 100-110 tons [1]. - The company reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to 254.2 billion RMB and a 55% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 37.86 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities grew by 44% to 52.11 billion RMB, indicating strong financial health [2]. Group 4: Diversification and Future Outlook - The company operates multiple mining projects across 17 countries, enhancing its risk diversification capabilities [2]. - Recent acquisitions, including the completion of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, have bolstered its gold reserves and expanded its footprint in West Africa and Central Asia [2]. - If metal prices continue to rise, the company's earnings forecast for 2026 could be adjusted upwards, with projected earnings per share increasing by approximately 28% to 2.475 RMB [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zijin Mining experienced two block trades on December 12, totaling 314,500 shares and a transaction amount of 9.97 million yuan, with a transaction price of 31.70 yuan [1] - The institutional special seat appeared in one of the transactions, with a total transaction amount of 3.95 million yuan, indicating a net sell of 3.95 million yuan [1] - Over the past three months, Zijin Mining has recorded 25 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 2.164 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - On December 12, Zijin Mining's closing price was 31.70 yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.39%, with a daily turnover rate of 1.07% and a total transaction amount of 6.992 billion yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 93.28 million yuan, and the stock has increased by 1.21% over the past five days, with a total net inflow of 133 million yuan [1] - The latest margin financing balance for Zijin Mining is 7.169 billion yuan, which has decreased by 34.49 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 0.48% [1]

证券代码：601899 证券简称：紫金矿业 编号：临 2025-099 紫金矿业集团股份有限公司 关于召开2025年第二次临时股东会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 股东会召开日期：2025年12月31日 本次股东会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东会网络投票系统 一、 召开会议的基本情况 (一) 股东会类型和届次 2025年第二次临时股东会 (二) 股东会召集人：董事会 (三) 投票方式：本次股东会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合的 方式 (四) 现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间：2025 年 12 月 31 日 09 点 00 分 召开地点：福建省上杭县紫金大道 1 号紫金总部大楼 21 楼会议室 (五) 网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自2025 年 12 月 31 日 至2025 年 12 月 31 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股东 会召开当日的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (02899) announced that several directors and senior management exercised their stock options during the first exercise period of the 2023 stock option incentive plan, resulting in the issuance of 3.4 million shares [1] Group 1 - The stock options were exercised on December 11, 2025 [1] - The announcement highlights the company's commitment to incentivizing its management team through stock options [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) announced that several directors and senior management exercised their stock options during the first exercise period of the 2023 stock option incentive plan, resulting in the issuance of 3.4 million shares on December 11, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The stock options were part of the company's incentive plan aimed at aligning the interests of management with those of shareholders [1] - The exercise of stock options indicates management's confidence in the company's future performance and growth potential [1] - The issuance of 3.4 million shares may impact the company's share structure and market perception [1]

翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年12月12日 FF305 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 普通股 | 股份類別 A | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 601899 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 行股份（不包括 ...

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd.* 紫 金 礦 業 集 團 股 份 有 限 公 司 （一家於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股票代碼：2899） 2025年第二次臨時股東會回條 致：紫金礦業集團股份有限公司（「本公司」） 1. 請用正楷書寫登記在股東名冊上的全名及地址。 2. 請將以 閣下名義登記之H股數目填上。 3. 此回條在填妥及簽署後須於2025年12月29日（星期一）或之前送達本公司董事會秘書處，地址為：中華人民 共和國福建省廈門市思明區環島東路1811號中航紫金廣場B塔41層，或本公司H股股份過戶登記處，香港 中央證券登記有限公司，地址為：香港灣仔皇后大道東183號合和中心17M樓，方為有效。此回條可親身 交回本公司，亦可以郵遞方式交回。 （登記在股東名冊上）為本公司股本中每股面值人民幣0.10元股份 （註二） H股之註冊持有人，茲通告本公司，本人╱吾等親自或委託代理人出席本公司於2025年12月 31日（星期三）上午9時正在中華人民共和國（「中國」）福建省龍岩市上杭縣紫金大道1號公司 總部大樓21樓會議室舉行之2025年第二次臨時股東會或其任何續會。 日期： 簽署 ...

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd.* 紫 金 礦 業 集 團 股 份 有 限 公 司 （一家於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股票代碼：2899） 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司第九屆董事會非獨立董事選票 股東姓名（單位）： 法定代表人（委託代理人）： 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司第九屆董事會獨立董事選票 股東姓名（單位）： 法定代表人（委託代理人）： 持有股份： 最大有效表決權數： | 序號 | | 候選人 | 累積投票（請見附註） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 票數 | | 1. | 吳小敏女士 | | | | 2. | 薄少川先生 | | | | 3. | 林壽康先生 | | | | 4. | 曲曉輝女士 | | | | 5. | 洪波先生 | | | | 6. | 王安建先生 | | | 附註： 一、 於臨時股東會上，本公司第九屆董事會非獨立董事應選人數為7人；本公司第九屆董事會獨立董事應選人 數為6人。本次選舉為累積投票選舉。 二、 投票人選舉非獨立董事的最大有效表決權數為代表股份數與應選人數（7人）的乘積。如代表股份數為1,000 股 ...