Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that with a significant macroeconomic policy shift and improving economic expectations, logistics companies at the bottom of the cycle, like the company in focus, have substantial upside potential [4][19]. - The company has faced challenges due to intensified competition, strategic management fluctuations, and demand pressures, but recent changes in the competitive landscape and management strategy may lead to a turning point in profitability and stock price [4][5][24]. Summary by Sections Introduction: A Leading Player in the Cyclical Bottom of Express Delivery - The company is positioned well in the logistics sector, showing high performance metrics while maintaining relatively low valuations, indicating strong investment value [4][19]. Review: Why the Leading Express Delivery Company Lost Its Way - Since its IPO, the company's stock performance has been underwhelming, with profitability stagnating due to increased competition, management instability, and economic pressures [4][24]. - The competitive landscape has shifted with the acquisition by JD Logistics, potentially stabilizing the market and allowing for strategic realignment [5][24]. Changes in the Competitive Landscape: Awaiting Demand Recovery - The acquisition by JD Logistics has restructured the competitive dynamics from a three-player to a more stable duopoly, which is expected to help restore pricing power in the industry [5][55]. - The report notes an increase in online shopping penetration for large items, which is beneficial for the company's market share [5][55]. Outlook: The Former Leader Set to Rise Again - The new management team is focused on operational efficiency and enhancing service quality, which is expected to drive growth in volume and profitability [6][55]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 850 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.17 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.5, 14.6, and 12.7 times [6][55]. Lean Management and Network Integration - The company is implementing lean management practices and accelerating network integration, which is anticipated to improve asset utilization and market share [6][55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [4][7]. Core Insights - The demand for large-item transportation is expected to recover, driven by the government's policies promoting the replacement of old appliances, which have shown significant effects on sales [1]. - The collaboration with JD Logistics is progressing steadily, with plans to enhance cooperation in the home appliance and home improvement sectors, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [2]. - Shareholder confidence is highlighted by JD Zhaofeng's plan to increase its stake in the company, indicating strong support from major stakeholders [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Recovery - The government has implemented policies to support the replacement of old appliances, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% for eligible products, leading to a notable increase in sales [1]. - As of November 8, 2024, over 20.25 million consumers purchased 30.45 million units of major appliances, generating sales of 137.79 billion yuan [1]. Strategic Partnerships - Since JD Logistics' acquisition of the company in September 2022, the partnership has been advancing, with plans to acquire assets from JD Logistics to enhance operational efficiency [2]. - The company aims to focus on increasing revenue and volume in the second half of 2024, supported by refined internal management to improve cost efficiency [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, with projected net profits of 862 million yuan in 2024, 1.065 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.287 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.61%, 23.51%, and 20.90% respectively [4][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 17.6, 14.3, and 11.8, indicating an attractive valuation [4][6].

证券代码：603056 证券简称：德邦股份 公告编号：2024-039 德邦物流股份有限公司关于 间接控股股东以专项贷款和自有资金 增持公司股份计划的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 德邦物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年11月22日收到公 司间接控股股东宿迁京东卓风企业管理有限公司（以下简称"京东卓风"）通知， 京东卓风拟通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持公司A股股份。 本次增持计划的实施期限为自本公告披露之日起12个月，拟增持总金额不低于人 民币3亿元（含），不超过人民币6亿元（含）。（以下简称"本次增持计划"）。 一、增持主体的基本情况 （一）增持主体名称及与公司的关系 本次增持计划的增持主体为京东卓风。京东卓风直接持有本公司 6.48%股份， 并持有本公司控股股东宁波梅山保税港区德邦投资控股股份有限公司（以下简称 "德邦控股"）100%股份，为本公司间接控股股东。 （二）增持主体已持有股份的数量、占公司总股本的比例 本次增持前，京东卓风直接持有公司股份 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2024 net profit of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, while the revenue for the same period was 9.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.0% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The express delivery business faced revenue pressure, with a 18.0% decline in express revenue, while the core freight business saw a 1.2% increase in revenue [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience and increasing transportation resource investment, which has led to a rise in transportation costs as a percentage of revenue [3]. Financial Data Summary - For 2022A to 2026E, the company's projected revenue growth rates are 0%, 16%, 17%, 17%, and 12% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 339%, 15%, 11%, 21%, and 15% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.63 yuan in 2022A to 1.12 yuan in 2026E, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 22.6 to 12.7 over the same period [1]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to be 51.65% in 2023A, with a slight increase to 55.3% in 2024E before decreasing to 51.6% in 2026E [8].

公 司 点 评 报 告 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------| | | | | ＃市场数据 marketData 市场数据日期 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 14.33 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | 1026.96 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1026.96 | | 净资产（百万元） | 8064.36 | | 总资产（百万元） | 16714.8 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 7.85 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2024 年 中报点评：聚焦加导流强化快运 业务规模效应 业绩增长确定性 强》2024-08-17 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2023 年 三季报点评：京东业务整合高 效，利润率处于上升通道》2023- 11-07 《【兴证交运】德邦股份 2023 中 报点评：格局优化、内生提效、 产业链整合三要素共振，看好短 期与长期价值》2023-08-17 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ S019052108 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. However, the revenue for the third quarter was 9.850 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year, but the third quarter net profit decreased by 19.40% to 184 million yuan [5] - The company is experiencing pressure on performance but is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.21%. The third quarter revenue was 9.850 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%. However, the third quarter net profit was 184 million yuan, down 19.40% year-on-year [5] Business Operations - The express freight volume increased by 9.4%, and express freight revenue grew by 3.2% in the third quarter [5] - The company has increased its investment in transportation resources, leading to improved service quality [5] - The operating costs for the third quarter were 9.119 billion yuan, up 1.81% year-on-year, with labor costs decreasing by 4.23% to 3.688 billion yuan [5] Management Efficiency - The company’s period expenses decreased by 14.88% year-on-year to 518 million yuan, with a period expense ratio down by approximately 1 percentage point [5] - Sales expenses increased by 47.34% year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced sales capability and an increase in the sales team [5] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 39.953 billion yuan, 44.188 billion yuan, and 48.647 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.13%, 10.60%, and 10.09% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 858 million yuan, 1.041 billion yuan, and 1.287 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.11%, 21.22%, and 23.71% [5] - The company is expected to maintain its "Accumulate" rating due to favorable conditions in the express freight industry and ongoing improvements in management efficiency [5]

利润也造成了一些影响展望四季度公司还会延续三季度的经营策略短期看盈利端会有一些影响但是公司会结合内外部的环境变化及时做好资源的动态调整尽量确保四季度的经营结果平稳 下面我就算计数的成本,费用先进流方面再做个说明首先在营业成本方面,人力成本占收入比为37.44,同比下降了2.05个百分点,呈持续下降的趋势其中我们有投入也有节降,主要原因第一个是为了不断强化网络覆盖的能力,升级客户受害服务体验 公司在三季度增加了一些资源的投入通过合伙人派送补贴的方式提升末端乡镇全境的覆盖率三季度一次性升级了八千多个乡镇全境派送能力每个月会增加一到两千万的成本第二是公司积极推动各项经营的举措持续提升各环节的人效收派环节持续重视收派人员分轮车占比的提升收派片区的合理化等以及低效收派员的光伏人均收派效率在持续的提升 在中软环节随着网络融合的推进以及内部操作流程的优化周转人像也是有所提升在运输环节通过使用智能驾驶设备优化线路接吻等方式降低人车比这样使得人像有所提升第三随着末端网点的转型升级部分基础的管理人员文职人员也在同步转向销售职能或者进行了优化第四业务结构的变化有一些高运费低人工成本的业务的体量 从上四个因素人工成本占收入比例呈下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in its core express business, with a focus on waiting for revenue elasticity as the macroeconomic environment improves [3][4] - The company reported a total revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.850 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.03%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 184 million yuan, a decline of 19.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The core express business, which accounts for 90.14% of the company's revenue, generated 8.879 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.23% [3][4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 7.42%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with costs accounting for 92.58% of revenue [4][6] - The company is implementing cost reduction measures, including route optimization and vehicle upgrades, to control transportation costs, which are expected to improve margins in the future [6][7] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 40.756 billion yuan, 45.593 billion yuan, and 50.074 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 10% respectively [7][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 954 million yuan, 1.161 billion yuan, and 1.368 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 18% [7][8]

编号：2024-008 证券代码：603056 证券简称：德邦股份 德邦物流股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | √ | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | 投资者关系活动 | □ | 媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 类别 | □ 现场参观 | | | | □ | 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | | 中金公司、中信证券、国海证券、大成基金管理有限公司、信达澳银基金管理有限公 | | 参与单位名称及 | | 司、华泰资产管理有限公司、摩根士丹利、上海东方证券资产管理有限公司、鹏华基金 | | 人员姓名 | 管理有限公司、 | T.Rowe Price International, Inc. 、苏州云阳宜品投资管理有限公司、 | | | 兴银基金管理有限公司等 | 53 家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Deppon Logistics (603056 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Deppon Logistics' Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to macroeconomic challenges and lower-than-expected contribution from JD Logistics [1][6] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 28 3 billion (+11 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 517 million (+9 71%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][6] - Q3 2024 revenue grew by only 1 0% YoY to RMB 9 85 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 19 4% YoY to RMB 184 million [1][6] - The integration of Deppon and JD Logistics networks is progressing steadily, with a reduction of over 40 distribution centers and a 10% decrease in area YoY in Q3 2024 [1][6] - Core express delivery business (excluding JD Logistics impact) achieved a 9 37% YoY growth in volume to 3 4097 million tons in Q3 2024 [1][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 labor costs decreased by 4 23% YoY, accounting for 2 05 percentage points less of revenue [1][10] - Transportation costs increased by 12 30% YoY in Q3 2024, accounting for 4 44 percentage points more of revenue [1][10] - Gross margin in H1 2024 was 7 42%, down 0 63 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 1 87%, down 0 47 percentage points YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 operating expenses decreased by 14 9% YoY to RMB 518 million, with an operating expense ratio of 5 26%, down 0 99 percentage points YoY [1][10] Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 39 725 billion (+9 5%) in 2024E, RMB 44 175 billion (+11 2%) in 2025E, and RMB 48 718 billion (+10 3%) in 2026E [3][11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 882 million (+18 2%) in 2024E, RMB 1 142 billion (+29 5%) in 2025E, and RMB 1 401 billion (+22 7%) in 2026E [3][11] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 86 in 2024E, RMB 1 11 in 2025E, and RMB 1 36 in 2026E [3][11] - ROE is expected to improve from 10 6% in 2024E to 13 7% in 2026E [3][11] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 16 7x in 2024E to 10 5x in 2026E [3][11]