Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively opened higher, with notable increases: Luoyang Molybdenum up 8.54% to HKD 13.6, Jiangxi Copper up 8.47% to HKD 26.9, China Nonferrous Mining up 7.44% to HKD 13, Minmetals Resources up 6.27% to HKD 6.1, and Zijin Mining up 3.91% to HKD 30.8 [1][1][1] - International copper prices surged significantly, with the London Metal Exchange three-month copper price rising by 3.2% to USD 10,297.50 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase since April 10 [1][1][1] Group 2 - A fatal landslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has led to a production halt, with recovery to pre-accident production levels expected no earlier than 2027 [1][1][1] - Freeport anticipates a 35% decrease in copper and gold production for 2026 compared to previous forecasts due to the incident [1][1][1] Group 3 - Citic Futures maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, citing positive macroeconomic expectations following the Federal Reserve's September meeting and frequent disruptions in copper supply, particularly the significant impact of the Grasberg mine's suspension [1][1][1]

截至发稿，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)涨8.54%、江西铜业股份(00358.HK)涨8.47%、紫金矿业(02899.HK)涨 3.91%。 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector opened high, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Companies such as Jingyi Co., Northern Copper, and others reached their daily limit up [1] - Notable performers included Naipu Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper, all of which opened high [1]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. by purchasing 987,700 shares at an average price of HKD 12.5361 per share, totaling approximately HKD 12.38 million [1] - Following this transaction, JPMorgan's total holdings in Luoyang Molybdenum rose to 236,188,418 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 5.97% to 6.00% [1]

| 股份代號: | 03993 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 洛陽樂川鋁業集團股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 25/08/2025 - 25/09/2025 | | 在日本 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 賈入 / 曹出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期材 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 文章 7 - 1 = | | of a resident of the closed on and | 有投票權殺(日/月/年) { | | CS20250924E00278 | 987.743(L) JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1101(L) | | HKD 12.5361 | 236,188,418(L) | 6.00(L) 19/09/2025 | | | | | | | 30,602,166(S) | 0.77(S) | | | | | | | 149,941,114(P) | 3.81(P) ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) in the mining industry is emphasized, highlighting that it requires long-term investment and commitment for sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: ESG Commitment - ESG is viewed as a fundamental aspect for the long-term sustainability of mining companies, not merely a branding exercise [1]. - The mining industry is characterized by high ESG density, making it essential for companies to prioritize ESG initiatives to ensure their ongoing viability [1]. - For Luoyang Molybdenum, ESG is integral to all operations, balancing economic value creation with adherence to environmental standards and community benefits [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Mining is a long-term investment sector, with operations potentially lasting decades or even centuries [2]. - Luoyang Molybdenum has invested nearly $10 billion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), emphasizing the need for a long-term vision and local integration [2]. - The company has invested $325 million in community initiatives since the TFM mine began production, contributing to a stable external environment for operations [2]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Competitive Advantages - Luoyang Molybdenum has evolved from a local company to a global resource player, with over 90% of its assets and revenue derived from overseas [3][4]. - Chinese mining companies possess advantages in technology, manufacturing, and collective spirit, which are beneficial in resource-rich but infrastructure-poor regions [4]. - The internationalization of mining is seen as an extension of industrial chain globalization, with Chinese companies poised to leverage their capabilities in underdeveloped areas [4]. Group 4: Social Responsibility in DRC - The DRC is identified as an underdeveloped region with a GDP of approximately $70 billion in 2024, highlighting the significant responsibility of companies operating there [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is committed to community development through infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, hospitals, and agricultural initiatives [5]. - The company's efforts in the DRC are framed as essential for embedding ESG practices into its operational foundation, ensuring resilience against risks and changes [5].

香港联交所最新资料显示，9月19日，摩根大通增持洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)98.7743万股，每股均价 12.5361港元，总金额约为1238.24万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.36亿股，最新持股比例为6.00%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，9月19日，摩根大通增持洛阳钼业(03993)98.7743万股， 每股均价12.5361港元，总金额约为1238.24万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.36亿股，最新持股比例 为6.00%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has lifted its cobalt export ban and shifted to a quota system, allowing for significant exports in the coming years, which is expected to impact the global cobalt supply chain and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The DRC will allow over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports in 2023, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, distributed based on companies' historical export volumes [1]. - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market saw significant increases, indicating a positive market reaction [1]. - The shift from a complete export ban to a quota system suggests a more refined approach to managing cobalt resources in the DRC [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cobalt market is currently facing a raw material shortage, with high concentration in spot inventories, leading to price increases primarily driven by traders and companies holding physical stocks [2]. - The battery sector, which consumes over 70% of cobalt, is experiencing pressure due to inventory levels, causing battery manufacturers to reduce procurement from upstream suppliers [2]. - The DRC's export policy change is expected to lead to a supply shortage in the global cobalt market from 2025 to 2027, with projected shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [8]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Reactions - Domestic cobalt prices in China have been reported between 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the market [3]. - The overall cobalt market is experiencing reduced supply and rising prices, with international demand also increasing, contributing to a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [3]. - Companies in the cobalt sector are currently assessing the new quota system and its implications for their operations, with some indicating that they have sufficient inventory to manage potential supply disruptions [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Accumulate" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and the introduction of stable growth policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and potentially support steel prices if the fundamentals continue to improve [4][5]. - For copper, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a strong copper price if downstream demand continues to improve [4][46]. - Aluminum prices may also be supported by improving downstream demand and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4][52]. - Gold prices are expected to stabilize if the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index shows signs of slowing down, with long-term attention on the Fed's interest rate path [4][59]. - The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to strengthen cobalt prices in the short term [4][20]. - The rare earth market is expected to see price fluctuations due to weak seasonal demand, with attention on international trade policies affecting exports [4][5]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targeting an average annual growth of 4% in value added for the steel industry over the next two years [22]. - The plan includes ten specific measures focusing on consumption peak, supply quality improvement, industry transformation, effective consumption expansion, and deepening open cooperation [22]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in steel demand due to construction material consumption, while supply has decreased slightly, leading to a marginal improvement in the market [22][23]. Copper Industry - The copper market is showing signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased operating rates in domestic copper rod enterprises [45][46]. - The supply side remains stable, and the copper price is expected to be supported if demand continues to improve [46][49]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is benefiting from improved downstream demand and stable production costs, with expectations of price support from the Fed's easing policies [52][53]. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, with potential price support if inflation data shows signs of slowing [59][60]. Cobalt and Rare Earths - The cobalt market is facing supply constraints due to export restrictions from the DRC, while the rare earth market is experiencing price volatility amid weak demand [4][20].