证券代码：605499 证券简称：东鹏饮料 公告编号：2024-091 东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司 股东天津君正创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙） 减持股份结果公告 减持计划的实施结果情况 1、2024 年 7 月 3 日，公司披露了《东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司股东天 津君正创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）减持股份计划的公告》（公告编号：2024- 065），君正投资计划以集中竞价交易方式和大宗交易方式减持公司合计不超过 12,000,300 股股份，即不超过公司总股本的 3％，减持价格按市场价格确定。 公司于 2024 年 9 月 26 日披露了《东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年 半年度权益分派实施公告》（公告编号：2024-088），本次利润分配及转增股本以 方案实施前的公司总股本 400,010,000 股为基数，每股派发现金红利 2.5 元（含 税 ），以 资本 公 积金向 全 体股 东每 股 转增 0.3 股 ， 共计 派发 现 金红 利 1,000,025,000 元，转增 120,003,000 股（股权登记日为 2024 年 10 月 8 日，上 市日为 2024 年 10 月 9 日）， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage with a target price of 263 RMB, based on a projected PE of 45 times for 2024 [2]. Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned to capitalize on the growing energy drink market, which is expected to expand significantly, potentially reaching a market size of 100 billion RMB in China [1][9]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with a revenue CAGR of 23% from 2017 to 2023, and its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has surpassed 10 billion RMB in revenue [1][2]. - The energy drink segment in China has seen a CAGR of 14.0% from 2013 to 2023, indicating robust demand driven by health consciousness and efficiency needs among consumers [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Drink Market Growth - The energy drink sector is a high-growth area within the soft drink industry, with significant expansion in consumer demographics and usage scenarios [1][9]. - The overall soft drink market in China has stabilized, with a CAGR of 3.2% from 2013 to 2023, while energy drinks have outperformed with a CAGR of 14.0% [1][9]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Dongpeng Beverage has emerged as a strong competitor in the energy drink market, increasing its market share to 24.7% in 2023, up from 8.6% in 2016 [1][9]. - The company has effectively differentiated itself through high cost-performance products and a robust channel management strategy, including a nationwide distribution network [1][9]. 3. Future Growth Prospects - Dongpeng is expected to continue its national expansion and product diversification, aiming to exceed 20 billion RMB in revenue in the near future [1][9]. - The company is also exploring new product categories, including electrolyte water and sugar-free tea, to enhance its market presence and appeal to health-conscious consumers [1][9]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Dongpeng Beverage are optimistic, with expected revenues of 158 billion RMB in 2024, 200 billion RMB in 2025, and 248 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 40%, 27%, and 24% respectively [2][3]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 30 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 49.2% [2][3].

大家好欢迎参加华晶食品东鹏饮料公司深度东鹏展示 征程未有穷期食品饮料投资思考的时期目前所有参会者均处于静态下面可以选择报名和声明 本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可 任何机构和或个人不得以任何形式转发翻版复制发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构个人或其运营的媒体平台接收翻版复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容不得制作会议纪要对外发送擅自制作会议纪要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有违者必究 好的各位投资者大家下午好欢迎参加本次华经正确食品饮料组投资思考系列第17我是食品饮料组的王影那么在本期的一个会议中我们将属于着重去分享东鹏饮料的一个深度报告那么东鹏饮料这家公司这几年的一个经营表现也是非常的出彩特别是去年开始业绩表现持续超预期 那么也体现出了比较高的一个成长性对于估值的一个提升也是有了比较好的一个支撑那么反馈到股价方面从年初到至今的话东鹏饮料的一个股价也是实现了60%左右的一个涨幅那么在这篇深度当中我们也是着重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.6-2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.0%-64.9% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 4.53-4.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.3%-52.4%. The strong performance of Dongpeng Special Drink is expected to continue, supported by new product launches [2]. - Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with net profit margins projected at 19.9% and 19.4% for attributable and non-attributable net profits, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.7 and 3.3 percentage points [2]. - The company's brand strength is on the rise, with accelerated national expansion. The focus on sales-driven operations is expected to solidify the market position of Dongpeng Special Drink [2]. - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of 3.22 billion, 4.39 billion, and 5.55 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 57.8%, 36.3%, and 26.5% [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.736 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.219 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 57.8% [3]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to reach 4.441 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in profitability metrics such as ROE projected at 40.4% [3]. - The report highlights a stable financial position with a projected current ratio of 1.18 and a quick ratio of 1.04 for 2024, indicating good liquidity [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with strong sales momentum, indicating a reinforced growth trend [1][4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 124.0-127.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.50%-47.21% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26.0-27.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.04%-64.89% [4] Revenue Summary - The company reported a revenue of 45.3-48.5 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 42.32%-52.38% [4] - The sales performance has been positively impacted by various initiatives, including advertising during the Olympics and product promotions related to school training [4][6] - Inventory days have decreased due to improved sales and enhanced inventory management [4] Profitability Summary - The company is experiencing cost improvements and enhanced efficiency, leading to strong profitability [4] - The gross margin is expected to maintain the level seen in Q2 2024, aided by a significant drop in sugar prices [4] - Despite increased expenses related to advertising and equipment, the sales momentum is strong, leading to a projected improvement in the sales expense ratio [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.1 billion yuan, 211.1 billion yuan, and 269.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.0%, 31.0%, and 27.5% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan, 43.1 billion yuan, and 55.9 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 58.6%, 33.2%, and 29.7% respectively [4][6] - Corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 34, 25, and 20 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The company continues to show strong performance, leading to an upward revision of profit expectations. Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.975 billion, 20.242 billion, and 24.586 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.84%, 26.71%, and 21.46% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.204 billion, 4.185 billion, and 5.240 billion yuan, with growth rates of 57.10%, 30.61%, and 25.20% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 36.96% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.50%-47.21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.6-2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.04%-64.89% [10]. - For Q3 alone, the expected revenue is 4.527-4.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.32%-52.38%. The net profit is projected to be 869-999 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.80%-82.55% [10]. Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a national expansion strategy, which is driving terminal sales. The energy drink segment is expected to maintain good growth, with a trend towards younger and more diverse consumer demographics. The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in areas like esports and street dance [10]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 35, 27, and 22 respectively. The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform, supported by strong performance in its second growth curve and increased shareholder returns through semi-annual dividends [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.04% to 64.89% [1][3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be between 12.4 billion and 12.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.5% to 47.21% [2][4] - The company maintains a high growth rate in Q3 2024, with expected revenue of 4.538 billion to 4.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.68% to 52.74% [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 21% to 21.5% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 1.8 percentage points to 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q3 2024, the expected net profit is between 880 million and 1.011 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60.89% to 84.64% [3] - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 16.172 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.6% [5] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system nationwide, which is expected to support growth in energy drinks and new product lines [4] - The introduction of new products, such as "Dongpeng Water," has led to a significant increase in revenue from other beverages, which grew by 194% to 630 million yuan in Q2 2024 [2][4] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 6.42 yuan, 7.98 yuan, and 9.01 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 34, 27, and 24 times based on the closing price of 217 yuan per share on October 10, 2024 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations for multiple consecutive quarters, with a strong growth trend expected to continue into Q3 2024. The anticipated revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5% to 47.21% [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its brand marketing and strengthening its terminal channel construction, which is expected to drive further growth in sales and market presence [5][6]. - The cost side is benefiting from a significant decrease in domestic sugar prices, which is expected to enhance gross margins. The company is also increasing marketing expenditures to support sales activities, which may lead to a rise in expense ratios but is anticipated to result in profits exceeding expectations [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 15.979 billion, 20.475 billion, and 25.469 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.87%, 28.14%, and 24.39% [6][7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period has been adjusted to 3.233 billion, 4.350 billion, and 5.662 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 58.52%, 34.52%, and 30.18% [6][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 34, 25, and 19 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation relative to the expected high growth in earnings [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 251.44 [1][5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 12.4-12.72 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 2.6-2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.0%-64.9% [2][3] - The company continues to focus on national expansion and channel management, enhancing operational capabilities and increasing product exposure. The new product line "Buhua La" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [2][3][4] - The company’s gross profit margin is positively impacted by a decrease in raw material costs, particularly sugar prices, which have dropped by 13.7% year-on-year [4][10] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6.29, RMB 8.41, and RMB 10.64 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 16.14 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.11 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 43.34% and 30.77% respectively [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring multi-category development to cultivate new growth points, with a strong focus on the functional beverage market [3][5] - The company’s channel inventory is managed effectively, maintaining a reasonable and low level, which supports sales momentum [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.41 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 24.97 by 2025 [6][10] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 109.203 billion, with a closing price of RMB 210.00 as of October 9, 2023 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report Q3 revenue between 4.53 billion to 4.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 42% to 52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 870 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 59% to 83% [1] - The main business is accelerating, with Q3 special drink revenue expected to account for 86% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year increase of 38% [1] - New product revenue is anticipated to contribute 14% of total revenue in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 105% [1] Revenue Analysis - The main business and new products are exceeding expectations, with significant growth driven by rapid expansion outside Guangdong province and increased distribution network [1] - The company forecasts total revenue for the first three quarters to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 47% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q3 is estimated at 19.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and scale effects [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters is expected to be between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% to 65% [1] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.85 billion, 19.90 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.7%, 25.5%, and 23.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.16 billion, 4.03 billion, and 5.01 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.9%, 27.4%, and 24.3% respectively [3]