证券研究报告 | 2025年03月11日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 优于大市 2024 年收入同比增长 41%，盈利能力提升 公司 2024 年收入同比增长 41%。东鹏饮料发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年实现收入 158.39 亿元，同比增长 40.63%，归母净利润 33.27 亿元， 同比增长 63.09%。其中四季度营收 32.81 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；归母 净利润 6.19 亿元，同比增长 61.21%。回款方面，2024 年公司销售商品 收到的现金约 204.30 亿元，同比+46.98%；其中四季度回款 64.39 亿， 同比增长 74.4%。2024 年，公司已有 3193 家经销商，销售终端网点数 量近 400 万家，实现地级市覆盖率达到 100%，东鹏饮料全国化进程稳步 推进，在能量饮料行业的份额逐年提升。 特饮仍在加速全国化，第二曲线收入占比已达 16%。分品类看，2024 年特 饮/补水啦/其他饮料收入分别为 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元，同比增长 28.49%/280.37%/103.2%，其中，补水啦通过延展口味、提高铺市率维 持高速增长；其他 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [4][10] - The product matrix of "dual engines + multiple categories" is gradually improving, with significant growth in both the Eastroc Energy Drink and the Eastroc Hydration product lines [10][11] - The company plans to expand its product offerings to include herbal teas and plant-based beverages, aligning with health trends in the industry [10] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 32.62 billion yuan [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 32.81 billion yuan, a 25.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [4][5] Product Performance - The Eastroc Energy Drink generated revenue of 133.04 billion yuan in 2024, a 28% increase year-on-year, accounting for 84.1% of total revenue [5] - The Eastroc Hydration product line achieved revenue of 14.95 billion yuan, a remarkable 280% increase year-on-year, capturing 9.5% of total revenue [5] - Other beverages contributed 10.2 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase [5] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution, key accounts, online, and other channels reached 136.1 billion, 17.4 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.3 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth in online sales [6] - The number of active distributors exceeded 3,000, with nearly 4 million active sales points, supporting the company's channel expansion strategy [6][7] Regional Performance - Revenue by region in 2024: Guangdong (4.36 billion yuan), East China (2.20 billion yuan), Central China (2.07 billion yuan), Guangxi (1.15 billion yuan), Southwest (1.72 billion yuan), and North China (1.86 billion yuan), with notable growth in North China and Southwest regions [6][7] Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [9] - The net profit margin reached 21.0%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025, with net profit also expected to grow by at least 20% [11] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 4.483 billion yuan, with an EPS of 8.62 yuan [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 262.31, compared to the last closing price of 228.95 [1][10][19] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion, up 63.09% year-on-year [3][11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 per share, totaling 1.3 billion [3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue and profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025 [10] Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 3.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%, and a net profit of 619 million, up 61.21% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall sales revenue exceeded 20 billion, marking a 47% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 44.8% for the year, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 21.0% [9][10] Product Performance - The company's flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, achieved a market share increase of 4.9 percentage points to 47.9% [4] - The new product "Brew Water" saw an extraordinary growth rate of 280%, becoming a billion-level product within two years [4] Regional Expansion - The company experienced significant growth in various regions, with the North region showing an 83.9% increase in revenue [5] - The number of active sales points grew to nearly 4 million, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company aims for revenue projections of 20.653 billion, 25.503 billion, and 30.136 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding profit targets of 4.366 billion, 5.454 billion, and 6.331 billion [11][15] - The company is also pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on the energy drink market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation in line with the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with operating income expected to rise from 15,838.85 million in 2024 to 30,579.52 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.10% [5]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 3,326.43 million in 2024 to 6,665.50 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, projected to remain around 45.80% from 2026 to 2027, suggesting effective cost management [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 43.27% in 2024 to 27.50% in 2027, reflecting a potential increase in equity base due to retained earnings [5]. Financial Summary Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 22,676.30 million in 2024 to 47,275.73 million by 2027, indicating robust asset accumulation [4]. - Current liabilities are expected to increase from 14,845.04 million in 2024 to 22,893.14 million in 2027, which may impact liquidity ratios [4]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to decrease from 5,789.41 million in 2024 to 4,634.76 million in 2025, before recovering to 8,473.49 million by 2027 [4]. - The net cash increase is projected to rise significantly from 453.09 million in 2024 to 7,652.03 million in 2027, indicating improved cash management [4]. Income Statement - The operating profit is expected to grow from 4,144.77 million in 2024 to 8,229.02 million in 2027, showcasing strong operational efficiency [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 6.40 in 2024 to 12.82 in 2027, reflecting the company's profitability growth [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 17.86 in 2027, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation over time [5]. - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decline from 66.08% in 2024 to 48.72% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][10][15] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [4][10] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs, focusing on energy drinks and electrolyte beverages as its main revenue sources [9][10] - The company is experiencing a significant improvement in profit margins due to cost reductions and economies of scale, with a gross margin of 44.81% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.603 billion yuan, 25.653 billion yuan, and 30.722 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 30.1%, 24.5%, and 19.8% [7][10] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.390 billion yuan, 5.537 billion yuan, and 6.774 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 26.1%, and 22.4% [7][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 43.4% in 2025, 42.1% in 2026, and 40.1% in 2027 [13] Market and Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on a national expansion strategy, with significant revenue growth in regions such as North China and Southwest China, achieving year-on-year growth rates of 83.85% and 54.65% respectively [9][10] - The company’s sales channels are diversified, with significant contributions from distribution, key accounts, and online sales, showing rapid growth in the latter two [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][11]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with revenue, net profit, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items reaching 15.84 billion, 3.33 billion, and 3.26 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 41%, 63%, and 74% [1]. - The company is well-positioned for continued growth in 2025, driven by strong performance in the electrolyte water segment and a robust national distribution strategy [4]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings and market presence, with a notable increase in market share for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which now holds a 34.9% market share [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, net profit of 620 million yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 600 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 61%, and 63% respectively [1]. - The company’s revenue from energy drinks reached 13.3 billion yuan in 2024, up 28% year-on-year, while electrolyte water revenue surged by 280% to 1.5 billion yuan, increasing its share from 3% to 9% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a 7.6% decrease in unit costs in 2024, primarily due to lower prices for raw materials such as white sugar and PET packaging, contributing to a 1.75 percentage point increase in gross margin [3]. - The company’s net profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the coming years, with projected net profits of 4.45 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 33.9%, 26.4%, and 22.7% [4][5]. - The company is actively exploring international markets and diversifying its product portfolio, including the launch of new health-oriented beverages [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 158.39 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 202.85 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 40.63% [3][11] - The company has established a dual-engine growth model with its energy drink and electrolyte drink products, contributing to a strong market presence [4][8] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and international brand image [9] Company Overview - The company reported a total revenue of 158.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 63.09% [3][11] - The company’s main products, including Dongpeng Energy Drink and the newly launched electrolyte drink "Bushi La," have shown strong sales growth, with revenue contributions of 133.04 billion yuan and 14.95 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [4][5] - The company has a robust distribution network with over 3,000 distributors and nearly 4 million active retail outlets, contributing to its revenue growth [6][8] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved to 44.81% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and increased interest income from deposits [7][11] - The company expects to maintain a net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025, with projected net profits of 44.61 billion yuan [10][11] - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with revenues reaching 299.26 billion yuan by 2027 [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 158.39 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63% [3][11] - The company has established a dual-engine growth model with its energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, contributing to its rapid revenue growth [4][8] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and international brand image [9] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 228.95 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 119.1 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 5.20 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.0% [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.09% [3][11] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 44.81%, with a net profit margin of 21.00% [6][7] - The company expects to maintain a net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025 [10][11] Market Expansion - The company has seen strong growth in various regions, with revenue from Guangdong, East China, and Southwest China increasing significantly [5] - The company has over 3,000 active distributors and nearly 4 million active retail outlets, indicating robust channel expansion [6] Product Strategy - The company has upgraded its product strategy to a "dual-engine + multi-category" model, focusing on energy drinks and electrolyte beverages while expanding into tea, plant protein, and coffee drinks [8] - The company has successfully launched its electrolyte drink "补水啦," capturing a significant market share in the electrolyte beverage segment [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 260 yuan [9][34]. Core Views - The company has shown rapid national expansion and is initiating an international strategy, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024 [2][9]. - The company achieved total revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [2][9]. - The report highlights strong cash flow and a substantial increase in sales collections, indicating robust demand and inventory replenishment [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 reached 15.839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40.63% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.327 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.09% [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of approximately 2.5 yuan per share, with a total payout of around 2.3 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of about 69% [2][9]. Regional Performance Summary - Revenue from Guangdong reached 4.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, while other regions showed even higher growth rates [9][13]. - The company has expanded its online presence significantly, with a 117% year-on-year increase in online sales [9][10]. - The report notes that the company has increased its distribution network from 3.4 million to nearly 4 million outlets [9][10]. Product Performance Summary - Revenue from energy drinks reached 13.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, while electrolyte drinks saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% [9][10]. - The company has successfully launched new products, contributing to an increase in revenue share from its new offerings [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates, with projected revenues of 20.149 billion yuan in 2025 and 24.451 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.2% and 21.3% respectively [10][21]. - The report anticipates continued expansion in both domestic and international markets, with plans for an H-share issuance to support its international strategy [9][10].