Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on a multi-category product matrix to meet diverse consumer demands, with energy drinks being the main revenue source, contributing 13.304 billion yuan, accounting for 84.08% of total revenue [9]. - The company has seen a significant improvement in profit margins due to cost reductions and economies of scale, with a gross margin of 44.81% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company is expanding its national strategy, with strong growth in regions outside its home base of Guangdong, particularly in North China and Southwest regions, which saw revenue growth of 83.85% and 54.65% respectively [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.39 billion yuan, 5.537 billion yuan, and 6.774 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.44, 10.65, and 13.03 yuan [10][12]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.1, 21.5, and 17.6 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [10][12]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow to 20.603 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% [7] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, with projected net profit of 4.31 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.5% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in the energy drink sector and developing a second growth curve with its "Brewed Water" product line [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 11.26 billion yuan - 2024: 15.84 billion yuan - 2025E: 20.43 billion yuan - 2026E: 25.28 billion yuan - 2027E: 30.93 billion yuan - The year-on-year growth rates are 32.4%, 40.6%, 29.0%, 23.7%, and 22.3% respectively [6][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 2.04 billion yuan - 2024: 3.33 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.31 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.46 billion yuan - 2027E: 6.73 billion yuan - The year-on-year growth rates are 41.6%, 63.1%, 29.5%, 26.6%, and 23.3% respectively [6][9] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly, reaching 45.1% in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 228.95 yuan on March 7, 2025, with a market capitalization of 119.06 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 28, 22, and 18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the potential for recovery in valuations and consumption driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of consumption, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and improve residents' income in line with economic growth. This is expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector as it is considered a post-cycle industry [4][8]. - The report suggests that while the first quarter of 2025 may face challenges in sales for the liquor sector, improvements in the economy in the second half of the year could lead to a recovery in the industry's fundamentals and stock prices [4][8]. - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, as well as in the broader consumer goods sector, which is expected to see rational revenue and profit improvements [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 1.53%, although the sector underperformed compared to the broader market [7][30]. - The report indicates that the liquor market is experiencing a price stabilization phase, with key products showing signs of bottoming out in pricing [9][30]. Liquor Sector Insights - Current prices for major liquor brands include Moutai at 2,210 RMB per bottle and 2,255 RMB per case, with slight weekly increases. Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 930 RMB [9][18]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is facing pressure on sales, but if leading companies maintain their pricing strategies, the market may stabilize further in the second quarter [9][30]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report highlights that consumer goods companies are expected to adopt more rational operational goals, leading to improved revenue and profitability in 2025. New retail formats are anticipated to drive growth in certain product categories [4][8]. - Specific companies such as Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from supportive policies and market trends [4][8]. Key Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.33 billion RMB, reflecting a 63.1% growth [12][17]. - The company demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts from sales reaching 20.43 billion RMB, a 47% increase compared to the previous year [12][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage [1] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage continues to demonstrate high growth in performance, with total revenue and net profit for 2024 reaching 15.839 billion and 3.327 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 40.6% and 63.1% [5] - The company is expected to expand its product categories and international presence, particularly targeting the Southeast Asian market [10][11] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's performance aligns with previous forecasts, maintaining a high growth trajectory. In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 3.281 billion and 619 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 25.1% and 61.2% [5] - Gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.8% and 21.0%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] Product Growth - Revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink reached 13.304 billion yuan in 2024, up 28.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 2.9 percentage points to 48.3% [6] - The electrolyte beverage segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 1.495 billion yuan, a 280.4% increase year-on-year, and a market share rise to 6.7% in sales volume [7] Channel Development - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and online channels for 2024 was 13.607 billion, 1.744 billion, and 445 million yuan, respectively, with notable growth rates of 39.4%, 38.4%, and 117.0% [10] - The company has established a robust distribution network with 3,193 distributors and nearly 4 million retail outlets, facilitating its national expansion [10] Profit Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 8.46, 10.78, and 13.26 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 21, and 17 times [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [8] - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated revenue of 13.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, while the electrolyte drink saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% [8] - The company is expanding its market presence, with revenue from regions outside Guangdong increasing by 49.6% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue from outside Guangdong rising by 3.4 percentage points to 56.94% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 11.263 billion yuan, 2024A: 15.839 billion yuan, 2025E: 20.438 billion yuan, 2026E: 25.509 billion yuan, and 2027E: 30.259 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 32.42%, 40.63%, 29.04%, 24.81%, and 18.62% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.040 billion yuan in 2023A, 3.327 billion yuan in 2024A, 4.479 billion yuan in 2025E, 5.796 billion yuan in 2026E, and 7.076 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.60%, 63.09%, 34.64%, 29.39%, and 22.09% respectively [8] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 3.92 yuan in 2023A, 6.40 yuan in 2024A, 8.61 yuan in 2025E, 11.15 yuan in 2026E, and 13.61 yuan in 2027E [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong channel presence with nearly 4 million active terminal stores and over 300,000 ice cabinets deployed, enhancing channel quality [8] - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth rate of no less than 20% for the year, supported by a solid base in the energy drink market [8] - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with plans to explore new categories such as sugar-free tea, which is expected to contribute to future growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.327 billion RMB, up 63.1% year-on-year [1]. - The multi-category strategy has led to accelerated revenue expansion, with significant growth in various product lines, including a 280.37% increase in the "Water" category [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 4.411 billion RMB, 5.596 billion RMB, and 6.928 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. Performance Analysis - The company reported a net profit margin of 21.0% for 2024, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and scale effects [2]. - The gross profit margin for electrolyte beverages reached 29.7%, reflecting a 3.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network significantly, with nearly 400,000 active retail outlets and over 30,000 refrigerators deployed by the end of 2024 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 20.607 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 30.1% [6]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to increase from 6.397 RMB in 2024 to 8.482 RMB in 2025 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, with a projected 41.85% in 2025 [6].

2025 年 03 月 09 日 业绩持续高增，期待品类拓展与出海扩张 —东鹏饮料（605499.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-07 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 228.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1191 | | 总股本（百万股） | 520 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 520 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 180.41-286 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 366.66 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 东鹏饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《东鹏饮料（605499）：业绩延 续高增态势，出海打开增长空间》 2025-01-21 2、《东鹏饮料（605499）：业绩持 续高增验证，补水啦势能延续》 20 ...

证券研究报告 东鹏饮料 (605499 CH) 24 年圆满收官，合同负债明显增加 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 08 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 24 年营收/归母净利 158.4/33.3 亿，同比+40.6%/+63.1%；24Q4 营收/归母 净利 32.8/6.2 亿，同比+25.1%/+61.2%；符合此前业绩预告（预计 24Q4 收入同比+21%~35%；归母净利同比+15%~93%）。东鹏特饮 24 年收入 133.0 亿（同比+28.5%），百亿收入后增势仍足，电解质饮料"补水啦"24 年收入 15.0 亿（同比+280.4%），成功将消费场景从传统"困累"场景延伸 至运动补水的"汗点"场景。24 年主要原材料价格下行，叠加规模效应显 现、产能利用率维持高位，盈利能力明显提振。此外，公司合同负债明显增 加，至 24 年末，公司合同负债 47.6 亿，同比+21.5 亿。展望看，收入端， 东鹏特饮与第二曲线共振，增长势能有望延续；利润端，25 年成本红利有 望持续释放，叠加公司精准费投，利润率有望提 ...

东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司 财务报表及审计报告 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度 东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司 财务报表及审计报告 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度 | 内容 | | 页码 | | --- | --- | --- | | 审计报告 | 1 | - 5 | | 合并及母公司资产负债表 | 6 | - 7 | | 合并及母公司利润表 | 8 | - 9 | | 合并及母公司现金流量表 | 10 | - 11 | | 合并及母公司股东权益变动表 | 12 | - 15 | | 财务报表附注 | 16 | -89 | | 补充资料 | 90 | - 91 | De otte. 审计报告 德师报(审)字(25)第 P02029 号 (第1页,共5页) 东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司全体股东: 一、审计意见 我们审计了东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司(以下简称"东鹏饮料")的财务报表,包括 2024年 12 月 31 目的合并及母公司资产负债表、2024年度的合并及母公司利润表、合并及母公司现金 流量表、合并及母公司股东权益变动表以及相关财务报表附注。 我们认为,后附的财务报表在所有重大方面按照企 ...

内部控制审计报告 德师报(审)字(25)第 S00127 号 东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司全体股东: 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求,我们审计了东鹏 饮料(集团)股份有限公司(以下简称"东鹏饮料")2024年 12 月 31 日的财务报告内部控制的有效 性。 一、企业对内部控制的责任 东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司 内部控制审计报告 2024 年 12 月 31 日 Deloitte. 我们认为,东鹏饮料于 2024年 12月 31日按照《企业内部控制基本规范》和相关规定在所 有重大方面保持了有效的财务报告内部控制。 德勒华永会计师事 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》、《企业内部控制应用指引》、《企业内部控制评价指 引》的规定,建立健全和有效实施内部控制,并评价其有效性是东鹏饮料董事会的责任。 二、 注册会计师的责任 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上,对财务报告内部控制的有效性发表审计意见,并 对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 三、 内部控制的固有局限性 内部控制具有固有局限性,存在不能防止和发现错报的可能性。此外,由于情况的变化可 能导致内部控制变得不恰当,或对控 ...