Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [9][4]. - The company has made significant progress in its national expansion, with 3,193 distributors and nearly 4 million sales outlets, achieving 100% coverage in prefecture-level cities [9][4]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate total revenue of 20.170 billion yuan, 24.881 billion yuan, and 29.530 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.34%, 23.36%, and 18.68% [4][18]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 4.406 billion yuan, 5.725 billion yuan, and 7.118 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.43%, 29.93%, and 24.33% [4][18]. Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from different beverage categories was 13.304 billion yuan for functional drinks, 1.495 billion yuan for "Water La," and 1.023 billion yuan for other beverages, with respective growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.2% [10][4]. - The company’s revenue growth varied by region, with notable increases in North China (83.85%) and online sales (116.95%) [10][4]. Cost and Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, with selling, general, and administrative expenses decreasing as a percentage of revenue, contributing to improved profitability [11][4]. - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue were 16.93% for sales, 2.69% for management, and -1.20% for financial expenses, indicating effective cost management [11][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on becoming a leading comprehensive beverage group, enhancing brand value and market competitiveness [6] - The flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has shown steady growth, capturing a 47.9% market share in China's energy drink sector, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.89 percentage points [6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.44% [4] Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, including electrolyte drinks, sugar-free tea, and large-packaged beverages, to optimize its product structure [9] - The second growth curve, "Dongpeng Water," has entered the "billion-level product" category, with a sales volume market share of 6.7%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to deepen its national and omnichannel strategies while exploring international markets, including setting up a company in Indonesia to meet local demand for high-quality soft drinks [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.456 billion yuan, 25.393 billion yuan, and 30.189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.15%, 24.13%, and 18.89% [9] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.427 billion yuan, 5.657 billion yuan, and 6.901 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.06%, 27.80%, and 21.99% [9] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 40.92% in 2025 [9]

涨跌幅比较 | 2025 年 03 月 09 日 | | --- | 评级 买入 评级变动 维持 交易数据 当前价格（元） 228.95 52 周价格区间（元） 180.41-286.00 总市值（百万） 119056.98 | 流通市值（百万） | 119056.98 | | --- | --- | | 总股本（万股） | 52001.30 | | 流通股（万股） | 52001.30 | | 130% | 东鹏饮料 | | 饮料乳品 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80% | | | | | | 30% | | | | | | -20% | | | | | | 2024-03 | 2024-06 | 2024-09 | 2024-12 | 2025-03 | | % | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 东鹏饮料 | | -2.37 | 3.60 | 67.74 | | 饮料乳品 | | 2.04 | -4.13 | 4.51 | 黄静 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 huangjing48@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 东 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [4][6] - In 2025, the company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of no less than 20%, with a focus on consolidating market presence and seeking new growth points through product expansion and overseas market entry [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 15.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to 2023 [9] - The gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and economies of scale [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.0%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Performance - The energy drink segment saw a revenue increase of 28.7% in 2024, with sales volume up 29.3% [5] - The electrolyte water segment experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 280.4%, with sales volume increasing by 279.8% [5] - Regional performance showed significant growth, with the East China market growing by 57.2% and the North China market by 83.8% [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is adjusted to 3.996 billion yuan, with further projections of 4.757 billion yuan in 2026 and 5.210 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.68 yuan for 2025, 9.15 yuan for 2026, and 10.02 yuan for 2027 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 40.63% and 63.09% respectively [1][3]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025, with specific expectations for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, to maintain steady growth [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its capital strength and international brand image by issuing H shares and distributing a cash dividend of 1.3 billion yuan to shareholders [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink, Electrolyte Water, and other beverages of 13.30 billion yuan, 1.50 billion yuan, and 1.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.19% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 44.81% and 21.00% respectively, with a notable decrease in sales and management expense ratios [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 20.61 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.50 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 30.11% and 35.29% respectively [4][11]. Market Position - Dongpeng Special Drink holds a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, with a sales revenue share of 34.9%, maintaining a strong position in the market [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 212 new distributors, bringing the total to 3,193, and increasing active terminal points to nearly 4 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with new product launches in the health beverage segment, including herbal teas and plant-based drinks [2][3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 30%, 25%, and 23% respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance continues to show strong growth, driven by the release of platform efficiencies and sustained high revenue growth [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 20.339 billion yuan in 2025, 24.666 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.840 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 28.41%, 21.28%, and 20.98% [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue sources include the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which generated 13.304 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 28.49%, accounting for 84.08% of total revenue [6][8]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, achieving 1.495 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable increase of 280.37% [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [8]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink maintained its leading market share in China's energy drink market, with sales volume share increasing from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with revenue from distributors, key accounts, and online channels growing by 37.28%, 57.59%, and 116.95% respectively [6][8]. - The number of active distributors increased to 3,193, a growth of 7.11%, with the average revenue per distributor rising to 4.26 million yuan, up 28.16% [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 6.40 yuan in 2024, 8.41 yuan in 2025, and 10.27 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth in profitability [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 22.30 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [4][8]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to open new growth avenues [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on becoming a leading comprehensive beverage group, enhancing brand value and market competitiveness [6] - The flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has shown steady growth, capturing a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, marking a 4.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.839 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, reflecting a 2.89 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.789 billion yuan, a 76.44% increase year-on-year [4] Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings into electrolyte drinks, sugar-free tea, and large-packaged beverages, which supports product structure optimization [9] - The second growth curve, "Dongpeng Water," has entered the "billion-level product" category, with a sales volume share of 6.7%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to deepen its national and omnichannel strategies while exploring international markets, including establishing a presence in Indonesia [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.456 billion yuan, 25.393 billion yuan, and 30.189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.15%, 24.13%, and 18.89% [9] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.427 billion yuan, 5.657 billion yuan, and 6.901 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.06%, 27.80%, and 21.99% [9] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 26.9X for 2025, decreasing to 17.3X by 2027 [9]

东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 2024 年收入高增，2025 年稳中求进 2025 年 03 月 11 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 226.67 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 298.06/176.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.65 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 东鹏饮料 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年收入高增，新品亮眼—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.1.23 《开局良好，新品可期—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.23 《2023 年高速增长，2024 年势头良好 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.4.17 食品饮料/饮料乳品 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set for the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 40.63% and 63.09% respectively [1][4]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025, with specific expectations for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, to continue stable growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue breakdown includes 13.30 billion yuan from Dongpeng Special Drink, 1.50 billion yuan from electrolyte water, and 1.02 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.19% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 44.81%, and the net margin reached 21.00%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points respectively [2][4]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink holds a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, with a sales revenue share of 34.9%, marking an increase of 4.9 and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, adding 212 new distributors, bringing the total to 3,193, and increasing active terminal points to nearly 4 million [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 23% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% for the same years [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.65 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [9][4] - The company is expanding its national presence in the energy drink sector, with a second revenue curve accounting for 16% of total revenue [10][4] - Cost optimization and scale effects have significantly improved profitability, with gross and net profit margins reaching 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, in 2024 [11][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, which is a 63.09% increase [9][4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 32.81 billion yuan, up 25.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, increasing by 61.21% [9][4] - Cash received from sales in 2024 was approximately 204.30 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.98% increase [9][4] Product Segmentation - Revenue from different beverage categories in 2024 was 13.304 billion yuan from functional drinks, 1.495 billion yuan from "Water", and 1.023 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.2% [10][4] - The company has achieved a 100% coverage rate in prefecture-level cities, with nearly 4 million sales outlets and 3,193 distributors [9][4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11][4] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreased to 16.93%, 2.69%, and -1.20%, respectively, benefiting from scale effects from high-growth products [11][4] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 201.70 billion yuan, 248.81 billion yuan, and 295.30 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.34%, 23.36%, and 18.68% [4][17] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 44.06 billion yuan, 57.25 billion yuan, and 71.18 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.43%, 29.93%, and 24.33% [4][17]