上一轮锂电周期的价格和 股价是如何演绎 2025-12-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 联系人 王晓振 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂持续，材料依次 02 股价复盘：景气周期看弹性，中期格局为先 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂 持续，材料依次 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 复盘丨6F：20Q4-22Q1大涨，报表有长单平滑 ➢ 上一轮6F从2020年中的7万开始上涨，2020年底散单价格达到10-12万；2021年8月底在碳酸锂温和上涨至10万的背景下，6F散单大 幅上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector expected to grow at an impressive rate of 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and upstream materials, highlighting the need for a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover topics such as lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery key electrolyte materials, and high-performance in-situ polymerized electrolytes [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in promoting their brand at the event [16].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "dual increase in volume and price + technological leap" pattern [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector projected to grow at 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery key electrolyte materials, and high-performance in-situ polymer electrolytes [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee is set at 2800 yuan per person, with limited free attendance available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in participating in the event [16].

摘要 到2035年，储能市场有望撬动2000万吨钠电正极材料需求。 白厚善表示，今年136号文明确储能不再强制配储，开始依靠市场公平交易定价。该政策的出台，是今年储能市场爆发与电池供不应求的基本原因。 从电池行业来看，储能大爆发主要来自三个核心原因。 高工产研（GGII）数据显示，今年前三季度，储能电池合计出货达430GWh，已全面超过2024年全年的出货总量。储能市场带动锂电池需求高涨，带动材 料需求。 其中，作为三元材料头部企业的容百科技，已从单一的三元材料企业，转型为一家平台型的多技术路线、多材料品种的体系化公司。 此外，容百科技还在建立一个体系化、全球化的商业模式，通过打造全球制造体系、全球供应链体系、全球营销网络，以平台赋能业务的快速发展。 在高工锂电年会上，容百科技董事长兼总裁白厚善介绍，转型为平台型材料企业的容百科技，首先是一个产业投资运营平台，包含三元、钠电、磷酸锰铁 锂、磷酸铁锂等材料领域。 在钠电领域，容百科技近期与宁德时代签订了钠电正极材料协议，宁德时代将容百科技作为其钠电正极粉料第一供应商，并承诺每年从容百科技的采购量 不低于宁德时代总采购量的60%。 订单与产能共振，容百科技6000 ...

摘要 到2035年，储能市场有望撬动2000万吨钠电正极材料需求。 高工产研（ GGII ）数据显示，今年前三季度，储能电池合计出货达 430GWh ，已全面超过 2024 年全年的出货总量。储能市场带动锂电池需求高 涨，带动材料需求。 其中，作为三元材料头部企业的 容百科技 ， 已从 单一的三元材料企业，转型为一家平台型的多技术路线、多材料品种的体系化公司。 此外，容百科技还在建立一个体系化、全球化的商业模式，通过打造全球制造体系、全球供应链体系、全球营销网络，以平台赋能业务的快速发展。 在高工锂电年会上， 容百科技董事长兼总裁白厚善 介绍，转型为平台型材料企业的容百科技，首先是一个产业投资运营平台，包含三元、钠电、磷酸 锰铁锂、磷酸铁锂等材料领域 。 在钠电领域 ， 容百科技近期与宁德时代签订了钠电正极材料协议，宁德时代将容百科技作为其钠电正极粉料第一供应商 ，并承诺每年从容百科技的 采购量不低于宁德时代总采购量的 60% 。 白厚善还判断，未来 3-5 年能源奇点时代即将 来临。 容百展望储能：钠电大有可为 订单与产能共振 ，容百科技 6000 吨聚阴离子正极材料建设项目已于今年 7 月在湖北仙桃正式开 ...

Core Insights - The news highlights significant contracts and collaborations in the renewable energy and battery materials sectors, indicating strong growth and strategic partnerships among companies in these industries. Group 1: Major Contracts and Collaborations - Daikin Heavy Industries signed a contract for a European offshore wind farm project worth approximately 1.339 billion RMB, representing about 35.41% of its audited revenue for 2024, with delivery scheduled for 2027 [2][3]. - Longpan Technology entered a supplementary agreement with Chuaneng New Energy, with total sales exceeding 45 billion RMB for 130,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from 2025 to 2030 [5]. - Rongbai Technology became the primary supplier of sodium battery cathode powder for CATL, with a commitment to supply at least 60% of CATL's total procurement volume annually [7]. Group 2: Innovations and Intellectual Property - Tianli Lithium Energy obtained a patent for lithium-ion battery cathode sheets and their preparation methods, enhancing its intellectual property portfolio in the battery materials sector [9]. - Haike New Source signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xianghe Kunlun New Energy Materials, involving the purchase of 596,200 tons of electrolyte solvent, valued at over 3 billion RMB [11]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Haibo Sichuang established a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL, ensuring a cumulative procurement of at least 200 GWh of electricity from 2026 to 2028, fostering a long-term partnership [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The sodium-ion battery industry is transitioning from "industrialization year" to "scale application year" in 2025, with significant growth expected in various applications such as energy storage, start-stop systems, two-wheeled vehicles, and mid-low range electric vehicles [5][37] - The average price of sodium battery cells in 2025 is projected to be 0.52 yuan/Wh, expected to drop to 0.25 yuan/Wh by 2030 [5][37] - The global sodium battery market is anticipated to reach a scale of 1,051 GWh by 2030, with substantial contributions from energy storage and automotive sectors [5][39][40] Summary by Sections 1. Sodium-Ion Battery Material Segments - Key materials for sodium-ion batteries include layered oxides, polyanions, and Prussian blue, with polyanions expected to dominate the market by 2030 [5][16][51] - The production process for sodium-ion batteries is similar to that of lithium-ion batteries, with specific adjustments in material handling and processing [5][33][34] 2. Market Application Potential - The energy storage sector shows immense potential for sodium batteries, particularly in large-scale storage systems due to their long cycle life and safety features [5][37] - In the automotive sector, sodium batteries are expected to dominate the A00/A0 class microcars and economical family cars, with a projected market size of 410 GWh by 2030 [5][40][41] 3. Material Shipment Forecasts - For 2025, the total shipment of sodium battery positive materials is expected to reach 15,000 tons, with polyanion materials surpassing layered oxides in shipment volume [5][51] - The shipment of sodium battery negative materials is projected to be 141.9 million tons by 2030, with hard carbon remaining the mainstream choice [5][54] - The sodium battery electrolyte market is expected to see a shipment of 157.7 million tons by 2030, with prices decreasing from 28,000 yuan/ton in 2025 to 15,000 yuan/ton by 2030 [5][58] 4. Key Company Developments - CATL launched its sodium battery products in 2025, achieving energy densities of 175 Wh/kg and over 10,000 cycles, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [5][61] - BYD reported a sodium battery cell capacity of 200 Ah and a cycle life exceeding 10,000 cycles, showcasing superior performance compared to existing lithium batteries [5][64] - Transart Technology is expanding its sodium battery production capacity, targeting applications in electric two-wheelers and other sectors [5][66] - Weike Technology is focusing on the development and production of sodium battery products, emphasizing their application in energy storage and start-stop systems [5][67]

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 02 日 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心能耗和功率提升推动供电架构革新， SST 市场空间广阔》2025-11-26 《储能锂电需求向好，锂电材料价格温和抬升》 2025-11-25 《10 月光伏出口环比下滑，储能需求旺盛》 2025-11-25 《动力和储能电池需求强劲，原材料和电芯价 格明显回升》2025-11-19 《电新行业 2025Q3 公募基金持仓分析》 2025-11-19 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 行业及产业 动力和储能锂电需求向好，锂电材料价 格涨跌互现 ——锂电行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：10 月份锂电行业排产超预期。2025 年 1-10 月，国内电池和磷酸铁锂正极材料产量 明显高于 2024 年同期。2025 年 10 月，国内电池产量 ...

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a significant growth wave in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026. The energy storage sector is anticipated to grow even faster at 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the production of battery cells and key materials, highlighting the importance of ensuring a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics of Discussion - The conference will feature discussions on lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in key electrolyte materials for batteries, and the development of high-performance polymer electrolytes [9][10]. - Topics will also include the industrialization of high-nickel materials in solid-state batteries and the development of sodium-ion battery materials [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Costs - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is focusing on regulating the competitive order in the power and energy storage battery industry to promote high-quality development [1][2] Group 1: Industry Meeting Insights - A meeting was held by MIIT to discuss the power and energy storage battery industry, with participation from 12 key industry representatives [1] - Notable attendees included leaders from major companies such as BYD, CATL, and others, who shared their operational challenges and suggestions [1] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Focus - MIIT's Minister Li Lecheng emphasized the need for targeted policies to address irrational competition and enhance capacity monitoring and quality supervision [2] - The ministry aims to combat intellectual property violations and guide companies in capacity planning and international expansion [2] Group 3: Industry Development Strategy - Companies are encouraged to foster entrepreneurial spirit, resist irrational competition, and maintain a healthy market environment [2] - Emphasis on innovation and increased R&D investment to strengthen core competitiveness and enhance collaboration within the industry chain [2] - MIIT plans to develop the "14th Five-Year" industrial development plan, focusing on technological innovation and modern governance for high-quality industry growth [2]