- The report utilizes the Heston model to calculate implied volatility for near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[6] - Positive signals appeared 3052 times from July 14 to July 18, with an average future high-point success rate of 68.64%. Negative signals appeared 3426 times, with an average future low-point success rate of 27.06%[10] - The broad-based timing strategy signals indicate "bullish" for indices such as ChiNext Index, SSE 50, Wind Microcap Index, Hang Seng Equal Weight Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng Hong Kong 35, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Financials, Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 100[12] - The industry timing strategy is constructed using the scissors difference ratio of long-short signals for industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish signals appear on a given day, the scissors difference value and ratio are set to zero. The model outperformed all respective industry indices historically, demonstrating excellent backtesting results[13] - Industry timing strategy signals show "bullish" for sectors such as building materials, light manufacturing, home appliances, textiles and apparel, non-ferrous metals, power and utilities, steel, consumer services, transportation, coal, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, and petrochemicals[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [12] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is expected to significantly benefit the engineering machinery sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the highest investment project in a single country [5][6] - The project will require a high degree of mechanization, with a projected demand for engineering machinery equipment amounting to about 120 billion yuan, which is estimated to be 10% of the total investment [5][6] - The geological conditions favor the use of tunnel boring machines (TBM), leading to an expected increase in the proportion of TBM construction methods [4][5] Summary by Sections General Engineering Machinery - General engineering machinery such as excavators, cranes, concrete machinery, and aerial work platforms will see increased demand due to the project's construction cycle and local conditions [4] - The demand for larger and electric equipment is anticipated to be higher, reflecting greater profitability for companies [4] Tunnel Boring Machinery - The project will utilize TBM and other drilling equipment, with expectations of more extensive tunnel construction compared to previous projects [4][5] - The average length of tunnels in similar projects has been noted to be around 16.7 kilometers, with the Yarlung Zangbo project expected to have even longer tunnels [4][5] Large Cable Cranes - Large cable cranes will be essential for transporting concrete and installing metal structures in the challenging mountainous terrain [4] Key Beneficiaries - Core companies to focus on include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and others for general engineering machinery; China Railway Engineering Corporation and others for tunnel boring machinery; and Farlantech for cable cranes [6]

证券代码：688425 证券简称：铁建重工 公告编号：2025-030 中国铁建重工集团股份有限公司 2025 年半年度重大合同签约中标公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 单位：万元 币种：人民币 序号 业务类型 2025 年 1-6 月 2024 年 1-6 月 同比增减 1 隧道掘进机业务 419,868.67 475,501.73 -11.70% 2 特种专业装备业务 117,342.99 125,111.16 -6.21% 3 轨道交通设备业务 235,500.77 148,472.71 58.62% 合计 772,712.43 749,085.60 3.15% 二、2025 年 4-6 月重大合同签约/中标情况 单位：万元 币种：人民币 一、2025 年半年度新签合同/中标情况 （一）按业务类型统计 （二）按地区分布统计 单位：万元 币种：人民币 | 地区分布 | 2025 年 1-6 | 月 | 2024 年 1-6 | 月 | 同比增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index rose by 2.07%, closing at 1054.20 points, with a total trading volume of 4.485 billion shares and a turnover of 151.892 billion yuan, resulting in an average turnover rate of 2.47% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 401 stocks closed higher, with 11 stocks increasing by over 10% and 40 stocks rising between 5% and 10%. Conversely, 185 stocks closed lower, with 1 stock declining by over 10% [1] Turnover Rate Analysis - The distribution of turnover rates shows that 22 stocks had a turnover rate between 10% and 20%, 91 stocks between 5% and 10%, 119 stocks between 3% and 5%, 289 stocks between 1% and 3%, and 68 stocks had a turnover rate of less than 1% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was Xinyuren, which closed down by 5.16% with a turnover rate of 19.52% and a transaction amount of 317 million yuan. Other notable stocks included Saifen Technology and Qingyun Technology, with turnover rates of 16.87% and 15.62%, respectively [1] Sector Performance - In terms of industry, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest number of stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, totaling 32 stocks, followed by the electronics and computer sectors with 27 and 20 stocks, respectively [2] - Among high turnover stocks, 62 experienced net inflows of main funds, with the highest net inflows recorded for Yuncong Technology, Youkede, and Gaomei Shares, amounting to 118 million yuan, 88.645 million yuan, and 73.8116 million yuan, respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 78 high turnover stocks received net purchases from leveraged funds, with notable increases in financing balances for Tiejian Heavy Industry, Shangwei New Materials, and Shijia Photon, which saw increases of 356 million yuan, 277 million yuan, and 218 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks such as Jinchengzi, Fuliwang, and Zhongke Lanyun experienced significant decreases in financing balances, with reductions of 30.322 million yuan, 27.8513 million yuan, and 25.3532 million yuan, respectively [2] Earnings Reports - Among high turnover stocks, one company reported a net profit increase of 2147.93%, while another company announced a half-year performance report with a net profit increase of 50.89% [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total of 7.727 billion yuan in new contracts signed in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.15% [1] Contract Breakdown - The tunneling machine business secured new contracts worth 4.199 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 11.70% [1] - The special professional equipment business achieved new contracts totaling 1.173 billion yuan, down 6.21% year-on-year [1] - The rail transit equipment business saw new contracts amounting to 2.355 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 58.62% [1] Domestic and International Contracts - New contracts signed domestically reached 5.888 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.30% [1] - New contracts signed internationally totaled 1.839 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 14.57% [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% on July 25, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the electronics and computer sectors, which increased by 1.37% and 1.26% respectively [1] - The construction decoration and building materials sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 2.06% and 1.69% respectively [1] - The machinery equipment sector also saw a decrease of 0.42% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets was 49.376 billion yuan, with only 4 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 2.924 billion yuan, while the electronics sector followed with a net inflow of 2.348 billion yuan [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector faced the largest net outflow, totaling 6.911 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with a net outflow of 5.773 billion yuan [1] Machinery Equipment Sector Performance - The machinery equipment sector saw a net outflow of 5.476 billion yuan, with 530 stocks in the sector; 284 stocks rose while 236 fell [2] - Among the stocks with net inflows, Shanghai Mechanical had the highest inflow of 153 million yuan, followed by Taijia Co. and New Times with inflows of 122 million yuan and 96.6 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included China Railway Industry, which saw an outflow of 814 million yuan, followed by Shanhe Intelligent and Iron Construction Heavy Industry with outflows of 568 million yuan and 356 million yuan respectively [3]

Market Performance - The pumped storage concept sector declined by 2.55%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of July 25 [1] - Within the sector, Deep Water Institute hit a 20% limit down, while Su Bote also reached the limit down, with other notable declines from China Railway Construction, Guandong Energy, and Dongfang Electric [1] - Conversely, eight stocks within the sector saw price increases, with Shenling Environment, Siyuan Electric, and Chuanrun Co. rising by 3.07%, 2.91%, and 2.89% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The pumped storage concept sector experienced a net outflow of 5.311 billion yuan, with 51 stocks seeing net outflows and 9 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in outflows [2] - China Power Construction led the outflows with a net outflow of 2.377 billion yuan, followed by China Railway Industry, Iron Construction Heavy Industry, and Dongfang Electric with net outflows of 814 million yuan, 357 million yuan, and 295 million yuan respectively [2] - Stocks with the highest net inflows included Chuanrun Co., Shenling Environment, and Xiangdian Co., with net inflows of 57.5708 million yuan, 32.9953 million yuan, and 22.0085 million yuan respectively [2] Stock Performance - The top stocks with significant net outflows in the pumped storage concept included China Power Construction (-3.09%), China Railway Industry (-5.00%), Iron Construction Heavy Industry (-14.90%), and Dongfang Electric (-9.75%) [3] - Other notable declines included Su Bote (-10.01%) and Guandong Energy (-7.69%) [3] - Stocks with positive performance included Siyuan Electric (+2.91%) and Shenling Environment (+3.07%) [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The financing balance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) has increased for nine consecutive trading days, indicating a growing interest from investors in this segment of the market [1][2]. Financing Balance Overview - As of July 24, the total margin financing balance on the STAR Market reached 166.597 billion yuan, an increase of 604 million yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The financing balance of 432 stocks exceeded 100 million yuan, with 17 stocks having balances over 1 billion yuan [1]. Stocks with Significant Financing Inflows - The stocks with the highest net financing inflows include: - 铁建重工 (China Railway Construction Heavy Industry) with a net inflow of 299 million yuan and a financing balance of 700 million yuan, experiencing an 8.43% increase in stock price [2]. - 博瑞医药 (Borui Pharmaceutical) with a net inflow of 106 million yuan and a financing balance of 1.768 billion yuan, with a stock price increase of 5.95% [2]. - 中控技术 (Zhongkong Technology) with a net inflow of 92.524 million yuan and a financing balance of 2.042 billion yuan, with a stock price increase of 2.41% [2]. Sector Performance - The sectors attracting the most financing interest include electronics, biomedicine, and power equipment, with 23, 10, and 10 stocks respectively [2]. - The average increase in stock prices for stocks with net inflows exceeding 10 million yuan was 1.03%, with notable gainers including 统联精密 (Tonglian Precision) at 19.99% and 铁建重工 (China Railway Construction Heavy Industry) at 8.43% [2]. Financing Balance as a Percentage of Market Capitalization - The average financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for stocks with significant net inflows is 3.86%, with 纬德信息 (Weide Information) having the highest ratio at 8.55% [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market has been rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points for the first time since January 2022, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.5% [1] - The Yajiang hydropower concept has seen a significant increase of nearly 28% this week, with individual stocks like Hengli Drilling Tools experiencing a cumulative rise of over 185% [2] - Analysts suggest that as the market continues to evolve, undervalued stocks that have not yet surged may attract new capital, increasing their chances of outperforming the market [1][2] Group 2 - The Yajiang hydropower project is expected to boost demand for cement, benefiting regional cement companies, particularly in the southwest [3] - Key construction phases of the hydropower project will drive new demand for engineering machinery and related materials, with estimated investment in turbines and generators valued between 535 billion and 954 billion yuan [3][4] - Industries likely to benefit from the Yajiang hydropower project include construction materials, civil explosives, engineering machinery, and power grid equipment [4] Group 3 - The Yajiang hydropower concept is transitioning from expectation to reality, with upcoming catalysts likely to include bidding and performance releases [5] - Among the stocks with strong earnings growth and low valuations, 11 stocks in the power and machinery sectors have seen net profits increase by over 30% year-on-year, with 8 of them having low price-to-earnings ratios [5] - Companies like Zoomlion and Liugong, which are leaders in engineering machinery, have received attention from over 20 rating agencies, indicating strong institutional interest [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% on July 24, with 28 out of 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the beauty care and non-ferrous metals sectors, which increased by 3.10% and 2.78% respectively [1] - The mechanical equipment sector saw an increase of 1.13% [1] - The banking, communication, and public utilities sectors were the worst performers, declining by 1.42%, 0.15%, and 0.09% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 8.913 billion yuan, with 16 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector had the highest net inflow of 7.736 billion yuan, followed by the non-bank financial sector with a net inflow of 5.644 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.06% [1] - Conversely, 15 sectors experienced net outflows, with the construction decoration sector leading with a net outflow of 3.417 billion yuan, followed by the mechanical equipment sector with a net outflow of 2.737 billion yuan [1] Mechanical Equipment Sector Performance - In the mechanical equipment sector, 404 out of 530 stocks rose, with 6 hitting the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Dongmu Co., Ltd. (1.87 billion yuan), Dazhu CNC (1.70 billion yuan), and China Railway Industry (1.65 billion yuan) [2] - The sector had a total net outflow of 2.737 billion yuan, with 15 stocks experiencing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by China Railway Construction (8.74 billion yuan), Snowman Group (4.95 billion yuan), and Guoji Heavy Industry (4.81 billion yuan) [2][3] Top Gainers in Mechanical Equipment Sector - The top gainers in the mechanical equipment sector included: - Dongmu Co., Ltd. with a 10.00% increase and a turnover rate of 4.76% [2] - Dazhu CNC with a 17.84% increase and a turnover rate of 31.68% [2] - China Railway Industry with a 9.99% increase and a turnover rate of 8.13% [2] Top Losers in Mechanical Equipment Sector - The top losers in the mechanical equipment sector included: - China Railway Construction with an 8.43% decrease and a turnover rate of 12.66% [3] - Snowman Group with a 6.21% decrease and a turnover rate of 45.84% [3] - Guoji Heavy Industry with a 7.82% decrease and a turnover rate of 8.27% [3]