股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

Summary of SMIC (0981.HK) 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Revenue**: US$2.2 billion, representing a **16% YoY increase** and a **2% QoQ decrease**. This figure was **4% higher than Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe)** and **2% above Bloomberg consensus** [1][2] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: 20.4%, slightly above management's guidance and expectations, but down from **22.5% in 1Q25** and **13.9% in 2Q24** [1][2] - **Operating Profit**: US$151 million, which is **20% lower than GSe** and **13% below consensus estimates** [2] - **Net Profit**: US$132 million, a **30% QoQ decline** and **19% YoY decline**, but higher than GSe's estimate of US$105 million [2] - **Capex**: Increased to **US$1.9 billion** in 2Q25 from **US$1.4 billion** in 1Q25 [1] Capacity and Utilization - **Capacity**: Increased to **991k wpm (8'' equivalent)** in 2Q25, up from **973k wpm** in 1Q25 [2] - **Utilization Rate (UT)**: Improved to **92.5%** in 2Q25 from **89.6%** in 1Q25 [1][2] 3Q25 Guidance - **Revenue Guidance**: Expected to increase by **5% to 7% QoQ**, aligning with GSe and consensus estimates [1][6] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Projected to be between **18% and 20%**, slightly lower than GSe (20.6%) and consensus (21.1%) [1][6] Investment Thesis - **Long-term Growth**: Positive outlook on SMIC's growth driven by increasing demand from local fabless customers. Anticipated recovery in margins due to improved UT rates [1][7] - **Valuation**: Shares are considered attractively valued as they trade below historical average P/E ratios. A **Buy rating** is maintained for SMIC [1][8] Price Target and Risks - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$63.70 for H-shares and Rmb160.00 for A-shares, based on a **36x 2028E P/E** and a **273% premium** over H-shares [8][11] - **Key Risks**: 1. Weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and consumer electronics [9] 2. Slower-than-expected product diversification and capacity expansions [9] 3. Restricted access to certain equipment/material supply due to being on the US BIS Entity List [10] Conclusion - SMIC's performance in 2Q25 shows resilience with slight beats in revenue and gross margin despite a decline in net profit. The company is positioned for growth in the upcoming quarters, supported by local demand and capacity improvements. The investment outlook remains positive with a maintained Buy rating.

转自：智通财经 【港股午评：恒生科技指数跌0.99% 中芯国际跌5.57%】智通财经8月8日电，港股午间收盘，恒指收跌 0.66%，科指收跌0.99%。个股方面，长飞光纤光缆涨超11%，东方甄选涨超8%。中芯国际跌5.57%，公 司Q2净利润同比下降19%。 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices decline in the morning session, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping as much as 1.3% and closing down 0.99% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.66% and 0.61% respectively, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 25,000-point mark again [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks exhibited weak performance, with Alibaba down 1.7%, Baidu and Tencent dropping over 1%, and Xiaomi, JD.com, and Meituan seeing declines within 0.6% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also faced declines, with SMIC falling by 5.57%, and other semiconductor companies like Hongguang Semiconductor and Huahong Semiconductor following suit [1] - Gaming stocks led by Wynn Macau and MGM China fell after earnings reports, while paper stocks that had previously surged on policy support experienced a pullback [1] - Biopharmaceutical stocks mostly declined, with Hutchison China MediTech dropping over 15%, leading the decline in innovative drug stocks [1] Commodity and Other Stocks - In contrast, gold stocks rose as New York gold futures reached a historical high, with Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tongguan Gold all increasing by over 2% [1] - Heavy machinery stocks saw a general rise, with excavator sales in July increasing by over 25% year-on-year, and Zoomlion rising by over 4% [1] - Power, building materials, and high-speed rail infrastructure stocks mostly increased, with China Metallurgical Group rising by over 6% [1]

高盛发表研报指，中芯国际第二季收入按年增长16%，较该行及市场预期分别高出4%及2%，毛利率录 20.4%，略高于公司指引及市场预期，主要受惠于产能利用率提升至92.5%，对比首季为不足90%。第三 季集团收入指引为按季增长5%至7%，符合市场预期，毛利率维持18%至20%的指引，略低于高盛预期 的20.6%及市场预期21.1%。憧憬中国本土需求可带动长期增长，高盛维持中芯的"买入"评级，目标价 63.7港元，认为虽然定价竞争与折旧压力存在，但相信随产能利用率改善及12英寸厂量产，毛利率仍有 望逐步回升。 ...

Overall Performance - Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) reported a revenue of $2.2 billion for Q2 2025, slightly above market expectations of $2.16 billion, but a 1.7% decrease from the previous quarter, with guidance indicating a further decline of 4-6% [1][14] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 20.4%, reaching the upper limit of the guidance range (18-20%) and exceeding market expectations of 19.7% [1][4] Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to a decrease in average selling prices, despite a 4.3% increase in product shipment volume [3][17] - The average selling price per wafer decreased by 5.7%, influenced by a higher proportion of lower-priced 8-inch wafer shipments [3][17] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the smartphone segment grew by only 1.7%, significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen in the past two years, while other segments like PC and consumer electronics experienced declines [2][24] - The company maintained over 80% of its revenue from the domestic market, driven by domestic substitution trends [2][7] Expenditure and Capital Investment - Operating expenses increased, with management expenses rising by 17.6% year-on-year, primarily due to higher factory setup costs [2][31] - Capital expenditure for the quarter was $1.885 billion, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment despite weak downstream demand [2][31] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, SMIC expects revenue to increase by 5-7%, translating to $2.32-$2.36 billion, which is below market expectations of $2.37 billion [4][19] - The gross margin guidance for the next quarter is set at 18-20%, lower than the market expectation of 21.1% [4][22] Capacity Utilization and Market Trends - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 2025 was 92.5%, reflecting a slight recovery, primarily due to preemptive stocking of 8-inch wafers by customers [2][22] - The overall semiconductor market remains weak, with cautious outlooks from management regarding demand visibility in the second half of the year [7][9] Regional Revenue Distribution - The revenue from the China region accounted for 84.1% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [29][31] - The company’s revenue from the U.S. and Eurasia regions remained relatively low at 12.9% and 3%, respectively [29][31]

高盛发表研报指，中芯国际第二季收入按年增长16%，较该行及市场预期分别高出4%及2%，毛利率录 20.4%，略高于公司指引及市场预期，主要受惠于产能利用率提升至92.5%，对比首季为不足90%。第三 季集团收入指引为按季增长5%至7%，符合市场预期，毛利率维持18%至20%的指引，略低于高盛预期 的20.6%及市场预期21.1%。憧憬中国本土需求可带动长期增长，高盛维持中芯的"买入"评级，目标价 63.7港元，认为虽然定价竞争与折旧压力存在，但相信随产能利用率改善及12英寸厂量产，毛利率仍有 望逐步回升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market on August 8, 2025, highlighting the slight gains in major indices and the active sectors, particularly in hydropower, stablecoins, commercial aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and liquid cooling servers, while noting a pullback in sectors like PEEK materials, AI agents, semiconductors, and robotics [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3642.1 points, up 0.07% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11173.87 points, up 0.14% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2347.83 points, up 0.21% [3][4]. Capital Flow - Major capital inflows were observed in sectors such as machinery, electric power, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals, while outflows were noted in computer, electronics, media, food and beverage, and banking sectors [8]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Yingweike (16.56 billion), Shanhe Intelligent (13.08 billion), and Jihua Group (12.84 billion) [8]. Trading Volume - The trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 52nd consecutive trading day [9]. Sector Highlights - The hydropower sector saw notable gains, with Shanhe Intelligent hitting the daily limit, and other related stocks like Sheyan Institute and Deep Water Planning Institute also performing well [10][13]. - The electric power sector experienced a rise, with Huaguang Huaneng and Huayin Electric reaching the daily limit [13]. Stock Movements - Stocks such as Innovation Medical and Jihua Group reached their daily limit, while other stocks in the medical device sector also saw significant increases [17][21]. - The gas sector showed a short-term rise, with Hongtong Gas achieving four consecutive limits [19]. Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 40 billion yuan for the day [25]. - The RMB to USD exchange rate was adjusted down by 37 basis points, reported at 7.1382 [26].

1、整体业绩：收入&毛利率，双双下滑。中芯国际在 2025 年第二季度实现收入 22 亿美元，市场预期 21.6 亿美元，环比下滑 1.7%，指引区间环比下滑 4- 6%。 公司在 2025 年第二季度毛利率 20.4%，达到指引区间上限(18-20%)，市场一致预期(19.7%)。 本季度业绩环比下滑，主要是受到产线年度维修突发问题及设备改进的问题，以及 PC、智能家居及消费电子类下游市场需求回落的影响。 2、细观三大核心指标：收入、毛利率和产能利用率。收入端通过量价分拆，中芯国际本季度收入的下滑主要受产品均价降低的影响。 受 8 寸晶圆提前备货等因素影响，公司本季度 8 寸晶圆出货占比继续提升，结构性拉低了产品均价。公司本季度产品出货量环比增长 4.3%，而产品均价环 比下滑 5.7%。 中芯国际(00981,688981.SH) 北京时间 2025 年 8 月 7 日晚，港股盘后发布 2025 年度第二季度财报(截至 2025 年 6 月)，要点如下： 4、费用支出及资本开支：公司的经营费用主要来自于研发费用和管理费用，本季度研发费用同比持平，而管理费用同比增长 17.6%，是受工厂开办相关费 用增加影 ...

8月7日晚间，中芯国际正式对外发布了其第二季度财报。财报数据显示，今年二季度，中芯国际整体实 现销售收入22.09亿美元，与上一季度相比环比下降1.7%；毛利率为20.4%，环比下降了2.1个百分点； 不过，产能利用率表现亮眼，达到92.5%，环比增长了2.9个百分点。 或受此影响，业绩发布后的8月8日，中芯国际股价表现不佳，中芯国际A股下跌超3%，中芯国际H股下 跌超5%。 回顾此前一季报，中芯国际给出的二季度收入指引为环比下降4%到6%。对比之下，此次公布的二季度 实际业绩表现优于预期指引，展现出一定的韧性。但是似乎仍然不足投资者预期。 深入剖析财报内容可以发现，中芯国际二季度销售收入较同期实现增长，主要得益于中国区市场的强劲 表现以及消费电子领域的蓬勃发展。而销售收入较同期出现下降，则是因为一季度中芯国际新建产线遭 遇突发事件，引发了生产性波动，且这一影响延续至第二季度，进而导致收入及毛利率环比下降。 从收入地区分布来看，2025年二季度中芯国际在中国区、美国区和欧亚区的收入占比分别为84.1%、 12.9%和3.0%。与去年同期相比，中国区占比提升了3.8个百分点，美国区占比下跌了3.1个百分点，欧 ...