Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and mature process expansion [5]. - The company has achieved a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly revenues exceeding $2 billion for three consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in fundamentals [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of manufacturing and the increasing demand for advanced chips due to geopolitical factors [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.860 billion, and $11.998 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% [25][32]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 28%, and 13% [25][32]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 19.5%, 20%, and 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a core beneficiary of high-end chip orders as domestic IC design firms increasingly collaborate with local foundries [5]. - The advanced process capacity in mainland China is currently low, with only 1.7% of capacity at 14nm and below, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its ability to produce advanced nodes, which are critical for AI infrastructure [5][18]. Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target price of HKD 63.3 per share based on a 3x price-to-book (PB) valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [6][27].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the advanced semiconductor manufacturing industry, particularly in relation to autonomous driving and robotics, and their impact on wafer fabrication capacity [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand for Advanced Process Capacity** - The combined demand for autonomous driving and robotics is estimated at 1.65 million wafers per month, equivalent to the capacity of approximately 3.25 TSMC facilities. Domestic wafer fabs would need to increase their capacity by 37 times to meet this demand [1][5]. 2. **Comparison of Chip Types** - The die size of autonomous driving and robotics chips is similar to that of GPUs, leading to comparable capacity consumption. However, the market size for autonomous driving and robotics is significantly larger, indicating a greater demand for advanced process capacity [2][3][4]. 3. **NVIDIA's Cost Structure** - In NVIDIA's data center business, the value allocated to wafer foundry services is very low, accounting for only 2.25% of sales. The breakdown shows that HBM contributes 7.25% and packaging costs account for 5.5% [6][10]. 4. **Future Capacity Needs** - The future demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving and robotics is expected to surpass that of AI GPUs. As penetration rates increase, the demand for chips in these sectors could grow significantly, potentially exceeding tenfold [3][17][20]. 5. **Challenges for Domestic Foundries** - Domestic advanced foundries face challenges in producing high-end chips due to a lack of EUV lithography machines, leading to lower yields compared to TSMC. For instance, TSMC achieves a 50% yield with single exposure, while domestic foundries using multiple exposures see significantly reduced yields [15][16]. 6. **Market Dynamics** - The structure of customers for advanced process foundries is expected to change as the demand from autonomous driving and robotics increases. This shift will require more resources to be allocated to these emerging fields [7][22]. 7. **Investment Considerations** - Investors should focus on the expansion plans of advanced process foundries, as the demand for wafer consumption is expected to rise significantly. Companies like TSMC and SMIC, which have linear growth expansion plans, should be prioritized [23]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for robots to consume wafer capacity is substantial, with predictions suggesting a global demand for 1.51 million wafers for robotics by 2040, far exceeding the demand for autonomous driving chips [20]. - The trend of "one car, multiple chips" is becoming common in new vehicle designs, indicating a growing need for more advanced chips in automotive applications [18]. - The current consumption of wafer capacity is dominated by smartphones, computers, and tablets, but this is expected to shift as autonomous driving and robotics gain traction [21][22].

Summary of Conference Call on Domestic Computing Power Industry Chain Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic computing power chip sector, particularly focusing on companies like Cambricon and the impact of major internet firms such as ByteDance and Alibaba restarting capital expenditure tenders, indicating a positive shift in the COMPEX cycle [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The investment opportunity window for domestic computing power chips began in early July 2025, marked by the H20 exemption allowing continued sales to China and subsequent capital expenditure tenders from major internet companies [3][4]. - **Market Recovery**: The domestic computing power chip sector is recovering from a low point in July 2025, with negative factors dissipating and manufacturing yield improving, leading to a turnaround in development [1][4][5]. - **Cambricon's Position**: Cambricon is deeply tied to ByteDance, with substantial orders expected. Despite supply constraints from TSMC and SMIC, the expansion of SMIC's n+2 capacity and yield improvements present significant growth potential for Cambricon [1][6]. - **Production Capacity**: SMIC's n+2 capacity expansion is exceeding expectations, which will significantly enhance Cambricon's production capacity, with projections of 400,000 units and revenues exceeding 25 billion yuan by 2026 [2][14]. - **Future Chip Development**: Cambricon's next-generation chip, the 690, is expected to achieve 80% of NVIDIA H100's performance, potentially surpassing the Ascend 910C, marking it as the strongest domestic chip [10][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The semiconductor sector has been experiencing low sentiment, but recent developments indicate a potential turnaround, with Cambricon's stock showing resilience against negative factors [13][15]. - **Challenges and Responses**: Cambricon faces several challenges, including poor Q2 performance and supply shortages, but these issues are expected to be mitigated by SMIC's capacity expansion and yield recovery [12][13]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the domestic computing power chip industry is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by advancements in manufacturing processes and increasing demand from internet giants [8][18]. Potential Companies to Watch - Key players in the domestic computing power industry include Cambricon and Haiguang, along with foundries and packaging companies like SMIC and Hua Hong, which are crucial for the advancement of the industry [18][19]. Conclusion - The domestic computing power chip sector is poised for significant growth, driven by favorable market conditions, technological advancements, and strong demand from major internet companies, making it a compelling area for investment opportunities [1][8][15].

恒指高开0.28%，报25458.87点；恒生科技指数涨0.37%。蔚来涨近2%，中芯国际、阿里巴巴、华虹半 导体等涨超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding Hong Kong stocks has reached a historical high, driven by a significant increase in global interest in Chinese assets [1][3]. - As of the end of Q2, the total market value of Hong Kong stocks held by public funds reached 734.3 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase from the previous quarter, with the proportion of public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks rising from 36.9% to 39.8% [2]. - The actively managed equity funds specifically increased their holdings in the healthcare and financial sectors while reducing exposure in information technology and discretionary consumer sectors [2]. Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 27%, making it the best-performing major index globally, with fund managers expressing optimism about the market's future [4]. - Fund managers are particularly optimistic about structural opportunities in various sectors, including new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional industries like "AI+", overseas expansion, and smart manufacturing [4]. - The increasing allocation of public funds to Hong Kong stocks reflects a growing attractiveness of the market, with over 50% of public funds now having the ability to invest in Hong Kong stocks as of Q2 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding Hong Kong stocks has reached a historical high, reflecting a strong positive outlook for the Hong Kong market as it experiences a wave of value re-evaluation driven by global capital inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Market Performance - As of the end of Q2, actively managed equity funds held a total market value of 4,379 billion yuan in Hong Kong stocks, an increase of 6.5% from the previous quarter, with the stock allocation rising from 30.8% to 32.5% [3]. - The total market value of public funds invested in Hong Kong stocks reached 7,343 billion yuan, marking a 12.8% increase from the end of Q1 [3]. - The number of public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly, with 50.97% of public funds now having this capability as of Q2 2025 [4]. Group 2: Sector and Stock Preferences - In Q2, actively managed equity funds increased their holdings in the healthcare and financial sectors while reducing exposure to information technology and discretionary consumer sectors [3]. - Tencent has been the largest holding for two consecutive quarters, with four Hong Kong stocks appearing in the top ten holdings of public funds [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Fund managers express optimism about the future performance of the Hong Kong market, citing a clear rebound in China's macroeconomic indicators and the global competitiveness of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [6][7]. - The anticipated global interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are expected to benefit emerging markets like Hong Kong, enhancing their attractiveness to global capital [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Central Enterprise Innovation Index (000861.CSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects 100 representative listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) based on their innovation and profitability to reflect the overall performance of innovative central enterprises[8] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: All listed companies under SASAC[9] - **Step 1**: Rank the securities in the sample space by average daily trading volume over the past year and exclude the bottom 20%[9] - **Step 2**: Select the remaining securities controlled by SASAC and its subsidiaries[9] - **Step 3**: Exclude securities with negative operating cash flow in the past year and negative net profit excluding non-recurring items in the past two years[9] - **Step 4**: Calculate the innovation score for non-financial companies based on R&D expenditure, R&D personnel ratio, patent quality score, and participation in national or industry standards. For financial companies, use revenue, net profit, patent quality score, and participation in standards[9] - **Step 5**: Rank the remaining securities by innovation score and select the top 50% as innovation-themed securities[9] - **Step 6**: Calculate the quality score for non-financial companies based on ROE, net profit growth, earnings quality, and financial leverage. For financial companies, use ROE and net profit growth. Combine the quality score with the scale score (based on market cap) to get a comprehensive score[9] - **Step 7**: Select the top 100 securities by comprehensive score as index samples[9] - **Adjustment**: The index samples are adjusted semi-annually[9] - **Model Evaluation**: The index is designed to reflect the performance of innovative central enterprises, with a focus on maintaining representativeness and accuracy through regular adjustments[8][9] Model Backtesting Results - **Central Enterprise Innovation Index**: - **Cumulative Return Since Inception**: 138.08%[5][10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices**: - CSI 300: 79.25%[5] - SSE Composite Index: 83.67%[5] - CSI 500: 54.40%[5] - CSI 800: 74.09%[5] - **5-Year Cumulative Return**: 33.70%[10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices in 5 Years**: - CSI 300: 49.24%[10] - SSE Composite Index: 29.47%[10] - CSI 800: 47.94%[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Innovation Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluate the innovation capability of non-financial and financial companies based on specific indicators[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - R&D expenditure to market cap ratio (40% weight) - R&D personnel ratio (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - Revenue (40% weight) - Net profit (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the innovation score[9] Factor Name: Quality Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assess the financial quality of companies based on profitability and financial stability[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - ROE (30% weight) - Net profit growth (35% weight) - Earnings quality (25% weight) - Financial leverage (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - ROE (50% weight) - Net profit growth (50% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the quality score[9] Factor Backtesting Results - **Innovation Score**: - **Top 50% Selection**: Used to identify innovation-themed securities[9] - **Quality Score**: - **Comprehensive Score Calculation**: Combined with scale score to select top 100 securities[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronic industry, highlighting a historical high in allocation and overweight ratios for active equity funds [10][24]. Core Insights - The electronic industry saw a record allocation ratio of 19.11% in Q2 2025, with an overweight ratio of 7.73%, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors [10][24]. - The semiconductor sector is emphasized as a key area for investment, driven by domestic supply chain localization and improving fundamentals [27][28]. - AI PCB is identified as a core investment direction due to its high demand and growth potential linked to AI server deployments [18][34]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation - In Q2 2025, the allocation ratio for the electronic industry reached 19.11%, ranking first among all sectors, with a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][24]. - The electronic sector's overweight ratio also reached a historical high of 7.73%, reflecting strong institutional interest [10][24]. Sub-Industry Analysis Semiconductor - The semiconductor sector's allocation ratio was 9.53%, accounting for 53.65% of the total industry allocation, despite a decrease of 0.7 percentage points [24][27]. - Key companies in this sector include SMIC, North Huachuang, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with significant increases in their market values [27][28]. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector's allocation ratio was 4.03%, with a decrease of 0.61 percentage points, reflecting some valuation pressures due to tariff uncertainties [24][31]. - Major players include Xiaomi and Luxshare Precision, with notable growth in their market values despite the overall sector challenges [31][32]. Components - The components sector saw an increase in allocation ratio to 2.92%, with a significant rise of 1.07 percentage points, driven by AI PCB demand [24][34]. - Key companies include Shenghong Technology and Huadian, which experienced substantial growth in their market values [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI PCB, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and the Apple supply chain as key investment areas, anticipating strong growth in ASIC demand and related technologies [18][34].

公司公告汇总 截至2025年7月25日收盘，中芯国际（688981）报收于93.47元，较上周的88.51元上涨5.6%。本周，中芯国际7月25日盘中最高价报93.68元。7月21 日盘中最低价报88.04元。中芯国际当前最新总市值7464.57亿元，在半导体板块市值排名1/162，在两市A股市值排名15/5148。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总：中芯国际2021年科创板限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分第四个归属期及预留授予部分第三个归属期归属条件已成就。 (产品代码: 560800) ★ 跟踪：中证数字经济主题指数 近五日涨跌:3.33% 市盈率: 61.69倍 中芯国际集成电路制造有限公司2021年科创板限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分第四个归属期及预留授予部分第三个归属期归属条件已成就。首 次授予日为2021年7月19日，预留授予日为2021年6月21日。首次授予部分第四个归属期为2025年7月21日至2026年7月17日，预留授予部分第三个 归属期为2025年6月23日至2026年6月18日。公司层面业绩考核以2018-2020年营业收入及EBITDA均值为基数，2024年营业收入累计值较基数增长 约678. ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic wafer foundry's overall capacity utilization rate has improved, benefiting from increased demand in home appliances, automotive, and industrial sectors, which is better than previously expected [1] - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is seen as a cornerstone of the digital economy, with continued improvement in supply and demand expected in the second half of 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8%, with a gross margin of 22.5%, up 8.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was $190 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 162% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75% [2] - The increase in net profit despite only a slight revenue growth is attributed to an 8.8 percentage point year-on-year and 4.1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter increase in capacity utilization, reaching 89.6%, and a reduction in R&D expenses [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The company has raised its full-year profit forecast by 7%, expecting net profits of $740 million, $1.01 billion, and $1.28 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 50%, 37%, and 26% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.09, $0.13, and $0.16 for 2025-2027, with current H-share prices corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 50x, 37x, and 26x respectively [2]