摩根大通发布研报称，中芯国际(00981)毛利率持续承压，维持该股"减持"评级，目标价由32港元上调 至36港元，随着公司继续扩大28纳米及以下晶圆产能，未来2-3年资本支出可能仍将保持高位，该行估 计为70亿至75亿美元。短期内，该行认为2025年第四季库存去化和CIS市场竞争加剧可能会抑制利润率 和平均售价。报告指，尽管领先晶片组合有所增加，但毛利率疲软且定价持平，该行对此保持谨慎。该 行调整预期，以反映库存去化导致2025年第四季增长放缓，以及折旧成本上升导致毛利率持续承压，尽 管高端晶圆组合因良率下降而有所提升，但平均售价却没有上涨。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley maintains a "reduce" rating on SMIC (00981) due to continued pressure on gross margins, raising the target price from HKD 32 to HKD 36 [1] - The company is expected to maintain high capital expenditures of USD 7 to 7.5 billion over the next 2-3 years as it expands its 28nm and below wafer capacity [1] - Short-term challenges include inventory destocking in Q4 2025 and intensified competition in the CIS market, which may suppress profit margins and average selling prices [1] Group 2 - Despite an increase in the leading chip portfolio, gross margins remain weak and pricing is flat, leading to a cautious outlook from Morgan Stanley [1] - Adjustments to expectations reflect a slowdown in growth due to inventory destocking in Q4 2025 and rising depreciation costs, which continue to pressure gross margins [1] - Although the high-end wafer portfolio has improved due to yield declines, average selling prices have not increased [1]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are experiencing a rebound, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q2 2025, driven by high capacity utilization and domestic demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SMIC's stock rose by 3.18% to HKD 50.25, while Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 3.02% to HKD 43.66, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Both companies exceeded market expectations in revenue and gross margin due to high capacity utilization rates [1] - SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor forecast a quarterly revenue growth of 6% and 11% respectively for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The pricing environment is improving, and capacity utilization remains high, which is beneficial for both companies [1] - Despite the positive revenue outlook, the recovery of gross margins may still be a distant prospect [1] - Analysts from various firms express optimism about SMIC's leading position in domestic wafer foundry and Hua Hong Semiconductor's potential recovery due to localization trends and improvements in the industrial and automotive markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are experiencing a rebound, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q2 2025, driven by high capacity utilization and domestic demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SMIC's stock rose by 3.18% to HKD 50.25, while Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 3.02% to HKD 43.66, indicating positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] - Both SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor exceeded market expectations in revenue and gross margin due to high capacity utilization rates [1] - For Q3 2025, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor forecast revenue growth of 6% and 11% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, suggesting a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The pricing environment is improving, and capacity utilization remains high, although gross margin recovery may still be distant [1] - The trend towards domestic substitution of key semiconductor products is expected to benefit SMIC, reinforcing its leading position in the domestic wafer foundry market [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor is anticipated to experience a recovery due to improvements in the domestic market and the industrial and automotive sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry maintains high prosperity, with a positive outlook on opportunities in analog and storage sectors [2][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the electronics sector increased by 1.65%. Among sub-industries, consumer electronics surged by 4.27%, and components fell by 1.59%. Concurrently, the Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index rose by 1.17%, 2.72%, and 2.90%, respectively [2][3] Semiconductor Industry Insights - The supply chain has recently revised upward the shipment expectations for NVIDIA's GB series products for 2026, reinforcing the high growth trend in the computing chain's performance. TSMC anticipates sustained strong AI demand and a moderate recovery in non-AI demand, raising its annual revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% to 30% [2] - SMIC and Huahong's 2Q25 utilization rates are nearing saturation, with optimistic order demand outlooks supporting the continuation of high prosperity in the semiconductor sector. The utilization rates for SMIC and Huahong in 2Q25 were 92.5% (YoY +7.3 percentage points, QoQ +2.9 percentage points) and 108.3% (YoY +10.4 percentage points, QoQ +5.6 percentage points), respectively [2][3] AI and Hardware Market Dynamics - The release of GPT-5 has significantly enhanced AI programming capabilities, leading to a market shift back towards hardware investments. Companies such as Industrial Fulian, Shengyi Technology, and others are recommended as core targets in the North American computing industry chain [2][4] Storage Market Trends - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with Kioxia reporting a 39.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in non-GAAP net profit for FY25Q1. The NAND market is expected to see a bit growth rate of around 10% in 2025, driven by normalizing inventory levels in smartphones and PCs, new smartphone releases, and strong demand from data centers [3] - Major manufacturers have announced price increases for server customers in the third quarter, with the spot market for server DDR5 prices showing an upward trend [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the consumer electronics sector include Industrial Fulian, Lens Technology, Xiaomi Group, and others. In the semiconductor sector, recommended companies include SMIC, Aojie Technology, and Huahong Semiconductor, among others [5][6]

该行测算，中芯上半年新增12英吋月产能1.9万片，预测第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能，平均售价虽高 于次季，但仍略低于首季；预测中芯2025及2026年收入分别达92.9亿和110亿美元，毛利率为20.5%和 21%。该行保持之前对公司目前的估值水平或充分反映基本面的看法，维持"中性"评级，H股目标价由 45港元微升至47港元，对应2.1倍2026年市净率。 交银国际表示，中芯国际次季业绩强于指引，收入按季降1.7%，毛利率20.4%，高于该行预期和指引上 限。该行认为驱动公司业绩好于预期的主要因素是8英吋产品的增长。管理层指引第三季收入恢复按季 增长5%至7%，而毛利率18%至20%的指引与管理层之前给出的次季指引一致。管理层提到前三季度客 户或已经提前建立库存，预计第四季急单和备货需求或放缓，但至少到10月公司产能依旧供不应求，管 理层将继续收集客户反馈以评估。 ...

摩根大通发表研究报告指，正在调整对中芯国际的预测，以考虑到公司因去库存而导致的第四财季增长 放缓，以及由于折旧成本上升和缺乏均价上升的压力，虽然高端晶圆比例上升，但产量降低令毛利持续 受压。 摩通续予中芯国际"减持"评级，目标价为36港元。该行相信，由于公司将继续扩大28纳米及以下晶圆产 能，其未来2至3年的资本开支或仍保持高位，估计达70亿至75亿美元。该行预计，公司于第四季去库存 和CIS领域的竞争加剧，短期内可能抑制毛利和均价。 ...

（原标题：财报超预期市值却跳水，中芯国际怎么了？） 作者 | 丁卯 编辑 | 黄绎达 2025年8月7日，国产晶圆代工龙头中芯国际发布了一份略超预期的二季度财务报告。 根据港股财报披露，尽管受到生产波动性和产品结构变化的影响，使得公司的收入和毛利维持下滑趋势，但幅度相对上个季度明显放缓，且远好 于公司的业绩指引和市场预期。 但市场似乎对这份略超预期的财报表现并不买账。周五当天（8月8日），中芯国际港股严重下挫，最终阴跌8.2%，同日，A股也下跌了4.3%。 那么，中芯国际此次财报的质量究竟如何？市场的担忧在哪里？目前公司是否存在高估风险？ 2025年第二季度，中芯国际实现营业收入22.1亿美元，较去年同期增长16.2%，比一季度环比下滑1.7%，环比增速高于上季度的业绩指引和市场预 期。 分产品看，二季度12英寸晶圆产品仍然是中芯国际主要的收入来源，但8英寸的贡献度在回暖。根据港股财报披露，本季度8英寸晶圆产品的收入 为4.99亿美元，环比增长6.6%，收入占比23.9%；12英寸晶圆产品收入15.9亿美元，环比下滑4.8%，收入占比76.1%，较上个季度下降2个pct。 分地区看，二季度中国区贡献了超八成的 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团或持续受益于关键 半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026年2.1倍的市净率， 维持"中性"评级。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团 或持续受益于关键半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026 年2.1倍的市净率，维持"中性"评级。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 ...