Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][23]. Core Insights - The company has released its earnings forecast for 2025, indicating a net profit of 1.67 to 1.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.0% to 70.6%. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a potential net profit of -0.12 to +0.06 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [2][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the transition to new national standards for electric two-wheelers and maintain strong growth in its robotic lawn mower segment. The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.76 billion, 2.51 billion, and 3.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 24.4, 34.8, and 45.9 yuan [13][5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10.22 billion yuan in 2023 to 21.41 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 50.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 598 million yuan in 2023 to 1.76 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 62.4% [5]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is forecasted to decrease from 6.24 in 2023 to 2.12 in 2025, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [5]. Market Data - The target price for the stock is set at 73.10 yuan, with the current price at 51.76 yuan, suggesting a significant upside potential [6]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 3.734 billion yuan and a total share count of 72 million [7]. Business Performance - The company is experiencing a temporary profit pressure in Q4 2025 due to currency fluctuations, dividend tax provisions, and seasonal business variations. The expected net profit for Q4 is -0.27 billion yuan, a decline of 124% year-on-year [13]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is facing short-term challenges due to the new national standards, but sales are expected to recover in Q1 2026 [13]. - The robotic lawn mower segment is projected to maintain high growth, with the company accelerating its shipment pace in response to market demands [13].

Core Insights - The core objective of the company is to surpass gasoline vehicles rather than competing with domestic rivals in the electric two-wheeler market [1][2] - The company aims to evolve from a single transportation tool to an AI robotics company, creating an intelligent product ecosystem [2][6] Electric Vehicle Market Trends - The transition from internal combustion engines to electric products is seen as an inevitable trend, with electric vehicles gradually catching up to gasoline vehicles in terms of advantages [2] - The domestic two-wheeler electric vehicle market is entering a phase of stock competition, necessitating higher product quality and design standards due to new national regulations [1][2] Product Development and Technology - The company has announced a cumulative shipment of over 10 million smart electric vehicles in China, marking a new starting point for future growth [1] - New battery technology is being developed to significantly enhance energy density and reduce costs, targeting real-world ranges of 150 to 300 kilometers [2] - The company is focusing on integrating advanced safety technologies, such as millimeter-wave radar and ABS, into more models to improve safety and user experience [2][7] Global Strategy and Brand Positioning - The company is launching a dual-brand strategy with "Ninebot" and "Segway" to better serve different consumer preferences and accelerate global expansion [3][4] - The products are already available in over 100 countries, and the dual-brand strategy aims to enhance market penetration in both emerging and developed markets [3] - The company is conducting market research in Southeast Asia and Latin America to better cater to local consumer needs [4] AI and Robotics Integration - The ultimate goal is to make smart electric vehicles the mainstream choice in the global motorcycle industry, with a focus on technological innovation [6] - The company plans to launch the Lingbo OS, a comprehensive operating system for short-distance transportation, by 2025, which will integrate cloud, edge, and end capabilities [6] - Development of L2-level driver assistance capabilities for electric two-wheelers is underway, utilizing AI and camera technology for obstacle detection and avoidance [7]

Core Insights - The core objective of Ninebot is not to compete with domestic rivals but to surpass internal combustion vehicles in various aspects such as range and intelligence [1][2] - Ninebot has announced that its cumulative domestic shipment of smart electric vehicles has surpassed 10 million units, marking a new starting point for the company [1] - The company aims to evolve from a single transportation tool to an AI robotics company, creating a smart product ecosystem [2] Electric Vehicle Market Trends - The domestic two-wheeled electric vehicle market is entering a phase of stock competition, with new national standards raising quality and design requirements [1] - The transition from internal combustion engines to electric products is seen as an inevitable trend, distinguishing the 21st century from the 20th [2] Technological Innovations - Ninebot is collaborating with partners to develop next-generation battery technology aimed at achieving real-world ranges of 150 to 300 kilometers, addressing user anxiety regarding battery life [2] - The company is also focusing on enhancing safety features, including the integration of advanced technologies like millimeter-wave radar and ABS into more models [2][6] Global Strategy - Ninebot has initiated a dual-brand strategy with "Ninebot" and "Segway," planning to announce a global brand strategy by 2026 to enhance its global presence [3] - The company’s products are already available in over 100 countries, and the dual-brand strategy is expected to accelerate its globalization efforts [3] Market Expansion - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are identified as key targets for Ninebot's global strategy, with ongoing market analysis to better serve local consumers [4] AI Integration - Ninebot's ultimate goal is to make smart electric vehicles the mainstream choice in the global motorcycle industry, with a focus on technological innovation [5] - The company is advancing from electric vehicles to AI robotics, integrating core robotic technologies into its products to enhance user experience [5] Future Developments - Ninebot plans to launch the Lingbo OS, a comprehensive operating system for short-distance transportation, by 2025, which will support various electric vehicle categories [5] - The company is developing L2-level driver assistance capabilities for its two-wheeled electric vehicles, utilizing AI and cloud data for enhanced safety [6]

Core Insights - The core objective of the company is to surpass gasoline vehicles rather than competing with domestic rivals in the electric two-wheeler market [1][2] - The company aims to evolve from a single transportation tool to an AI robotics company, creating a smart product ecosystem [2] - The company has announced a dual-brand strategy with "Ninebot" and "Segway" to enhance global market presence [3] Electric Vehicle Market Trends - The electric vehicle market in China is transitioning into a phase of stock competition, with new national standards raising quality and design requirements [1] - The company believes that the replacement of internal combustion engine products with electric alternatives is an inevitable trend [2] Technological Advancements - The company is developing new battery technology in collaboration with partners, targeting real-world ranges of 150 to 300 kilometers to alleviate user anxiety regarding battery life [2] - The introduction of advanced safety technologies, such as millimeter-wave radar and ABS, is being prioritized to enhance user experience [2] Global Strategy - The dual-brand strategy aims to cater to different consumer preferences and will operate independently in marketing and channels while sharing after-sales service networks [3] - The company is focusing on emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America, conducting market analysis to better serve local consumers [4] AI and Robotics Integration - The ultimate goal is to make smart electric vehicles the mainstream choice in the global motorcycle industry, with a focus on technological innovation [4] - The company is advancing from electric vehicles to AI robotics, integrating core robotic technologies into transportation products [4] Future Developments - The company plans to launch the Lingbo OS, a comprehensive operating system for short-distance transportation, in 2025, which will enhance the smart upgrade of electric two-wheelers [5] - Development of L2-level assisted driving capabilities for electric two-wheelers is underway, utilizing AI and camera technology for obstacle detection [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ninebot Limited expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.67 billion to 1.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.04% to 70.64% [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 1.62 billion to 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of 558 million to 728 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 52.51% to 68.51% [1] - In 2024, the total profit was 1.319 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.084 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of the parent company [1] Business Growth Drivers - The substantial growth in 2025 is attributed to the continuous development of core businesses, particularly in smart short-distance transportation and service robots, alongside positive contributions from non-recurring gains [1] - The company has increased R&D investment in key products such as electric two-wheelers, electric scooters, service robots, and all-terrain vehicles, enhancing product competitiveness and customer satisfaction [1] - Sales channels have been actively expanded, significantly increasing market share, which has driven sales growth and improved profitability [1] Non-Recurring Gains - Non-recurring gains are expected to have a greater impact on net profit in 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to effective cash management of idle funds, resulting in increased returns [2] - The use of foreign exchange hedging tools has also contributed additional support to performance growth by managing currency fluctuation risks [2] Market Position and Strategy - The transition to new national standards for electric two-wheelers has been successfully completed, clearing short-term obstacles for the company [2] - The dual-brand strategy of Ninebot and Segway is being implemented to achieve synergistic operations, targeting both mass and high-end markets [3] - The company is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America, while promoting the transition from gasoline to electric motorcycles [3] Product Development - The launch of the new electric motorcycle, featuring advanced battery technology and fast charging capabilities, demonstrates the maturity of the company's supply chain [3] - The company aims to achieve a target of over 600,000 domestic electric two-wheelers in 2026, which is expected to be successfully met [3] Industry Outlook - The anti-dumping investigation by the EU into domestic lawnmowers is anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation, providing Ninebot with opportunities to expand market share post-consolidation [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 to 1.85 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.0% to 70.6% [1] - The electric two-wheeler market share has increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, ranking the company fourth in the industry [2] - The company plans to enhance its service robot business, particularly focusing on lawn mowers, which are expected to show rapid growth [3] - The company is actively responding to changes in EU policies regarding lawn mowers, emphasizing its core competitiveness and innovation [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.76 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.21X, 15.98X, and 12.61X [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 598 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.5% [6] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 25.2% in 2023 to 31.4% by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.0% in 2023 to 24.5% in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home appliance industry, specifically for white goods, black goods, and two-wheeled vehicles [1]. Core Insights - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks has slightly increased, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. The over-allocation ratio for home appliances is 0.74%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [10][9]. - The report anticipates that the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 will support domestic sales, while leading home appliance companies are expected to accelerate penetration into emerging markets such as Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, leading to steady growth in export revenues [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a Q4 market value accounting for 1.58% of total fund holdings, up by 0.23 percentage points. The number of funds holding white goods stocks has increased by 79 [18][17]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, are expected to benefit from stable performance and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [63][64][65]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance Sector - The report indicates a slight recovery in the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14% and an over-allocation ratio of 0.74% [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen a recovery in fund holdings, with a market value of 1.58% of total fund holdings, and an increase in the number of funds holding these stocks [18][17]. - The black goods sector has also experienced a slight increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.22%, up by 0.03 percentage points [28][29]. - The two-wheeled vehicle sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.74%, up by 0.08 percentage points [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - For white goods, the report recommends Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong performance and high dividend yields [63]. - In the black goods sector, companies like Hisense Visual and TCL Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership in the MiniLED field [63]. - For two-wheeled vehicles, the report suggests focusing on Ninebot, Aima Technology, and Yadea Holdings, as market demand is expected to concentrate on leading companies [63]. - In the kitchen small appliances sector, companies like Supor, Bear Electric, and Beiding Co. are recommended for their growth potential through brand expansion [63]. - The report also highlights electric tools companies such as Techtronic Industries and Greebo for their expected order growth due to rising market demand [63].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 九号公司(689009) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Title] 九号公司：业绩短期承压，两轮车结构转型， 割草机器人有望延续高增 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_S 事件：公司ummar发布y] 2025 年度业绩预告。2025 年公司预计实现归母净利润 16.70-18.50 亿元（同比增长 54.0%-70.6%），扣非归母净利润 16.20-17.90 亿元（同比增长 52.5%-68.5%）。我们取区间中值估算，则 25Q4 预计实现 归母净利润-0.27 亿元（24Q4 为 1.14 亿元），扣非归母净利润-0.94 亿元 （24Q4 为 1.25 亿元），有所承压。我们预计汇率波动等因素或对业绩表现 造成一定影响。 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Ninebot Company Company Overview - **Company**: Ninebot Company - **Industry**: Smart short-distance transportation and service robotics Key Financial Projections - **Net Profit Forecast for 2026**: Expected to be between RMB 1.85 billion and RMB 1.87 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.04% to 70.64% [2][3] - **Net Profit Excluding Non-recurring Items**: Expected to be between RMB 1.62 billion and RMB 1.709 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 52.51% to 68.51% [2][3] - **Impact of Currency Fluctuations**: Significant financial loss of approximately RMB 70 million due to RMB appreciation, compared to a gain of RMB 24 million in the same period last year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of about RMB 100 million in exchange gains [2][5] Business Performance Insights - **Sales Growth Drivers**: - Strong demand for electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) with over 80% of sales driven by this segment, showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 50% [2][7] - The scooter business (To C) is expected to continue its growth trend, while the To B segment is projected to remain flat compared to last year [2][7] - **Inventory and Order Management**: Low inventory levels at the end of 2025 led to a significant order volume in January 2026, with plans to distribute shipments around the Spring Festival [10] Strategic Initiatives - **Investment in Core Business**: Continued investment in R&D for electric two-wheelers, scooters, service robots, and all-terrain vehicles to enhance product competitiveness and customer satisfaction [4] - **Sales Channel Expansion**: Strengthening sales channels to increase market share and drive sales growth [4] - **Store Renovation Plans**: - 2026 plans to add approximately 3,000 new stores and renovate 2,000 existing stores to the 2.0 version, with a focus on improving sales performance [14] - Initial performance of 2.0 stores shows a 70% increase in efficiency compared to older versions [13] Regulatory and Market Challenges - **Impact of New National Standards**: The implementation of new national standards has significantly affected the two-wheeler industry, particularly the electric self-balancing segment, which is currently in a frozen state [6] - **EU Anti-dumping Duties**: Anticipated duties of 21% to 57% on lawnmowers have prompted the company to arrange exports in advance, aiming to complete 60%-70% of annual export volume by February 2026 [10] Future Outlook - **Product Launch Schedule**: New products are set to be released in April, June, and August 2026, including models for both electric self-balancing and e-motorcycles [15] - **Global Expansion of e-Bike**: Positive feedback from the CES event, with a focus on the U.S. market for sales, while European markets will see some new model releases later in the year [16] Additional Considerations - **Cost Management**: The company has locked in raw material purchases for the first half of the year to mitigate price increases, and employs forward foreign exchange contracts to manage currency risks [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ninebot (689009.SH), expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of RMB 1.67 billion to 1.85 billion, which represents a year-on-year growth of 54.04% to 70.64% [1] - The company is focusing on its core businesses of smart short-distance transportation and service robots, with plans for product upgrades and market expansion [1] Financial Projections - The anticipated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 1.67 billion and 1.85 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 54.04% to 70.64% [1] - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between RMB 1.62 billion and 1.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.51% to 68.51% [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen its strategic layout in two core businesses: smart short-distance transportation and service robots [1] - There will be an increase in R&D investment to enhance product iterations, including electric two-wheelers, electric scooters, service robots, and all-terrain vehicles, aimed at improving product competitiveness and user satisfaction [1] - The company is actively expanding sales channels and strengthening channel layout to significantly increase market share [1]