Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion is maintained as BUY, despite a downward revision of the target price to RMB9.9 for A-shares and HK$7.4 for H-shares [1][5][6]. Core Views - The 2024 results of Zoomlion were below expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in overseas revenue growth, a reduction in other income, and an increase in inventory turnover days. The company is still viewed positively for its structural overseas growth strategy, particularly in emerging economies [1][4]. - The management is confident in reducing inventory levels in 2025, and there are buying opportunities following the post-results pullback [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, revenue decreased by 3.4% YoY to RMB45.478 billion, while adjusted net profit slightly declined by 1.3% YoY to RMB3.521 billion. The forecast for FY25 and FY26 earnings has been revised down by 7% and 8% respectively [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 4Q24 showed a 4% YoY decline to RMB11.1 billion, with domestic revenue dropping by 18% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 14% YoY [4][7]. - The blended gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points YoY to 27.5%, driven by higher margins in overseas markets [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The revenue forecast for FY25 is set at RMB52.999 billion, with expected growth of 16.5% YoY, followed by RMB61.848 billion in FY26 and RMB69.277 billion in FY27 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase to RMB4.177 billion in FY25, RMB4.705 billion in FY26, and RMB5.229 billion in FY27, reflecting a growth trajectory despite recent challenges [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Zoomlion has low exposure to the domestic property sector, with only 13% of total sales in 2024 related to property. The company is focusing on infrastructure, wind power installation, and chemical plant construction for growth [4][6]. - Management plans to accelerate overseas market expansion and continue focusing on earth-working, mining, and agricultural machinery as growth drivers [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for A-shares is based on a 2025E P/E multiple of 19.5x, reflecting a historical average, while the H-share target price incorporates a 30% discount [5][6]. - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.5x in FY24 to 11.3x in FY25, indicating a more attractive valuation for investors [2][5].

中联重科（000157.SZ） 2024 年毛利率提升，公司经营趋势向好，股东回报优秀 公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年实现营业收入 454.78 亿元，同比减少 3.39%； 归母净利润 35.20 亿元，同比增长 0.41%（剔除股份支付费用影响后净利润同比增长 18.39%）；扣非归母净利润 25.54 亿元，同比减少 5.7%。2024 年单 4 季度营业收入 110.92 亿元，同比减少 4.05%；归母净利润 3.81 亿元，同比减少 41.42%；扣非归母 净利润 3.64 亿元，同比增加 4.86%。公司 2024 年毛利率为 28.17%，2024 年净利率 8.81%，同比提升 0.8pct。2024 年 4 季度毛利率为 27.53%，同比提升 0.6pct；2024 年净利率 4.66%，同比降低 1.5pct。2024 年公司毛利率提升明显，表明公司经营情况 趋势向好，Q4 净利率下降主要原因是受汇率波动等影响，财务费用同比增加 1.74 亿 元，同时资产处置收益同比减少 2.53 亿元。此外，公司 2024 年向全体股东每 10 股派 发现金红利 3.00 元（含税）， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.17%, indicating an improvement in operational performance, despite a decline in net profit margin in Q4 due to increased financial costs and reduced asset disposal gains [1]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit over the next few years, with projections of 5 billion yuan in 2025, 6.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 42%, 21%, and 16% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% [5]. - The gross margin improved to 28.17%, while the net profit margin was 8.81%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The earthmoving machinery segment generated revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.34% and a gross margin of 30.2%, up 2.67 percentage points [2]. - The high-altitude operation machinery segment saw a revenue increase of 19.7% year-on-year, reaching 6.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 29.7%, up 7.75 percentage points [3]. - The agricultural machinery segment experienced a remarkable growth of 122.3%, achieving revenue of 4.65 billion yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic and international markets, particularly in the earthmoving and concrete machinery sectors, with significant growth in export sales [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product portfolio and expanding its market share in both domestic and overseas markets, with a notable increase in international sales [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand and strong growth in overseas markets, which could lead to a higher valuation and growth premium [4]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to leverage its strengths in traditional product lines while developing new growth engines in emerging sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zhonglian Heavy Industry's domestic revenue and gross profit declined last year, raising concerns about whether overseas sales can drive a recovery in this year's performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhonglian Heavy Industry reported total revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while net profit was 3.52 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% [1] - Domestic sales revenue fell significantly, reaching 22.098 billion yuan, down 24.24% from 29.17 billion yuan in the previous year, with a gross margin decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2] - In Q4, the company achieved revenue of 11.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.05%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.61%, with net profit dropping 41.42% year-on-year and 55.19% quarter-on-quarter to 381 million yuan [2] Group 2: Product Performance - Revenue from core products such as concrete machinery and cranes declined, with year-on-year decreases of 6.8% and 23.35% respectively; cranes accounted for the largest revenue segment at 14.786 billion yuan, down 45.05% [2] - Agricultural machinery emerged as a highlight, with revenue growth of 122.29%, increasing from 2.092 billion yuan to 4.65 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Overseas revenue reached 23.38 billion yuan, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue, surpassing domestic revenue for the first time; this was a significant increase from 17.905 billion yuan and 38.04% in the previous year [6] - The demand for excavators, a key indicator of macroeconomic trends, showed a notable increase, with export sales in January and February totaling 10.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 28.72% [6] Group 4: Institutional Actions - The Stock Connect program saw continuous reductions in holdings of Zhonglian Heavy Industry from Q2 to Q4 last year, with a total reduction of 12.3128 million shares in Q4 [3] - Public funds displayed mixed actions, with 32 funds holding 15.8 million shares by the end of Q4, an increase of approximately 2.4 million shares from Q3 [3] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with the last update cycle peaking in 2021; the current market is closely watching for signs of recovery [4] - Analysts believe that overseas business growth is more certain compared to domestic demand, with foreign gross profit margins for major manufacturers significantly higher than domestic ones [4][6]

中联重科财报公布：海外营收首超国内，四季度净 利同比降四成 工程机械龙头中，中联重科(000157.SZ/01157.HK)率先披露了2024年成绩单。其去年营收下降但净 利实现微增。 3月24日晚，中联重科发布全年财报，该公司去年实现营业收入454.78亿元，同比下降3.39%；归属 于母公司净利润35.2亿元，同比增长0.41%。 分季度看，该公司净利出现较大波动，尤其是去年四季度，净利仅3.81亿元，环比下滑55.2%，同 比下滑41.47%；其前三季度净利润分别为9.16亿元、13.72亿元、8.51亿元。 分行业看，去年工程机械产品在中联重科业绩中的占比下降至88.74%，同比下降了9.28个百分点； 农业机械营收同比增122.29%，达到46.5亿元，占比10.2%，提升了近6个百分点。 分产品看，中联重科的工程起重机械、建筑起重机械、混凝土机械等传统优势产业地位依然稳固。 其中，35吨级、55吨级汽车吊市占率第一，履带吊收入行业第一。 其中，该公司最为王牌的起重机械产品，去年营收下滑23.35%，是该公司所有品类中营收下滑幅 度最大的产品。但这部分业务仍是中联重科除金融服务外，毛利率最高的业务， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10] Core Insights - In 2024, the company's net profit, excluding share-based payment expenses, increased by 18% year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential of emerging sectors [2] - The company achieved total revenue of 45.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, while the attributable net profit was 3.52 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% [2] - The company's overseas revenue grew by 30.6% year-on-year, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue, indicating successful international expansion [2] - Emerging business segments, particularly agricultural machinery, showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 122.3% year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 47.075 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 45.478 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 54.637 billion yuan in 2025 [2][11] - The attributable net profit is expected to rise from 3.52 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.038 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 43.1% [2][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.41 yuan in 2024 to 0.58 yuan in 2025 [2][11] Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a gross profit margin of 28.2% in 2024, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.8%, up by 0.8 percentage points [3] - The overseas gross profit margin was 32.0%, which is 8.0 percentage points higher than the domestic margin, contributing to improved profitability [3] Emerging Business Development - The company has made significant progress in emerging business sectors, with a notable increase in sales of agricultural machinery and high-altitude work machinery [4] - The domestic market for excavators has seen the company achieve a top-three position in the market share for products over 100 tons [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion RMB for the year 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.41% [2]. - The overseas market contributed significantly to the company's revenue, accounting for 51.41% of total income, with overseas revenue reaching 23.38 billion RMB, up 30.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with significant growth in high-end machinery and agricultural machinery, achieving revenues of 6.83 billion RMB and 4.65 billion RMB respectively, representing increases of 19.74% and 122.29% [3]. - The company is actively developing embodied intelligence technologies and has launched 162 new products, including 198 models of advanced robots [3]. - The company aims for high-quality growth by reducing accounts receivable and inventory, achieving a comprehensive collection rate of 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 53.235 billion RMB, 62.232 billion RMB, and 72.983 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.080 billion RMB, 6.531 billion RMB, and 8.081 billion RMB [4][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve, reaching 29.3%, 29.6%, and 29.9% over the next three years [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10] Core Insights - In 2024, the company's net profit, excluding share-based payment expenses, increased by 18% year-on-year, with significant growth in high-tech and agricultural machinery sectors [2] - The company achieved total revenue of 45.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, while the attributable net profit was 3.52 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The company's overseas revenue grew by 30.6% year-on-year, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue, indicating successful overseas expansion [2] - The traditional product lines showed a decline, with concrete machinery revenue down 6.8% and lifting machinery down 23.4%, while new sectors like agricultural machinery saw a remarkable growth of 122.3% [2][3] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 8.8%, up 0.8 percentage points [3] - The company maintained good cost control, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 8.2%, 4.9%, 0.1%, and 6.1% respectively [3] - The forecast for attributable net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 50.38 billion yuan, 60.95 billion yuan, and 73.77 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [10] Market Trends - The sales of domestic automotive cranes and crawler cranes showed a significant improvement in early 2025, indicating a stabilization trend in the market [4] - The company has achieved full coverage of excavator products from 1.5 to 400 tons, ranking among the top three in the domestic market for over 100-ton mining excavators [4] - The agricultural machinery segment is expanding rapidly, with the company holding the top position in domestic dryer sales and second in wheat machinery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan for the year 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas market contributed significantly to the company's revenue, accounting for 51.41% of total income, with overseas revenue reaching 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6% [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with significant growth in high-end machinery and agricultural machinery, achieving revenues of 6.83 billion yuan and 4.65 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19.74% and 122.29% [3]. - The company is actively developing embodied intelligence technologies and has launched 162 new products, with 198 of them being leading-edge products in the domestic and international markets [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.092 billion yuan, down 4.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.851 billion yuan, up 4.42% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - The gross profit margins for overseas and domestic markets were 32.05% and 24.06% respectively, indicating that the overseas market has a gross margin nearly 8 percentage points higher than the domestic market [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 28.17%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for gross margins to reach 29.3%, 29.6%, and 29.9% from 2025 to 2027 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 53.235 billion yuan, 62.232 billion yuan, and 72.983 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 5.080 billion yuan, 6.531 billion yuan, and 8.081 billion yuan respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.22 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 8.02 CNY [3][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 45.478 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, driven by improved domestic demand and continued growth in international markets and emerging businesses [9][10]. - The company has a strong focus on cash dividends and share buyback policies, with a planned dividend of 2.603 billion CNY for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 73.95% [9]. Revenue and Profitability - The core business segments, including cranes and concrete machinery, generated revenues of 14.786 billion CNY and 8.013 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23.35% and 6.8% [2]. - Emerging businesses, such as aerial work, earthmoving, and agricultural machinery, showed significant growth, with revenues of 6.833 billion CNY, 6.671 billion CNY, and 4.65 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.74%, 0.34%, and 122.29% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points [3]. Internationalization and Market Position - Domestic and overseas revenues were 22.098 billion CNY and 23.38 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.24% and +30.58%, marking a historical milestone where overseas revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue [2]. - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic market for its main products and is rapidly expanding its overseas business, with export revenue growing by over 35% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 53.03 billion CNY, 62.52 billion CNY, and 73.79 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16.6%, 17.9%, and 18% [9][11]. - Net profits are expected to reach 4.9 billion CNY, 6.12 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 39.2%, 24.8%, and 24.2% [9][11].