Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recovery signals in domestic demand for the engineering machinery industry, driven by policy stimulation and stock replacement demand, with a notable increase in excavator sales in early 2025 [1] - The domestic market is expected to see a steep recovery starting in 2025, with excavator sales reaching 57,501 units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% [1] - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with domestic leading manufacturers having substantial room to increase their market share compared to global leaders like Caterpillar and Komatsu, which together hold a market share of 27.1% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - XCMG's alpha is attributed to proactive internal changes since 2020, including mixed ownership reform, asset restructuring, and management changes, alongside a diversified product line that mitigates cyclical impacts [2] - XCMG maintains a leading position in various product lines such as excavators, cranes, and concrete machinery, allowing it to capture a larger market share during domestic demand recovery [2] - The mining machinery segment is expected to create a second growth curve for XCMG, driven by increased capital expenditure from overseas mining companies and improved technology and channel development [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for XCMG are projected at 101 billion, 113.8 billion, and 131.8 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits expected to be 8.1 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 25%, and 24% respectively [2] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its internal reforms, product diversification, and the anticipated stabilization of domestic demand [2]

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现收入 121.17 亿元，同比+2.92%，归母净利润 14.10 亿元，同比+53.98%， 扣非后归母净利润 8.74 亿元，同比+12.40%；25Q1 公司毛利率为 28.67%，同比提升 0.02pct，环比提升 1.14pct，净利率为 12.51%， 同比提升 3.84pct，环比提升 7.85pct。 经营分析 利润加速释放，经营质量向好。25Q1 行业挖掘机内销同比+38.3%， 出口同比+5.49%，受益于内外需共振，25Q1 公司实现收入 121.17 亿元，同比+2.92%，25Q1 公司归母净利润 14.10 亿元，同比 +53.98%，利润加速释放。公司坚持高质量发展，25Q1 公司经营性 现金流净额为 7.40 亿元，同比+140.96%。25Q1 公司存货周转天数 为 240.19 天，同比下降 10.65 天，高质量发展效果显现。 工程机械内需复苏传导至非挖板块，非土方机械内需开始回暖。 根据中国工程机械工业协会，25M3 履带起重机、工业车辆、压路 机内销分别为 138 台、10784 ...

产品实现多元化发展，积极培育新兴产业。根据公告，24 年公司 高机、农业机械分别实现68.3/46.5亿元，同比+19.74%/+122.29%， 推动农机、高机等产品多元化发展，降低周期影响。公司快速推 进具身智能等未来产业发展，开发了足式、轮式等多款具身智能 机器人。 盈利预测、估值与评级 业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现收入 121.17 亿元，同比+2.92%，归母净利润 14.10 亿元，同比+53.98%， 扣非后归母净利润 8.74 亿元，同比+12.40%；25Q1 公司毛利率为 28.67%，同比提升 0.02pct，环比提升 1.14pct，净利率为 12.51%， 同比提升 3.84pct，环比提升 7.85pct。 经营分析 利润加速释放，经营质量向好。25Q1 行业挖掘机内销同比+38.3%， 出口同比+5.49%，受益于内外需共振，25Q1 公司实现收入 121.17 亿元，同比+2.92%，25Q1 公司归母净利润 14.10 亿元，同比 +53.98%，利润加速释放。公司坚持高质量发展，25Q1 公司经营性 现金流净额为 ...