Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a target price of HKD 0.79 for Xijiao International Holdings (01765) and a "Buy" rating, suggesting that the company's cost increases have peaked and profitability may rebound, with operational efficiency expected to improve after sustained investments in education [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xijiao International Holdings reported a revenue of CNY 3.96 billion for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [2] - The net profit for the same period was CNY 390 million, while the adjusted net profit (excluding goodwill impairment and convertible bond disposal costs) was CNY 740 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The number of enrolled students in fiscal year 2025 was 291,000, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to fiscal year 2024, with a stable student structure where undergraduates accounted for 48% and vocational students for 49%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Average tuition fees increased by 6% to CNY 13,600 per academic year, while the main operating costs were controlled at CNY 2.29 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 42.1% [3] Group 3: Asset Management and Future Outlook - The company sold 8 low-efficiency educational assets, including 6 vocational colleges and 2 undergraduate colleges, to enhance operational efficiency by reducing the number of institutions and focusing on higher tuition fee-generating undergraduate programs [4] - In fiscal year 2025, despite a 35.4% increase in enrollment expenses to CNY 327 million, the adjusted net profit margin was maintained at 18.6%, with expectations for the proportion of undergraduate students to rise by 3 percentage points to 51% in fiscal year 2026, further improving profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - A new regulatory policy aimed at insurance funds is expected to inject significant capital into the A-share market, potentially releasing hundreds of billions in incremental funds and stimulating market activity [1][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies holding certain equity assets long-term, effective December 5, 2025 [1][10]. - The risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 and the China Securities Low Volatility 100 Index has been lowered from 0.3 to 0.27, while for stocks held over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, it has been reduced from 0.4 to 0.36 [10]. Group 2: Capital Release Estimates - The policy is projected to release a minimum capital scale of approximately 457 billion yuan under a neutral scenario, with potential stock investment increases of about 1,669 billion yuan if the solvency ratio remains unchanged [2][3]. - In an optimistic scenario, the potential increase in stock investment could reach 2,015 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The true potential for insurance funds entering the market lies in the systemic increase of their overall equity allocation ratio, which could represent a trillion-level space [5][7]. - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeds 15%, indicating significant room for growth towards the regulatory cap of 30% [5][6]. Group 4: Market Impact - The timing of this policy is crucial, as it may catalyze the "spring market" amid a lack of clear industrial catalysts, with supply-demand dynamics becoming a primary market concern [9]. - The policy is expected to enhance the appeal of high-dividend assets, which may become a key focus for insurance capital as their investment appetite increases [9].

摘要 2025年中以来，美国新增非农就业"断崖式"下滑，失业上行风险有所增加。美国就业市场缘何"大逆 转"、AI的"替代效应"有多大？2026年，美国"无就业的增长"会否延续？ 一、热点思考：大逆转与再平衡——2026年美国就业市场展望 （一）AI与就业：创造还是毁灭？"结构性冲击"有所体现，但整体拖累有限 AI对美国就业市场的"需求冲击"引发市场关注，但目前主要是结构性的。 美国企业AI的采用率已从2年 前的3.7%升至10%（2025年9月）；10月挑战者裁员数达15.3万个，同比提升175%，其中21.7%来自科技 行业；归纳而言，AI的结构性冲击或集中体现在三大方面：高AI暴露度行业、职场年轻群体、高薪职 位。 但整体而言，AI或并非2025年美国就业转弱的主要原因。 主要依据是：1）2023年以来，AI 采用率提升 幅度与就业增速变化的负向相关性较弱（R²= 0.09）；2）居民职业结构调整尚未出现加速迹象；3）在应 用AI的企业中，企业更倾向重新"培训"员工，而非裁员。 （二）2025年美国就业"大逆转"的主因：移民、政府裁员影响或更大 回顾2025年，美国就业市场供需双双走弱，表现为"低招聘、低 ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is expected to experience a "low-growth balance" in 2026, with a continued contraction in labor supply and a gradual stabilization in demand, maintaining low equilibrium employment levels [1][4] - The unemployment rate is likely to face upward pressure due to short-term factors such as tariff impacts, government layoffs, and the substitution effect of AI, with a threshold for triggering the "Sam Rule" estimated at approximately 4.7% [1][5] - The economic landscape is characterized by a "K-shaped" divergence, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making, as labor shortages may enhance labor share while surpluses could exacerbate economic disparities [1][5] Group 1: Employment Market Dynamics - Since mid-2025, the U.S. has seen a dramatic decline in non-farm employment, raising concerns about rising unemployment risks and the impact of AI on job markets [2] - The structural impact of AI on employment is evident but limited, with AI adoption rates increasing from 3.7% to 10% over two years, and layoffs primarily concentrated in high-exposure sectors [2][3] - The primary drivers of the employment market's reversal in 2025 include immigration policies and government layoffs, with illegal immigration net inflow decreasing by 1.6 to 2 million, explaining about 50% of the slowdown in non-farm employment [3] Group 2: Future Employment Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply is expected to continue contracting due to stringent immigration policies, while demand may stabilize as government layoffs pause and tariff impacts weaken [4] - The short-term labor demand remains a core issue, with the potential for the unemployment rate to rise, indicating a shortfall in labor demand [5] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment, balancing the need for monetary easing in the short term against potential inflation risks in the medium term due to labor market conditions [5]

二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 多数发达国家国债利率大幅上行，有色价格大涨。 当周，标普500上涨0.3%，纳指上涨0.9%；10Y美债收 益率上行12.0bp至4.14%；美元指数下跌0.5%至98.98，离岸人民币升至7.0691；WTI原油上涨2.6%至60.1 美元/桶，COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至4197.6美元/盎司。 美国公布《国家安全战略》，系统阐述特朗普政府第二任期的外交与安全优先事项。 新战略将把保护美 国国土与西半球安全置于首位。对欧洲的衰落、人口变化持批评态度，要求欧洲必须为自身国防承担主 要成本；中东重要性被下调，强调避免再次卷入长期地面战争。 美国11月ADP就业减少3.2万人，9月美国实际PCE消费环比低于市场预期。 11月，美国ADP就业减少3.2 万人，市场预期增加1万人，就业疲弱主要集中在小企业上，大型企业就业稳固；美国9月PCE通胀环比 0.3%，9月实际PCE消费环比0%，市场预期0.1%。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 （一）大类资产：多 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in non-farm employment in the U.S. since mid-2025, highlighting the rising risk of unemployment and the impact of AI on the job market [1][5][110] Group 1: AI and Employment - AI adoption in U.S. companies has increased from 3.7% two years ago to 10% as of September 2025, with a notable rise in layoffs, particularly in the tech sector [1][5][12] - The structural impact of AI is primarily felt in high-exposure industries, among younger workers, and in high-paying positions, but overall, AI is not the main cause of the employment downturn [1][5][12] - The correlation between AI adoption rates and employment growth is weak, indicating that AI's impact on job losses may be limited [26][29][33] Group 2: Causes of Employment Decline in 2025 - The decline in U.S. employment in 2025 is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with illegal immigration net inflow decreasing by 1.6 to 2 million, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown [2][50][52] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts are significant contributors to the employment decline, with government sector influences accounting for 37% of the non-farm employment slowdown [2][62][63] - The employment growth in tariff-sensitive sectors has slowed by two-thirds compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market [2][62][63] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The labor supply in the U.S. is expected to continue contracting in 2026, while demand may stabilize, maintaining low levels of equilibrium employment [3][83][88] - Short-term unemployment risks remain high due to potential triggers from tariffs, government shutdowns, and AI's ongoing impact on job replacement [3][96][100] - The economic landscape is characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making as labor shortages may increase labor share while surpluses could lead to economic disparities [3][100]

Core Points - The 2025 Fifth "21st Century Gold Medal Analyst" awards were announced, covering 33 industry analyst awards and 8 special awards, reflecting trends in traditional and emerging sectors like banking, non-bank finance, real estate, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The special awards recognize institutions and individuals for their significant contributions in areas such as financial research, think tank studies, ESG research, overseas research, and influential brokerage research [1] Industry Awards - The awards included categories for various sectors, with notable winners such as: - **Banking**: First place went to GF Securities, followed by Zheshang Securities and Dongwu Securities [3][5] - **Strategy Research**: First place awarded to GF Securities, with Guotai Junan Securities and Tianfeng Securities following [3] - **Fixed Income**: Top honors went to Huachuang Securities, with Caitong Securities and Industrial Securities in the next positions [4] - **Real Estate and Construction**: GF Securities ranked first, followed by Shenwan Hongyuan and Changjiang Securities [8] Special Awards - The special awards recognized: - **Best Research Institution for Financial Articles**: Shenwan Hongyuan Research [16] - **Best Think Tank Research Institution**: Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute [17] - **Best ESG Research Institution**: Nanhua Futures Research Institute [17] - **Best Overseas Research Institution**: CITIC Securities Research Development Department [17] Individual Awards - Individual awards included: - **Influential Brokerage Research Institute Director**: Long River Securities [16] - **Best Chief Economist for High-Quality Development**: Li Xunlei from Zhongtai Securities [15] - **Growth Analyst**: Multiple analysts from various firms recognized [15]

Group 1 - The core message of the meeting emphasizes the need for the new leadership of the China Securities Association to enhance member recognition, cohesion, and participation to improve collaborative governance and shared effectiveness [1] - The eighth member congress of the China Securities Association elected new leadership, including Zhu Jian as the president and several other industry representatives as executive vice presidents and directors [2] - The newly elected leadership includes prominent figures from various securities firms, indicating a diverse representation within the association [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of the association's role in promoting high-quality development in the capital market through a first-class investment banking and investment institution framework [1] - The election results reflect a strategic move towards strengthening the association's governance structure by involving industry representatives in key positions [2] - The new leadership aims to foster a collaborative environment among members to enhance the overall effectiveness of the association [1][2]

Core Points - The eighth member conference of the China Securities Association was held on December 6, where the new leadership was announced [1] - Zhu Jian from Guotai Junan Securities was appointed as the Executive Director and President [1] - Wu Yunhao from the China Securities Association was appointed as the Executive Director and Vice President [1] Group 1 - The new leadership includes several prominent figures from major securities firms, such as Liu Cheng from CITIC Securities and Lin Chuanhui from GF Securities, who were appointed as Executive Directors and Vice Presidents [1] - Other notable appointments include Liu Jian from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Zhou Yi from Huatai Securities, Zou Yingguang from CITIC Securities, Huo Da from China Merchants Securities, Zhang Nashan from Guosen Securities, Zeng Shan from Yimeng Co., and Chen Liang from China International Capital Corporation [1] - Supervisory roles were filled by Wang Sheng from Galaxy Securities as Chairman and Su Junliang from Industrial Securities as Vice Chairman [2]